Baltimore Orioles: In-Depth Analysis

If I asked you last week which team had the best record in baseball, the unlikely and surprising answer would be the Baltimore Orioles.  Since then they've fallen behind the Dodgers and Rangers and into a tie with the Braves, but it's still surely indeed an impressive start for a team that has finished in the AL East basement the last 4 consecutive years, and hasn't had a winning record since 1997.  Maybe changing their logo back to the cartoony bird that they wore on their caps from the mid 60's to the late 80's - the period during which the franchise won all 3 of its World Series titles - has helped this team get back to its roots and turn things around.  Not to mention the addition of manager Buck Showalter during the 2010 season who tends to have that effect on the teams he takes over.

Before their 15-year slump, the Baltimore Orioles had a rich and storied history.  They were one of the 8 charter members of the American League in 1901, although at the time the team played in Milwaukee and were known as the Brewers, the same name the team used in the minor Western League since 1894.  They only lasted one year in Milwaukee before moving to St. Louis and becoming the Browns.  While playing in STL, the Browns gave the city 50 years of .433 ball, 1 World Series appearance (a loss to the rival Cardinals), and a couple of baseball's most notorious publicity stunts: we have outlandish owner Bill Veeck to thank for the only midget ever to pinch hit and the only one-armed man to play major league ball.

When Veeck was stepped down from his post - the only way the other owners would approve the team's move to Baltimore - things started to pick up.  The fiery managerial stylings of Earl Weaver, the Hall of Fame careers of Jim Palmer, the Robinsons (Frank and Brooks, unrelated), and Cal Ripken Jr.'s, who was involved in the all-time baseball moment of the 20th century when he broke Lou Gehrig's streak of 2,131 consecutive games (Ripken set the new record at 2,632).  Those happy times gave way to a long stretch of futility, but if the start of this season is any indication, the group of players you'll see below might have a chance to turn things around.

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Highest Scoring Orioles (2012)

Adam Jones (574) - Nobody questioned Jones's talent level, but some were concerned that he might not have what it takes to make the jump from good to great.  He's all but silenced his doubters this year with 10 HR and a strong chance to make his first start in an All-Star game this summer.

Jim Johnson (531) - Johnson took over the closer's role from Kevin Gregg this season and hasn't looked back: he didn't allow a run until May 10 (his 13th game) and hasn't allowed one since.

Jason Hammel (519) - Hammel was acquired for durable starter Jeremy Guthrie in February - a transaction that some dubbed "the worst deal of the off-season" at the time.  But his sub-2.10 ERA and sub-1.000 WHIP, while probably not sustainable over a full season, prove that he has what it takes to compete in a tough AL East.

Matt Wieters (409) - After breaking out last year (22 HR, an All-Star berth, and a Gold Glove) Wieters is a prime candidate for a Yadier Molina-esque contract extension, if not before he becomes arbitration eligible next year, definitely before he hits the open market in 2016.

Highest Scoring Orioles (2011)

Mark Reynolds (1,795) was just starting to creep his average towards the Mendoza line this year when he injured his oblique during batting practice Saturday.  This is the third in a string of recent injuries that occurred before the first pitch: Yoenis Cespedes strained his hand and Mariano Rivera of course will be out for the season with a torn ACL.

Nick Markakis (1,778) hasn't surpassed 20 HR since 2008, the year before he signed his 6-year, $66 million deal, but he has put up a solid batting average while also contributing in the field (Gold Glove award winner in '11).  At 28 years of age, he's not a bad player to build a team around.

Adam Jones (1,735) has been among the Orioles' top 3 point scorers for the previous 3 years, and they still have yet to lock up the 26-year-old to a long term deal.  With strong ties to the community and a team that has shown it's ability to compete (at least over the first month of the season), we could see this former Mariners prospect become a franchise player.

J.J. Hardy (1,680) might have flamed out with the Brewers and Twins, but the Orioles hope he's just getting started, having signed him to a 3-year extension last summer.  Before 2012's hot start, people were referring to Hardy and Reynolds as trade chips - amazing how much can change in a month.

Highest Paid Orioles

The O's two $10mm+ players are aforementioned franchise player Nick Markakis ($12mm) and chronically injured Brian Roberts ($10mm), who has yet to play in a game this year due to a concussion.  People say chicks dig the long ball, but as it turns out, so do GM's checkbooks: Mark Reynolds ($7.5mm) and J.J. Hardy ($7mm) were the team's leader and runner-up in HR in 2011.  It's only after Adam Jones, who signed a $6.15mm deal to avoid arbitration, do we get our first pitcher on the highest paid list: former closer and still trade chip Kevin Gregg who will still make a closer's salary at $5.8mm.

Newest Orioles

For a team that everyone expected to finish last in the division this year, the Orioles were very active in the off-season, acquiring 15 players who are currently on their 40 man roster.  The biggest offensive acquisitions were veteran journeyman Wilson Betemit, who was signed to DH, but has actually played as many games as Reynolds at 3B, and 4th outfielder Endy Chavez, who just landed on the DL late last week with an intercostal (read: ribcage) muscle strain.

I mentioned the Jeremy Guthrie deal earlier, but I didn't mention that in addition to Jason Hammel, the O's also received hard-throwing reliever Matt Lindstrom, who was pitching like gangbusters until injuring his middle finger on Friday.  The team brought up another new acquisition, Dana Eveland, to replace him on the roster.  Of the two pitchers the Orioles brought in from the Japanese League, Taiwanese born Wei-Yin Chen has vastly out-performed Tsuyoshi Wada in that Chen has actually pitched in 2012, whereas Wada was shut down for Tommy John surgery after 1 start in the minors.  What's more, Chen has pitched well, notching a 2.68 ERA over his 6 starts.

The Orioles made room for 2 non-roster invitees who won a spot on the team during Spring Training: Nick Johnson, who hit close to .300 during the spring but is struggling with an OPS just over .550 in fewer than 50 AB's at DH and 1B, and Ronny Paulino, who was brought in to back up Wieters until he was unexpectedly reassigned to the minors despite a .300 AVG in limited duties.  Ryan Flaherty, the O's Rule 5 pick from the Cubs, has the ability to play all over the diamond, but he hasn't hit much yet in his rookie season - he has played as many defensive positions as he has base hits (6).

Season Outlook
The Orioles still have a bunch of games left against the tough teams in their division against whom they've historically had trouble when it counts.  While the team is playing damn good baseball right now, it's troubling that none of their prized starting pitching prospects have panned out as expected: Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are the only ones contributing at the major league level, and they're not doing particularly well.  A well-performing bullpen can only get you so far, and MLB's #10 overall prospect Dylan Bundy won't be ready for at least a couple more years.  I'd expect the Birds to fall back to Earth over the course of the season, but they've already been in the hunt longer than anyone expected them to be, and I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to live the dream for a little while longer.