2012 (Inaugural) AL Wild Card Preview

What a surprising collapse for the Texas Rangers, am I right? To hold first place in their division EVERY DAY of the season except for two days in April and 1 day in October... and then to have to settle for a Wild Card spot. But that's what happens when you don't take a magical team like the Oakland A's seriously enough, which is a lesson the Tigers will learn starting tomorrow. Meanwhile, to continue into the traditional playoffs, the Rangers have to face an equally surprising (but for the opposite reason) Baltimore Orioles team, who has defied all odds and earned a spot in the inaugural AL Wild Card Game. Let's take a look at this matchup:

C: Matt Wieters (3.2) vs. Mike Napoli (1.4)

Power hitting catchers are rare commodities indeed, and we've got two of the best facing off against each other in this matchup (Napoli has slugged 24 HR to Wieters's 23). But power hitting catchers that can also contribute on defense (Wieters has thrown out 39% of potential base stealers  as opposed to Napoli's 21%)? That is truly a special player.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

1B: Mark Reynolds (-0.1) vs. Mitch Moreland (0.2)
Reynolds moved over to 1B after his defense at 3B was too much for the O's to stomach, so a lot of his negative defensive WAR has been negated by that position switch. And he didn't lead the league in strikeouts for the first time in five years! Meanwhile Moreland split time at 1B with Michael Young when one of Texas's bigger hitters needed some time at DH.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

2B: Robert Andino (0.0) vs. Ian Kinsler (2.0)
Baltimore has nothing but replacement level folks to trot out here, whereas Kinsler is a two-time 30/30 player who came one HR short of his fourth 20/20 season.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

3B: Manny Machado (1.5) vs. Adrian Beltre (6.6)

Machado making his debut and helping his team reach the playoffs for the first time in 15 years is a great story... but Beltre is straight up a great player. It's unclear whether he'll play at 3B in this game, ceding the hot corner to Michael Young in the last few contests of the regular season. But he will be sure to make a difference in this game, whether it's with his bat or his glove or both.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

SS: J.J. Hardy (3.0) vs. Elvis Andrus (3.4)
Power hitting shortstops with soft hands in the field are almost as rare as power hitting catchers who can throw out baserunners, but Baltimore has one of each! But unfortunately for the Orioles, power does not a complete hitter make. Despite the lack of pop in his bat, Andrus has a higher OPS than Hardy by nearly .060 points, and that coupled with what he brings on the basepaths (21 steals in 31 attempts vs. 0 steals in 0 attempts) gives Andrus the edge.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

LF: Nate McLouth (0.8) vs. David Murphy (3.2)
Murphy spent a lot of time on the bench when Josh Hamilton's fragile body prevents him from playing in CF. But McLouth spent a lot of time languishing in Pittsburgh putting up -0.5 WAR. He's been a great table setter since coming over to the Orioles and his intangibles are through the roof, but there's no question who puts up the better production.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

CF: Adam Jones (3.4) vs. Josh Hamilton (3.3)

Conventional wisdom would say to pick Hamilton here because of his monster offensive numbers, but given his recent performance I'm not so sure. After a crazy start to the season, he hit only one HR over the crucial final two weeks of the season, and while neither of these players are exactly assets on defense, Jones didn't drop a routine fly ball that very opened the door to costing his team the division title. Then there's durability, which doesn't come into play much for a one-game playoff, but Jones played all 162 games, whereas Hamilton missed games because he had too much caffeine - what does he think this is Marcy Playground circa 1997?
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

RF: Chris Davis (1.3) vs. Nelson Cruz (0.1)
Ask the Rangers how they feel about that trade that sent Davis and SP Tommy Hunter to the O's for RP Koji Uehara now that Davis has erupted with 33 HR on the year and a 1.057 OPS in the season's final months, and you'll likely hear some wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth in response. Cruz still puts up good power numbers, but he's completely fallen apart defensively - not that Davis is a stud in the field, but at least he can play three different positions with moderate competency.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

DH: Jim Thome (-0.1) vs. Michael Young (-2.4)
Thome is the second starting Oriole to have spent time with a Pennsylvania team before heading south to help Baltimore with its playoff push. He's a hitting legend and sure Hall of Famer, but clearly on his way out and it's questionable how much he can contribute at age 41. Young got absolutely no love in terms of baseball reference WAR, both offensively (-1.0) and defensively (-2.1, again not sure how the math works out), definitely a far cry from the guy who led the league in hits last year. But there is something to be said for a veteran who can step in and play any infield position when called upon to do so.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

SP: Joe Saunders (0.7) vs. Yu Darvish (4.0)

Darvish technically qualifies as a rookie, despite five dominant seasons in the Japanese league (76-21 record (.731 win pct), 1.72 ERA, 0.890 WHIP). He racked up a lot of innings overseas, but the rigors of the longer MLB season might have been getting to him towards the end there. Saunders has pitched decently for the Birds after being acquired in late August from the D-Backs (3-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.276 WHIP), but not as strongly as say Wei-Yin Chen (another import from the Japanese leagues) or Chris Tillman (who was used in the last game of the season two days ago). Maybe Showalter tabbed the lefty because he's had the most postseason experience of any starter on his staff (with the Angels in 08-09 and with the D-Backs last year) but whatever the reasoning, the talent level looks a little skewed in one direction.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

RP: Jim Johnson (1.3) vs. Joe Nathan (1.9)
In Johnson's first year as a closer he did not disappoint, leading the league with 51 saves, a 2.49 ERA, and a 1.019 WHIP - but only 5.4 K/9IP. Nathan returned to form in his first full season after missing all of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery (37 saves, 2.80 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 10.9 K/9). As much as the concept of a pitch-to-contact closer worries me, I don't think there's a big difference between these two as far as who I'd rather have closing down a big game.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH