Monday, March 14, 2016

Magic Creature Types Analysis

Magic: The Gathering is a game made for humans by humans... except of course for the nefarious Gleemax. This fact is true of most (if not all) table top games, but it's especially relevant to this discussion of the types of creatures that exist in the Magic universe. Because Magic is also a game of creatures, which players summon to fight for them: of the seven card types in the game, creatures are by far the most numerous, with more than 8,000 creature cards in the official Magic database. (Enchantments are the next most common type, and their total barely cracks 2,000.) And, as might be expected in a game played primarily by humans, the relative majority of all creatures in the game are of the Human subtype.

In addition to being a game of humans and creatures, Magic is also game of colors, since most cards in the game are identified with one of the five colors of mana: White, blUe, Black, Red, Green. So the next logical question when talking about humans in Magic is how they are broken down across the color wheel. To answer this question, I'm turning to some research I did after the release of the Magic 2015 expansion. The last core set of its kind, M15 was actually released in mid-2014, so while the numbers won't be exactly accurate, the general trends should still hold true. To exhibit these trends, here is a list of the top 40 creature types in Magic, color coded to reflect the most common color among each creature type:


Just reading down the first three columns should give you a pretty good idea of the kind of fantasy world in which Magic takes place and the kinds of creatures that occupy this world. The next step is to give you a quick overview of each color's most common creature type, but first I want to explain why each color has two columns devoted to it. This is to distinguish the total number of creatures that have a particular color in their mana cost (which could be just one out of multiple colors) from the creatures that contain ONLY that color in their mana cost. So for example, there are 676 total white-aligned human creatures, 581 of which are mono-white, and 95 of which are multicolored with white being just one of its elements. A small distinction perhaps, but it may become important later.

Sticking with White-aligned Humans (notice I've steered clear of saying "white humans" to avoid confusion with the caucasian ethnicity), I do not find it surprising that the majority of human creatures in the game are associated with white mana. White is the color of order and law, and any human who plays Magic has to have at least somewhat of an orderly mind: not only to learn and remember all the rules, but also to construct an effective deck, and to keep track of all the complicated twists and turns that happen while playing an actual game.

The most common type among blue creatures is not a race (as in "the human race"), but rather a class, which is a term in the popular role-playing game Dungeons and Dragons to describe an adventurer's chosen occupation. The prototypical blue class is Wizard, which makes sense because the discipline and knowledge required for casting spells are very blue attributes. Now it was kind of a tautology when I said that Magic was a game made by humans for humans, but it's also a game made by wizards (quite literally by the Hasbro subsidiary Wizards of the Coast, which also publishes D&D) and arguably made FOR wizards. I know that Magic players technically take on the role of Planeswalker, powerful mages that can travel between the many worlds of the Magic multiverse, but I mean come on, the main thing you do in the game is cast spells, which is the most wizardy thing possible.

Race and Class are terms used in DnD, but Magic uses the term Tribes to describe creature types that work well in a deck together. The reason for that is to account for creatures such as Black's most common type, the Zombie. Being a zombie is something that happens to a creature and has nothing to do with race and class - it's neither an innate characteristic of that creature nor something that creature chooses to do. However "Tribal Zombies" is a perfectly legit Magic term to describe a deck made out of mostly creatures of the Zombie type. Which, if you follow the metagame, is a good strategy to become familiar with, since the next Magic expansion set takes place in the gothic horror themed plane of Innistrad.

Moving around the color wheel to Red, we find the other color that has humans as its most common creature type. (Humans are the second-most common type in the other three colors.) But since we've already talked enough about humans, let's move on to Red's second most common creature type, and also skip ahead so we can compare it directly to Green's most common: Goblins and Elves, respectively. Both of these races show up in the "Big 3" touchstones of the fantasy genre, in my opinion: Dungeons & Dragons, The Lord of the Rings, and the computer game EverQuest, with the difference that Elves are most commonly aligned with Good (i.e. you can play as Elves) and Goblins are usually Evil (i.e. you usually fight against them). They're also similar, at least in the world of Magic, in that they work well together, and they're much better in numbers. In fact, the first Magic product that provided two themed Decks specifically designed to Duel against each other was called Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins.

Now that we know the top creature type of each color, let's go a little more in-depth. We've seen the races most associated with Red and Green, but the other three colors get into the racial game as well. The Blue race of choice is Merfolk, which are sort of like a cross between Disney's The Little Mermaid and the Sahuagin from D&D. It's a little bit of a stretch to call Vampires Black's top race, because some mythologies see vampirism as an affliction rather than a genetic characteristic, but I think it mostly works the latter way in Magic. The most numerous non-human White race is Cat, but only some of the cards of that type represent the anthropomorphic Leonin (akin to EverQuest's Vah Shir), as opposed to lions or tigers etc. White also has the most Kithkin, which are Magic's version of Halflings or Hobbits, and most Magic Dwarves are Red.


W NOTE: Spirits are basically
Magic's version of ghosts.
We've talked about how the Wizard class from Dungeons and Dragons is well represented in Magic, but in fact many of D&D's 12 classes make appearances on Magic card types. Starting at the top of the color wheel, we see that White boasts a good amount of Clerics, which are the prototypical healer class in both games, in that they both excel at preventing damage and regaining lost life (or hit points). White also has the most creatures with the subtype Knight (which can be roughly equated to Paladins in D&D) and Monk, making it the most Dungeon-y color.

U NOTE: Illusion is a school of Magic in D&D.
B NOTE: Horror is the only creature type that's also a film genre.
Blue doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of creature types that correlate with D&D classes: the only one in its top ten is Rogue, which it technically shares with Black, since there are more overall Blue Rogues (including multicolored, or Gold, cards), but more Mono-Black ones. Black also leads in creatures of the Assassin type, which is a special type of Rogue in D&D Fifth Edition. Black also has a good amount of Warriors, Shamans, Clerics, and Knights, but since these classes are covered in other colors (and one of them isn't even in the newest version of D&D), I'll leave them out here. Suffice it to say that Black shares elements with many other colors, but that versatility usually comes with an extra cost.

R NOTE: Dragons are one half of D&D.
Red has the lead in Warrior creatures, which share the most with the Fighter class - willing to be on the front lines in combat, dealing a lot of damage with little regard for their own well-being. There are some elements of the fighter class represented in the Soldier creature type, which is predictably best represented by White mana, because you need a strong sense of order to work as part of a team on the battlefield. But this is not a perfect correlation because not all professional soldiers have what it takes to be an adventuring Fighter. Red also predictably has the lead in Berserkers and Barbarians, each of which could be combined under the Barbarian in D&D, a class which is fueled by pure rage.

G NOTE: Beast is a good way to
describe most of Green's creatures.
The true D&D class that's most represented by Green creatures is Druid, and it's important to note the differences across the two formats. Magic Druids usually help you find lands or create mana, whereas D&D Druids are known as shapechangers, a feature usually reserved for Shamans in Magic (which are no longer a class in the new version of D&D). Needless to say then, Druids are extremely useful in Magic, since mana is the resource that all decks need to cast their spells. There are actually more Green Warriors than there are Druids, but we've already talked about them because there are more Red Warriors than Green ones. While there are no Ranger creature types in Magic, there are several cards with Ranger in the name: these cards are mostly green and they range in types from Scout and Archer to Soldier and Warrior. There are only three cards in all of Magic with Bard in the name: they are all Green, two of them are Rogues, and one is strangely enough a Shaman.

So that's (hopefully) all the information you could ever want about creature types in Magic: The Gathering. If you're hungry for more info, you can check out the official Gatherer database, but I actually prefer the lower-key magiccards.info. But there's also a world of Magic that's totally separate from the mechanics on the cards themselves, which is explored in the art, flavor text, and fan fiction that appears weekly on the official Magic site (if you know where to look. It is a confusing site). And remember, just keep telling yourself that it's totally cool to be a nerd.

Saturday, March 5, 2016

All-NRI Teams 2016

Spring Training games started in earnest this week, and as such we get to see a special class of baseball players who only exist in the weeks directly preceding Opening Day: the non-roster invitee. The typical NRI's are free agents who didn't land Major League contracts in the offseason, but who were deemed promising enough to compete for a spot on the big league roster in Spring Training. You also see a fair amount of hot prospects and organizational minor league depth in big league camp every year, but I'm focusing on players with big league experience for my purpose here - creating rosters from the top NRI's in each league.

So without further ado, let's jump right into the depth charts. Here are the top National League Non Roster Invitees, as determined by my painstaking research and carefully crafted opinions.


J.P. Arencibia put on a power display last year with the Rays and he has a pretty good shot to crack a weak Phillies roster, even though there are two right handed hitting catchers in front of him on the depth chart. Backup Ryan Lavarnway has spent time at first, which means he can also back up Kyle Blanks, who was lucky enough to latch on with the Giants in an even-numbered year. Elian Herrera scored the most fantasy points of all NL NRI infielders last year, and his versatility will allow him to man second base while Will Middlebrooks takes third - the position he has a good chance to win with the Brewers' big club this year. The best choices for shortstop are two top-ten prospects with no MLB experience, but if neither J.P. Crawford (5) nor Dansby Swanson (8) are ready to start the year, defensive whiz Brendan Ryan or super utility type Adam Rosales can fill in.

Jeff Francoeur might not be a lock to make the Braves roster out of Spring Training after returning to his original club, but he had by far the best 2015 season of any outfielder in this group. Shane Victorino has had a very good career, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him land with another team before the end of Spring Training - his minors deal with the Cubs was finalized just moments before the club re-signed center fielder Dexter Fowler. He could form a left field platoon with lefties Matt Joyce and/or Shane Peterson, the latter of which could also platoon with Jason Bourgeois in center. That leaves Justin Maxwell and Skip Schumaker as bench platoon options, although obviously not all 7 of them can make this hypothetical club.


On paper, it looks like Jhoulys Chacin is the most likely NRI pitcher to make an MLB roster out of Spring Training: he's the only NRI pitcher ranked within the top 600 by MLB.com (as of the start of Spring Training last Sunday) who also reached the majors in 2015. Chacin actually pitched very well for Cleveland last year, which led to the Braves picking him up to try and fill one of the two to three wide open spots in their rotation (along with another member of this list, Kyle Kendrick). Brandon Morrow gets a spot on this list because of his stellar five starts with San Diego last year (which caused the Padres to re-sign him to a minors deal), even though he missed most of the season due to shoulder problems and then hasn't been able to rehab most of the winter because of illness. Similarly, Brandon Beachy is back with the Dodgers after another injury-ravaged season, but he'll get a chance to compete for a rotation spot in a similarly injury-ravaged Dodgers rotation.

Bronson Arroyo is the only veteran on this list who didn't pitch at all in 2015, but his situation last year was so strange (his contract was traded twice despite the fact that he was never ready to pitch) and his comeback attempt this winter has been so public, that you can't help but root for him to make it back to the majors. Julio Urias and Lucas Giolito make the list because they're the #3 and #4 ranked prospects in the majors, respectively.

The three NL NRI relievers with the most recent closer experience are Casey Janssen, who finished games for the Blue Jays from 2012-14, Ernesto Frieri, the Angels' closer in parts of the same three year span, and Edward Mujica, who served as the Cardinals' closer in 2013. Andrew Bailey and Jim Henderson have closed in the past, but neither of them spent significant time in the majors last year. There is no shortage of solid middle relievers to bridge the gap to the ninth inning, such as Alexi Ogando, Blaine Boyer, Jean Machi, and Carlos Torres. And for lefty specialists, the NL has Alex Torres (no relation), Manny Parra, and James Russell to choose from - Chris Narveson and Chris Capuano are also lefties, but they profile as more long relief/swingman types.


Michael McKenry's 2015 offensive stats might have been inflated due to Coors Field, but he's still a quality receiver who if nothing else can serve as a platoon mate for switch hitting Carlos Corporan. Ike Davis began last year as Oakland's starting first baseman and he's still got some potential in his bat, despite a tough road to 1B/DH at bats in his new home of Texas. If he needs a platoon partner against lefties, one need look no further than Korean import Dae-Ho Lee, who will hope to play that same role with the Mariners this year. Or even Casey McGehee, who was signed by Detroit presumably to light a fire under Nick Castellanos. But the crown jewel of this year's NRI class is Jimmy Rollins, who was all but handed the White Sox's starting shortstop job, even despite his minor league deal. This means that Clint Barmes and Josh Rutledge will have to battle it out for the second base position.

Travis Snider and Will Venable have real shots to start the season in the big leagues due to injuries (to Jarrod Dyson on the Royals) and suspensions (to Abraham Almonte on the Indians) to the projected starters, so they are pretty much locks for this team. Domonic Brown was once a top prospect with the Phillies and if the Blue Jays don't end up trading for Jay Bruce, he could be in line for some playing time in left field this year. Each of these left handed hitting outfielders also have a nice platoon partner to work with: Shane Robinson, Drew Stubbs, and Allen Craig, respectively.


The AL NRI rotation has three solid players at the top, but falls off kind of drastically after that. Jeremy Guthrie (24 starts in 2015), Wandy Rodriguez (15), and Roberto Hernandez (11) all spent significant time in the majors last year, but neither have a clear path back to the show in 2016, barring injuries. The only other starters who pitched more than one game in 2015 and scored positive points are Dillon Gee and Sean O'Sullivan (David Huff suffered through a negative points season and Brad Mills only made one appearance). But there are a number of veterans with upside who missed 2015, such as A.J. Griffin, Chien-Ming Wang, and Brad Penny. Jose Berrios is the lone prospect on this list, clocking in at #19 on the top 100, but as his overall rank of 305 suggests, he's practically a lock to crack the Twins rotation this year.

Quality right handed depth is also an issue for the AL NRI bullpen, which has former closers David Aardsma, Joba Chamberlain, and Bobby Parnell, although two of that trio barely pitched in 2015. The most accomplished reliever of the group is Joel Peralta who, along with Ross Ohlendorf, are the only two non-starters to average more than 10 points per game in 2015. However this team is actually not short on left handed relievers, as Cesar Ramos and Brian Duensing enjoyed moderate success last year, with Fernando Abad and Joe Thatcher primed for bounceback years. Former starters Tom Gorzelanny and Dana Eveland (also left handed) are candidates for the long relief spot.


Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Dungeons and Dragons: Tonio in the Temple of Shar

Tonio Mancuso,
Human Cleric/Rogue
"I suggest you all close your eyes and hold your breath."

That's the advice Jaycie Hart gave before finishing up a teleportation circle that would bring all six of the members of her adventuring party - and their guest - far away from this accursed dungeon.  Tonio Mancuso had tried to oblige, being one to generally follow orders, as long as they didn't directly contradict his well-being. But at some point during his seemingly interminable extra dimensional journey, something unexpected happened to Tonio: he got a plan. 

With an admittedly well below average intellect, logically formulating a strategy wasn't Tonio's strongpoint, but he did have a tremendously insightful mind. This particular insight came too late, as was the case with too many of Tonio's brainstorms. It was the solution to a little dungeoneering riddle, as it were: Tonio had wanted to release some dangerous demons that were being held captive in the hostile dungeon that he and his friends inhabited, hoping that they would wreak havoc on their evil captors, but if he opened their cages, the demons would most certainly have attack his friends first. It was a real head-scratcher...

A little explanation: Tonio and his five companions had just finished subduing the lesser noblemen and pesky guards protecting the inner sanctum of the temple of Shar, the evil goddess of death and loss, and they had their main antagonist entrapped in TWO different kinds of magical restraints. But just as our heroes were about to interrogate the powerful mind mage named Grayson Bailey about his master plans, he somehow teleported away. It was only a matter of time before he would return to the material plane and alert the rest of his forces to their presence. And the party still had the matter of the werewolf to deal with.

Felix Mancuso,
Human Fighter
You see, locked in a cell in this inner sanctum (several rooms away from the aforementioned demons' cells) was the feral hybrid form of one of this group's former allies, Isabella Cooper. Bella, as she liked to be called, had been trained by the grizzled, one-eyed elf named Cathan Evenwind, who had taken her defeat and capture the hardest out of anyone. As soon as their enemy had vanished, the group turned their attention to Bella's cell door. 

"Get behind me, brother!" suggested Tonio's brother Felix Mancuso. "I can try to wrestle down SeƱorita Cooper in case she attacks."

"Good idea, brother!" agreed Tonio as he racked his brain to remember the correct spell to prepare in this situation. Felix puffed out his armored chest and bravely awaited whatever might come through that door. Tonio admired his tougher brother, as strong and fearless as Tonio was quick and level-headed, and more logical to boot.

Alphonse Sapperstein III,
Half-Elf Bard
"Now, Jaycie, you have means to restrain that thing when it comes out of there, right?" queried the charming half elf Alphonse Sapperstein III, the self-proclaimed mouthpiece of the party - which is a polite way of saying he was absolutely useless in this particular situation.

"Don't worry," Jaycie responded with a flip of her hair. "I'm an abjurer, remember?"

"So Gentlemen, and lady, to clarify the plan," ventured Thelios Melekor, the fearsome horned Tiefling, in his signature guttural growl. "We slay this mongrel cur and then be on our way?"

"We will do NOTHING of the sort," decreed Cathan, his one good eye fixed monomaniacally on the cell door, behind which a fearsome snarling could be heard. "If there's any chance Bella is still in there, in that thing's head... I have to try and save her."

"Come now, Cathan," scolded Thelios. "Surely there's nothing left of what was once your friend than a bag of fur and rage. It's best we put the beast out of its misery."

"Not before I've looked into her eyes!" bellowed Cathan, as he threw open the door.

The hinges creaked.

The snarling fell silent.

But just for a moment.

In a blinding flash, a gray whirl of claws and teeth came hurtling out of the cell. Jaycie at once fired off one of her signature spells. But the verbal components of Otiluke's Resilient Sphere fell on deaf ears, as Bella deftly dodged away from the magic.

Cathan Evenwind, Elf Arcane Trickster


But then Cathan was there, at the opening of the cell, grappling with his former pupil.

"Cathan!" cried Jaycie. "Don't get bit!"

"Bella!" the elf shouted. "Bella, can you hear me? Are you in there?" If there was indeed a pang of recognition in her clouded eyes, it was not enough to soothe her savage mood.

"That's enough!" fumed Thelios. "I'm going to hit that thing with an Eldritch Blast if it comes any closer!" The Tiefling raised up his hand and began muttering.

"Will everyone please CALM THEIR EMOTIONS!?" shouted a triumphant Tonio, having remembered just the spell. Sometimes his insights came at exactly the right time.

Bella's nose twitched, her eyes blinked, her limbs relaxed in Cathan's grip somewhat, and she didn't seem to want to bite anyone's head off anymore. She also didn't seem to have much awareness of her situation except that she wanted to be free of that cell and continued to struggle against her former mentor.

"She'll only be soothed for a minute, amigos," Tonio explained. "I suggest someone come up with a plan!"

"Alright, I'll bring her with me," Cathan ventured. He pulled a length of rope from his pack and made it fast to a belt around Bella's waist, which still held the dual crossbows she once used while in human form. "I'll take her back to the cottage. None of you need accompany me, this is my burden."

Thelios Melekor, Tiefling Warlock
"EXCUSE ME!?" bellowed Thelios. "Your plan is to take a werewolf out onto the streets of Minos... on a leash... on a Monday morning... and bring it back to OUR house!?!? That is absolutely, one hundred percent not happening!"

"Well do you have a better idea!?" cried Cathan, almost in tears. "I will not just leave her!"

"You mean, leave her again?" taunted Thelios.

"Thirty seconds!" shouted a panicked Tonio. "So you should Ɣndale too, brother. We might need you here."

"Understood, brother!" Felix and Alphonse were taking this opportunity to investigate the inner sanctum: they had already uncovered several valuable items and a relic that they had been seeking, which belonged to the temple of Tymora, Shar's rival deity. Felix was just now attempting to roll up a giant tapestry that covered up a hidden cache.

Jaycie Hart, Human Abjurer
"I can get us out of here," offered Jaycie, producing a shimmery pink liquid from her purse. "But Bella needs to drink this. And then she needs to look at you."

"What is it?" asked Cathan, in a daze.

"It contains the power of love..." declared Jaycie in a mystical tone. "It's our only chance to keep her from attacking us. Then you need to make sure nothing bothers me for a minute."

"Cathan, are you sure this is wise?" asked Thelios. "Are you ready to take on this... responsibility?"

Cathan flashed his companion a sad smile. "She was never not my responsibility," he said, as he uncorked the bottle and used prestidigitation to make its contents smell like day old meat. "Here, girl," Cathan sobbed. "Drink up."

Bella took the last sips of the elixir as Jaycie settled into the back corner of the room and started tracing lines on the floor with Thelios standing guard. Bella glanced down at Cathan, a look of loyalty and serenity falling across her canine features.

"If you don't mind me interrupting this tender moment," ventured Alphonse. "What is it you're doing over there, Jaycie?"

"Teleportation circle," the abjurer responded tersely in between incantations. "I'm bringing us all to the Elven city of Selk. Cathan's got people there who hopefully can help."

Thelios started. "Selk? But our mission is here in Minos!"

"Honey, in case you didn't notice, we just pissed off one of the most powerful people I've ever seen in Minos," huffed Jaycie. "AND he knows who we are, and where we live. So the farther we are from Minos the better." 

"In that case, brother," added Felix, "might it be wise to unlock the demon's cells we passed on the way in, to create some chaos to cover our departure?"

"Good idea, brother!" agreed Tonio. "I'll use my thieves' tools to unlock it and..."

"But don't forget, that door is trapped!" reminded Alphonse, recalling an earlier plot point. "And how will we prevent them from attacking us, or following us to Selk?"

"You'd better figure it out quick," called Jaycie. "We've got about six seconds to all jump through this portal, then it closes forever!"

"Ay, manda huevos! Forget it!" resigned Tonio. Although it would be gratifying to think of their own pet demons terrorizing the followers of this foul death goddess, thought Tonio to himself as he stepped across the threshold.

Then he got it.

Get the bard or the arcane trickster or maybe even the warlock to create a minor illusion of a closed cell door, obscuring the real door as Tonio bypassed the trap and picked the lock. Then right before they teleported away, drop the illusion, and they'd be long gone before the baddies noticed they were free.

It was a rare moment for Tonio. And in the shock of it, he gasped, and opened his eyes.


He saw things he couldn't describe. He felt like he was at once traveling infinitely fast and standing very still. He felt like his mind was beginning to unravel.

He saw his intuitive mind go first, the strongest part of him. He saw it float into the blind eternities. But then to his surprise, he saw something else begin to unravel, and it did not belong to him. It was his brother's staunch presence, his comforting hardiness, and as it joined with the tatters of his mind, it somehow felt like it was fortifying his soul.

Then a voice began to unravel and meld itself with the two other elements, and the voice was that of Alphonse. True it was screaming in abject horror at the experience of long-range teleportation, but the sound of it was strangely comforting all the same.

Then the teleportation itself began to unravel, but not so much the mode of conveyance, but the fact that it had originated from Jaycie's skill and knowledge. Tonio saw what was quite literally the brains of the party become deconstructed and subsequently become one with all the rest.

Thelios was next, and it was his strength that melted away, but not necessarily strength of arms, although the Tiefling wasn't lacking in that regard; rather the strength of his convictions that made him steadfastly pursue any course of action to the end. This strength joined with the others and made them all stronger.

Isabella Cooper, currently a werewolf
The last to go was Cathan's nimble grace, and he was using all of it at the moment to support Bella, the main goal of this quest, as she hurtled through an experience she could not begin to comprehend in her present state. It was because of Cathan that they were headed to Selk, in more ways than one, and he would certainly need all his quickness of limb to navigate the treacherous new terrain of the adventure upon which they were embarking.

But for now, Cathan's dexterity, Thelios's strength, Jaycie's intelligence, Alphonse's charisma, Felix's constitution, and Tonio's wisdom were all disembodied and joined together in a beautiful teleportation-induced hallucination. The younger Mancuso twin felt as though he was just beginning to understand where his group of adventurers fit in the grand scheme of the multiverse...

Then, with a sudden stop, they reached Selk.

Monday, February 29, 2016

MLB Fantasy Ranks Changes and Trends v1

Last night the American motion picture industry gave out its most prestigious bunch of awards, with Mad Max: Fury Road impressed with its technical wizardry, Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubezki made history by winning the cinematography prize three years in a row for his work on The Revenant (director Alejandro G. IƱƔrritu won his branch's award in back to back years), legendary composer Ennio Morricone took home his first competitive Oscar for The Hateful Eight, and Spotlight won the biggest prize of them all. But something even more momentous also went down yesterday: a Major League baseball team suited up and took the field in competitive action for the first time in 2016!

True it was a pure exhibition matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the University of Tampa Spartans, but it symbolically signals the start of Spring Training and time for everyone to care about baseball again! To commemorate this joyous day, I plugged a new set of rankings into my baseball database and compared the results to the last time I did such a thing, which happened to be Valentine's Day. However, rather than revising my updated depth charts for all the teams, I decided to focus on which players had significant changes in their rankings, whether positive or negative, and examine some of the reasons behind these changes. Here are some of the notable changes, grouped by team/transaction.

Baltimore Orioles


A change of three ranks one way or another is never all that significant, but when it involves a new member of the overall top ten (such as when Manny Machado improved from 11 to 8), I feel like it's worth mentioning. The other positive change for Baltimore, Mark Trumbo's improvement of 19 ranks from 147 to 128, seems to be directly related to the O's failing to follow through on their reported free agent deal with Dexter Fowler. One of the trickle down effects of that non-transaction is that Trumbo is now in line to receive most of the playing time in right field as opposed to DH/backup 1B duties, much to the chagrin of Orioles pitchers. Speaking of Orioles pitchers, the actually-completed free agent deal with Yovani Gallardo means that folks who were once in line to compete for Baltimore's fifth starter spot (most notably Vance Worley, who dropped a staggering 84 spots in the rankings from 537 to 621, but also Odrisamer Despaigne and Mike Wright) are now ticketed to the bullpen or the minors.


Chicago Cubs


Speaking of Dexter Fowler, his surprise decision to re-sign with the Cubs had some natural implications on their outfield alignment. First, catcher-turned-outfielder Kyle Schwarber dropped 11 ranks (from 49 to a still very respectable 60), which probably represents the shorter leash the youngster will be on with Jason Heyward now occupying the other corner outfield spot in Chicago. But the real impacts of this move are on Jorge Soler, who suffered a full 237-rank dropoff (from 188 to 425) when he was effectively demoted from projected starting right fielder to fourth outfielder/minor league depth, and Javier Baez (a 159-rank drop, from 483 to 634), who had been slated as a super utility type until Fowler returned to the fold. I don't know if this promising kid is ever gonna get a chance to play...


Oakland Athletics


Speaking of super utility types, the Fowler signing also made Chris Coghlan somewhat superfluous in Chicago, so the Cubs dealt him to the Athletics, where he'll back up all three outfield spots and also probably see some time at second and third base. Strangely enough, while this move would likely grant him more playing time, Coghlan's rank dropped by 61 places (from 471 to 532) upon being traded. Maybe this change reflects the less friendly offensive environment in Oakland, but that doesn't explain why Khris Davis went UP 73 ranks (from 277 to 204) after his trade to the A's. What does make sense is that infield and outfield depth pieces Eric Sogard, Sam Fuld, and Jake Smolinski all took rankings tumbles due to those two moves.


Tampa Bay Rays


Another move that had far reaching rankings implications was the trade of DH/LF/1B Corey Dickerson from the Rockies to the Rays for RP Jake McGee. The centerpiece of that deal for Tampa Bay himself dropped 22 spots (from 114 to 136), which pretty accurately reflects what happens when a slugger leaves Coors Field. This move directly led to the loss of 133 ranking spots between James Loney (395 to 454, loss of 59) and Logan Morrison (401 to 475, loss of 74), the two 1B/DH candidates who Dickerson effectively replaced. The only player to benefit from the trade was right fielder Steven Souza who jumped 87 ranks (from 413 to 326), reinforcing the value of right-handed power - the three other players affected in this transaction all swing from the left side.


Texas Rangers


Josh Hamilton's injury that will cause him to start the year on the disabled list - and which caused him to drop 138 spots in the rankings, from 421 to 559 - has sent ripples through the entire remaining free agent class. However, the above rankings were captured one day before the Rangers made the unorthodox decision to sign shortstop Ian Desmond and move him left field. Prior to the signing, his rankings understandably took a tumble due to his increased time on the open market (he fell 31 spots from 96 to 127), but then curiously CONTINUED to drop (another 14 spots to 141) even after the transaction was announced. Texas's in-house candidates Joey Gallo and Ryan Rua had brief jumps in the rankings before Desmond's signing, but if you check back today, you'll see that they've since dropped back to their Valentine's Day levels.


Chicago White Sox


When Chicago signed Jimmy Rollins to a minor league deal, which effectively amounted to a handshake agreement that the starting shortstop job is his to lose, he saw his stock increase a modest 22 ranks (from 322 to 290). This transaction caused a precipitous drop in the stock of Tyler Saladino (159 spots, from 369 to 528), as he essentially became a utility infielder, and Carlos Sanchez (42 spots, from the already pretty irrelevant 703 to the nail-in-the-coffin-of-his-playing-time 745), as he is now essentially minor league depth. Of note: new third baseman Todd Frazier dropped 9 spots (from 59 to 68), which would normally not be significant, but no one else in that rank range had negative movement.


Cleveland Indians


Similarly, when Cleveland announced the signing of veteran infielder Juan Uribe (who jumped 120 spots, from 561 to 441), incumbent starter Giovanny Urshela dropped 145 spots (485 to 630) when he was relegated to a utility role. Strangely enough, potential platoon partner Jose Ramirez IMPROVED by 53 spots (from 558 to 505) upon Uribe's signing, even though he would presumably have the played the same role with Urshela. Abraham Almonte's 80 game suspension obviously caused him to lose ground (to the tune of 187 spots, dropping all the way from 500 to 687), but curiously Will Venable, the guy they brought in to replace him, dropped 39 spots upon signing his a minor league deal with the club (from 492 to 531). On a seemingly unrelated note, apparently Michael Brantley's injury got less severe, as he was upgraded 106 spots from just outside the top 300 (303) to just inside the top 200 (197).


Colorado Rockies


Speaking of suspensions, Jose Reyes dropped 154 spots (from 171 to 325) when the Rockies placed him on administrative leave due to his pending trial. Top prospect Trevor Story jumped 122 spots (from 607 to 485) with the expectation that he'll be fast tracked to the majors in the meantime.


And lastly, a handful of positional battles:

- Trea Turner (up 42 spots from 439 to 397) has apparently edged out Danny Espinosa (dropped 31 spots from 415 to 446) in the battle for the Nationals starting shortstop gig.

- While A.J. Ramos (down 29 spots, from 179 to 208) still has the inside track on the Marlins closer role, hard throwing Carter Capps (up 44 spots from 269 to 225) is on an upward trajectory.

- In the Angels rotation, Hector Santiago is trending up (up 42 spots, from 354 to 312) and Matt Shoemaker is trending down (down 51 spots, from 323 to 374).

- Veteran A.J. Pierzynski (down 20 spots, from 447 to 467) is still ranked ahead of Tyler Flowers (up 15 spots, from 554 to 539) on the Braves depth chart at catcher, but it is interesting to note the trends.


Spring Training games start up in earnest tomorrow, so these rankings are sure to fluctuate depending on how players perform in Arizona and Florida. Keep watching the diamonds!

Monday, February 15, 2016

MLB Fantasy Ranks Analysis 2016

Baseball is a team sport, but in order for a team to be successful, it must be comprised of several successful players. Preseason fantasy rankings are a good tool for determining how successful any given player will be in the upcoming season. None of this is new information -- the new information is contained in the 2016 preseason fantasy rankings first posted on MLB.com last week! Now, when you compulsively keep a database of each team's 40 man roster like I do, it's easy to plug these rankings into it and project a pretty decent starting lineup/roster. This was how I spent my Valentine's Day in 2016...

Rather than analyze any one team in depth (for now) I looked at how the rankings were distributed across positional lines, as I did at this time in the offseason last year. I took each team 19 players deep, which sounds like a random number, until you realize it's one of each position player, five starters, three relievers, and three of either a) one DH and two bench players, or b) three bench players. I've determined a purely numerical list of power rankings based on the aggregate ranks of those 19 players, and then made a huge color tapestry style spreadsheet out of the raw data, and posted all of it below:

Click on the image to expand. I recommend opening it in a new window for a side-by-side experience!

Wow, that's a lot of numbers. Good thing I'm here to explain them all, huh? First of all, for the abridged version of the chart, direct your eyes to the three columns on the left. These show all 30 teams (each one crudely color-coded, no less), arranged from best to worst, by the sum total of the fantasy rankings of their projected top 19 contributors. If you follow one team's column all the way across, you'll see the rank for each of that team's projected top contributors at each position.  Now while it might seem inhumane to reduce a living breathing baseball player to a number, think of how big this chart would have been if I used names (not too mention how much harder to sort it would be). I've also included a column for each team's rotation and bullpen -- these columns were of course left out of the total aggregate rank for each team.

As for the color-coding within the positional boxes, it's pretty self-explanatory: green is the top-ranked player at each position and red is the bottom-ranked one. Some of the outfield rankings might not totally reflect the actual rosters, because I treated the two corner outfield spots as interchangeable, but we're really measuring player quality rather than realistic accuracy. I added two extra colors in the DH column as well, to separate between the 15 AL teams that must field a DH position (using the traditional green and red system) from the 15 NL teams for which this column represents essentially another bench spot (muted green and orange). The magenta highlighted spots represent ranks of players that are not currently on a team's 40-man roster (i.e. non-roster invitees or minor league depth).

If you want to see which players correspond to which positions, you can use MLB's 2016 fantasy player preview, but I'll provide some highlights below.

Starting Pitcher (BEST)
1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (5)
2. Jacob deGrom, NYM (38)
3. Noah Syndergaard, NYM (54)
4. Steven Matz, NYM (137)
5. Jason Hammel, CHC (183)

Kershaw is once again the only pitcher ranked in the top 10 (he also held down number 5 last year), despite losing out on the Cy Young award to Jake Arrieta (the next-highest ranked pitcher at 16; followed by Max Scherzer at 17). The next three spots in the rotation are all filled by members of the New York Mets: deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz played significant roles in helping the New York NL get to the World Series next year, and they're all young enough to show some improvement, which is a scary thought. On a side note, Mets ace Matt Harvey ranks fifth behind the above-mentioned three aces, plus Chris Sale, and Madison Bumgarner. Jason Hammel of the Cubs is the only fifth starter ranked in the top 200 players, so it's no surprise that Chicago's depth makes them the best overall staff.

Starting Pitcher (WORST)
26. Jon Gray, COL (356)
27. Matt Wisler, ATL (466)
28. Bud Norris, ATL (514)
29. Jordan Lyles, COL (588)
30. David Hale, COL (683)

The Rockies and the Braves are locked into a competition for the game's worst starting pitching, with all five of the bottom ranked starters coming from one of these two clubs. Interestingly enough, Colorado got the reverse-honors on the last two rotation slots, even though Atlanta's projected 4th and 5th starters aren't even on their 40-man roster -- they project as newly-acquired rookie Aaron Blair and former Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin, both invited to big league Spring Training camp this year.

Relief Pitcher (BEST)
1. Wade Davis, KCR (55)
2. Dellin Betances, NYY (201)
3. Andrew Miller, NYY (254)

It's a little scary (for opposing hitters, that is) to project what Wade Davis might do with a full season as closer now that incumbent Greg Holland has been non-tendered by Kansas City following Tommy John surgery. He narrowly beats out twice-traded Craig Kimbrel (60, acquired by the Red Sox) and once-traded Aroldis Chapman (71, acquired by the Yankees) for the top spot. Speaking of theYankees, the addition of Chapman pushes their 2015 pair of closers, Miller and Betances, into setup roles, giving them easily the top-ranked bullpen in the game (no team was within 300 ranks of them -- Baltimore was next with 841).

Relief Pitcher (WORST)
28. Fernando Rodney, SDP (359)
29. Bronson Arroyo, WAS NRI (527)
30. N/A, WAS (UNRANKED)

I don't know if the Padres are officially tanking 2016, but after trading away Craig Kimbrel (60) and Joaquin Benoit (309), the best option they could come up with to close games was veteran castoff Fernando Rodney. Maybe spacious Petco Park will help, but he didn't do too hot in his last years in spacious Safeco Field. Let's just say that Kevin Quackenbush (367) will be waiting eagerly in the wings all year. I firmly believe that the only reason that the Nationals are so far down this list is due to oversight: after the five starters and closer Jonathan Papelbon (132), the only other pitcher in the Washington organization to receive a rank by MLB is non-roster invitee Bronson Arroyo. MLB has ranked 820 players, so when calculating the aggregate rankings, I added 821 to Washington's total. However if I were compiling these rankings, I would have ranked newcomers Yusmeiro Petit (ranked 302 in 2015) and Shawn Kelley (529 in 2015) significantly higher than UNRANKED...

Catcher
1. Buster Posey, SFG (29)
30. Hank Conger, TBR (534)

Posey has been leading the way for catchers for years now, and if he continues to stay fresh with regular at-bats at first base, there's no reason to believe that the 28-year-old's production will slow down. // The Rays went out and picked up the switch-hitting Conger, and while he's an improvement over incumbent Rene Rivera, he won't be putting on any batting practice shows in Tampa Bay (or maybe Tampa Bay / Montreal? Have you heard about this plan?)

First Base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (3)
30. John Jaso, PIT (520)

No surprise at the top here, as Goldschmidt took over the top spot from Miguel Cabrera (15) last year, and never looked back. // John Jaso has played all of two games (and just five innings) at first base in his career, and yet Pittsburgh is planning on using him as the left-handed side of a platoon at that position this year. Maybe we'll see more starts by defensive minded Sean Rodriguez that only last until he's scheduled to come to the plate...

Second Base
1. Jose Altuve, HOU (10)
30. Johnny Giavotella, LAA (486)

When you hit atop a lineup that had an unexpected run to the playoffs, you're bound to attract some attention, despite your size, and the 5'6" Altuve is ready to go for his third straight Silver Slugger award at the keystone. // The Angels didn't bring back former homegrown star Howie Kendrick (145) because owner Arte Moreno was squeamish about keeping his payroll under the luxury tax threshold.

Third Base
1. Josh Donaldson, TOR (4)
30. Giovanny Urshela, CLE (485)

Donaldson won a well-deserved AL MVP award last season, leading his new team to another unexpected run to the playoffs. He and the Jays avoided another arbitration hearing this offseason (with the extension also covering the 2017 season), but I doubt if he'll take any discounts to remain in Toronto when he hits free agency after 2018. // Urshela won't be as big a bust in Cleveland as his fantasy rank suggests because he is a gifted defender, but there's a reason that free agents like David Freese (374) should maybe be on the Indians' radar.

Shortstop
1. Carlos Correa, HOU (6)
30. Jordy Mercer, PIT (457)

The top-ten ranking of incumbent AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa gives Houston the best-ranked middle infield in the sport, and it's not particularly close. Cleveland is the only other team with both middle infielders ranked in the top 100 -- Jason Kipins is 88, while Francisco Lindor is 63. // Pittsburgh finds itself on this list after the trade of Neil Walker (175) to the Mets pushed Josh Harrison (219) to second base, which required Jung Ho Kang (294) to play third rather than shortstop. Hey, everyone knows that Ian Desmond (96) is still available, but fellow free agent Jimmy Rollins (322) might also provide a decent stopgap solution.

Center Field
1. Mike Trout, LAA (2)
30. Jon Jay, SDP (408)

Trout has occupied the top spot in these rankings for the past two years, and while he was knocked off the throne by the leader in the next category, he's still one heck of a ballplayer. Now if only the Angels were willing to spend some money to build a good roster around him. // Did I mention that San Diego might be going down the tanking route? They actually traded FOR Jon Jay this offseason...

Corner Outfield 1
1. Bryce Harper, WAS (1)
30. Aaron Altherr, PHI (384)

This is the year of Bryce Harper, as he earns the top spot in these rankings for the first time after taking home the NL MVP award in 2016. He has three years left before hitting the open market, where he will look to pull down a contract in the neighborhood of $500 million. // If there is a fine line between tanking and rebuilding, the Phillies might have found it. They've got some exciting young talent making their way to the majors this year, but they still promise to perform pretty poorly on the field.

Corner Outfield 2
1. Justin Upton, DET (34)
30. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, MIL (597)

Upton narrowly lost this spot to his future 2016 corner outfield mate J.D. Martinez (33), illustrating how one signing can dramatically boost a team's outfield. (Upton is the only new acquisition on this best-of list, hence his picture in a Padres cap.) It remains to be seen whether Detroit will be able to get enough punch out of an aging, expensive lineup to support an expensive, uneven pitching staff to contend with young guns Kansas City and Cleveland. // The Brewers clearly didn't have a plan for who will replace the recently-traded Khris Davis (277) in the outfield, but as the Milwaukee's fire sale continues, these issues become less and less important.

Designated Hitter
1. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR (22)
15. Mike Napoli, CLE (425)

Encarnacion does have eligibility at first base going into the season, and if he were to occupy that spot in Toronto's lineup, then the top DH honors would go to Boston's David Ortiz (70) in his final season. However it looks like Encarnacion does not have a path to lots of playing time in the field this year with Chris Colabello (343) and Justin Smoak (502) forming a platoon at first base for the Blue Jays. // Conversely, Napoli will probably take most of his at-bats at first bast in Cleveland, pushing Carlos Santana (200) to full-time DH duties. If my chart reflected reality in this way, than Adam LaRoche (390) of the White Sox would rank as the worst DH in the AL. \\ Looking at the NL side of the equation, Carl Crawford (382) is the top ranked NL bench player, as he and Andre Ethier (365) will likely split much of the playing time in left field for the Dodgers, barring a trade to the White Sox.

Saturday, February 6, 2016

The Colorless Mana of Zendikar

I generally don’t like it when blog posts are self-referential about how infrequently they appear on any given blog. That being said, I haven’t been posting a lot recently because I’ve been involved in an in-depth, very time-consuming project - i.e. editing together a playthrough/let’s play/episodic watching someone play a video game experience starring Batman: Arkham Knight. My version of the game’s story runs 15 episodes, each under 30 minutes (except the premiere and the finale, which are both under 32.5 minutes), which equals just under 7 hours of footage. I just finished rough cuts of all 15, which means all the content is cut, complete with music (most of it custom-picked), but I have yet to record voice-over commentary, which will explain both my gameplay and creative choices in real time. 

At this point, I have essentially edited a short season’s worth of content for a television show - i.e. a show that you could watch on your television set, (via streaming or otherwise) rather than in a movie theater. And I did this all on spec - i.e. for free - using content owned completely by Warner Bros., DC Comics, and Rocksteady Games (but with gameplay and creative decisions owned by me). The whole project is essentially meant as a gift, a gift to all those on the Internet who enjoy stories that happen in video games and stories about Batman. I readily admit that I am a member of both camps, so this project is a gift to myself, first and foremost, a gift that I will gladly accept, just as soon as I’ve wrapped it up in a neat little package.

But now that I’ve hit this milestone, I’m taking some time for another gift to myself: musings about another of my in-depth, time consuming hobbies, Magic: The Gathering. The good folks at Wizards of the Coast (don’t even get me started on their OTHER in-depth, time-consuming game, Dungeons and Dragons) have just changed the format of how Magic products are released. And the latest set to come out is Oath of the Gatewatch, the second set in the Battle for Zendikar block, which is the first block under the new system to feature only two sets instead of three. Didja get all that? BFZ-OGW is only two sets, but those two sets constitute an entire block.

In honor of this format-breaking event, Oath of the Gatewatch includes a format-breaking new mechanic - i.e. they’ve added a sixth basic land type* to go along with the traditional WUBRG (White, blUe, Black, Red, Green) structure. This type is called Wastes and produces only colorless mana. It is one of the more on-flavor mechanics, as these lands represent the Plane of Zendikar’s destruction and subversion by the mysterious and terrifying Eldrazi. These Eldrazi are represented by cards that REQUIRE colorless mana, another Magic first. Think more mindless than the effects of a Phyrexian invasion, but more personal than an Ob Nixilis-esque planar destruction.

* Wastes function as basic lands in some ways - i.e. you can feature multiples in Commander/Singleton decks and you can search for them with cards like Evolving Wilds. However, they differ in that you can’t add them to your deck for free in Limited formats - i.e. you have to draft them out of packs just like you would any other spell or nonbasic land.

But looking back at historical Zendikar sets, the Wastes land type is not the plane’s first encounter with creating colorless mana. The first set in the original Zendikar block had no cards that produced colorless mana, lands or otherwise. The second and middle set Worldwake, back when blocks used to have THREE sets each, had only four such cards: lands Dread Statuary (a land that can become an Golem artifact creature), Quicksand, and Tectonic Edge (both representing volatile geographic features), and the artifact Everflowing Chalice (which is just good solid ramping).


But with the third set Rise of the Eldrazi, we see a whopping 18 cards that can create colorless mana, but in a new and unique way. With the exception of one land (the fittingly named Eldrazi Temple) and one artifact (the also on-flavor Dreamstone Hedron), the mana from these cards comes from 0/1 Eldrazi Spawn tokens, that can be sacrificed to add 1 colorless mana (or {C} as it’s now known) to your mana pool. These 16 cards, which are confined to the colors Black, Green, and Red, exist solely for ramping purposes, rather than to fill a need for colorless mana.

The same can be said about the significantly more powerful 1/1 Eldrazi Scion tokens produced by 16 cards (coincidence?) from Battle for Zendikar - about the ramping, that is, not about the colors, because in BFZ Blue replaces Red in the token producing color identity. From a flavor perspective, I see this change as follows: when enough colorless mana was created by Eldrazi Spawn, these lesser tokens mutated or evolved into the far superior Scions. This change would have happened in the downtime between ROE and BFZ.


Following this ilne of thought to its logical conclusion, when enough colorless mana is created from the Scions, it starts affecting the very lands themselves, transforming them into Wastes. This problem has become so pervasive in the time between BFZ and OGW that we need both a new basic land and a new mana symbol to represent it. It’s a great way to use mechanics to tell a story, to which the MTG crew has really been paying special attention since the Khans of Tarkir block. Your efforts have not been unnoticed!

I don’t know what this ultimately means for the Plane of Zendikar, except I do know that the decks based on that plane will continue to have significantly more color-producing basic lands in them than not. And that is an encouraging thought.


Friday, January 8, 2016

Rush vs Arkham Knight mashup

And this is the one I'm most proud of, because it has something in common with the title of this blog. And also because it involves the most complex use of time signatures I've ever worked with. It's the epic synthesizer riff of Tom Sawyer by Rush and the new main theme from the latest Arkham video game.

Speaking of that Arkham video game, I'm planning a bigger project around Arkham Knight, and you might see some sneak peeks start showing up here too.


Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Taylor Swift vs Legend of Zelda mashup

This one features a more obscure video game track and a more famous actual song track: Shake it Off by Taylor Swift and the music from the Water Temple, also from Ocarina of Time!


Monday, January 4, 2016

Juicy J vs Legend of Zelda mashup

I've put some video game music mashups on YouTube in the recent past, and in preparation for a large video game related project I'm planning, I've decided to gather them all together here on this site. This is number 1, a combination of Blow Out by Juicy J and the Deku Tree's Theme from Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time!