SWP 2014, part 2: The Rest of the Playoffs

Having analyzed the final four teams last post, it's time to take a look at the other six teams who made the postseason, comparing their aggregate 2014 lineups to the projected lineups from this year's Sports Illustrated preview issue. Again, this is not to pick on SI for the roster spots that they got wrong - since it's no fun to be petty and they're pretty accurate overall - but rather just to have a benchmark for comparison to track some of the interesting changes that took place throughout the season.

Los Angeles Angels
Lineup: 8/9
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 1/2

Much like Kansas City, the Angels had a plan offensively and they stuck with it, making this team very easy to predict. The only batter that the folks at SI got wrong wasn't even a position player, as they thought veteran Raul Ibanez would hold down the DH spot. Even with youngster C.J. Cron getting the most time here, DH was still the weakest link for this team with guys like Efren Navarro and Brennan Boesch getting far too many at-bats there. Although to be fair, they didn't stop the team from winning the most games in baseball (despite being ranked 9th in the league by SI). SI wasn't wrong by assuming that Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs would occupy the 4th and 5th spots of the rotation, and it's unclear that Matt Shoemaker would have gotten a shot had Skaggs not gone down with an injury. The same is true for putting Ernesto Frieri as the projected closer, as he did indeed start the season in that role, but lost it fairly quickly and was later shipped to Pittsburgh for their ex-closer Jason Grilli. You'll notice that Huston Street's name is in italics here - that's because he failed to reach 40 innings with the Angels, but I left him in because of his important role and ludicrously high swp/g totals.

Washington Nationals
Lineup: 7/8
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 2/2

I could very easily haven given the SI crew an 8/8 here, since Ryan Zimmerman (projected as the starting 3B with Rendon at 2B, where he did also qualify), but I decided to ding them since Zim a) missed a lot of time due to injury and b) had to effectively abandon third base for left field. I could also have dinged SI in the relief pitcher department since they named Tyler Clippard as the RP2 - the job that technically went to Drew Storen points-wise - but that's only because he won the closer's job towards the end of the season, whereas Clippard was consistently a quality setup man. Keep in mind this team that was supposed to win the World Series, according to the cover of the magazine, and they did do exceptionally well this year, so it makes sense that their projections were mostly accurate. The only one that was just unabashedly wrong was assuming that Taylor Jordan would hold down the fifth starter spot over Tanner Roark, but maybe the SI analysts weren't paying attention at the end of 2013.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Lineup: 7/8
Rotation: 5/5
Bullpen: 1/2

SI pegged the Dodgers as the best team in the NL this year, and they were very good, and they put their team together pretty much as SI predicted. The only discrepancy was at second base where Cuban import (and 2014 minor leaguer) Alex Guerrero was projected to start, leaving All-Star Dee Gordon on the bench. Josh Beckett succumbed to an injury that effectively ended his career (he retired at season's end), but he did serve as the team's fifth starter when active. I feel bad giving SI a wrong answer in the bullpen since Brian Wilson was utilized as an RP2 setup man type even through the playoffs, despite his complete ineffectiveness, but there were just so many pitchers in this curiously weak bullpen who did better than the Beard that I just couldn't justify giving it to him.






Detroit Tigers
Lineup: 7/9
Rotation: 5/5
Bullpen: 2/2

Again, this team mostly stuck to the plan except for where injuries and trades were concerned. Before the breakout of J.D. Martinez caused Austin Jackson to be expendable, Jackson/Rajai Davis was the CF/LF plan as projected. Jackson actually had more games in CF, but I gave the nod to Rajai since he logged more overall games in the outfield. Detroit was left scrambling at shortstop when Jose Iglesias went down for the year with shin splints and projected starter Alex Gonzalez did get a handful of games towards the beginning of the season, but it was a Suarez/Romine combo for the vast majority of the year. In terms of innings pitched for the starters, SI got one thru five correct, even though David Price was obviously a much higher upside pitcher after he was acquired from the Rays in the biggest three-team blockbuster of the year. Even though Al Alburquerque wasn't the second-most-used relief pitcher (remember how Joba Chamberlain in key sitiuations basically cost them any shot they might have had at winning the ALDS?), he did score the most points of all Tigers setup men, so I consider that a correct prediction for SI.




Oakland Athletics
Lineup: 7/9
Rotation: 3/5
Bullpen: 0/2

Pandemonium is the best way to describe how this A's roster was put together throughout the season. The batting order predictions were actually quite accurate: SI had John Jaso behind the plate (which was his primary position until a concussion ended his season) with Derek Norris on the bench and *shudder* Daric Barton listed as the primary DH. And although I listed Alberto Callaspo at second base ahead of Eric Sogard, that was really just a ploy to get more offensive prowess into the starting 9 (although I justify my decision because Callaspo played a bunch of games at other positions as well). In the rotation, three out of five is pretty generous, considering Tommy Milone only barely sneaks by Jon Lester into the top five (by innings pitched) when the traded lefty was not nearly as impactful as the acquired lefty. Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir were the only other two starters correctly projected to be in the rotation: the other two spots went to Dan Straily (who did start the season there, but was subsequently traded) and A.J. Griffin (obviously before it was learned that his injuries would keep him out for the season). The two projected relievers did qualify for inclusion on my swp list, but at the very bottom of the barrel, as Jim Johnson lost his closer's job almost immediately and Ryan Cook wasn't used nearly as much as high leverage setup men Luke Gregerson or Dan Otero. Oh well, you can't get them all right!


Pittsburgh Pirates
Lineup: 6/8
Rotation: 4/5
Bullpen: 1/2

As is the case with most teams that did surprisingly better than anticipated, some of the key players came out of nowhere. Or in this case, the Mets, as Ike Davis was acquired early in the season as the left-handed (read: primary) part of a first base platoon with Gaby Sanchez, the SI projected starter. Jose Tabata was projected to start in right field, but he was demoted early on, leaving two lefties - Travis Snider and Gregory Polanco - to take charge of the role. But the main story here that nobody saw coming was Josh Harrison, a projected bench player who very nearly won the batting title while filling in at both corner outfield spots and third base, making July 8th birthdays everywhere proud. The one starting pitcher SI got wrong was Wandy Rodriguez, in that they thought he would play a role on this team commensurate with the salary Pittsburgh was paying him, when that was in fact not the case. Jason Grilli did start the season in the closer role but obviously flamed out rather quick (see the Angels section above), ceding the job to his primary setup man Mark Melancon, so having those two as the top projected relievers was not an unreasonable pick at all.


Of the 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs, five managed to finish above .500 on the season. I'll probably continue this feature with those teams next time, and then see what happens from there.