NLDS CIN vs. SFG Analysis

Woah there, Cincinnati, slow down! We don't want TWO out of the four division serieses to be over before they started. The Reds have taken the first two from the 2010 World Series champion Giants; and just when I was about to voice my outrage at the new format that puts the BETTER-seeded team on the road for the pivotal first two games of a best of five series - a format that put the A's at a HUGE disadvantage this weekend (in hindsight they might have been better off pulling an "Olympic Badminton" and throwing one of those last three games against Texas, taking their chances with Baltimore in the Wild Card round, knowing that they'd get to start the next series with the Yankees at home... but I digress). Playing in the Bay Area didn't bother the Reds, who are traveling home today in a great position.

C: Ryan Hanigan vs. Buster Posey
Hanigan, who profiles more as a backup than a starter, was supposed to give way to Devin Mesoraco, Baseball America's #16 ranked prospect. But the catcher of the future only managed 54 games so the Reds had to make do. Posey meanwhile could be heading for an NL MVP award to put on the mantle next to his ROY from two years ago. His amazing season, in which he won the batting title* and led the league in OPS+, is even more impressive since it came on the heels of a brutal career-threatening leg injury sustained in a home plate collision.
ADVANTAGE: GIANTS

1B: Joey Votto vs. Brandon Belt
Votto is one of the most fearsome hitters in the game right now, and he's been rewarded for his greatness with a couple of contract extensions that run through 2024. He didn't put up fearsome power totals this year, as he missed a bunch of time getting arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee (although he still managed to lead the league in BB and OBP), but he's back at full strength and ready to contribute in the playoffs. Belt can... play left field in a pinch? That's all I've got.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

2B: Brandon Phillips vs. Marco Scutaro
Phillips is another Red to get a long-term extension, so the right side of Cincinnati's infield is set for at least another six years. Scutaro actually produced similar value in terms of fantasy points in his season he split with the Rockies and Giants, but he did it with base hits and plate discipline as opposed to power and speed. "Dat Dude" has the talent set more suited to change the outcome of a game.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

3B: Scott Rolen vs. Pablo Sandoval
I haven't been following the Reds very closely this season, but one of the few stories I did catch wind of was Todd Frazier's emergence as a solid rookie 3B. Why then did he give way to oft-injured veteran Scott Rolen for the playoffs? The world may never know. In the meantime, Sandoval has had his share of injuries himself in what is becoming an unpleasant trend for the Kung Fu Panda. When healthy though, I'd rather have his bat in the lineup.
ADVANTAGE: GIANTS

SS: Zack Cozart vs. Brandon Crawford
Crawford is your stereotypical one dimensional all-field-no-hit player, while the rookie Cozart is a much rarer two dimensional all-field-some-power player. According to Baseball Reference, both players contributed 2.0 dWAR (with the glove) and 0.9 oWAR (with the bat) despite the fact that Cozart out-homered Crawford 15 to 4. Neither player excels at getting on base (.304 OBP for Crawford, .288 for Cozart) and they both strike out far too much (Cozart K'd 113 times, Crawford 95), but you all know how chicks dig the long ball.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

LF: Ryan Ludwick vs. Gregor Blanco
Remember when Ludwick had that breakout 2008 season with 37 long balls and a .966 OPS? Well this year he put up his highest totals in those categories since then (26 and .877 respectively). He's even been batting cleanup in front of All-Star Jay Bruce. Blanco was a non-roster invitee who's only playing this position because his teammate (and the guy who actually led the NL in AVG) made some poor career choices and got himself suspended.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

CF: Drew Stubbs vs. Angel Pagan
Despite 14 HR and 30 SB, Stubbs had an incredibly disappointing season, embodied by a .277 OBP. Pagan has provided an invaluable spark at the top of the order after coming over from the Mets in an offseason trade. Despite getting on base .061 points more effectively than Stubbs, Pagan actually stole one fewer base... but that's only because he finished his at-bat on third base a league-leading 15 times.
ADVANTAGE: GIANTS

RF: Jay Bruce vs. Hunter Pence
Pence was involved in his second high-profile trade deadline deal in as many years. But unlike last year when he carried the Phillies on his back to the tune of a .324 AVG, .954 OPS, and 2.2 WAR, this year he rode the Giants' coattails into the playoffs with a .219 AVG, .671 OPS, and 0.1 WAR. Bruce on the other hand has developed into the middle of the order pure power threat we expected, with his second straight season of 30+ HR, but an AVG in the .250s. He'll be a part of this Reds team almost as long as Phillips and Votto.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

SP1: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
How about Johnny Cueto finally coming into his own for a full season this year: 19 wins (3 more than Cain), 2.78 ERA (.01 lower than Cain), and a league-leading 33 starts. I certainly appreciated his performance after drafting him to my fantasy team in the 14th round. But Cueto threw only 8 pitches before being forced to exit game 1 with back spasms. His uncertainty for the rest of the series coupled with the magic of Cain's perfect game this year settles the score for this matchup.
ADVANTAGE: GIANTS

SP2: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner
The game in which these two faced off against each other already happened, but if I were doing projections, I would never have expected 7 shutout innings from Arroyo against 4.1 innings with 4 ER for Bumgarner. Overall though Maddy is a more talented pitcher with a significantly higher upside.
ADVANTAGE: GIANTS

SP3: Homer Bailey vs. Ryan Vogelsong
The penultimate start of the best season of Bailey's career was a no-hitter, the seventh of the year. Vogelsong has done his best to prove that his comeback last season after four years out of the majors was no fluke. At 26 years old I think Bailey has more potential than the 34-year-old Vogelsong, but for one game I don't think the difference is too great.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

SP4: Mat Latos vs. Tim Lincecum/Barry Zito
Game 4 starters haven't been announced yet, so we don't know if Latos will return on 3 days rest after coming to Cueto's rescue with 4 IP of relief in game 1. Likewise we don't know if Bruce Bochy will trot out the veteran Zito or pull two-time Cy Young winner Lincecum out of the bullpen, where he was relegated after an uncharacteristically pedestrian season. Whoever his opponent is, Latos's bounceback after a disastrous April (right after I dropped him from my fantasy roster) gives him the clear upper hand.
ADVANTAGE: REDS

RP: Aroldis Chapman vs. Sergio Romo
We've all heard the stories about the 105 mph fastballs, the somersaults off the mound, the time off in September due to shoulder fatigue, but one thing is for sure: Aroldis Chapman is one of the most dominant left-handed relievers to play the game of baseball ever. Romo might have similarly impressive facial hair, but Brian Wilson he ain't - and even if The Beard weren't injured, there's no way he'd compete with the Cuban Missile.
ADVANTAGE: REDS


As with the A's-Tigers series, this one is all but in the books. It's nearly impossible to come back from such a deficit, even heading into home-field advantage. But I wouldn't count out even these Lincecum-less Giants until the last pitch. Because as a baseball great once said, "It ain't over 'til it's over."