Projections vs. Reality: Milwaukee Brewers

Let me just say right off, that as soon as it became apparent that the Brewers would make the playoffs, they were my pick to win the World Series (against the Rays, but let's not get into that...).  I wasn't sure how they would get past the Phillies, but thankfully they didn't have to.  But after falling behind 2 games to 1 against the Cardinals, they still have their work cut out for them.  Their run is even more impressive seeing as they were projected to finish 2nd in the division behind the Cincinnati Reds.

Not to rag on the scout in the "Enemy Lines" section, but he got two things noticeably wrong.  The first involves the pitching staff: "With Zack Greinke out ... they're scrambling."  Well, as it happened, Greinke compiled just the fourth-highest pitching WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among Brewers starters.  And even though he missed five starts due to an injury, his pitching WAR per start is still fourth on the team.  Here's how the numbers shake out with Milwaukee's entire starting staff (the same as projected by SI, by the way):

The second thing the scout got wrong had to do with starting third baseman Casey McGehee, who the projected lineup has him batting fifth, behind the inspiration for Beast Mode: "He can protect Fielder."  McGehee could have done so with numbers resembling last year's 23 HR, 104 RBI, and 3.0 WAR.  However McGehee played so poorly in 2011 that he actually recorded one win below replacement (-1.0 WAR), the lowest of any Brewers player.  Kudos to manager Ron Roenicke for trusting the numbers and going with Jerry Hairston at 3B for the playoffs.  Below is a graphic illustrating the drastic decline in production:

Speaking of trusting the numbers, the "Modest Proposal" section refers to a sabermetric theory that a team's worst batter (i.e. the pitcher, for National League clubs) should bat 8th in the order instead of 9th.  That way you have the top of the order coming up with men on base more often, or something like that.  Be that as it may, Roenicke trotted out a batting order with the pitcher batting 9th for all 162 of the Brewers' games this year.  "The Number" emphasizes the lack of baserunning speed by powerhouse first baseman Prince Fielder, claiming that he only went from 1st to 3rd on a single ONCE last year.  The baseball-reference stats pages lump 1st-to-3rd and 1st-to-home scenarios together - they have Fielder with a "3" in that column.  That number increased to "8" in 2011, so maybe he increased his running drills in the off-season or learned to pick up the ball flight better.  Either way, he definitely still knows how to hit:

Pretty much the only discrepancy between the projected lineup and reality is that newcomer Nyjer Morgan started the majority of games in CF rather than Carlos Gomez, who served more of a defensive replacement role.  Also the batting order was rejiggered a little towards the end of the season putting Corey Hart into the leadoff role rather than Rickie Weeks.  And solid backup Mark Kotsay (whose swing I really like) is missing.  But other than those small differences, this team played as planned, and won.