Friday, October 12, 2012

The Number One Seeds: Analysis

Well, the bad news is that one quarter of the teams that made it to the big final year-end tournament have been eliminated, among them my first and third priorities of teams I'd like to have seen win the World Series. The good news however, is that all four division series made it Game 5, providing fans with a full 20 out of 20 potential first-round games! If anyone knows somebody who works at the Elias Sports Bureau, go ahead and ask them when the last time was that this happened.

As it turns out, the top seeded teams in each league (the ones with the distinct pleasure of facing the winners of the first inaugural Wild Card Games) are now on the brink of elimination, just like everybody else. I won't go into detail on their respective opponents, because I've already done write-ups on the Wild Card teams, but here's an in-depth look into the playoff lineups of the teams who led their leagues in wins this year:



The Nationals won the most regular season games of any team (just edging out the freshly-eliminated Reds by one), but 15 of those wins came behind the arm of Stephen Strasburg (1,861 points / 66.5 ppg) who will not appear in Washington's playoff run due to a controversial decision by GM Mike Rizzo. No one can know if Strasburg would have gotten shelled any less than Jordan Zimmermann or Edwin Jackson (his technical replacement, Ross Detwiler, actually pitched quite well facing elimination) had he taken the hill in his playoff debut, but unless the Nats can continue their run into October, the decision to sit the organization's best pitcher for the city's first playoff berth in 79 years will surely haunt the franchise for many years to come.

3B stalwart Ryan Zimmerman played well despite battling injuries - a theme the Nats will have to get used to for the next 7 years, since he doesn't become a free agent until 2019. But the real stories this year revolve around the impressive debut of Bryce Harper (if you don't count his performance in the playoffs) and the breakout success of Ian Desmond (my pick of him in the 20th round really solidified my fantasy team). Jayson Werth missed a lot of time with a broken wrist, but he really took ownership of that leadoff role upon his return, from which spot in the lineup he hit the key walk-off HR that forced today's Game 5.

A couple of ex-Athletics form the battery of today's game: Gio Gonzalez was sent over in the offseason trade that netted the A's both SP Tommy Milone and C Derek Norris (along with SP Brad Peacock, but we don't like to talk about his 2012 season in AAA). The remaining guaranteed year+OPT on Kurt Suzuki's 3*-yr extension he signed with the A's prior to 2011 was transferred to the Nationals in a waiver-wire deal in early August. The Nats' bullpen got a late boost with the return of closer Drew Storen from the devastating elbow injury that forced him to the 60-day DL.



The Yankees will have to play a day game following a (late, due to 13-innings) night game this afternoon to decide who advances to the ALCS. That news does not bode well for the aging squad, who were already feeling sore and banged-up to begin with. Case in point: manager Joe Girardi wasn't able to get his best offensive players on the field the last two games because he had to use the DH slot to rest first A-Rod and then Jeter. At least he found a spot for Game 3 hero Raul Ibanez in today's lineup - even if it's at the expense of quarter-of-a-million dollar man Alex Rodriguez (which means that the Yanks will start another ex-Athletic at 3B: none other than Eric "Chokey" Chavez!).

Andy Pettitte pitching for New York in 1997 (L) and 2012 (R)
As further proof that the Yankees are stuck in 1997, just look at their Game 2 starter: 40-year-old Andy Pettitte, who the Yanks lured out of "retirement" for the second time this year. I like Pettitte as a pitcher, but I can't say I approve of the Yankees' relationship with him, treating what should be his retirement years as if he's in their own personal farm system. But if the man wants to play, let him play, I guess. I think Hiroki Kuroda is a more effective pitcher at this point in his career, and we'll see what happens to both of them when they hit free agency after this season.

The Bronx Bombers also failed to get younger when they traded for Ichiro Suzuki in a deadline deal. The 38-year-old outfielder can still swing the bat (he hit .322 in 67 games since heading east) and plays a better defensive LF than Brett Gardner's last fill-in (Ibanez). Robinson Cano put up another offensive season for the ages while Curtis Granderson quietly surpassed 40 HR for the second straight year and CC Sabathia led the pitching staff as only a 6'7" 290lb giant of a lefty can. Rafael Soriano didn't miss a beat taking over the closer role after Mariano Rivera went down with a freak batting practice injury. I hope the Yankees re-sign him next year (is there really any doubt?) because he deserves a better end to his career than a torn ACL sustained while shagging fly balls.


So those are the top seeded teams in the game right now, each playing to stay alive in games today. I'm glad I was able to pull myself out of an A's-loss-related funk long enough to get these out while both these teams are still in contention. Before I sink back in, I have two grievances with the Athletics' performance in the ALDS to get off my chest.

1) Where in the name of all that is holy were Jonny Gomes and Chris Carter?
These two power righties hit 32 home runs between them and spent significant time at the No. 2, No. 4 (Gomes) and No. 5 (Carter) spots in the batting order, all high profile offensive positions, and yet only one of them got as much as a single plate appearance in the division series - during the 8th inning of the Game 5 blowout. I know their platoon splits dictate that they should play primarily against lefty pitchers, but the A's faced Phil Coke three times in close/late situations, and yet the only pinch hitter Bob Melvin could muster was... his backup catcher. Carter is under team control for at least another 5 years, but Gomes - who was a huge part of the A's' magical season, providing excellent energy and always being the first out of the dugout after a walk-off win (unless he was responsible for the win himself) - becomes a free agent after the World Series. I would love to see him return, but if it were me, I don't know if I'd want to re-sign with an organization that showed me absolutely no love when the games mattered most.

2) How come no yellow jerseys?
When the A's clinched the AL West title against the Rangers last week, they were wearing their sweet alternate throwback yellow jerseys that they unveiled last year, and yet they didn't show up for even one game in the ALDS. HOW'S A TEAM SUPPOSED TO FIND SOME LUCK IN BORING HOME WHITES!?!?

That is all. Now I can finally put this disappointing finish to the season behind me. Who's ready for Free Agent season!?!?

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