Speed Never Goes Into a Slump...

Ever hear an announcer say that? I have. Was it confusing to you? It was to me. Until I saw it in action. What just happened in the Angels vs. Tigers game is a perfect example.

Austin Jackson, Detroit's rookie centerfielder, lays down a perfect bunt that just died off the end of the bat a few feet down the third base line. Angels catcher Mike Napoli tries to make a play: he overruns it a little, expecting it to keep rolling, lunges out with his glove, grabs the ball, makes a quick transfer and a strong throw... but unfortunately the throw was aimed at the ground just wide of the first baseman, and Jackson gets to second. Jackson made it to second, and was credited with a base hit, while Napoli was charged with an error.

Now, Jackson wasn't necessarily in a slump, as he came into the game hitting .311, but the point is: speed always gives you another way to get on base. If you're fast, you can drop a bunt down and hope to beat it out... no matter what your batting average/on base percentage happens to be at the time. And it's the curious case of slumps that if you get on base in any way - be it a line drive or a walk or a bloop single - it helps you get out of the slump. Like John Lennon said: it's all in your mind.

So Jackson's great speed allowed him to get to first, and Napoli's failed throw to first allowed him to advance to second. But speed on the basepaths is a double-edged sword - no sooner had Johnny Damon stepped into the batter's box, but Jackson breaks for third... and is thrown out by Napoli: 2-5 caught stealing.

So after screwing up a play at first base, Mike Napoli gets a chance to redeem himself... or did he? Replays show that, although the throw clearly beat Jackson to the base, Angels third baseman Brandon Wood, never actually tagged the would-be basestealer out. But apparently, for the umpire, seeing that the fielder has the ball before the runner arrives at the base is enough to call the runner out.

Unjust? Certainly! Derek Jeter had a similar issue with a similar (failed) tag by Scott Rolen last year.

Likely to change any time in the future? Almost certainly not. This seems to be a theme with umpires, that they let fielders get away with "shortcuts" - such as the shortstop not quite toe-tapping second base as he completes a double play. But as frustrating as these gaffes/allowances are, it used to be much worse. Watching the occasional MLB Network old-timey game preview, those umps in the '70s and '80s let players get away with much more than they do now. And not just fielders: you know those borderline check-swing calls nowadays, where the first/third base ump will call a strike if the bat just barely sneaks across the plate? Back in the day, those were pretty much exclusively called balls. And they call this making progress.

Speaking of speed, Reggie Willits just showed off his speed in center field for the Angels, barely reaching a sinking line drive off the bat of Magglio Ordonez... or did he just trap it? No one can really know. I guess it's better than doing the whole thing with computers...

Grand Slams and Guitar Licks: Dodgers vs. Giants 4/16/10

Hey, did you see that guy from Colorado pitched a no-hitter last night? Exciting stuff. And Cal Ripken feels slighted by the Orioles? For no apparent reason, according to Peter Angelos? This is all great stuff for the Macro-Baseball world, but two nights ago I spent some time observing and absorbing details from the Micro-Baseball world. Here's a rundown of what happened.

The Commute on the LA freeways wasn't all that bad - it's just that I had to leave so late from work that I missed the entire first inning. I was close enough that as I walked up I could hear the stadium erupt after Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier's back-to-back home runs. The preferred parking pass helped (shout out to StubHub with their cool packages, and to my friend who put the whole thing together), because it let me off right next to our seats (Loge Level, down the left field line, just foul of the foul pole). But even so, when I got in the stadium, it was already 3-0 Dodgers.

But the excitement soon started up again as Ethier hit a grand slam in the second inning! The crowd goes wild! Everyone's on their feet cheering! High fives all around with the new friends I made in the stands! It was a slam indeed, and a grand one at that.

As the dust settles, I sit back down and take stock of the game so far: 7-0 Dodgers. The Giants have yet to record a hit. And my friends have yet to arrive. Their plan was to take the Metro from the Valley to Downtown, and then take a free Dodger Stadium shuttle from there. But a late start and unexpected gameday traffic slowed them down, and they didn't show up until the 4th.

I know public transit would be great for traffic into/out of downtown, and a light rail down Wilshire would revolutionize beach traffic. But what about the instant rise in crime, such as what the Baltimore suburbs experienced with the introduction of their rail system. Plus it takes fans over an hour to get to the game!

By the time my friends did get there, Manny had already left the game. It's as if he asked his teammates, "Are we really gonna let them score more than 7 runs? No? Okay, then, I want out." But I later learned from Inside Sources that Manny has had some quad trouble since their series in Pittsburgh. I guess it's as good a time to give him some rest as any.

Padilla's no-hitter lasted until we got up to get beers. ($12.25 for a large beer?!?!?!?!!!? It would have been cheaper at the actual counter rather than the express lane, but even $10 would have been more than extravagant.) But he got himself his "Quality Start" by getting thru 7 innings while allowing 3 runs or fewer. He looked good, hitting 93-94 on his fastball with his big slow curve working very well. He even pulled out his knuckle-esque looper, which topped out at about 59 mph. It's just that he works so insufferably slow that I was surprised that the nine-inning affair didn't last much longer than three hours.

During the 7th-inning stretch, we were graced by a virtuoso performance of "God Bless America" by none other than legendary guitarist Slash of Guns N' Roses! He had a backwards baseball cap on in place of his signature top hat, but his axe sounded just the same as ever. Jack Nicholson may go to every Lakers game, but the only place to catch rock gods in action is Chavez Ravine.

Things got a little rocky for the Dodgers' pen after Slash's performance, as starter turned failed-starter turned (soon to be failed) reliever Russ Ortiz gave up two runs and two additional baserunners before coming out of the game. Those runners scored (plus one more) when Ramon Troncoso, who came in to bail out Ortiz, gave up a homer. I don't even remember who hit it, that's how eager we all were to see this thing over with. But our boys in blue hung on to beat the hated rival Giants in the two teams' first meeting of the year.

Walking out of the ballpark, to the strains of the Dodgers' victory song - Randy Newman's "I Love LA" - I was reminded of why Tommy Lasorda refers to Dodger Stadium as "Blue Heaven on Earth."

Live VIEWING OF A GAME!

I recently made arrangements to see my first live game of the 2010 season: Dodgers vs. Giants, the first time the teams will meet in '010. Since I'm neither hip enough to be on Twitter nor savvy enough to own a smartphone, I won't be sending out real time updates from the stadium. Instead, I'll just sit back, relax, take in the sights/sounds/smells, and try to catch a Manny Ramirez foul ball.

Before I go to a game, I like to build up as much background information as I can. That way I'll have all the trends, slumps, streaks, and storylines at my fingertips so I don't have to devote valuable energy to thinking while I'm at the ballpark - I feel like I'm not truly comfortable unless I'm multitasking, but trying to do too many things at once (watch the game, eat a hot dog, AND rack my brain to try and remember Edgar Renteria's batting average) can get a little hectic. So here's a rundown.

Who's Hot:

- The Dodgers' outfield: Now that Ethier's back from a minor ankle injury, the Dodgers outfield is hitting .369 with 5 HR and 24 RBI over a combined 21 games. All three have OPS's over 1.000. And with Friday's game the first of a three game series against the hated rival Giants, AND taking place after an off-day, you can bet that all three will be in the lineup.

- The Giants' infield: Of the four guys around the horn, first baseman Aubrey Huff is the only one with an average below .340. If you count catcher Bengie Molina, they look even better: Molina's been hitting the ball at a .455 clip over the first < 2 weeks. They're kind of a motley crew of veterans, but if they continue hitting, they're a fine group - just don't plan on building a franchise around them.

Who's Not:

- Either starting pitcher. Vicente Padilla shocked the world when he was named the Dodgers' Opening Day starter, and shocked far fewer citizens when he faltered in his first two starts. Not that Padilla is a bad starter - it's just that he's not the guy who's ever really projected the "number 1 starter" mentality (if that even exists). But it's becoming clear that the numbers placed on starting pitchers in the rotation (barring your clear "No. 1's" such as Lincecum, Greinke, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.) matter less than who ends up pitching the most effective innings.

Todd Wellemeyer had exactly one decent full season as a starter, and it came during a period (2008 with the Cardinals) when maverick manager Tony LaRussa had the maverick idea to play fast and loose with the pitchers on his staff. Veteran late reliever Braden Looper hadn't started a game in his MLB career until 2007 under LaRussa. Ditto Adam Wainwright - just replace "veteran" with "young and promising." At the same time, the Cardinals' closer - Ryan Franklin - was just recently converted from a starter in 2006 (by Philadelphia and Cincinnati combined).

My point is, it's not out of the question to suggest that Wellemeyer's out of his element starting games. Don't get me wrong, he's a fine fifth starter when your top four are Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez. But Giants fans shouldn't have a high degree of optimism when he pitches.


Rest assured I'll let everyone know what happens during the game... not in real-time, but not necessarily in fake-time either.

Liveblogging 4/11/10 - A's vs. Angels (_Again!_)

Here's Dallas Braden pitching again, after striking out a career-high 10 batters in his first start of the season. He's given up 2 runs, both in the first inning, one on a Bobby Abreu homer. The A's scored one on an Adam Rosales homer (in his first at-bat of the year, no less. And he just totally sprinted around the bases. Home run trots are kind of unbecoming utility infielders.)

So Rosales starting at second base for the A's. This moves Mark Ellis (who's had a very hot first week) to DH, giving Chavez a day off. Also resting is catcher Kurt Suzuki, and in his place is former Cub Jake Fox. A catcher in the minors, Fox has a major league ready bat, but he never really had a natural position. He's not athletic enough to handle third base regularly, and he didn't play that well at first. When the A's demoted Jack Cust to the minors, I had hopes that Fox might garner the lion's share of at-bats at DH. But then I saw that they're putting him back behind the plate. Which makes sense - catcher is one of the hardest positions from which to get good offense, and Fox is one of the most potent offensive players on the A's this year. You've got to optimize the value you're getting for your roster spots.

The economy of baseball is something else I'm learning a lot about. In nine innings, you only get 27 outs in which to score all your runs, so you have to really economize your outs. That's why on-base percentage is so important - because it measures how many times you don't make an out.

You only have 25 players on your roster, so you have to make the most of them in terms of which players can play which positions. For example: carrying a LOOGY who will only pitch 1/3 of an inning (1/27th of a game) at most per appearance isn't very economical. Carrying a bench player (Mike Sweeney) who can only play DH and a little bit of first base (on a good day) when you've already got two players (Ken Griffey & Milton Bradley) whose primary position is DH, isn't particularly economical.

Pitchers nowadays are only allowed to throw 100 - 120 pitches tops per outing, so if you want to pitch into the 7th or 8th innings, you're going to have to economize your pitches. Throwing a lot of pitches out of the strike zone to try and get opposing batters to chase - not particularly economical.

Speaking of pitch-economics, Angels starter Joe Saunders has thrown 90 pitches over 6 innings, and has allowed just one hit - the Rosales homer. The score is now 3-1 Halos, as a couple of singles (Erick Aybar and Abreu) and a sac fly (Torii Hunter) got another one on the board. Speaking of which, is there an echo in here? As soon as I typed that, Ryan Sweeney and Kevin Kouzmanoff strung together a couple of singles, then Mark Ellis's double got a run in. And they're still threatening as Joe Saunders comes out of the game with no outs.

Now it's time for the unsung heroes of a baseball team: the relief pitchers. If you doubt the importance of middle relievers, just see what happened to the Dodgers earlier today, or the A's last night. But if there's an RP to rise to the occasion, it's Kevin Jepsen, with his 97 mph fastball and good hard breaking stuff. And if there's a batter who I really want to come through, it's Jake Fox, who hasn't had a hit yet in two games this season. Let's see what happens.

Oops: after working the count to 2-2, Fox strikes out swinging. But, never fear, Adam Rosales come up, takes the first pitch he sees (a fastball right down the middle) and lines it the opposite way for a 2-run single. Bam! A's take the lead. Good effort wasted by Saunders. Jepsen giving up his second high-importance run in as many games. Things are starting to fall apart for the Red Menace.

Speaking of the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim," one of the cutaways coming back from commercial was a shot from a camera in a car driving on the 110 freeway. But here's the funny thing: the car was driving north on the 110 out of downtown LA... in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of Anaheim, where the Angels play! I've got a not-newsflash for you: Anaheim is not Los Angeles. They're not even in the same county. I mean, the OC used to be part of LA County, until it split off in 1889, but that was over 120 years ago. Get real, Angels, and stop trying to take advantage of a culture (and a TV market) that's not yours by right.

And who's in to protect that slim lead for the A's? Rookie Tyson Ross out of Berkeley, CA, 2nd round draft pick in 2008. He's got a grand total of 33 innings in the minors, none of them above class AA. He made his debut last Wednesday, and pitched well. He throws 93-95 using only his upper body. I mean, it's like he doesn't even push off the rubber at all. But if it ain't broke... he got threw the 7th 1-2-3, including strikeouts of Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood.

And, wow, deja vu all over again, as Scot Shields comes on in relief of Jepsen for the second night in a row. He promptly gives up a single and a stolen base to Rajai Davis on a botched pitch-out. Then Daric Barton lays down a perfect sac bunt to move Davis over to third. The A's never used to sacrifice that often, but this is a good thing: with one out, that runner on third can score on any flyball to the outfield or even a soft ground out, even with the infield in.

The only thing he can't score on is a walk, which Ryan Sweeney just drew. And I know it's important to get on base however you can and not make outs and all that, but while a walk begets a baserunner, it also begets a double play possibility. And then the inning is over and the run doesn't score. This is one reason why walks, as useful as they are, are also more frustrating than hits.

But of course, all of this is moot when Sweeney gets thrown out trying to steal second. Now Kouzmanoff has to get a base hit to score the run, whereas before the Caught Stealing, he would have just had to elevate a ball to the outfield. See, this is why baseball is so fun to watch if you pay attention: the situational dynamics are so rich, and they change every single pitch.

Meanwhile, Kouz had a great at-bat, working an 11-pitch walk after falling behind in the count 0-2. Kouzmanoff is a consummate hitter, but one who you'd like to see batting 5th or 6th rather than clean-up.

Ooh, yeah! and Mark Ellis beats out an infield single to get the A's a (hopefully not needed) insurance run. Well, the instant replay shows different, but the ruling on the field stands and now it's a 2-run ballgame. That chases Scot Shields, and brings in Brian Stokes (newly acquired from the Mets) who walks Jake Fox to load the bases. Now bench player Rosales has a chance to make this a truly heroic game. Well, it's not necessarily heroic to walk in a run, but it gets the job done: 6-3 A's.

The two walks in a row prompts a visit from the pitching coach. Did you hear about that umpire complaining about how slowly the Red Sox and Yankees play when they play each other? I think a lot of what makes the game slower these days are unrestricted trips to the mound by pitching coaches. Also so many pitching changes and timeouts. Commissioner Selig put together a 14-man committee to look at on-the-field operations, but who's to say they'll come up with anything.

Well, another base hit, another run. Now another inning for youngster Tyson Ross, who promptly walks to the leadoff hitter. Now it's Abreu, and trouble. Or not: double play, and Angels are down to four more outs in the game.

Wow, this is kind of rambly. I'll have to trim my liveblogging style if I want to produce anything remotely readable.

Ooh, another guy who made his MLB debut this year: Bobby Cassevah. His name sounds like a type of melon. But he hasn't pitched like a melon: decent numbers as a reliever in the minors. He actually threw two innings for the A's in Spring Training, but then was offered back to the Angels because of the crazy rules of the Rule-5 draft. Maybe this blog will be a good excuse for me to research them and write an explanation. And good riddance to Cassevah, as he allows two more runs against his former (if only briefly) club.

And Tyson Ross going for his third inning - talk about economics. The A's are currently carrying a 7-man bullpen: Ross and Chad Gaudin are the longmen, Craig Breslow and Jerry Blevins are lefties, Brad Ziegler and Edwar Ramirez are righties, and Andrew Bailey is the closer. When Michael Wuertz (one of the best setup men in the game last year) and Joey Devine (a former competitor for the closer job) come back from the DL, the A's will have one nasty bullpen.

Well, that's that: Ross finishes out the game and earns the three-inning save, despite giving up a home run to Juan Rivera. Nine innings, and about a ba-thousand words later, I'm signing off.

Liveblogging 4/11/10 - Dodgers vs. Marlins

What's up with this liveblogging, you may ask? Well, I've decided I need to limit the scope of this blog. Trying to meaningfully cover everything that goes on around the major leagues (or at least everything interesting that happens) was just too much for me. So for the moment, I'm only focusing on immediate sensory input - namely, games I'm watching.

So let me jump right into the Dodgers/Marlins game at the end of the fifth inning. Charlie Haeger, the knuckleballer who was recently named the Dodgers' "fifth starter,"* has been relatively dealing. He's struck out 11 batters over 5 with his nasty dancer. But he's allowed two of those strikeouts to reach base on a dropped third strike. (But he just picked one of them off, so that cancels out.) And he allowed a big 3-run homer by Jorge Cantu. So now it's 4-3 Dodgers.

---

Fast forward to the 9th inning. Circumstances beyond my control caused me to miss the second half of this game. Thus I have no idea how Haeger fared or how it became 6-5 Marlins.

Leo Nunez is now in to try and save it for the Fish. He just walked Russell Martin to lead off the inning, who was pinch-hitting in the 9th spot. Oops, then he struck out Rafael Furcal looking for the first out.

Nunez just recently broke out as a "closer." With Kansas City he was a decent spot starter for a short season, then a pretty good reliever, despite not striking anybody out. In Florida in 2009, they had him pitch at the end of games and he racked up 26 saves with a pedestrian K/BB ratio.

This outing so far is in line with his core numbers: a walk, two strikeouts, and a single. Now the Dodgers have 1st and 3rd with two outs and James Loney at the plate. Soft groundout, and the game is over.

Now it's time to check the gameday (while the A's/Angels game is on TV in the background) to see the big picture ramifications of this game for our boys in blue...

Turns out the Dodgers manufactured another run in the 6th against Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez with a Sac fly. In the bottom of the 6th, the Marlins answered with an unearned run against Haeger.

Then in the 7th, veteran Jeff Weaver comes in and blows the lead by giving up a big double to Jorge Cantu (what a day: 5 RBI on the game). Clay Hensley and Leo Nunez shut down the Dodgers, and the rest is history.

So at least Haeger didn't totally melt down towards the end. I'd really like to see him trotted out there every fifth day, but he has to prove that he can keep his composure.

As far as Jeff Weaver giving up a couple of runs, that's to be expected. It happens to every reliever once in a while. I don't know if he's the right guy for that situation though. A former starter, Weaver strikes me more as a long-relief kind of guy - someone who can eat up a few lower-leverage innings, rather than someone who can come in sharp and get guys out immediately. But with both extra-veteran Ortiz's (Russ and Ramon), long-relief is pretty covered.

Maybe Weaver will bear down later in the season. And once Ronald Belisario gets some time to build up his strength (after missing most of spring training with visa problems) he'll pick up some of that slack. That would be quite a trio of Latino relievers with long awesome names: Troncoso, Belisario, and Montaserios. These guys setting up Sherrill and Broxton with your choice of veteran long reliever would be a formidable 'pen.

That's it for this game. Now it's time to catch up with the A's and the Angels...

Liveblogging 4/10/10 - A's vs. Angels

One thing I've learned about baseball this season:

Pitchers don't have as many "pitches" as they do in a video game.

When you plug in a game like All-Star Baseball '01 or MVP '05, each pitcher generally has at least 4 pitches:

the fastball
the change-up
the curveball
and the slider

Those were the four basic pitches. Sometimes a pitcher had a 2-seam fastball, usually slightly slower than the 4-seamer, but with more break. This could either be a fifth pitch or in place of the change or a breaking pitch. Then there's the specialty pitches - the cutter, the splitter, the knuckleball, etc.

But what I've learned from watching baseball this season (and with cool stuff like pitch f/x) is that pitchers don't have nearly as many "pitches." Or, at least, they don't throw nearly as many pitches.

Let's take this game with the A's and the Angels. Ben Sheets has thrown a straight fastball, topping out at 92. It doesn't have too much movement, but he throws it up, gets hitters to chase it up in the zone, creating a lot of strikeouts and flyballs.

This is what you might call a "rising fastball." It doesn't really rise; the truth is it just drops less than a regular pitch. The backspin on it makes it follow a straighter path than a ball thrown the same distance with no spin. Like a knuckleball. That has basically no spin (only 2 or 3 full rotations in 60-ft., 6-in) - and that drops a heck of a lot.

And he's got a big curveball. He can throw it slow (~71 mph), with a more looping motion, or faster (~78 mph), which gives it a sharper bite.

And that's all he's thrown, pretty much. In some of the early at-bats, he threw only fastballs, changing nothing but the location. Later he would mix in the curve, but only in certain situations.

Just two pitches, until the third time through the lineup. (4th inning) Now I just saw him throw a couple of changeups but neither in a high-leverage count.

In the fifth, Sheets started throwing his fastball slightly differently, to give it more break. So much so that mlb.com's gameday feature described the pitch as a "sinker." But in reality, it's just a fastball thrown differently (or so it appears).

Jered Weaver has a fastball he can throw two different ways. He can throw it "straight" at around 92, or he can have it "ride," toward right handed hitters, at around 89. He has an average curve at ~71 and a tough slider at ~80. He also mixed in a changeup later in the game.

That's four or five distinct pitches. And he can throw them all well and with command. That's pretty high quality.

Now Sheets's fastball is not going as fast and it's staying in the wrong parts of the strike zone (i.e. right in the middle, rather than riding up), so it's getting hit. The curveball still has good break, and he's locating it well. And he's throwing more changeups.

He has still given up a rate of one double per inning. But he just got out of a jam (1st and 2nd with one out) by inducing a double play.

And now in for the Angels: Kevin Jepsen. He's going to pitch the 7th inning. Wow he throws gas. 94 pretty effortlessly, can dial it up to 97. Throws an effective curveball at 82. It's almost too fast to be a curveball. It's almost like a slow slider. But then he throws a fast slider at 89-90 mph. This guy has pretty devastating stuff. Maybe that's why he went to the Olympics.

Sheets is out and who's in? Jerry Blevins. A lefthander with an almost polite style of pitching. He doesn't have what you might call a cold stare (Andy Pettitte) or even a young kid's dazed sense of confidence (Tim Lincecum). He just stands up there calmly and does his job - with a low-90s fastball, an "off-speed pitch" (it has the break of a changeup, a sinker, and a slider all in one), and a slow low-70s curveball. He got through the 7th without incident.

Now for the Angels it's Scot Shields. He used to be an amazing setup man, but last year he totally lost his edge and had a 6.62 ERA. He was then placed on the DL.

A's threaten: Daric Barton draws a walk. He's turning into a get-on-base-with-soft-hits type of machine (strong like squirrel). Ryan Sweeney, Cliff Pennington, these are similar types of players. Sweeney just placed the ball well for a double. But it was still a pretty soft hit. We need more players who are strong like bear.

...like Kevin Kouzmanoff, whose name makes him sound like a Russian genetically engineered weapon during the cold war. And he plays like it. Quick, Compact swing that generates a lot of power. And he plays well in the field.

But he just grounded out up the middle. It scores a run, but Aybar turns quickly and gets Sweeney trying to go from second to third! Good play, on both ends. Sweeney couldn't stay on second, or Aybar might have gone for the runner at home. And you still have a baserunner.

Who could score if Kurt Suzuki could put a charge into it. But he can't. He can only ground sharply to third to end the inning.

But the inning is over and the A's have the lead. Let's see if Blevins will stay out there for another inning in a tie ballgame.

Gotta watch the bottom of the 8th to find out.

---

Well, it turns out that's all I'm gonna get to see of the game. Because I screwed up the DVR, I didn't catch the last couple of innings of the game. I watched the late-night replay, but it wasn't the same, because I already knew the outcome...

Anyway, the point is, paying attention to the actual variety of pitches employed by today's hurlers has really taught me a lot about the game.

Opening Day Thoughts

So many games, so much sensory input. I don't even know where to start. It's times like these I wish I were a full-time base-blogger (read: even more of a nerd than I already am) so that I could actually take some time to let this stuff sink in and form some meaningful conclusions. But as it stands now, I have to set aside most of the day for such non-baseball related activities as work and friends and personal relationships. But there's at least some time to jot down some quick observations.

1. Everything you heard about Jason Heyward was true. Did you see how he hit a home run in his first major league at-bat? The third youngest player ever to do so? He's a total beast. I'm glad that the Braves put him on their opening day roster, even though they probably would have benefited as a franchise if they sent him to the minors for a couple of months.

Why, you may ask, would the Braves want to delay the arrival of such a great player who's obviously major league ready? The reason is free agency. I don't know all the details, so I might get some of this wrong. But the general idea is that a player is eligible for free agency after six years of major league service. But after just three years, a player can be eligible for salary arbitration, where he'll usually see a hefty increase in his salary. However, a player can be eligible as a "super two" player if he plays his first two seasons all the way through.

So as it stands now, if Heyward remains on the big league roster all of this year and next year, as expected, he will be eligible as a super two player. If the Braves gave him a little "seasoning" (read: stalling time) in the minors, as the Orioles did last year with Matt Wieters, they could have avoided negotiating with their future franchise player for a whole 'nother year.

I guess the Braves brass think Heyward is special enough to make the statement of putting him in the lineup on Opening Day '10.

2. Everything you heard about Roy Halladay was true. Did you see how he totally shut down the Nationals? I mean, they are the Nationals. But 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts is impressive any way you spin it. It will remain to be seen if pitching in a bandbox such as Citizen's Bank Park will adversely affect his stats. But until then, we'll enjoy watching him dominate.

3. Everything you heard about Albert Pujols was true. Wow. Two home runs. He's currently projected to hit 324 home runs on the year. Aching back doesn't seem to be giving him much trouble does it?

4. Errors undo the A's. After changing the club philosophy to focus on pitching and defense, they made four miscues (including not one but two throwing errors trying to catch Chone Figgins stealing not once but twice) and a key missed throw by new third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff that allowed the Mariners to score the go-ahead run. Granted the A's never had the lead in the game, but Ben Sheets was able to keep pace with Felix Hernandez, until his defense threw away any chance of winning the game.

And now that Cliff Lee is hurt, Ian Snell is the M's no. 2 pitcher? This is one of the reasons why I'm not as bullish on the Mariners as everyone else seems to be.

That's it for today. Still trying to sort everything out in my head.

OPENING DAY!!!!1

So in case you guys didn't notice, BASEBALL STARTED LAST NIGHT! HOLY COW, DID YOU SEE THE YANKEES AND THE RED SOX?!?!?! THEY PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE!

JORGE POSADA, ANCHORING MY FANTASY TEAM! WAY TO GO!

I'll be posting pretty regularly once the whole Opening Day experience has had some time to sink in. For now, I'm just gonna wait for tonight, then sit back and let my DVR take me on a journey through the not four but FIVE nationally broadcasted games!

Let's play ball! WOO!

Pitching Rotations: Preview vs. Reality

One of the distinct joys of Baseball's off-season is the release of the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue. Even though it comes out just days before the new season starts - in order to feature the most accurate and up-to-date rosters and predictions - nothing compares to the excitement and anticipation that comes from poring over the lineups and rotations that are likely to grace the field this season.

For the rest of the season, this issue becomes a great reference resource for checking back on the experts' expectations of how the season will go down. In terms of predictions, they usually just reproduce the standings from last year, with one or two notable exceptions (this year it was that the Rockies would beat the Dodgers in the NL West).

The real gold from the issue comes in the form of projected lineups and pitching rotations. For the whole first month or so of the season, I rarely watch games without referring back to the issue to see how well the projections hold up, before real life sets in and the status quo changes. I particularly like the magazine format because it displays such a crystallized view of the future. Everything's put down in ink, which forces the writers to be accountable for their work. It's also nice to have something to hold in your hands, in this increasingly electronic age.

In my effort to "widen my gaze" and pay attention to the broad scope of things, I am especially interested in predicted pitching rotations. Seeing how the on-paper versions stack up to reality definitely takes patience, because it takes five starts to get one time through the rotation. Also, so much can change between starts that a five-starter rotation rarely stays the same for a long time.

Pitching Rotations are also interesting to cover because there seems to be a dearth in starting pitcher depth lately. Coming into the season, nearly every team in the majors was struggling to find a proven "fifth starter." This was such an epidemic that my favorite (or, second-favorite, after myself) Baseball blogger, Rob Neyer, devoted a whole series to "Fifth Starter Watch." Most of the spots throughout the season will turn out to be more or less revolving doors, with three or four different pitchers combining for the 30 or so starts that usually come out of one spot in the rotation. But Sports Illustrated only gives you five spots, and the Good Predictors have to come up with a five-man rotation for each team.

Off the top of my head, here are some predictions that were immediately cancelled:

Oakland A's: Trevor Cahill would have been the A's fifth starter but for injury. He was replaced with Gio Gonzalez. But with Brett Anderson recently headed to the DL and Cahill slated to come back to the majors soon, we might see a further shakeup.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Eric Stults lost the competition to knuckleballer Charlie Haeger prior to the season... and immediately took off for Japan. Hiroki Kuroda and his translator (Kenji Nimura) brokered a deal for Stults to pitch for Kuroda's former team, where experts predict he might turn into a star... or at least garner a big payday, as did Colby Lewis after returning from the Land of the Rising Sun.

Cincinnati Reds: This one was a battle right down to the end between Mike Leake and Travis Wood; Sports Illustrated just put their money behind the wrong horse. It might not matter much in the long run, seeing as both appear to be close to Major League ready, and they could both make decent contributions.

Baltimore Orioles: Chris Tillman would have had the job... if he didn't completely drop the ball in Spring Training. He was replaced by David Hernandez.

BIG NEWS HERE, I know. But it's always fun to test our collective predictive powers against what actually comes to pass.