The time has come once again to leave the mundane world of actual Major League Baseball and journey into the realm of the fantastical. It's been nearly a week since the constellation of Taurus completed its passage through the sky, during which span another (roughly) 1/12th of MLB players celebrated their birthdays. And now, for the next chapter in my ongoing Astrology Baseball project, let's examine the strengths and weaknesses of a fantasy team made up of just those players: the Taurus Bulls.
To compile the depth chart below, I went through (roughly, it's a very rough project) the top 300 scoring players in the fantasy world (150 pitchers and 150 position players) and pulled all the players born under the Taurus sign. With each team having logged at least 40 games in the books (1/4 of the season, can you believe it?), I think we now have a large enough sample size that we don't have to rely on the pre-season rankings that I used to build the initial rosters. This sample size also means that each player has played enough games to establish new positional eligibility without having to rely on 2011 stats. So thanks to ESPN Fantasy Baseball's real-time point calculator, here's a position-by-position run-through of the Taurus team from top to bottom.
TAU is notable in that their top point scorer is also MLB's top point scorer: Josh Hamilton will doubtless be the first player to top 1,000 points this year... and I passed up my chance to draft him in my league because I was convinced he would get hurt like he's always been doing. But in the meantime, he's leading the league in all 3 triple crown categories. Hamilton has played as many games in LF as he has in CF, which is why his name appears on the depth chart twice, with his secondary position in parenthesis. However, if not for Emilio Bonifacio's sprained thumb, he would likely shift Hamilton to left to maximize points - Bonifacio still leads the league in SB despite being on the DL for the past 3 days. Another guy whose primary position is CF is Gerardo Parra, who wasn't even expected to start when the Diamondbacks acquired Jason Kubel. Primarily playing LF through his career, Parra's had some time at CF with the injury to Chris Young, and he's shown more speed than power so far in '12. With so much depth up the middle, Michael Brantley's purely a backup of a backup.
The most surprising offensive success story of this team has to be RF Carlos Beltran, who has continued his career resurgence with the Cardinals. Like Hamilton he leads his league in HR, but also like Hamilton he's had his share of injury troubles in the recent past - so much so that despite a nice 2011 with the Mets and the Giants, Beltran didn't even crack the top 200 ranked players prior to this season. Jayson Werth was projected to start in RF until a fractured left wrist landed him on the DL for at least 12 weeks.
TAU's next highest-scoring player is Prince Fielder at 1B, a position with (predictably enough) plenty of depth. Unlike fellow huge free agent contract recipient Albert Pujols, Fielder hasn't been a huge bust since moving to the AL, even though his Tigers haven't lived up to their lofty, star-powered expectations. Next on the depth chart at 1B is Adrian Gonzalez, who currently also sits first on the depth chart at DH. Although - like the Aries situation with Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre - if defense is at all a factor, Gonzalez (0.6 defensive Wins Above Replacement so far in 2012) should be in the field and Fielder (-1.0 dWAR) should DH. But depending on how David Freese hits, Gonzalez might be forced to sit, as he currently trails Fielder by nearly 100 points. There are still a few more first basemen on this roster, but with so many top producers at the position, no one else has a lot of fantasy relevance. Carlos Pena has been slumping since getting off to a hot start, but perhaps a move to the leadoff spot will improve his fortunes. Justin Morneau has yet to return to star status due to concussion troubles and a sore wrist. And James Loney still hasn't taken his career to the level he should be at heading into his first year of free agency.
At 2B, Astros sophomore Jose Altuve has outplayed Nationals sophomore Danny Espinosa. The shortest player in the league is one of the lone bright spots for a Houston franchise that is pretty far removed from the good old days of the Killer B's. Chase Headley and David Freese are locked in a back and forth battle for the 3B job, the former with his high OBP approach, the latter with his superior power. This leaves very little space for future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones in his last season before retirement, despite the fact that he's having a nice season. Taurus has two rare commodities rounding out the lineup: a productive catcher and a utility infielder with versatility. Matt Wieters showed he can live up to the high expectations set for him last year and has continued to flash a lot of power behind the plate. Sean Rodriguez has outperformed struggling SS Dee Gordon in his superutility role: he has also earned eligibility at 2B and 3B for the Rays.
The pitching staff is led by elite starter Roy Halladay who, as I mentioned in my post on the Phillies, trailed only the two Cy Young winners in total points last season. However the real staff ace, at least when 2012 is concerned, is another surprising success story Lance Lynn. We knew he had talent when Cardinals manager Tony La Russa used a roster spot on him in the postseason, but few could have predicted at league-leading 7 wins for the big right hander. After these two, the production drops off considerably: Ryan Dempster has been pitching well despite being winless for a last place Cubs team. Neftali Feliz had been enjoying his transition from the bullpen to the rotation before elbow inflammation landed him on the DL earlier this week. And Barry Zito has been serviceable... not to say his 1.24 K/BB ratio justifies his $19mm paycheck.
Based on pre-season rankings, neither Zito nor Lynn began the season in the rotation. Their spots were held by amateur golfer Josh Beckett and 6'7" Aaron Harang, who had his 15 minutes of fame this year by striking out 9 Padres in a row. Their backups were Dillon Gee, whose ERA is up a full point from last year, and Homer Bailey, who has put together a couple of good starts of late. This team is famously light on bullpen depth: Rafael Betancourt is the only true closer on their roster. That's not to say they didn't have some prospects before the season began: Joakim Soria was poised to make a big comeback, but he was lost for the season with his second reconstructive elbow surgery. And Francisco Cordero might have closed some games like he did last year until he fell to #2 on the depth chart for Toronto behind Sergio Santos.
My two most ardent passions brought together under the roof of one blog!
Friday, May 25, 2012
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Philadelphia Phillies: In-Depth Analysis
National Pretzel Day has come and gone, and the Philly Pretzel Factory episode of Undercover Boss has by now been deleted from the DVRs of all but the most loyal fans, but the Philadelphia Phillies are still in the televised baseball consciousness, as Friday night's MLB Network Showcase featured the start of interleague play with Philly's Cole Hamels going up against Boston's Daniel Bard. This was a rematch of the Phillies' first World Series appearance in 1915, which they lost; the Quakers (as they were then colloquially known) wouldn't win a Fall Classic until 1980 (against George Brett's Royals) and then not again until 2008 (against B.J. Upton's Devil Rays). Not that I had a way of watching the game, since our cable did not follow us to our new apartment... but enough about me.
I started this In-Depth Analysis feature with 2 surprising 1st place teams (the Dodgers and the Orioles) so it's only natural to transition to a surprising last-place team. The oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports has won its division the last 5 years running, so naturally no one expected the Phillies to be struggling to reach .500 in mid-May. (Although the Phillies are no strangers to the L column, as they have lost the most games of any franchise in professional American sports over their long history dating back to 1883.)
The first thing that stands out looking at the Phillies' current roster is that it's been completely riddled with injuries - the inactive portion of their 40-man roster has almost as much red-highlighted players (15-day disabled list) as blue (on minor league assignments). They've got more than $37mm worth of primarily right side-infielders on the DL, as they've run through most of the replacements they brought on as placeholders while Ryan Howard recovers from his ruptured achilles tendon suffered during his final at-bat of 2011. Meanwhile, rookie Freddy Galvis has gotten the shot to play every day at 2B due to Chase Utley's chronic knee tendinitis that "might never go away" according to Phillie's manager "Fuck you, Charlie" Manuel. Galvis is the lone member of the Phillies' list of top 20 prospects to play in the majors in 2012, although he is joined on the 40-man roster by P Phillippe Aumont, C Sebastian Valle, and 2B Cesar Hernandez. (P Justin De Fratus is also on the prospect list, but is currently on the 60-day DL while rehabbing a right elbow strain.)
The Phightin's also have a few pitchers on the DL: their youngest starter Vance Worley just went down a couple days ago and 2 righty relievers who gave the team an average of about 60 IP in '011 (Michael Stutes and David Herndon) all are out with elbow or shoulder inflammation. Apparently the only bullpen replacements GM Pat Gillick could muster were left handed, cuz Philly now has 4 (count 'em, 4) lefties in the bullpen. I've heard of playing the matchups, but this is ridiculous! That's about it for the injuries (whew!) - now for the active players.
Highest Scoring Phillies (2012)
In his first potential free agent year, Cole Hamels (627) is outperforming the other 2 pitchers the Phillies have already signed to huge multi-year deals. With his team languishing in last place, Hamels might have taken the plunge from contract extension candidate to trade chip - along with fellow Free Agent-to-be Shane Victorino.
Roy Halladay (620), one of the two aforementioned pitchers signed to long deals, is not far behind Hamels in total points, but Hamels has racked up 89.6 points per game to Halladay's 68.9 - and Hamels is going again tonight against the Red Sox. His fellow highly-paid rotation-mate of the future Cliff Lee (422) likely would be on this list had he not missed a couple of starts due to a strained oblique.
Hunter Pence (542) and Carlos Ruiz (530) have done a decent job shoring up an offense that has been without its major power hitters. Pence leads the team with 9 HR, but Ruiz has been the shining star of this lineup thus far with a .363 AVG and an OPS of 1.024. If they can keep up their level of production until Howard and Utley come back, it might have the same effect as making a couple big midseason acquisitions.
Highest Scoring Phillies (2011)
The Phillies' trio of elite pitchers mentioned before paced the squad in points: Halladay and Lee (2,800 and 2,749 respectively) put up truly elite numbers (behind only Cy Young Award Winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander). Hamels wasn't far behind; his 2,347 points put him 11th among all starting pitchers last year. Hunter Pence was the fourth Phillie to break the 2k mark (2,104 points between the Astros and Phillies) while Ryan Howard fell just 2 points short of the milestone. Shane Victorino (1,963) and Jimmy Rollins (1,829) provided impressive combinations of power and speed, giving the Phillies 7 players with higher point totals than Baltimore's top scorer.
Highest Paid Phillies
The Phillies have not one, not two, but THREE $20mm players - a feat equalled only by (you guessed it) the New York Yankees. But at least all 3 were among their top 5 scorers last year. Also all 3 are on multi-year deals (with options) that will continue to pay them at least $20mm through at least 2013 (Halladay), 2015 (Lee), and 2017 (Howard). A pair of Phillies are being paid $15mm even: Hamels, who settled on a 1-year extension to avoid arbitration, and Chase Utley, who's in the middle of a 7-year extension of his own.
Newest Phillies
Most of the players I've mentioned earlier in this post have been with the team for a while. That's to be expected with a team that's seen a lot of success in the past - thus the new acquisitions were mostly supplementary pieces or placeholders. The most significant was surely new closer Jonathan Papelbon plucked from the Red Sox for a record-setting price for a reliever. The only other acquisitions who are playing regularly are veteran OF Juan Pierre (filling in until Domonic Brown proves he's ready to play) and cornerman Ty Wigginton (who has taken most of the time at 1B due to Ryan Howard's injury, and then could be an alternative at 3B when Placido Polanco when/if the Phillies decline their side of his 2013 mutual option).
Reliever Chad Qualls has pitched the 2nd most innings out of anyone in the bullpen not named Papelbon, and both Laynce Nix and Jim Thome spent time backing up Wigginton at 1B before they went down with a strained calf and back, respectively. IF Hector Luna and RP Raul Valdez both were acquired during the off-season, but neither found themselves on the opening day roster.
Outlook
Honestly, not great when you consider how great the Nationals, Braves, and even lately the Marlins have been playing. The early losses of Howard and Utley put the Phils' offense in a tailspin that might be near impossible from which to recover. And then if they do become surprise sellers and deal Hamels and/or Victorino (who is willing to play for a "hometown" discount - Philly acting as a second home since there are no baseball teams in Hawaii) you can write off 2012 entirely and hope that Gillick can net some good prospects to supplement Howard, Lee, Rollins, and Papelbon by 2015, the last year all 4 of those star players are under contract.
I started this In-Depth Analysis feature with 2 surprising 1st place teams (the Dodgers and the Orioles) so it's only natural to transition to a surprising last-place team. The oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports has won its division the last 5 years running, so naturally no one expected the Phillies to be struggling to reach .500 in mid-May. (Although the Phillies are no strangers to the L column, as they have lost the most games of any franchise in professional American sports over their long history dating back to 1883.)
The first thing that stands out looking at the Phillies' current roster is that it's been completely riddled with injuries - the inactive portion of their 40-man roster has almost as much red-highlighted players (15-day disabled list) as blue (on minor league assignments). They've got more than $37mm worth of primarily right side-infielders on the DL, as they've run through most of the replacements they brought on as placeholders while Ryan Howard recovers from his ruptured achilles tendon suffered during his final at-bat of 2011. Meanwhile, rookie Freddy Galvis has gotten the shot to play every day at 2B due to Chase Utley's chronic knee tendinitis that "might never go away" according to Phillie's manager "Fuck you, Charlie" Manuel. Galvis is the lone member of the Phillies' list of top 20 prospects to play in the majors in 2012, although he is joined on the 40-man roster by P Phillippe Aumont, C Sebastian Valle, and 2B Cesar Hernandez. (P Justin De Fratus is also on the prospect list, but is currently on the 60-day DL while rehabbing a right elbow strain.)
The Phightin's also have a few pitchers on the DL: their youngest starter Vance Worley just went down a couple days ago and 2 righty relievers who gave the team an average of about 60 IP in '011 (Michael Stutes and David Herndon) all are out with elbow or shoulder inflammation. Apparently the only bullpen replacements GM Pat Gillick could muster were left handed, cuz Philly now has 4 (count 'em, 4) lefties in the bullpen. I've heard of playing the matchups, but this is ridiculous! That's about it for the injuries (whew!) - now for the active players.
Highest Scoring Phillies (2012)
In his first potential free agent year, Cole Hamels (627) is outperforming the other 2 pitchers the Phillies have already signed to huge multi-year deals. With his team languishing in last place, Hamels might have taken the plunge from contract extension candidate to trade chip - along with fellow Free Agent-to-be Shane Victorino.
Roy Halladay (620), one of the two aforementioned pitchers signed to long deals, is not far behind Hamels in total points, but Hamels has racked up 89.6 points per game to Halladay's 68.9 - and Hamels is going again tonight against the Red Sox. His fellow highly-paid rotation-mate of the future Cliff Lee (422) likely would be on this list had he not missed a couple of starts due to a strained oblique.
Hunter Pence (542) and Carlos Ruiz (530) have done a decent job shoring up an offense that has been without its major power hitters. Pence leads the team with 9 HR, but Ruiz has been the shining star of this lineup thus far with a .363 AVG and an OPS of 1.024. If they can keep up their level of production until Howard and Utley come back, it might have the same effect as making a couple big midseason acquisitions.
Highest Scoring Phillies (2011)
The Phillies' trio of elite pitchers mentioned before paced the squad in points: Halladay and Lee (2,800 and 2,749 respectively) put up truly elite numbers (behind only Cy Young Award Winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander). Hamels wasn't far behind; his 2,347 points put him 11th among all starting pitchers last year. Hunter Pence was the fourth Phillie to break the 2k mark (2,104 points between the Astros and Phillies) while Ryan Howard fell just 2 points short of the milestone. Shane Victorino (1,963) and Jimmy Rollins (1,829) provided impressive combinations of power and speed, giving the Phillies 7 players with higher point totals than Baltimore's top scorer.
Highest Paid Phillies
The Phillies have not one, not two, but THREE $20mm players - a feat equalled only by (you guessed it) the New York Yankees. But at least all 3 were among their top 5 scorers last year. Also all 3 are on multi-year deals (with options) that will continue to pay them at least $20mm through at least 2013 (Halladay), 2015 (Lee), and 2017 (Howard). A pair of Phillies are being paid $15mm even: Hamels, who settled on a 1-year extension to avoid arbitration, and Chase Utley, who's in the middle of a 7-year extension of his own.
Newest Phillies
Most of the players I've mentioned earlier in this post have been with the team for a while. That's to be expected with a team that's seen a lot of success in the past - thus the new acquisitions were mostly supplementary pieces or placeholders. The most significant was surely new closer Jonathan Papelbon plucked from the Red Sox for a record-setting price for a reliever. The only other acquisitions who are playing regularly are veteran OF Juan Pierre (filling in until Domonic Brown proves he's ready to play) and cornerman Ty Wigginton (who has taken most of the time at 1B due to Ryan Howard's injury, and then could be an alternative at 3B when Placido Polanco when/if the Phillies decline their side of his 2013 mutual option).
Reliever Chad Qualls has pitched the 2nd most innings out of anyone in the bullpen not named Papelbon, and both Laynce Nix and Jim Thome spent time backing up Wigginton at 1B before they went down with a strained calf and back, respectively. IF Hector Luna and RP Raul Valdez both were acquired during the off-season, but neither found themselves on the opening day roster.
Outlook
Honestly, not great when you consider how great the Nationals, Braves, and even lately the Marlins have been playing. The early losses of Howard and Utley put the Phils' offense in a tailspin that might be near impossible from which to recover. And then if they do become surprise sellers and deal Hamels and/or Victorino (who is willing to play for a "hometown" discount - Philly acting as a second home since there are no baseball teams in Hawaii) you can write off 2012 entirely and hope that Gillick can net some good prospects to supplement Howard, Lee, Rollins, and Papelbon by 2015, the last year all 4 of those star players are under contract.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Baltimore Orioles: In-Depth Analysis
If I asked you last week which team had the best record in baseball, the unlikely and surprising answer would be the Baltimore Orioles. Since then they've fallen behind the Dodgers and Rangers and into a tie with the Braves, but it's still surely indeed an impressive start for a team that has finished in the AL East basement the last 4 consecutive years, and hasn't had a winning record since 1997. Maybe changing their logo back to the cartoony bird that they wore on their caps from the mid 60's to the late 80's - the period during which the franchise won all 3 of its World Series titles - has helped this team get back to its roots and turn things around. Not to mention the addition of manager Buck Showalter during the 2010 season who tends to have that effect on the teams he takes over.
Before their 15-year slump, the Baltimore Orioles had a rich and storied history. They were one of the 8 charter members of the American League in 1901, although at the time the team played in Milwaukee and were known as the Brewers, the same name the team used in the minor Western League since 1894. They only lasted one year in Milwaukee before moving to St. Louis and becoming the Browns. While playing in STL, the Browns gave the city 50 years of .433 ball, 1 World Series appearance (a loss to the rival Cardinals), and a couple of baseball's most notorious publicity stunts: we have outlandish owner Bill Veeck to thank for the only midget ever to pinch hit and the only one-armed man to play major league ball.
When Veeck was stepped down from his post - the only way the other owners would approve the team's move to Baltimore - things started to pick up. The fiery managerial stylings of Earl Weaver, the Hall of Fame careers of Jim Palmer, the Robinsons (Frank and Brooks, unrelated), and Cal Ripken Jr.'s, who was involved in the all-time baseball moment of the 20th century when he broke Lou Gehrig's streak of 2,131 consecutive games (Ripken set the new record at 2,632). Those happy times gave way to a long stretch of futility, but if the start of this season is any indication, the group of players you'll see below might have a chance to turn things around.
(click on the chart for a larger view)
Highest Scoring Orioles (2012)
Adam Jones (574) - Nobody questioned Jones's talent level, but some were concerned that he might not have what it takes to make the jump from good to great. He's all but silenced his doubters this year with 10 HR and a strong chance to make his first start in an All-Star game this summer.
Jim Johnson (531) - Johnson took over the closer's role from Kevin Gregg this season and hasn't looked back: he didn't allow a run until May 10 (his 13th game) and hasn't allowed one since.
Jason Hammel (519) - Hammel was acquired for durable starter Jeremy Guthrie in February - a transaction that some dubbed "the worst deal of the off-season" at the time. But his sub-2.10 ERA and sub-1.000 WHIP, while probably not sustainable over a full season, prove that he has what it takes to compete in a tough AL East.
Matt Wieters (409) - After breaking out last year (22 HR, an All-Star berth, and a Gold Glove) Wieters is a prime candidate for a Yadier Molina-esque contract extension, if not before he becomes arbitration eligible next year, definitely before he hits the open market in 2016.
Highest Scoring Orioles (2011)
Mark Reynolds (1,795) was just starting to creep his average towards the Mendoza line this year when he injured his oblique during batting practice Saturday. This is the third in a string of recent injuries that occurred before the first pitch: Yoenis Cespedes strained his hand and Mariano Rivera of course will be out for the season with a torn ACL.
Nick Markakis (1,778) hasn't surpassed 20 HR since 2008, the year before he signed his 6-year, $66 million deal, but he has put up a solid batting average while also contributing in the field (Gold Glove award winner in '11). At 28 years of age, he's not a bad player to build a team around.
Adam Jones (1,735) has been among the Orioles' top 3 point scorers for the previous 3 years, and they still have yet to lock up the 26-year-old to a long term deal. With strong ties to the community and a team that has shown it's ability to compete (at least over the first month of the season), we could see this former Mariners prospect become a franchise player.
J.J. Hardy (1,680) might have flamed out with the Brewers and Twins, but the Orioles hope he's just getting started, having signed him to a 3-year extension last summer. Before 2012's hot start, people were referring to Hardy and Reynolds as trade chips - amazing how much can change in a month.
Highest Paid Orioles
The O's two $10mm+ players are aforementioned franchise player Nick Markakis ($12mm) and chronically injured Brian Roberts ($10mm), who has yet to play in a game this year due to a concussion. People say chicks dig the long ball, but as it turns out, so do GM's checkbooks: Mark Reynolds ($7.5mm) and J.J. Hardy ($7mm) were the team's leader and runner-up in HR in 2011. It's only after Adam Jones, who signed a $6.15mm deal to avoid arbitration, do we get our first pitcher on the highest paid list: former closer and still trade chip Kevin Gregg who will still make a closer's salary at $5.8mm.
Newest Orioles
For a team that everyone expected to finish last in the division this year, the Orioles were very active in the off-season, acquiring 15 players who are currently on their 40 man roster. The biggest offensive acquisitions were veteran journeyman Wilson Betemit, who was signed to DH, but has actually played as many games as Reynolds at 3B, and 4th outfielder Endy Chavez, who just landed on the DL late last week with an intercostal (read: ribcage) muscle strain.
I mentioned the Jeremy Guthrie deal earlier, but I didn't mention that in addition to Jason Hammel, the O's also received hard-throwing reliever Matt Lindstrom, who was pitching like gangbusters until injuring his middle finger on Friday. The team brought up another new acquisition, Dana Eveland, to replace him on the roster. Of the two pitchers the Orioles brought in from the Japanese League, Taiwanese born Wei-Yin Chen has vastly out-performed Tsuyoshi Wada in that Chen has actually pitched in 2012, whereas Wada was shut down for Tommy John surgery after 1 start in the minors. What's more, Chen has pitched well, notching a 2.68 ERA over his 6 starts.
The Orioles made room for 2 non-roster invitees who won a spot on the team during Spring Training: Nick Johnson, who hit close to .300 during the spring but is struggling with an OPS just over .550 in fewer than 50 AB's at DH and 1B, and Ronny Paulino, who was brought in to back up Wieters until he was unexpectedly reassigned to the minors despite a .300 AVG in limited duties. Ryan Flaherty, the O's Rule 5 pick from the Cubs, has the ability to play all over the diamond, but he hasn't hit much yet in his rookie season - he has played as many defensive positions as he has base hits (6).
Season Outlook
The Orioles still have a bunch of games left against the tough teams in their division against whom they've historically had trouble when it counts. While the team is playing damn good baseball right now, it's troubling that none of their prized starting pitching prospects have panned out as expected: Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are the only ones contributing at the major league level, and they're not doing particularly well. A well-performing bullpen can only get you so far, and MLB's #10 overall prospect Dylan Bundy won't be ready for at least a couple more years. I'd expect the Birds to fall back to Earth over the course of the season, but they've already been in the hunt longer than anyone expected them to be, and I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to live the dream for a little while longer.
Before their 15-year slump, the Baltimore Orioles had a rich and storied history. They were one of the 8 charter members of the American League in 1901, although at the time the team played in Milwaukee and were known as the Brewers, the same name the team used in the minor Western League since 1894. They only lasted one year in Milwaukee before moving to St. Louis and becoming the Browns. While playing in STL, the Browns gave the city 50 years of .433 ball, 1 World Series appearance (a loss to the rival Cardinals), and a couple of baseball's most notorious publicity stunts: we have outlandish owner Bill Veeck to thank for the only midget ever to pinch hit and the only one-armed man to play major league ball.
When Veeck was stepped down from his post - the only way the other owners would approve the team's move to Baltimore - things started to pick up. The fiery managerial stylings of Earl Weaver, the Hall of Fame careers of Jim Palmer, the Robinsons (Frank and Brooks, unrelated), and Cal Ripken Jr.'s, who was involved in the all-time baseball moment of the 20th century when he broke Lou Gehrig's streak of 2,131 consecutive games (Ripken set the new record at 2,632). Those happy times gave way to a long stretch of futility, but if the start of this season is any indication, the group of players you'll see below might have a chance to turn things around.
(click on the chart for a larger view)
Highest Scoring Orioles (2012)
Adam Jones (574) - Nobody questioned Jones's talent level, but some were concerned that he might not have what it takes to make the jump from good to great. He's all but silenced his doubters this year with 10 HR and a strong chance to make his first start in an All-Star game this summer.
Jim Johnson (531) - Johnson took over the closer's role from Kevin Gregg this season and hasn't looked back: he didn't allow a run until May 10 (his 13th game) and hasn't allowed one since.
Jason Hammel (519) - Hammel was acquired for durable starter Jeremy Guthrie in February - a transaction that some dubbed "the worst deal of the off-season" at the time. But his sub-2.10 ERA and sub-1.000 WHIP, while probably not sustainable over a full season, prove that he has what it takes to compete in a tough AL East.
Matt Wieters (409) - After breaking out last year (22 HR, an All-Star berth, and a Gold Glove) Wieters is a prime candidate for a Yadier Molina-esque contract extension, if not before he becomes arbitration eligible next year, definitely before he hits the open market in 2016.
Highest Scoring Orioles (2011)
Mark Reynolds (1,795) was just starting to creep his average towards the Mendoza line this year when he injured his oblique during batting practice Saturday. This is the third in a string of recent injuries that occurred before the first pitch: Yoenis Cespedes strained his hand and Mariano Rivera of course will be out for the season with a torn ACL.
Nick Markakis (1,778) hasn't surpassed 20 HR since 2008, the year before he signed his 6-year, $66 million deal, but he has put up a solid batting average while also contributing in the field (Gold Glove award winner in '11). At 28 years of age, he's not a bad player to build a team around.
Adam Jones (1,735) has been among the Orioles' top 3 point scorers for the previous 3 years, and they still have yet to lock up the 26-year-old to a long term deal. With strong ties to the community and a team that has shown it's ability to compete (at least over the first month of the season), we could see this former Mariners prospect become a franchise player.
J.J. Hardy (1,680) might have flamed out with the Brewers and Twins, but the Orioles hope he's just getting started, having signed him to a 3-year extension last summer. Before 2012's hot start, people were referring to Hardy and Reynolds as trade chips - amazing how much can change in a month.
Highest Paid Orioles
The O's two $10mm+ players are aforementioned franchise player Nick Markakis ($12mm) and chronically injured Brian Roberts ($10mm), who has yet to play in a game this year due to a concussion. People say chicks dig the long ball, but as it turns out, so do GM's checkbooks: Mark Reynolds ($7.5mm) and J.J. Hardy ($7mm) were the team's leader and runner-up in HR in 2011. It's only after Adam Jones, who signed a $6.15mm deal to avoid arbitration, do we get our first pitcher on the highest paid list: former closer and still trade chip Kevin Gregg who will still make a closer's salary at $5.8mm.
Newest Orioles
For a team that everyone expected to finish last in the division this year, the Orioles were very active in the off-season, acquiring 15 players who are currently on their 40 man roster. The biggest offensive acquisitions were veteran journeyman Wilson Betemit, who was signed to DH, but has actually played as many games as Reynolds at 3B, and 4th outfielder Endy Chavez, who just landed on the DL late last week with an intercostal (read: ribcage) muscle strain.
I mentioned the Jeremy Guthrie deal earlier, but I didn't mention that in addition to Jason Hammel, the O's also received hard-throwing reliever Matt Lindstrom, who was pitching like gangbusters until injuring his middle finger on Friday. The team brought up another new acquisition, Dana Eveland, to replace him on the roster. Of the two pitchers the Orioles brought in from the Japanese League, Taiwanese born Wei-Yin Chen has vastly out-performed Tsuyoshi Wada in that Chen has actually pitched in 2012, whereas Wada was shut down for Tommy John surgery after 1 start in the minors. What's more, Chen has pitched well, notching a 2.68 ERA over his 6 starts.
The Orioles made room for 2 non-roster invitees who won a spot on the team during Spring Training: Nick Johnson, who hit close to .300 during the spring but is struggling with an OPS just over .550 in fewer than 50 AB's at DH and 1B, and Ronny Paulino, who was brought in to back up Wieters until he was unexpectedly reassigned to the minors despite a .300 AVG in limited duties. Ryan Flaherty, the O's Rule 5 pick from the Cubs, has the ability to play all over the diamond, but he hasn't hit much yet in his rookie season - he has played as many defensive positions as he has base hits (6).
Season Outlook
The Orioles still have a bunch of games left against the tough teams in their division against whom they've historically had trouble when it counts. While the team is playing damn good baseball right now, it's troubling that none of their prized starting pitching prospects have panned out as expected: Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are the only ones contributing at the major league level, and they're not doing particularly well. A well-performing bullpen can only get you so far, and MLB's #10 overall prospect Dylan Bundy won't be ready for at least a couple more years. I'd expect the Birds to fall back to Earth over the course of the season, but they've already been in the hunt longer than anyone expected them to be, and I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to live the dream for a little while longer.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Los Angeles Dodgers: In-Depth Analysis
The Dodgers rode an incredible 9-1 start to the top of the NL West, where they remain to this day with a 4.0 game lead over the hated rival Giants. Led by centerfielder Matt Kemp (who has been playing with a chip on his shoulder since losing out on MVP honors last year to an accused steroid user) and NL Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw, the Boys in Blue are hoping to ride this early-season momentum to a better-than-expected 2012 campaign. And after officially welcoming in its new ownership group last week, the club can expect to play in a distraction-free environment with some financial support that was sorely lacking in the end of Frank McCourt's reign of terror.
Check out the Dodgers' 40-man roster (current as of the start of this week)
Kemp was MLB.com's top-ranked fantasy player going into 2012, and he has not disappointed, leading all batters in points by more than 100 and being named Player of the Month for April. Dodgers fans must be especially happy to see Kemp produce in this, the first year of an extension that will keep him in Los Angeles through 2020. He's grown so much as a player and a person since his break with Rihanna (not that the two are connected) that you can be sure he's not just playing for a contract. We can't be so sure that's not the case for his fellow outfielder Andre Ethier, who is slated to hit free agency after earning nearly $11 million this year in his fourth time through the arbitration process (thanks to his coveted Super 2 status). He's leading the league in RBI, but I'm sure the Dodgers front office remembers Adrian Beltre's monster contract year in 2004 - numbers he hasn't come close to equalling with his 3 subsequent teams.
In addition to Kemp and Ethier, the Dodgers have 3 more homegrown players in key offensive roles this year. Super-speedster Dee Gordon (2nd in the league with 12 SB despite getting on base at a sub-.300 clip) doesn't hit arbitration until 2015, so he'll be at shortstop well into the distant future. A.J. Ellis hits arbitration for the first time next year, and is showing excellent on-base ability. The plan is for him share time with Tim Federowicz (fed-er-OH-vich, LA's prize in the 3-way deal that sent Erik Bedard to Boston and Trayvon Robinson to Seattle), perhaps as soon as this year, based on Fed's performance in AAA. Like Ethier, James Loney is staring free agency in the face after this season, but unlike Ethier, he hasn't stepped up his game in response. Loney is due $6.38 million this year through arbitration, so it may be hard for the Dodgers to move him if he continues to struggle.
The newest member of the Dodgers does give the team some more short term options. Veteran outfielder Bobby Abreu was picked up after being cut by the Angels, which would allow his former Angels teammate Juan Rivera (resigned after being acquired by the Dodgers last season) to take some more time at first. In this scenario, Tony Gwynn would remain in his role as defensive specialist, even though (as Sports Illustrated points out) his regular presence in the outfield could help save more runs than his counterparts would create, due to the presence of several fly ball pitchers on the staff. Prospect Jerry Sands can play first as well as corner outfield, but he has to prove he can hit at/above AAA.
The rest of the Dodgers infield is made up of declining veterans brought in this year or last year. Jerry Hairston has outplayed Juan Uribe at the hot corner while also providing versatility at other positions. Mark Ellis has racked up plenty of at-bats (and surprisingly a fair amount of walks) hitting second in the lineup in front of Matt Kemp, but neither he nor Adam Kennedy nor the injured Ivan De Jesus look like the answer, and only one of the team's top 20 prospects is an infielder.
One of the Dodgers' underrated strengths is a starting rotation that has major league caliber talent 1 thru 5. Even though new acquisitions Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano profile as more middle to bottom of the rotation starters, the confidence instilled by not having any competition for spots in Spring Training cannot be overstated. Kershaw is signed to a deal that buys out his next two arbitration eligible seasons, but it would be foolish for Magic, Kasten, & Co. not to lock him up to a long term deal. Ted Lilly has bounced back nicely after starting the season on the DL (an astounding 93 points per game), and Chad Billingsley is out once again to prove that he can maintain his early-season success across 30 starts.
The closer role is in a bit of uncertainty with converted catcher Kenley Jansen taking over from sophomore Javy Guerra. The lone rookie on the roster, Josh Lindblom, has been outperforming both veteran relievers signed to $1+ million deals (Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey, both of whom have spent time on the DL already). Nathan Eovaldi, the Dodger's only player to appear on MLB's list of Top 100 Prospects (at 70) pitched just enough innings last year to miss qualifying as a rookie in '12. He spent some time on the roster, but never made it into a game - he was sent down when Ronald Belisario finished serving his 25-game suspension for testing positive for cocaine. Up until last week, the oldest player on the opening day roster was Jamey Wright (37), who made the squad as a non-roster invitee - he has since been surpassed by the 38-year-old Abreu.
Check out the Dodgers' 40-man roster (current as of the start of this week)
Kemp was MLB.com's top-ranked fantasy player going into 2012, and he has not disappointed, leading all batters in points by more than 100 and being named Player of the Month for April. Dodgers fans must be especially happy to see Kemp produce in this, the first year of an extension that will keep him in Los Angeles through 2020. He's grown so much as a player and a person since his break with Rihanna (not that the two are connected) that you can be sure he's not just playing for a contract. We can't be so sure that's not the case for his fellow outfielder Andre Ethier, who is slated to hit free agency after earning nearly $11 million this year in his fourth time through the arbitration process (thanks to his coveted Super 2 status). He's leading the league in RBI, but I'm sure the Dodgers front office remembers Adrian Beltre's monster contract year in 2004 - numbers he hasn't come close to equalling with his 3 subsequent teams.
In addition to Kemp and Ethier, the Dodgers have 3 more homegrown players in key offensive roles this year. Super-speedster Dee Gordon (2nd in the league with 12 SB despite getting on base at a sub-.300 clip) doesn't hit arbitration until 2015, so he'll be at shortstop well into the distant future. A.J. Ellis hits arbitration for the first time next year, and is showing excellent on-base ability. The plan is for him share time with Tim Federowicz (fed-er-OH-vich, LA's prize in the 3-way deal that sent Erik Bedard to Boston and Trayvon Robinson to Seattle), perhaps as soon as this year, based on Fed's performance in AAA. Like Ethier, James Loney is staring free agency in the face after this season, but unlike Ethier, he hasn't stepped up his game in response. Loney is due $6.38 million this year through arbitration, so it may be hard for the Dodgers to move him if he continues to struggle.
The newest member of the Dodgers does give the team some more short term options. Veteran outfielder Bobby Abreu was picked up after being cut by the Angels, which would allow his former Angels teammate Juan Rivera (resigned after being acquired by the Dodgers last season) to take some more time at first. In this scenario, Tony Gwynn would remain in his role as defensive specialist, even though (as Sports Illustrated points out) his regular presence in the outfield could help save more runs than his counterparts would create, due to the presence of several fly ball pitchers on the staff. Prospect Jerry Sands can play first as well as corner outfield, but he has to prove he can hit at/above AAA.
The rest of the Dodgers infield is made up of declining veterans brought in this year or last year. Jerry Hairston has outplayed Juan Uribe at the hot corner while also providing versatility at other positions. Mark Ellis has racked up plenty of at-bats (and surprisingly a fair amount of walks) hitting second in the lineup in front of Matt Kemp, but neither he nor Adam Kennedy nor the injured Ivan De Jesus look like the answer, and only one of the team's top 20 prospects is an infielder.
One of the Dodgers' underrated strengths is a starting rotation that has major league caliber talent 1 thru 5. Even though new acquisitions Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano profile as more middle to bottom of the rotation starters, the confidence instilled by not having any competition for spots in Spring Training cannot be overstated. Kershaw is signed to a deal that buys out his next two arbitration eligible seasons, but it would be foolish for Magic, Kasten, & Co. not to lock him up to a long term deal. Ted Lilly has bounced back nicely after starting the season on the DL (an astounding 93 points per game), and Chad Billingsley is out once again to prove that he can maintain his early-season success across 30 starts.
The closer role is in a bit of uncertainty with converted catcher Kenley Jansen taking over from sophomore Javy Guerra. The lone rookie on the roster, Josh Lindblom, has been outperforming both veteran relievers signed to $1+ million deals (Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey, both of whom have spent time on the DL already). Nathan Eovaldi, the Dodger's only player to appear on MLB's list of Top 100 Prospects (at 70) pitched just enough innings last year to miss qualifying as a rookie in '12. He spent some time on the roster, but never made it into a game - he was sent down when Ronald Belisario finished serving his 25-game suspension for testing positive for cocaine. Up until last week, the oldest player on the opening day roster was Jamey Wright (37), who made the squad as a non-roster invitee - he has since been surpassed by the 38-year-old Abreu.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Picture of the Week: 5/5/12
Albert Pujols shaved his trademark goatee and finally hit his first home run of the year. Coincidence?
Thursday, May 3, 2012
This Week on In-Depth Analysis...
Last week I outlined a schedule for the teams I would focus on for a weekly In-Depth Analysis feature. The first real team (not counting the Aries Rams astrology roster) was going to be the Philadelphia Phillies, due to a convergence of Philadelphia-centeric media/cultural events (National Pretzel Day and an episode of Undercover Boss featuring Philly Pretzel Factory). But when MLB Network's planned broadcast of the Phillies/Cubs game was preempted by the Dodgers/Nationals game (so that the world could get a look at Bryce Harper's underwhelming Major League debut), the central cog in my Phillies plan fell clattering to the cluttered floor of my blog-workshop.
I was left without a backup team waiting on deck, and the natural choice seemed to be the Phillies' broadcast replacement. I didn't watch Harper's debut game all the way through, but since the Dodgers are my local team, and thus are on TV that much more frequently (not to mention talked about around the city), I didn't feel I needed to sit down with a particular game of theirs to become familiar with the current roster.
Then when it was announced that the Dodgers' new ownership group officially took control of the team this week, that justified my choice. And when Jered Weaver of the Anaheim Angels (not OF Los Angeles, or anywhere else aside from Anaheim, or at least Orange County) pitched a no-hitter last night, that completely sealed the deal. You see, I couldn't give two shits about the Angels (in the parlance of our times), so it seems only right that I try to draw as much attention from them towards the team they're trying to steal market share from.
So sometime this weekend, get ready to hear all about Kemp and Kershaw; Mattingly, Magic and McCourt; and of course the incomparable Vin Scully as the boys in blue become the first team to undergo some... IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS!
I was left without a backup team waiting on deck, and the natural choice seemed to be the Phillies' broadcast replacement. I didn't watch Harper's debut game all the way through, but since the Dodgers are my local team, and thus are on TV that much more frequently (not to mention talked about around the city), I didn't feel I needed to sit down with a particular game of theirs to become familiar with the current roster.
Then when it was announced that the Dodgers' new ownership group officially took control of the team this week, that justified my choice. And when Jered Weaver of the Anaheim Angels (not OF Los Angeles, or anywhere else aside from Anaheim, or at least Orange County) pitched a no-hitter last night, that completely sealed the deal. You see, I couldn't give two shits about the Angels (in the parlance of our times), so it seems only right that I try to draw as much attention from them towards the team they're trying to steal market share from.
So sometime this weekend, get ready to hear all about Kemp and Kershaw; Mattingly, Magic and McCourt; and of course the incomparable Vin Scully as the boys in blue become the first team to undergo some... IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)