Projections vs. Reality: Texas Rangers

Last year's AL champions, the Rangers were picked to finish second behind (*chuckle*) the fearsome Oakland A's.  (Let me just get in a quick aside here: it's strange being a fan of a team that consistently underperforms expectations.  I want the A's to do well each season and as a fan, I naturally set irrational expectations for them.  And when I see them projected to finish first, I always share in the optimism throughout the baseball community.  But then I take a look at the projected lineup, and it seems like the baseball community is showing my same irrationality.  Which is fine, but I can't help wondering when everyone else will wise up and see the numbers...)

In the "Enemy Lines" section of the SI Preview, the "rival scout" makes 7 points about these Rangers.  Three of them consist of gushing about Josh Hamilton's Mickey Mantle-esque strength, Adrian Beltre's unrivaled athleticism at the hot corner, and Mitch Moreland's strong spring performance.  Well, the former two players put up strong seasons despite both missing time due to injury, and the latter player quite frankly didn't hit like a starting first baseman on a playoff club.  However, this club didn't have anything close to a traditional setup at first base.  New acquisition Mike Napoli, a catcher by trade, spent most of last year playing first for the Angels due to an injury to Kendrys Morales, and SS-turned-2B-turned-3B-turned-DH Michael Young can play any infield position, which includes 1B.  Both filled in for Moreland a bit in 2011, mostly against lefties.

The scout also pegged C.J. Wilson as a back of the rotation starter, completely misinterpreting his successful transition from reliever to starter last year.  Maybe pitching behind Cliff Lee last post-season taught a lot about leading a team from the left side of the rubber.  His similar prognosis for Colby Lewis, however, was rather accurate.  Neftali Feliz didn't become a starter this year, so he didn't have to worry about developing another out pitch beyond his fastball.  The Rangers couldn't play Julio Borbon over David Murphy due to the former's general ineffectiveness, so they lost a little there defensively.  But the scout nailed it when he predicted they'd package Chris Davis for a pitcher (although it wasn't a starting pitcher, as predicted).

The "Modest Proposal" is strikingly similar to Detroit's: they should use their heavy-hitting new acquisition as catcher instead of general utility role.  Napoli did get enough at-bats to be considered a starter, although he split his time between catcher, first base, and DH.  "The Number" refers to how Rangers pitchers last year recorded just .190 strikeouts per batter faced.  They didn't improve too much - just to .196 - but apparently it was enough to improve their staff ERA from 3.93 to 3.79.