Jose Bautista in: The Race to 50!

Check out a couple of snippets from this news story, lifted from ESPN.com, courtesy of the Associated Press:

BALTIMORE -- Jose Bautista hit his major league-leading 47th home run Wednesday night, tying the Toronto Blue Jays club record set in 1987 by George Bell.

...

Bautista began the year with 59 career homers.

What an amazing display of power we've seen from this erstwhile journeyman utility player, am I right? And totally (if you'll pardon the pun) out of left field. (NO! You shouldn't pardon the pun. That was unacceptable. Or would be if Bautista didn't play primarily left field last year before moving to right field this season...)

Before 2010 Bautista had never hit more than 16 homers in a season. In this season alone, he has hit 44% of his total career home runs, spanning part of 7 major league seasons. Put another way, in 2010 so far, Bautista has hit nearly 80% (79.6%) of his home run total from 2004-09. In short, this year we're seeing a completely different version of Jose Bautista than in years past.

It's increasingly likely that Bautista will become the first player to reach 50 home runs since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder both reached the milestone. A 50-homer season from Bautista will also call to mind one of my favorite blasts from the past, Brady Anderson, who reached 50 homers out of nowhere in 1996.

Granted, Anderson had played regularly for 4+ years and had hit 72 home runs before his 50-homer season, and would go on to hit 88 more after it, despite never hitting even half as many in any other single season. So, based on the evidence, the forecast for Bautista's power having any sort of longevity is pretty bleak.

What's causing this power surge? Steroids? Perhaps. But we know people are being tested, since people are being suspended. So wouldn't it be risky to start juicing in this day and age? Maybe Bautista's simply gotten into a season-long groove and every swing feels like a winner. Or maybe he's getting lucky in terms of what pitches he's seen. Or maybe all of the above.

This scenario brings up an interesting question: a marginal player, not known for having a lot of power, all of a sudden amasses obscene home run totals over a single season. How are the powers-that-be (regarding P.E.D. testing) likely to react? Would they look the other way in an effort to keep the fairytale alive for just a little while longer? Or would they pounce on the red flag and demand proof of authenticity?

I think the testing is supposed to be random, so this whole line of questioning might be moot. Although I'm sure there's a way to get a back-channel steroid test done on whoever and whenever one wants. CONGRESS ran the investigations, for crying out loud. I'm sure they know how to get things done. And, I mean, the Players' Union doesn't have to know, you know what I'm sayin'?

But what would YOU do if you had the authority to run tests at your own discretion? And what do you think SHOULD be done? Is it important to find out the truth in the case of massive outliers? Or should we just sit back and trust in the system we have in place? ... food for thought...