But before we enter that chapter, we still have a whole round of playoffs to get through! I use the term "round" lightly, because a one-game playoff seems pretty scant for fans who are used to kicking off the playoffs with a best of five series. The new format is essentially adding a tiebreaker game to each league to determine the wild card spots. The funny thing is that in the AL, this one game matchup between the Rangers and the Orioles would have happened even in the old format, because they both finished the season with the same record! In the NL, however, the Cardinals have a chance to make their seven fewer wins than the Braves completely disappear in one game. Let's see how their two lineups stack up.
A quick word about my chart, as usual: The rank column represents where that player stands in relation to the other batters or pitchers on his team. I've written enough about swp that you all should be pretty familiar with it by now. Also, since the above chart includes swp, I've included each player's WAR next to their names below. And for those fantasy-relevant players (i.e. owned in more than 40% of ESPN leagues) I've included the player's astrological sign, just for kicks. We'll see if any patterns develop among playoff teams. Now let's get to the position-by-position rankings I love so well...
I don't know if McCann is still considered an elite catcher, but he sure didn't have an elite season this year. He still has some pop in his bat (20 HR), but his 2012 OPS was more than .125 points off his career average. We'll see how the Braves approach his $12.5m option going into the offseason. The Cardinals on the other hand won't have to worry about Yadier Molina's contract option until 2018, and they couldn't be happier with how the 29-year-old defensive wiz has been progressing at the plate as well. This one is the no-brainerest decision of this whole endeavor.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
1B: Freddie Freeman (2.1) vs. Allen Craig (2.2)
I can tell you right now, we're looking at a push. Freeman has delivered on the promise he showed when the Braves made him the second rookie in as many years to start the season at a key offensive position in 2011. When Craig was finally given a starting role - after recovering from knee surgery, battling back from a hamstring strain, and thanks to an injury to Lance Berkman - he picked up right where he left off from his 3 HR performance in last year's World Series. I was tempted to give the edge to Craig because he put up comparable totals in less playing time, but I think what they bring to the table is about equal.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
2B: Dan Uggla (2.7) vs. Daniel Descalso (-0.2)
Despite Uggla's highly-publicized benching in September, he still brings infinitely more to the plate than Descalso, who's a backup utility infielder on most teams.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES
These two players put up very similar fantasy production in two very different stages of their careers. Freese is just now entering his prime (2012 was his first season playing in more than 100 games) while Jones is famously retiring after this season. Their rate stats are almost identical, but I'm going to have to give the edge to Freese here due to his upside and his ability to stay on the field (Jones made two trips to the DL15 with a meniscus tear and a calf bruise). Plus, being a postseason hero last year is enough to push him over the edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
SS: Andrelton Simmons (2.8) vs. Pete Kozma (1.1)
Both of these SS's are backup plans for their respective clubs: the Cardinals re-signed veteran Rafael Furcal for this season, and the Braves hoped that rookie Tyler Pastornicky could shoulder the starting SS role. Kozma appears more polished with the bat (.952 OPS in his 26 games) while Simmons is a rock star in the field (2.4 WAR with his glove alone), but they're both very much works in progress.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Let me make this clear: WAR takes defense into account, and defense is NOT Matt Holliday's strong suit. Offensively, he's got the clear advantage with 4.4 oWAR to Prado's 3.2 - it's the difference between a middle of the order power bat and a prototypical No. 2 hitter. But Prado's defensive versatility (he played every non-battery position except the other two outfield spots) give him the edge in the advanced metrics. But there's no question who I'd rather have at the plate in a key situation.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
CF: Michael Bourn (6.0) vs. Jon Jay (3.2)
Talk about the prototypical leadoff hitter... and you'd be talking about Michael Bourn. Great speed (that more often than not also translates into good outfield defense at a key position - his WAR is pretty evenly split between offense and defense), pretty good plate discipline, and the willingness to attempt a steal in any situation (he was caught stealing a league leading 13 times, against 42 successful tries). Jay had the leadoff role thrust upon him with Furcal's injury, and he responded fairly well, keeping his average right around his career .300 mark. But it's clear who's more of a difference-maker at the top of the order.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES
RF: Jason Heyward (5.5) vs. Carlos Beltran (3.6)
Like Prado, Heyward's WAR is also skewed because of defense, but here's the thing: he's got a slight edge on Beltran even considering only oWAR (3.2 to 3.0, although Beltran is also listed as having -0.0 dWAR, so it looks like baseball reference's calculations break down slightly on this one). After losing out to Buster Posey in the 2010 Rookie of the Year voting (I mean, the first-year catcher did lead his team to a World Championship), Heyward rebounded from a 2011 sophomore slump with a 20/20 season. Beltran is doing his best Lance Berkman comeback-with-the-Cardinals impression with his first 30 HR season in five years.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES (but it's close)
Which strategy for nursing a pitcher back to health following a major surgery do you support? Trotting him out to the mound every five days to start, and then shutting him down when he reaches his prescribed innings limit? Or pitching him out of the bullpen for the first four months of the season, then moving him to the rotation when the games count, leaving him well short of any potential innings limit by the time the playoffs role around? The Nationals followed the first strategy with Stephen Strasburg, and now he's unavailable for the postseason. Meanwhile the Braves followed the second strategy with Kris Medlen, and now he's scheduled to pitch in the Wild Card Game. Not only that, but despite Strasburg's electric stuff, Medlen actually outperformed the phenom by a whole 1.7 WAR. So we'll see whose strategy wins out.
Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been the Cardinals' most consistent starter all season. He led the league in starts (he tallied as many as his age, 33) and win pct. (16-3, .842), and beat his career low ERA by more than half a point. He is coming into a contract year and the Cardinals have hinted that they're going to let him test the market, so any team signing him should beware of Adrian-Beltre-in-2004-itis. I thought rookie manager Mike Matheny might have gone with playoff veteran Adam Wainwright or even the newly-returned Chris Carpenter for this game, but he chose to go with the stats here. But if you want to talk about stats: in Medlen's 12 starts since joining the rotation he's gone 9-0 with 112.7 swp/g. He's on track to become a household name, and it might start with a win in the first ever Wild Card Game.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES
Last year's Rookie of the Year might be on his way to becoming this year's Cy Young winner. Never mind that the last reliever to win the award was Eric Gagne back in 2003 (who had some choice words to say about Adrian Beltre circa 2004, and they didn't have anything to do with his dropoff in production following a big free agent deal). Never mind that Gio Gonzalez won 21 games and that R.A. Dickey turned in a magical season even while allegedly pitching with a torn right abdominal for most of the year. Kimbrel has had one of the all-time most absolutely dominant seasons out of the bullpen. Don't get me wrong, Jason Motte is nothing to sneeze at, but this is a guy who wasn't even the official "Closer" during last year's playoff run.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES
I know from doing a bunch of these that position-by-position previews amount to a hill of beans when predicting who's going to win an actual matchup, but it's fun nevertheless to be able to say a little bit about all the pieces that make a roster work. This promises to be a great game, and I hope everyone tunes in at 5:07pm ET to see which of these great teams advances to the next round!
No comments:
Post a Comment