Projections vs. Reality: Detroit Tigers

Actually getting the chance to sit and watch a postseason game all the way through (thanks, weekend!), which gives me the opportunity to begin some real hard analysis.  (The slow, methodical pace of baseball games makes them more fun to watch while multitasking, and I can't think of any better additional task than writing about baseball.)  I wanted to do a feature involving the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue, and what better way to do that than by looking in hindsight what it says about some of the teams in the playoffs.

We'll start with the visiting team in tonight's contest, the Detroit Tigers.  This team was projected to finish second in the AL Central to last year's division winners, the Minnesota Twins.  Along with these projections, each article includes a scout's take on some key players, a "modest proposal" for how the team could be managed differently, and a statistic that supposedly tells something about how the team will perform.  I'll go through those three elements and see how they measure up to reality.

According to said scout, the Tigers' success hinges on Miguel Cabrera, who is allegedly "right there with Albert Pujols" offensively - which the numbers support.  Justin Verlander is obviously the recognized leader of the staff.  The scout claims that Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are overrated (not entirely untrue), but seemed very bullish on Brad Penny and Phil Coke - one of whom struggled to the tune of a 5.30 ERA and the other was sent back to the bullpen from whence he came.

The apparent key to the bullpen - even more than nerve-racking closer Jose Valverde - is Joaquin Benoit, recipient of the Setup Man of the Year award in 2010.  He certainly continued on that same path this year, with his average fastball velocity holding steady from last year at right around 94 mph.  The Tigers hope Benoit will continue to anchor that bullpen through the duration of his three year contract.  The scout also pegged Austin Jackson to "take the next step this year," yet he saw his OBP decline by nearly 30 points, despite an increase in walks.

The "Modest Proposal"is to give Victor Martinez more playing time at catcher than at DH to maximize his value.  That's only if you agree that inserting Alex Avila as the number one catcher "is a bit forced" - an opinion not shared by All-Star voters this year who justifiably handed him the starting job for the AL. Martinez also figures into "The Number": 76.13 at bats per home run by Detroit's 2010 DHs.  Even though Martinez only hit 12 bombs this year (to go with his 103 RBI), they still improved that number to 42.50 in 2011.

Two major midseason acquisitions that the SI folks could never have anticipated bolstered the playoff version this team: new #2 pitcher Doug Fister (brought over from the Mariners) and left fielder Delmon Young (from the Twins).  However, aside from those two players, the projected lineup pretty much accurately represents the actual real-life lineup.  Rest assured, that's not always the case, and I will not hesitate to elucidate every little discrepancy that exists when applicable.