At this point, I have talked about every playoff race save two: the AL Central and the NL Wild Card. In the former race, things have been going pretty much as expected. Everybody knew the division would be up for grabs, and we're now just watching it play out until the end of the season. The Tigers have pulled away as the clear favorites, holding onto first place since May 10. They've made a couple of "win-now" moves to strengthen their ballclub (acquiring pitcher Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners and first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Orioles) and just hope to ride it out, letting the Twins and White Sox take care of each other.
Less than a week ago, the White Sox gave up second place to the Twins, a place in the standings they had previously held since the trade deadline. This was right about when they learned that their big acquisition from said deadline - Jake Peavy (2007's Cy Young Award winner), who was already injured at the time of the trade - had no real timetable for his return. Since then, they've apparently opted for influencing the races in the NL West rather than their own, trading aging slugger Jim Thome to the Dodgers and starter Jose Contreras to the Rockies. At the moment, they're banking on Peavy to come back healthy next year and to remain healthy all the way through 2012, when his current contract expires. And if he ends up being worth the guaranteed $52 million they'll have to spend on him, that's just the icing on the cake.
The Twins have been surging of late, despite a rotation ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness. Of the projected starting five, only Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn remain; Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano are injured, and Glen Perkins has been out of the rotation since the beginning of August. The remaining three spots currently belong to newly acquired veteran Carl Pavano, and some combination of rookies. We'll see if Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer can carry the offense and give the Tigers a run for their money down the stretch.
The Tigers' 4.5 game lead over the Twins isn't a lock, but given the statuses of the two teams, it looks pretty safe. It would be great if they battled it out towards the end, echoing last year's race between the Twins and the White Sox, which required a one game playoff to decide the division leader. Now, that was an exciting race and all (and a 1-0 White Sox victory in the one game playoff made it even more exciting), but let's not forget what happened to those same White Sox in the playoffs: they won a single game on their way to a beating by the AL East winning Tampa Bay Rays, the team that would eventually represent the AL in the World Series.
Given the other teams out there, I can't help but think that a similar fate is in store for whoever ends up winning the Central division. I know it's not fair to discount a team that's played well for the whole season, and I know that pretty much anything can happen in the first round of the playoffs, which is, after all, just a best-of-five series. But whatever powers of foresight I possess are telling me that the Tigers and the Twins (and now especially the White Sox) are unlikely contenders at best.
And it's not just gut feeling, either; their records bear this theory out as well. The Tigers are in first place in their division with 71 wins. The other first place teams have 85 wins (Yankees) and 78 wins (Angels). The two other second place teams have 77 wins (Red Sox) and 75 wins (Rangers). Both of these teams - the two teams competing for the AL Wild Card (see the previous post) - have outperformed the Tigers pretty significantly. Now look at the two other third place teams: the Rays (72 wins) and the Mariners (70 wins). So if the Tigers were in any other division, they wouldn't be anywhere close to the playoff hunt.*
*I know this is a ridiculous "if" here, because if the Tigers were in any other division, they would be playing the majority of their games against teams from that division, and the schedule would be different and all that counter-factual stuff that you have to take into account. Just for kicks, the Tigers have played .591 ball against their division rivals (29-20), .611 vs. the AL West (22-14), and .344 vs. the AL East (10-19). So they've actually played better in their division than out of it (.429 against the East and the West combined). But all this is nothing but fleeting conjecture.
A lot of fans like to see the less likely team blow by the favorites and take the playoffs by storm. I on the other hand stand content to watch the powerhouses steamroll the lesser teams and battle it out amongst themselves. Because, for me, a good Clash of the Titans story always beats out a good Underdog story. And vice versa.
Should the Tigers make it into the postseason as is now expected, I could see them having a shot to advance past the ALDS primarily on the strength of their pitching. Edwin Jackson has emerged as a a frontline starter, sporting a ERA+ of 148, better than the 135 of a career-year Justin Verlander. And then there's Rick Porcello - whose ballooning ERA (to 4.18, not awful just not fantastic - has probably taken him out of ROTY candidacy, but he has managed to win 12 games. I'll admit there's a huge caveat to Porcello for the postseason: none of his wins have come against Boston, NY, or LA. Oops.
ReplyDeleteStill, should the Tigers make it to the end of a postseason nailbiter with a lead, they have one of the most reliable closers this year - Fernando Rodney - to the shut the door for them. He's only blown 1 save this year in 32 opportunities. I'll take that.
Their anemic offense will win them nothing, but if the boys on the bump show up to play, they have a shot to keep things interesting.