Monday, May 7, 2012

Los Angeles Dodgers: In-Depth Analysis

The Dodgers rode an incredible 9-1 start to the top of the NL West, where they remain to this day with a 4.0 game lead over the hated rival Giants.  Led by centerfielder Matt Kemp (who has been playing with a chip on his shoulder since losing out on MVP honors last year to an accused steroid user) and NL Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw, the Boys in Blue are hoping to ride this early-season momentum to a better-than-expected 2012 campaign.  And after officially welcoming in its new ownership group last week, the club can expect to play in a distraction-free environment with some financial support that was sorely lacking in the end of Frank McCourt's reign of terror.

Check out the Dodgers' 40-man roster (current as of the start of this week)




Kemp was MLB.com's top-ranked fantasy player going into 2012, and he has not disappointed, leading all batters in points by more than 100 and being named Player of the Month for April.  Dodgers fans must be especially happy to see Kemp produce in this, the first year of an extension that will keep him in Los Angeles through 2020.  He's grown so much as a player and a person since his break with Rihanna (not that the two are connected) that you can be sure he's not just playing for a contract.  We can't be so sure that's not the case for his fellow outfielder Andre Ethier, who is slated to hit free agency after earning nearly $11 million this year in his fourth time through the arbitration process (thanks to his coveted Super 2 status).  He's leading the league in RBI, but I'm sure the Dodgers front office remembers Adrian Beltre's monster contract year in 2004 - numbers he hasn't come close to equalling with his 3 subsequent teams.

In addition to Kemp and Ethier, the Dodgers have 3 more homegrown players in key offensive roles this year.  Super-speedster Dee Gordon (2nd in the league with 12 SB despite getting on base at a sub-.300 clip) doesn't hit arbitration until 2015, so he'll be at shortstop well into the distant future.  A.J. Ellis hits arbitration for the first time next year, and is showing excellent on-base ability.  The plan is for him share time with Tim Federowicz (fed-er-OH-vich, LA's prize in the 3-way deal that sent Erik Bedard to Boston and Trayvon Robinson to Seattle), perhaps as soon as this year, based on Fed's performance in AAA.  Like Ethier, James Loney is staring free agency in the face after this season, but unlike Ethier, he hasn't stepped up his game in response.  Loney is due $6.38 million this year through arbitration, so it may be hard for the Dodgers to move him if he continues to struggle.

The newest member of the Dodgers does give the team some more short term options.  Veteran outfielder Bobby Abreu was picked up after being cut by the Angels, which would allow his former Angels teammate Juan Rivera (resigned after being acquired by the Dodgers last season) to take some more time at first.  In this scenario, Tony Gwynn would remain in his role as defensive specialist, even though (as Sports Illustrated points out) his regular presence in the outfield could help save more runs than his counterparts would create, due to the presence of several fly ball pitchers on the staff.  Prospect Jerry Sands can play first as well as corner outfield, but he has to prove he can hit at/above AAA.

The rest of the Dodgers infield is made up of declining veterans brought in this year or last year.  Jerry Hairston has outplayed Juan Uribe at the hot corner while also providing versatility at other positions.  Mark Ellis has racked up plenty of at-bats (and surprisingly a fair amount of walks) hitting second in the lineup in front of Matt Kemp, but neither he nor Adam Kennedy nor the injured Ivan De Jesus look like the answer, and only one of the team's top 20 prospects is an infielder.

One of the Dodgers' underrated strengths is a starting rotation that has major league caliber talent 1 thru 5.  Even though new acquisitions Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano profile as more middle to bottom of the rotation starters, the confidence instilled by not having any competition for spots in Spring Training cannot be overstated.  Kershaw is signed to a deal that buys out his next two arbitration eligible seasons, but it would be foolish for Magic, Kasten, & Co. not to lock him up to a long term deal.  Ted Lilly has bounced back nicely after starting the season on the DL (an astounding 93 points per game), and Chad Billingsley is out once again to prove that he can maintain his early-season success across 30 starts.

The closer role is in a bit of uncertainty with converted catcher Kenley Jansen taking over from  sophomore Javy Guerra.  The lone rookie on the roster, Josh Lindblom, has been outperforming both veteran relievers signed to $1+ million deals (Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey, both of whom have spent time on the DL already).  Nathan Eovaldi, the Dodger's only player to appear on MLB's list of Top 100 Prospects (at 70) pitched just enough innings last year to miss qualifying as a rookie in '12.  He spent some time on the roster, but never made it into a game - he was sent down when Ronald Belisario finished serving his 25-game suspension for testing positive for cocaine.  Up until last week, the oldest player on the opening day roster was Jamey Wright (37), who made the squad as a non-roster invitee - he has since been surpassed by the 38-year-old Abreu.


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