Philadelphia Phillies: In-Depth Analysis

National Pretzel Day has come and gone, and the Philly Pretzel Factory episode of Undercover Boss has by now been deleted from the DVRs of all but the most loyal fans, but the Philadelphia Phillies are still in the televised baseball consciousness, as Friday night's MLB Network Showcase featured the start of interleague play with Philly's Cole Hamels going up against Boston's Daniel Bard.  This was a rematch of the Phillies' first World Series appearance in 1915, which they lost; the Quakers (as they were then colloquially known) wouldn't win a Fall Classic until 1980 (against George Brett's Royals) and then not again until 2008 (against B.J. Upton's Devil Rays).  Not that I had a way of watching the game, since our cable did not follow us to our new apartment... but enough about me.

I started this In-Depth Analysis feature with 2 surprising 1st place teams (the Dodgers and the Orioles) so it's only natural to transition to a surprising last-place team.  The oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports has won its division the last 5 years running, so naturally no one expected the Phillies to be struggling to reach .500 in mid-May.  (Although the Phillies are no strangers to the L column, as they have lost the most games of any franchise in professional American sports over their long history dating back to 1883.)

The first thing that stands out looking at the Phillies' current roster is that it's been completely riddled with injuries - the inactive portion of their 40-man roster has almost as much red-highlighted players (15-day disabled list) as blue (on minor league assignments).  They've got more than $37mm worth of primarily right side-infielders on the DL, as they've run through most of the replacements they brought on as placeholders while Ryan Howard recovers from his ruptured achilles tendon suffered during his final at-bat of 2011.  Meanwhile, rookie Freddy Galvis has gotten the shot to play every day at 2B due to Chase Utley's chronic knee tendinitis that "might never go away" according to Phillie's manager "Fuck you, Charlie" Manuel.  Galvis is the lone member of the Phillies' list of top 20 prospects to play in the majors in 2012, although he is joined on the 40-man roster by P Phillippe Aumont, C Sebastian Valle, and 2B Cesar Hernandez.  (P Justin De Fratus is also on the prospect list, but is currently on the 60-day DL while rehabbing a right elbow strain.)

The Phightin's also have a few pitchers on the DL: their youngest starter Vance Worley just went down a couple days ago and 2 righty relievers who gave the team an average of about 60 IP in '011 (Michael Stutes and David Herndon) all are out with elbow or shoulder inflammation.  Apparently the only bullpen replacements GM Pat Gillick could muster were left handed, cuz Philly now has 4 (count 'em, 4) lefties in the bullpen.  I've heard of playing the matchups, but this is ridiculous!  That's about it for the injuries (whew!) - now for the active players.

Highest Scoring Phillies (2012)

In his first potential free agent year, Cole Hamels (627) is outperforming the other 2 pitchers the Phillies have already signed to huge multi-year deals.  With his team languishing in last place, Hamels might have taken the plunge from contract extension candidate to trade chip - along with fellow Free Agent-to-be Shane Victorino.

Roy Halladay (620), one of the two aforementioned pitchers signed to long deals, is not far behind Hamels in total points, but Hamels has racked up 89.6 points per game to Halladay's 68.9 - and Hamels is going again tonight against the Red Sox.  His fellow highly-paid rotation-mate of the future Cliff Lee (422) likely would be on this list had he not missed a couple of starts due to a strained oblique.

Hunter Pence (542) and Carlos Ruiz (530) have done a decent job shoring up an offense that has been without its major power hitters.  Pence leads the team with 9 HR, but Ruiz has been the shining star of this lineup thus far with a .363 AVG and an OPS of 1.024.  If they can keep up their level of production until Howard and Utley come back, it might have the same effect as making a couple big midseason acquisitions.

Highest Scoring Phillies (2011)

The Phillies' trio of elite pitchers mentioned before paced the squad in points: Halladay and Lee (2,800 and 2,749 respectively) put up truly elite numbers (behind only Cy Young Award Winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander).  Hamels wasn't far behind; his 2,347 points put him 11th among all starting pitchers last year.  Hunter Pence was the fourth Phillie to break the 2k mark (2,104 points between the Astros and Phillies) while Ryan Howard fell just 2 points short of the milestone.  Shane Victorino (1,963) and Jimmy Rollins (1,829) provided impressive combinations of power and speed, giving the Phillies 7 players with higher point totals than Baltimore's top scorer.

Highest Paid Phillies

The Phillies have not one, not two, but THREE $20mm players - a feat equalled only by (you guessed it) the New York Yankees.  But at least all 3 were among their top 5 scorers last year.  Also all 3 are on multi-year deals (with options) that will continue to pay them at least $20mm through at least 2013 (Halladay), 2015 (Lee), and 2017 (Howard).  A pair of Phillies are being paid $15mm even: Hamels, who settled on a 1-year extension to avoid arbitration, and Chase Utley, who's in the middle of a 7-year extension of his own.

Newest Phillies

Most of the players I've mentioned earlier in this post have been with the team for a while.  That's to be expected with a team that's seen a lot of success in the past - thus the new acquisitions were mostly supplementary pieces or placeholders.  The most significant was surely new closer Jonathan Papelbon plucked from the Red Sox for a record-setting price for a reliever.  The only other acquisitions who are playing regularly are veteran OF Juan Pierre (filling in until Domonic Brown proves he's ready to play) and cornerman Ty Wigginton (who has taken most of the time at 1B due to Ryan Howard's injury, and then could be an alternative at 3B when Placido Polanco when/if the Phillies decline their side of his 2013 mutual option).

Reliever Chad Qualls has pitched the 2nd most innings out of anyone in the bullpen not named Papelbon, and both Laynce Nix and Jim Thome spent time backing up Wigginton at 1B before they went down with a strained calf and back, respectively.  IF Hector Luna and RP Raul Valdez both were acquired during the off-season, but neither found themselves on the opening day roster.

Outlook

Honestly, not great when you consider how great the Nationals, Braves, and even lately the Marlins have been playing.  The early losses of Howard and Utley put the Phils' offense in a tailspin that might be near impossible from which to recover.  And then if they do become surprise sellers and deal Hamels and/or Victorino (who is willing to play for a "hometown" discount - Philly acting as a second home since there are no baseball teams in Hawaii) you can write off 2012 entirely and hope that Gillick can net some good prospects to supplement Howard, Lee, Rollins, and Papelbon by 2015, the last year all 4 of those star players are under contract.