2013 Free Agents

It's been a week and a weekend since the 2012 playoffs started with the inaugural Wild Card Games, and a whole lot has happened since then. We saw 20 out of a possible 20 Division Series games, and now four games into the Championship Serieses, the Giants and Cardinals are in a dead heat, while the Tigers don't appear to be losing any momentum (especially since the Yankees will be welcomed to Detroit tonight by Justin Verlander). While there is decidedly still a lot of playoff baseball left to be played in the next two weeks, I'm going to leave coverage of those games in more capable hands and look ahead to what excitement this offseason might bring.

The most newsworthy proceedings that occur during the Hot Stove season has to be the filing and signing of free agents. Everybody loves to see high-profile players jump over to new teams, and free agency is the perfect stage on which to display that spectacle, what with the tense negotiations, multi-million dollar contracts, and the press conferences with the new jerseys awkwardly worn over suit jackets. And then of course there is the always exhilarating potential surprise appearance of the Mystery Team.

I'm so excited about this year's free agent class that I've been keeping track of them throughout the season - along with many other things in my extensive Baseball Database work-in-progress. I last updated this document with stats and info through the All-Star Break (7/9/12), and while teams are free to negotiate and sign contract extensions with their own impending free agents at any point during the year, I thought a lineup made of the best potential free agents as of the Midsummer Classic would help put this offseason's complete list in a little perspective:

Just a few short words about this preliminary list (because the real analysis will come later) - notice that four of these 18 players ended the season on different teams than the ones they were on at the All-Star Break. This should give you some insight into the types of players GMs like to move at the Trade Deadline - it makes sense to try to get something in return for the dudes whose commitment to the team is coming to an end. Now let's see what happened to those four players as well as the rest of the rest of the top free agents of 2013.

For this lineup, I've included two more columns: one that details the type of contract the player has just completed and one describing the monetary value linked to said contract. But before we run the numbers, you should notice three players missing from the previous list who were re-signed to extensions before the end of the season. Edwin Encarnacion got his 3yr, $30mm deal to remain Toronto's 1B/DH on the last day of the All-Star break, Cole Hamels signed a 6yr, $144mm deal just before the trade deadline to keep Philadelphia's monster rotation intact, and in September Texas brought Colby Lewis back for next year, despite the fact that he missed the entire second half of the season with forearm issues.

It's uncertain what the All-Star Game MVP will make in his first year
of free agency after being suspended for 50 games to end the 2012 season.

Now to the money column. Five players are coming off arbitration-eligible years, and are thus hitting free agency for the first time. For those of you not well-versed in the nuances of baseball's financial system, salary arbitration is a way to ensure that young players are paid somewhat close to market rate for their services before hitting the open market. I'm not going to get into the details here, as I'm planning another post that will feature a lineup consisting of the offseason's top arb-eligible players. And, yes, it will contain an explanation of the "Super 2" status, which is why Melky Cabrera and Brandon League (above) enjoyed four years of arbitration before free agency instead of the customary three.

Despite his issues with over-caffeination this season, Hamilton still
promises to be the most sought-after free agent this winter.

Only two players (Josh Hamilton and Kyle Lohse) were signed to their most recent contracts by the teams that still employ them. Both have been given the green light to test the free agent market, which all but guarantees that their clubs won't make any offers during the period where teams can exclusively negotiate with their free-agents-to-be. Four players are just now reaching the ends of long-term extensions they signed with teams OTHER than the ones they suit(ed) up for in 2012. Nick Swisher signed a 5yr deal with the Athletics, but has since played for both the White Sox and the Yankees (who were kind enough to pick up his option for 2012). Zack Greinke only spent two years of the four year deal with the team that signed him (Kansas City) before moving to Milwaukee and then Anaheim. Ryan Dempster signed with the Cubs four years ago and then proceeded to pick up his own player option for '12 rather than become a free agent last year - a decision that I'm sure Theo Epstein appreciates, since he was able to flip the pitcher to the Rangers for a couple prospects at the deadline. And Marco Scutaro is finishing up the deal he signed with the Red Sox only after having played for two different teams since then.

While Swisher's deal+opt has the most total money attached to it, the highest-paid player on this list in terms of average annual value (or AAV) is superstar DH David Ortiz (his 1yr deal pays him more than $14.5mm). Big Papi was set to become a free agent last offseason, but he stayed with the Red Sox by accepting their offer of arbitration (there's that term again - I would mention something about a team's ability to offer arbitration to an impending free agent in my aforementioned future post, but they're in the process of changing this rule anyway). Dempster is a close second with an AAV of $13mm+, while Hamilton's $12mm AAV is third. After his monster season, I would expect him to earn much more than that over a multi-year deal, despite the slow finish.

First year Yankee jitters? Apparently no one told Kuroda about them!

Four players were brought in (or brought back, as the case may be) on 1yr deals, including the two big-name pitchers who replaced the two pitchers from the All-Star break list who were signed to extensions. Hiroki Kuroda adapted well to the pressure-packed environment of Yankees baseball, but I have it on good authority that he would prefer to pitch on the west coast. Edwin Jackson was passable for the Nationals, but the journeyman appears likely to be headed for his seventh team in six years. Jonathan Broxton's fantasy value took a hit when he traded his save opportunities with the Royals for hold opportunities in front of Aroldis Chapman with the Reds, but I'd say he's pretty successfully reestablished himself as a dominant reliever. And the fact that Eric Chavez has started a playoff game for the Yankees says more about the utter un-clutchitude of A-Rod than it does about Chokey's prowess on the field - although he did churn out a surprising 12 HR as one of the main players in New York's DH rotation.

Looking ahead, I'd say that Michael Bourn and A.J. Pierzynski are good bets to re-sign - as the Braves look to remain perennial contenders, I think they'd be loath to part with their marquee top-of-the-order table setter, and I don't think any other team would want Pierzynski. Swisher (who replaced Encarnacion after becoming eligible at 1B from all that work he got subbing for Mark Teixeira) is basically a lock to return - free agency for the Yankees is basically just a period of renegotiation. After his October meltdown(s) expect Jose Valverde to be in a similar position to Broxton going into last off-season. Greinke got off to a shaky start to his time in southern California, but he had a solid finish and the Angels certainly don't balk at the big free agent deal. I wouldn't be surprised if they brought him back and let Dan Haren walk rather than pick up his $15.5mm option - I would be surprised if they kept both pitchers around for 2013.

Your fans are all praying for a speedy recovery
and to see you back on the mound in 2013!

There's a couple of honorable mentions I feel like I should... mention. Shane Victorino will hit the market with the Dodgers, and it's a good bet he'll return. I don't see Ichiro on the Yankees as anything more than a rental since Brett Gardner will likely be returning to the Bronx Bombers next year. Carlos Pena will likely try to bring his sub-Mendoza line average to a team other than the Rays. Mariano Rivera is a lock to return to the Yankees if he deems himself able to pitch. And then there are a couple of A's pitchers coming off no end of uncertainty: Brandon McCarthy has been making good progress in his recovery from a brutal line drive to the head, while Bartolo Colon has yet to prove he can survive in the majors with just the hormones that his 40-year-old body can produce on its own. I'd say incentive-laden deals are in store for these two, the former back with the A's, the latter with a young club desperate for some veteran leadership (see the pre-2012 A's...).

This year's free agent class lacks the star power of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, CC Sabathia (although see above regarding Yankee free agents), C.J. Wilson et al. But there are some very solid players out there who have the potential to make some new teams very happy. I'll be following all these free agents and more as soon as they're allowed to file on the day after the World Series. Until then, keep watching the games and try not to be too disappointed at the dearth of interesting teams left out there...