SWP 2014, part 3: The Winning Teams

Every year, with only 10 playoff spots, there are bound to be some good teams that accumulate winning records, but that don't make it into the postseason tournament. Let's take a look at the five teams with winning records who were left out of the October party.

Seattle Mariners
Lineup: 7/9
Rotation: 3/5
Bullpen: 2/2

The Mariners defied a lot of expectations this year, mostly because their actual team was very different than their projected team, which was named just 11th best in the league. Actually, both the discrepancies between the actual 2014 roster and Sports Illustrated projections (Corey Hart and Justin Smoak) show up in my SWP project in a bench capacity. The SI folks thought that Hart would actually be healthy enough to play right field with Smoak at first, Logan Morrison the DH, and Michael Saunders patrolling center field. As you can see by the ^'s on the lineup at left, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik replaced his underperforming parts by shifting some positions around and making some timely trades. Kendrys Morales and Austin Jackson ended up also underperforming, but as it happens, any team with a 3,000 point all-star has a pretty good chance of doing well. You can't fault SI for missing the two pitchers they did because Roenis Elias was a rookie and Chris Young ended up winning the comeback player of the year award (read: nobody could see his resurgent season coming). Also because James Paxton and Taijuan Walker would have been rotation mainstays had they been healthy enough for the whole year. I took a bit of liberty giving SI a 2/2 in the relief pitcher department since Tom Wilhelmsen actually had more points than Danny Farquhar, but he pitched in fewer games and would have had fewer innings if he wasn't called upon to make two spot starts late in the year.



Cleveland Indians
Lineup: 9/9
Rotation: 3/5
Bullpen: 2/2

Take a good look: the Cleveland Indians lineup is what total, 100% lineup predictive success looks like. The batting order is a little different, Swisher and Santana swapped projected positions, and nobody saw Michael Brantley coming (Rotowire.com projected him to hit 8 home runs and hit .280) but all the pieces are there. The pitching was also a bit of a mess due to Justin Masterson's injury issues (which eventually got him traded to a playoff team, yet left off the playoff roster) and Zach McAllister's ineffectiveness: both pitchers still show up on the SWP project because they eclipsed 10 starts and 60 innings, but neither were in the top five. Another player no one saw coming: Corey Kluber, who could very well steal the AL Cy Young award from King Felix just for novelty's sake, because as you can see, the more experienced pitcher clearly had the better numbers. The bullpen situation is very similar to San Francisco's in that both projected relievers served as the closer at some point in the season, but while Sergio Romo was simply demoted, John Axford was demoted and traded to the Pirates.



New York Yankees
Lineup: 7/9
Rotation: 2/5
Bullpen: 1/2

Seven out of nine is actually a pretty decent ratio, especially when both discrepancies show up on the bench. Basically Carlos Beltran was supposed to start in right field with Alfonso Soriano the DH and Ichiro on the bench, but Soriano was eventually granted his release, Beltran wasn't healthy enough to stick in the outfield full time, so Ichiro had to step up. Kelly Johnson was supposed to hold it down at third base in A-Rod's absence, but he had to spend significant time at first when Mark Teixeira went down, opening the door for rookie Yangervis Solarte, who was eventually traded for another third baseman who doesn't show up here: Chase Headley of the Padres, now a free agent. The pitching is a different story. You can't blame SI too much for missing everyone but the two Japanese starters (Kuroda and Tanaka) since this rotation was veritably ravaged by injuries. CC Sabathia was supposed to be the staff ace before his season ended in early May. Ivan Nova succumbed to the Tommy John epidemic after just four starts. Michael Pineda did technically qualify as a starter by my standards, but he wasn't anywhere near the top five. If they re-sign Kuroda and McCarthy (who thrived after being traded to New York), if Pineda has a good deal more luck with injuries than he's had for his whole career, and if Masahiro Tanaka's torn elbow ligament miraculously doesn't continue to tear, the Yankees should be alright next year. But that is indeed a lot of if's. Another piece they'll have to replace is their #1 relief pitcher David Robertson, who will test the free agent waters. Projected RP2 Matt Thornton was already shipped out to Washington after the deadline last year.


Toronto Blue Jays
Lineup: 8/9
Rotation: 3/5
Bullpen: 1/2

The top four out of the five non-playoff teams with winning records are from the AL. I wonder if this means we'll finally see some consistency across the leagues with the DH rule. The only missed projection for the offense was at second base, where rookie Ryan Goins was in fact given the job to start the year (with Brett Lawrie at third) but who ended up spending most of the season in the minors. Lawrie did in fact play most of his games at third, but he did qualify at second, so I shifted him over on my list to make room for the more offensively talented Juan Francisco (who I definitely streamed into my fantasy lineup during his hot first half). In the rotation, Drew Hutchison and rookie Marcus Stroman were the ones SI didn't predict, placing reliever Esmil Rogers and oft-injured Brandon Morrow in their places. I myself thought that Todd Redmond would blossom into a starter, but instead he served as their top setup man, beating out projected RP2 Steve Delabar, who only managed 30 innings on the year.

Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup: 8/8
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 1/2

Finally a non-playoff NL team with a winning record! The Brewers improved over their 2013 showing, but were eclipsed in a strong Central division by the Cardinals and the Pirates (although they did finish well ahead of the disappointing Reds). Their offense was clicking on all cylinders with the superhuman feats of Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy making up for Ryan Braun's regression to a non-performance enhanced statistical realm. The pitching was also remarkably consistent, with the only wrong guess being Marco Estrada, who was in fact a starter for a lot of the year before he was demoted to the bullpen. SI apparently didn't get the memo that projected closer Jim Henderson had lost his job to projected RP2 Francisco Rodriguez before this magazine was published - but neither did I, if you check my projected lineups on the subject.

Atlanta Braves
Lineup: 7/8
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 1/2

Alright, I know I said there were only five non-playoff winning teams, and that's true, but the Braves and the Mets tied for second place in the NL East division, and they would have made it to .500 with two more wins apiece, and there are two leagues, no matter how one-sided the talent level might be, so I've decided analyzing a couple of bonus teams. Hooray! The only discrepancy in the lineup is at second base, where SI incorrectly assumed that opening day starter Dan Uggla would be the starter beyond July, where he was unceremoniously dumped and later signed (and dumped) by the Giants. Aaron Harang was a late signing, so it makes sense that he wouldn't appear in this issue, but you're going to laugh when you see that SI predicted Freddy Garcia to do significant fill-in work for the injured Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen. Bullpens are super hard to predict, so I don't fault SI at all for assuming fireballing former closer Jordan Walden would serve as the primary setup man rather than David Carpenter. I would fault them if they somehow left out Craig Kimbrel as the guy for whom they'd be setting up.



New York Mets
Lineup: 6/8
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 0/2

The Mets did overperform in order to achieve such a decent winning percentage, but in the grand scheme of things, they finished about where expected: SI has them ranked 12th in the NL... with just the Phillies, Marlins, and Cubs behind them, two of whom they did beat in their division. The offensive discrepancies exist mostly due to trades: SI thought that Ike Davis would beat Lucas Duda for the first base job, and I guess he ostensibly did until he was traded to the Pirates giving Duda the job by default. While Chris Young does show up on my list in the "NL DH" spot (read: most-used bench guy), he didn't get a chance to eclipse the speedy Juan Lagares in center field due to his trade to the Yankees. The only pitcher missing from SI's projected rotation is rookie Jacob deGrom, as they thought Japanese veteran Daisuke Matsuzaka would be the primary fill-in for Matt Harvey. On a side note, this rotation is going to be absolutely terrifying when Harvey returns from his Tommy John procedure. Projected closer Bobby Parnell missed basically the whole season due to injury and Vic Black underperformed, causing swingman Jenrry Mejia and little-known reliever Jeuris Familia to take over closing duties, with Carlos Torres quietly serving as one of the most capable long relievers in the league.

There were many more teams who took the field in 2014, but none of them performed all that impressively. If there are teams any that anyone would like to see in greater detail, let me know in the comments section or shout out on Twitter @Hunter_S_Batman and perhaps I'll factor them into a future post. Until then, keep your eyes (but not your hands) on the Hot Stove and try to stay warm through the offseason!