Red Sox vs. Rangers, a Dialogue

Two --> weeks ago, the Red Sox and Rangers, embroiled in a very close race for the AL Wild Card, met in Arlington for a three game series. Of course, some time has passed since then, but the race is still close: the Sox currently stand 3.5 games ahead of the Rangers. The meeting of two contending teams at such a crucial point in the season gave me an idea: what would happen if the two guys who were in charge of personnel decisions for the two teams could talk to each other in a cordial, informative, and dramatic manner?
What follows is one such conversation between Theo Epstein, general manager of the Red Sox, and Jon Daniels, GM of the Rangers, about the fortunes of their respective teams, as it may have happened when they played against each other. It’s not exactly historically accurate, because since that fabled series (in which the Rangers took 2 of 3) many aspects of both teams have changed, and it’s in my interest to sacrifice historicity in the interest of staying up to date.

INT. Luxury Box, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington – DAY

Rangers GM Jon Daniels sits with a score sheet in front of him, keeping score of the Rangers vs. Red Sox game going on below. His open laptop is at his left hand, his blackberry at his right. The crowd cheers. He reacts to the play, writes something down on his score sheet, and moves to type something in his laptop.

There’s a knock at the door. Daniels closes his laptop quickly and suspiciously; turns around to see Theo Epstein standing at the door, holding a highball.

THEO: Hiya, Jonny.

JON: Hiya, Theo-y.

THEO: That’s quite a ballclub you’ve put together down there.

JON: Aw, thanks, T. You know, there were some good trades, and some bad ones.

THEO: Hey, speaking of trades (he leans in all secretively) didja see that one I made the other day for Victor Martinez?

JON: Yeah, T, I noticed. He’s down on the field right now, playing first base.

THEO: Is he? Are you sure he’s not playing catcher? Because he can play there too, you know.

JON: Yeah, yeah, he’s very versatile.

THEO: Oh, don’t I know it.

JON: How’s Varitek taking the new acquisition?

THEO: Who, Jason Varitek? Our starting catcher for the last 12 years? I think he’ll understand. Plus he’s been bothered by neck spasms, so he might actually be happy to know someone’s there to take his place when he needs some rest.

JON: Ooh, neck spasms? Sounds serious.

THEO: Well, he is 37 years old. That’s to be expected. And the best part of this whole situation: if Jason’s feeling alright and if Terry (Francona, manager) wants both his and Victor’s bats in the lineup, Martinez can play first too! That way Kevin Youkilis can shift over to third, and we won’t lose his production!

JON: It’s true, you acquired a very versatile player. And in that situation, what would Lowell think of being benched?

THEO (a politician now, more than a baseball man): Mike Lowell’s still our starting third baseman. But he’s old too (35) and he’s had some hip problems. So no harm, no foul there.

JON: So you just stock up on players so that you’ll be ready when (not if) one of them goes down with an injury? What does that do for the confidence of the players who you know are too fragile to be relied on?

THEO (correcting him): The players I know are too fragile on whom to be relied, Jonny. Never end a phrase with one of those ghastly prepositions. And listen, I don’t put together a team based on my players’ confidence or feelings. I put together a team that’s got the best chance to win ballgames. And Mike understands that, and Jason understands that, and Victor understands that. And they also understand that sometimes they’re not part of the combination that will win the most ballgames. They’re all consummate veterans.

JON: Seems like you kind of had the same strategy for your starting rotation before this season. Eight viable starting pitchers in the organization? I know you like to play it safe, but eight seems a bit excessive, even for you.

THEO: You think so? Let’s take a look at those starters I had at the beginning of the season.

*Josh Beckett: Our ace for four years. Helped us win a World Series with 20 wins in 2007. But he gets blisters trying to throw his own fastball. Hardly 100% reliable.

*Jon Lester: Young left-hander, ace quality. Beat cancer. Threw a no-hitter. Him we don’t have to worry about.

*Daisuke Matsuzaka: Pronounced “Dice-K.” Was a huge fan favorite. But he’s playing a game that’s played very differently here than it was in his native Japan. For instance, we baby our young pitchers. We put them on pitch counts, we limit their innings, we make them start their careers in the bullpen. But Japanese pitchers start pitching early, and they start taking on very large workloads early. He threw 180 professional innings at age 18. Then 167 at 19. Then 240 at 20. Do you know how many pitches Joba Chamberlain threw by age 20? He was still pitching in COLLEGE at age 20. My point is, I think that he’s been overworked and he’s tired and he’s not yet used to the American Style of Baseball, and I don’t trust his arm to hold out, quite frankly. I think we were living on borrowed time with Daisuke.

And I was right, wasn’t I? He last pitched in the majors in JUNE.

JON: Well, hindsight is always 20/20, T.

THEO

*Tim Wakefield: 42 year-old knuckleballer. We’re not the Phillies, are we? We don’t need senior citizens to make our team better! But, wait, he has wins by July? He’s still getting people out? Well, that performance is good enough for me. But wait: he just went on the DL and missed nearly 50 games with back and shoulder problems? Well, good thing we packed a spare…

*Brad Penny: …questionable veteran starter. But this one was nearly ineffectual last year after missing significant time due to injuries. What assurances do I have that he’s completely recovered? I don’t have any. So forgive me for doing my research and being careful.

JON: See, I understand all that, but then how can you justify your next move?

THEO: Who?

*John Smoltz? That was just good timing. He’s another veteran, a future hall of famer, in fact, released by his old team, desperate for one last shot. So I picked him up cheap. AND, he underwent shoulder surgery during the off-season and isn’t scheduled to return until June. So hopefully he’ll be ready by the time one of the other guys breaks down. Didn’t a certain Japanese import go down in June?

JON: But what’s the assurance that Smoltz will remain healthy?

THEO: There isn’t any. That’s the beauty of it! We have so many of them that at least ONE of them has to work out! (Theo begins to pace frantically, like a mad scientist)

JON: But Theo… that’s only six. What of the other two pitchers?

THEO (immediately stops pacing and becomes deadly focused): Ah, yes. We spoke of eight, but have covered, so far, only six. Who was the next one, Jon?

JON: You know who I’m talking about, T.

THEO: But I want to hear you say it, Jonny Boy.

JON: Clay. Buchholz.

THEO

*Clay Buchholz: My organization’s Number 1 Ranked Prospect prior to the 2008 season. He’s 24, he has a great makeup, and “competitive drive” and all that. But guess what he did in the 2008 season: 9 losses and a 6.75 ERA in 16 games. Whatever baseballamerica.com’s prospect ranker thinks of Buchholz, he’s clearly not yet ready for the bigs. He needs more time in the minors, like I’ve said a thousand times before.

JON: But he’s up now. He’s been up since July. He must be doing something right.

THEO: Doing what right? He has a 5.02 ERA in 8 games. He’s up because all my other guys went down. Daisuke has been ineffective all season. We released John Smoltz months ago. Wakefield’s just now back from his injury, which forced us to release Brad Penny.

JON: So, right there, you could have kept Penny and sent Buchholz down. So he must be doing better than Penny.

THEO: Slightly better than Penny, but Penny was just slightly worse than Junichi Tazawa.

JON: Who?

THEO: Why, the eighth man, my dear boy,

*Junichi Tazawa: A really good young pitcher from one of the smaller Japanese Leagues. We got him early in his development so we could show him the American baseball tradition of babying a starter every step of the way. He was the prize of the whole off-season, and yet nobody’s heard of him.

JON: Yeah? And what has he done for you lately?

THEO: Pay no attention to the 6.65 ERA! Trust me, he’ll pan out.

JON: So those were the eight men?

THEO: …Actually… there was another Eighth Man:

*Justin Masterson: who had been spending most of his time in the bullpen. But we traded him in August to get…

TOGETHER: …Victor Martinez.

JON: …and he’s sooooo versatile…

THEO: So, how many viable starters do we have now?

JON: Counting your bad ones?

THEO: Counting our only ones now…

JON: I guess five.

THEO: So it all worked out for me, then, right?

JON: I guess. But Masterson still has a high ceiling. And John Smoltz was picked up by the Cardinals, and he’s pitched two good games for them.

THEO: Ah, everybody plays better for the Cardinals. Just ask Matt Holliday. And Mark McGwire. Hmm, two former A’s.

JON: You’re thinking about Billy Beane again, aren’t you?

THEO: …No.

JON: You’re just jealous that nobody’s written a bestseller about you. And nobody’s asked Brad Pitt to play you in a movie, even though your team’s doing much better than his…

THEO: SHUT UP! Nobody’s written a book about me yet because I’ve succeeded! My story would be boring! Enter Theo: he saves the day. Millions upon millions of fans cheer. Exit Theo.

JON: In a gorilla suit…?

THEO: That was ONE TIME! And it was Halloween. And we auctioned that suit off for $11,000 for charitable organizations…

JON: Sounds like a stunt to me, T. A publicity stunt, if you know what I mean!

THEO: Oh, now you’re just jealous that you’re not even in anyone’s shadow! How’s your rotation these days, Jonny?

JON: Better than Billy Beane’s. And also beating his by 17 games in their division.

THEO; MY ROTATION’S BEATING BILLY BEANE’S TOO, JON!

JON: That’s not the point. The point is that my rotation may also be beating yours. We’re 3rd in the league in ERA. You guys are…?

THEO: 7th. But look at our peripherals. We’ve got more strikeouts by a lot, the least Home Runs allowed per nine-innings, and we throw much fewer walks than we do strikeouts. I don’t know if you’re beating mine just yet.

JON: Yes, T, but how much money did you spend on yours? And how much money did I spend on mine?

THEO (his jaw drops. Jon’s going there. Theo’s demoralized): On all of them?

JON: How much did your Big Eight cost this year and how much did mine cost?

THEO: You had eight?

JON: Pretty much. Here they are if you want to check:

*Kevin Millwood: Signed since 2005, expensive but possibly not worth it. Certainly not in the last couple years. But he’s doing really good this year! Maybe it’s because of new team president Nolan Ryan…

*Vicente Padilla: He was way overpaid, but he was a sunk cost. We found cheaper options, released him, and now he’s trying to find true happiness with the Dodgers.

*Scott Feldman: He’s bounced around the organization a bit, but we thought he was ready for the show. And he hasn’t let us down.

*Brandon McCarthy: We traded a really good pitcher (John Danks) to get this guy, and so far he’s disappointed us. Missed most of last year due to injury, and was done this year after just 11 games.

*Matt Harrison: Nobody really thought of him as any better than a decent pitcher. But that’s all we needed him to be if enough of our other options came through. And look: he too got hurt after exactly 11 games.

*Derek Holland: Haven’t heard of this guy? Well, he was our number 2 rated prospect this year by Baseball America. He hasn’t been lights-out, but he’s been serviceable and he’s played a very important role for the team.

*Tommy Hunter: Here’s a 22 year old who wasn’t on anyone’s radar, and boy if he hasn’t been our best pitcher. Ain’t baseball great?

*Dustin Nippert: To be fair, this guy wasn’t even really on our radar to start before this season. But we gave him a shot, and he’s started 8 games for us. And we couldn’t be happier.

THEO: So… shall we tally up?

JON: Let’s. You first, my dear boy.

THEO:

Beckett: $11,166,666 million

Lester: one million even

Daisuke: 8.3repeating million

Wakefield: 4 million

Penny: 5 million

Smoltz: 5.5 million (but the Cardinals are eating some of that)

Buchholz: $413,500

Tazawa: $450,000

Masterson: $415,000 (but the Indians have most of that, and plus it’s a negligible salary)

JON: Yeah, but the four more years of him that they get at that price is not negligible. But no matter, here’s mine:

Millwood: 12.868892 million

Padilla: $12 million (but the Dodgers have some of that, thank Cy Young)

Feldman: $434,680

McCarthy: $615,000

Harrison: $405,000

Holland: $400,000

Hunter: $401,000

Nippert: $411,760

THEO: So, for me, that’s $36,278,499. But you have to deduct from that money paid by the Cardinals and Indians for the remainders of the salaries of the players we released…

JON: Yeah, yeah, I know how it works. Are you quite finished? Read ‘em and weep: $27,536,332. Minus part of that 12 mil paid by the Dodgers. And mine’s got a better ERA!

THEO: Pretty impressive, Jon.

JON: Thank you, Theo!

THEO: And how’s your offense.

JON: Oh, not as good as yours, Theo. We’re behind you in runs, hits, AVG, OPS, and total bases – plus we strike out a good deal more – but we’ve hit more home runs than you.

THEO: That’s something, at least. How’s your bullpen?

JON: Couldn’t be better, thanks for asking! Frank Francisco’s been a very effective closer, C.J. Wilson and Darren O’Day are a great right/left combination to set him up, and Neftali Feliz has been awe-inspiring. He’s our number 1 ranked prospect and he might even be a starter one day. Wouldn’t that be just lovely?

THEO: Yeah, lovely. I can’t wait for my hitters to have to face his 101 mph fastball next season.

JON: Oh, they have faced them this season! He held your team to a .143 AVG in 7 AB this season.

THEO: Sample size alert…

JON: I know, it’s hardly a blip. But you must admit those fastballs are dazzling…

THEO: Alright, alright, they’re dazzling. You know, we have some dazzling fastballs in our bullpen too.

JON: Is that so, Theo? Why don’t you tell me all about them.

THEO: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez (acquired this off-season), Takashi Saito (also acquired this off-season), Hideki Okajima, young Daniel Bard, and newly acquired Billy Wagner.

JON: Billy Wagner? You mean fresh off of Tommy John Ligament Replacement surgery, Billy Wagner?

THEO: The very same. Have you seen his 96 mph fastball?

JON: Yeah, but he only threw two innings for the Mets before you acquired him. That’s a small sample size alert if I’ve ever seen one! Plus, what reassurances do you have that he’ll stay healthy?

THEO: But that’s the beauty of it! There’s so many of them!!!

JON: Great, back to this again?

THEO: Our bullpen’s fine, Jonny. You just worry about when Andruw Jones, Jarrod Saltalmacchia, Harrison, McCarthy, and Everyday Eddie Guardado get off the DL.

JON: Hey, T! That was harsh. I don’t poke fun at you because of your use of the disabled list. These are human beings here. Who are in pain.

THEO: Unless you’re Dontrelle Willis. Social Anxiety Disorder, my…

JON: Theo!

THEO: Sorry, that came from a bad place. I’m sorry.

JON: Apology accepted.

THEO: So, how’s it feel to be the youngest GM in baseball history? 28 years old, was it, when Jon Hart put you in charge of the Rangers in 2005?

JON: You ought to know; you held that honor once yourself. Back in 2002 when you took control of the Red Sox, also at 28.

THEO: A slightly older 28.

JON: Slightly older, true. But that was seven years ago and you’re now….

THEO: Don’t remind me.

JON: Could it be 35? While I myself am sitting pretty at 31.

THEO: 32 on the 24th. Happy Birthday, by the way.

JON: Thanks, pal!

THEO: No problem! And say hi to your buddies at Cornell, would you?

JON: Will do! And same for your pals at… what was it?

THEO: Yale.

JON: Yes, Yale, of course. How could I forget!

THEO: Well…

JON: Yes?

THEO: Good luck down the stretch!

JON: Hup! You too!

THEO: CheeriO!

Theo backs out the door, tipping his highball as if it were an imaginary top hat, and closing it gruffly behind him. Jon stares straight ahead for a second. Then he lets out a sigh, opens up his laptop, and types enthusiastically. As the crowd goes wild, he glances up casually at the game going on down below.

Hang In There, Dodgers!!!

So the Dodgers' lead in the NL West over the Rockies is down to 2 games? After being as high as 15 earlier in the season!?!?!?

What happened?

Now, I want the Dodgers to win the west this season, and I want them to go far in the playoffs. This desire for their victory goes beyond my position as a Dodgers fan, and I do wholeheartedly consider myself a Dodgers fan.

You see, I made a prediction over two weeks ago, in the very pages of this blog, that the Dodgers would run away with the NL West division. I believed it then, and I want to believe it now. And if it doesn't come true, not only will I be a disappointed fan, I will have made a wrong prediction. And that would be damaging to my reputation as a blogger and as a man of insight.

So I personally have a lot riding on the fate of the Dodgers' season: not just the disappointment I'd feel as a fan if they miss the playoffs (not to mention the bitterness against the Rockies for catching up to them), but also the shame of having made a prediction that went so horribly awry.

Also, I generally have an affinity for order and just rewards, so I like seeing the team who has played consistently good baseball over the course of a whole season get rewarded with a playoff spot. While underdog stories and dramatic comebacks might make for a good story, they usually make me rather uneasy and cause my nerves to go all a-flutter. For example, I've got no love for the Mets, but seeing their very solid team collapse so completely at the very end of both the '07 AND '08 seasons did tug at my heartstrings a little. But I also don't appreciate sob stories, so I didn't feel bad for them for long.

Either way, it'll be a tremendously interesting race, seeing as the Dodgers' next two games are against the Rockies in Denver. So what was once a commanding, unsurpassable Dodgers lead could become a tie for first place over the span of two days. These are the dynamics that make baseball great and push TV ratings through the roof. And don't get me wrong, I love watching these exciting games. I just wish I had somehow forseen these developments so that I could have made the right predictions 18 days ago....

St. Louis Cardinals

So the Redbirds are pretty much the last team of 2009 that's basically a lock for the playoffs. The three remaining playoff spots (AL Wild Card, Al Central, and NL Wild Card) look like they all might go down to the wire. For the really close races, I'll try and do something a little more interesting than just single team overviews. So enjoy the last true position by position rundown of '09:

St. Louis Cardinals
72-54
NL CENTRAL (1st place out of 6)

LINEUP

2B Skip Schumaker

CF Colby Rasmus

1B Albert Pujols

LF Matt Holliday
RF Ryan Ludwick

3B Mark DeRosa

C Yadier Molina

SS Brendan Ryan

BENCH

OF Rick Ankiel

IF Julio Lugo

IF Khalil Greene

ROTATION

Chris Carpenter

Adam Wainwright

Joel Pineiro

Kyle Lohse

John Smoltz/Mitchell Boggs

BULLPEN

Ryan Franklin (CL)

Kyle McClellan

Trever Miller

Jason Motte

Dennys Reyes

Brad Thompson

Manager: Tony La Russa

General Manager: John Mozeliak

Owner: William DeWitt, Jr.

Payroll: $87,703,409 (13th out of 30 teams)

Tony La Russa is one of the most successful managers in all of baseball: he has four manager of the year awards, and has won the most games of any active manager (placing him third on the all time list). He has achieved his success in unique and intriguing ways: after he was finished as a player, he earned his J.D. and passed the bar exam, but decided on a career as a manager rather than a lawyer. Throughout a great deal of the 2007 season, La Russa batted his pitcher 8th in the order rather than the traditional 9th. Furthermore, three of the pitchers in his 2007 rotation (Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, and Todd Wellemeyer) had not started a single game among them prior to 2007. Controversy swirls around La Russa on and off the field: in the same year he was also arrested for a DUI. Earlier this year he was involved in a lawsuit against Twitter over a false profile in his name that caused considerable emotional stress.

Given his unpredictable nature, it's sometimes hard to pin down a consistent starting lineup for La Russa's Cardinals. He juggles three players between his two middle infield spots (Skip Schumaker, a converted left fielder, at second base, Brendan Ryan at shortstop, and new acquisition Julio Lugo who plays either position). Center field is a toss-up between rookie Colby Rasmus and converted pitcher Rick Ankiel. Third base has had some stability lately, thanks to the trade with the Indians for Mark DeRosa, but before the deal, La Russa used four different guys at the hot corner. La Russa also likes to switch up where people hit in the batting order. Except for the middle of the order (Pujols, Holliday, Ludwick), it's just as hard to determine who will bat where on any given day.

What hasn't been unpredictable about La Russa's team is the quality baseball they have played this season. Their lineup is bolstered by Albert Pujols's 5th season with at least 40 home runs, a middle infield that's hitting .296, and a performance by new acquisition Matt Holliday that would make any A's fan bitter. If the numbers he put up while wearing the Green and Gold even approached the .398 AVG/ .457 OBP/ .694 SLG he's hitting for the Cardinals, the A's very well might still be in contention. Of course he did make the move to the less talented of the two leagues while also escaping one of the most notorious pitchers' parks in the sport, and these two factors undoubtedly explain part of his resurgence. It just would have been nice to see ONE of Billy Beane's big offseason acquisitions perform as advertised while still with the A's.

Gotta be happy for the Cardinals, though. They've left the heavily favored Cubs totally in the dust, and they did it with a pitching staff full of question marks and also-rans. I mentioned that Wainwright and Wellemeyer spent their careers until 2007 in the bullpen; it looks like the latter of the two is headed back there, while the former has been lights out this year. Chris Carpenter, who played in only 5 games combined over the last two seasons, is currently leading the league in wins and ERA. Joel Pineiro's ERA is down two full points from last season (3.15 from 5.15). And the acquisition of John Smoltz gives them a future hall of famer in the rotation to complement youngster Mitchell Boggs.

Their experiment of using a couple of young, inexperienced relievers in a closer-by-committee role has failed - Jason Motte has an ERA approaching 6 and Chris Perez was traded to the Indians - but veteran Ryan Franklin has blossomed into one of the most dominating closers in the game, after many years as a decent starter. Add in setup man Kyle McClellan, LOOGYs Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes, and provisional member of Australia's World Baseball Classic squad Blake Hawksworth, the Cardinals' bullpen works like a well-oiled machine.

The Cubs this year had a lineup filled with potential offensive stars and a rotation consisting of mostly high profile hurlers. But most of them either struggled or underperformed and the team never took off like most commentators expected. The Cardinals this year are a testament to how (basically) one star hitter (Pujols), a couple of lights-out starters (Carpenter and Wainwright), and a dominant closer (Franklin) can carry a team to a grand season. They say pitching wins in the playoffs, and the Redbirds still have a couple of holes in that department, but based on the quality of his season and what his performance has done for his team, I'd venture an addendum to the old saw: Pitching and/or Pujols wins in the playoffs. (His line in postseason play is .323/.429/.593 with 13 HR and 35 RBI in 53 games.)

PREDICTION: If my addendum is correct, they could win the Division Series. If old wisdom prevails, I don't think they'll make it out of the first round.

New York Yankees

A new stadium and three new big name free agent acquisitions have put the Yankees right back where they’ve been for the last decade: on the fast track to the playoffs. The Yankees roster is a brilliant amalgam of young homegrown talent, old homegrown talent, and overpaid veterans, all drawn to a franchise that promises to spend big bucks to compete every single year. And here they are this year:

New York Yankees
76-45
AL EAST (1st place out of 5)

LINEUP
SS Derek Jeter
LF Johnny Damon
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
DH Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
CF Melky Cabrera

BENCH
C Jose Molina
RF/3B Eric Hinske
UT Jerry Hairston, Jr.

ROTATION
A.J. Burnett
C.C. Sabathia
Joba Chamberlain
Andy Pettitte
Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin/???

BULLPEN
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Phil Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Phil Coke
Brian Bruney

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman
Owner: The Steinbrenners (George, Hank, Hal)
Payroll: $208,097,414 (1st out of 30 teams)


First the old guard, the guys who came up with the Yankees and have stuck with the team through thick and thin. Well, the Yankees never actually had a thin period while most of these players were on the team, but they're such stand-up guys that they presumably would have stuck with the team through thin as well.

First is shortstop Derek Jeter, the Yankee captain and face of the franchise. He’s never won an MVP, but he was Rookie of the Year in 1996, but has been voted to nine All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, and three Silver Slugger trophies since then. His reputation as a great fielder is based on very little fact, but he more than makes up for it with his bat and with his intangibles. He’s 35 and shows no signs of stopping (at least not hitting; a move to left field might very well be in his future).

Next is catcher Jorge Posada. He’s a switch hitter with power and was one of the league’s most durable and consistent backstops until a strained shoulder ended his 2008 season in July. He’s 37 and spent 22 games this season on the DL with a strained hamstring.

Everyone’s heard of Mariano Rivera, one of the elite closers of our time (or perhaps all time). At 39 years old he leads the league in Saves, has an ERA under 2 (1.94), and has been striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings (10.1). Nothing but good things to say about Mo, especially since he’s one of the few bright spots of my 2009 fantasy draft.

Andy Pettitte is somewhat of a prodigal son to the Yankees. He was a homegrown star and their ace for much of the late 90’s, won four World Series titles with the Yanks, but took off to follow his close friend (and steroid buddy?) Roger Clemens to Houston in 2004. He stayed with the ‘Stros for three years (one of them stellar, one of them serviceable, one of them halved by injuries) before seeing the light and resigning with the Yankees in 2007. They have since strung the 37-year-old along with a series of one-year deals; apparently those in the Yankees organization do not lightly give job security to those who have betrayed them in the past.

Now for the young talent, youngest to oldest. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes have followed very similar career paths, with the former having a bit more luck and showing a bit more promise than the latter. Both were highly touted starting pitching prospects and it was decided for both of them that their careers would be served best by spending some time in the bullpen. Chamberlain dominated as a reliever in his first season (2007), then dominated as a starter in 2008 before some tendonitis forced him to return to the bullpen. As a starter this year, he has struggled with his control a little bit, but at 23 still shows tremendous promise.

Hughes, on the other hand, began his career by struggling as a starter in his first two years (2007-08), and was finally moved to the bullpen in 2009. Many Yankees officials and fans alike believe that he may still develop into the star starter everyone expected – like Chamberlain, he’s only 23 years old – but right now he’s excelling in the role of 8th inning setup man for Mariano Rivera.

Reliever Alfredo Aceves and LOOGY Phil Coke both took rather circuitous routes to the majors, but nevertheless found themselves on the Yankee’s list of top ten prospects, as measured by Baseball America. I don’t know if anybody is hearkening back to the glory days of Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson just yet, but they’re serviceable players who play an important, if unheralded, role.

Melky Cabrera has taken his rightful place as Yankees center fielder after being ostensibly relegated to the bench before this season in favor of promising youngster Brett Gardner (despite Gardner being one year older than Cabrera). But now Gardner’s injured, Cabrera’s been playing very well, and, congratulations, he’s the starter once more.

Jeter’s double-play partner at second base, Robinson Cano, 26, has fixed whatever problem with his swing caused his batting average to dip 35 points below his career norm last year. This year he’s batting .321 with no loss of power and a noticeable decrease in strikeouts. He probably plays a better defense than his reputation suggests, but if you combine his underrated glove work with Jeter’s overrated glove work, it probably all cancels out.

That’s it for the youngsters. Now for what makes the Yankees the Yankees: their cadre of mercenaries who flock to the highest payroll in all of sports. The three newest additions need no introduction. Mark Teixeira: switch-hitting first baseman who propelled the Angels into the playoffs after being acquired at the trade deadline last year. C.C. Sabathia: very consistent lefty starter who showed occasional flashes of brilliance, and propelled the Brewers into the playoffs after being acquired last July. (Is there an echo in here, or what?) A.J. Burnett: hard-throwing righty who never really reached his full potential with the Marlins or the Blue Jays due to injuries that limited his production. Each of these three are performing relatively close to their projected level.

Acquired during the same offseason (although via trade rather than free agency) is outfielder Nick Swisher. He was one of the centerpieces of the Moneyball draft, and has shown his stuff, as he currently leads the league in walks. He also, so I’ve heard, leads the Yankees in laughs and goodtimes, as his jovial nature has injected a little life into a robotic and sterile Yankees clubhouse.

Alex Rodriguez, the highest paid player in the sport, plays third base for the Yanks. Acquired prior to the 2004 season for then-second baseman Alfonso Soriano, A-Rod famously shifted from shortstop to third, so as not to ruffle Jeter’s feathers, and changed his number from 3 (retired by the Yankees in honor of Babe Ruth) to an ominous 13. Rodriguez has embodied the stereotypical Yankees acquisition: he makes the big bucks ($120,389,252 from 2004-08 with the Yanks), hits the big home runs (229 so far with the Yankees), wins the MVP awards (two so far in pinstripes), but also makes the big splashes, whether steroid related, girl related, or … guy related? Some say that the 28 games he missed this year due to hip surgery really helped him settle down and forced him to focus on proving himself as a player. He’s still kind of gimpy and will require more surgery in the offseason, but still provides some good production for his team.

Johnny Damon, their left fielder signed as a free agent in 2006 after departing from the rival Red Sox, is having a career year, on pace to shatter his career-high 24 home runs (set during his first year with the Yanks). He’s apparently stopped trying to steal bases, tailoring his slappy swing to the embarrassingly short right field fence at the new Yankee Stadium. This is the last year of his contract, and it’s not clear whether or not the Yankees want to go younger next year. He’s definitely working on building an impressive resume with this season.

Rounding out the lineup is Japanese power hitter Hideki Matsui. Signed in 2003 after hitting 50 home runs for the Yomiuri Giants, “Godzilla” played mostly left field for the Yankees until knee issues forced him to the DH role exclusively this season. He is sitting out a few games to have his knee drained of fluid, but as he has not hit the DL yet, I’ve left him in the lineup for this overview.

And that’s about it. They don’t have a fifth starter at the moment, having given Chien-Ming Wang every shot imaginable short of making him part owner of the team, but their lineup (somehow) shows no signs of slowing down, and barring a late season collapse or a barrage of injuries, I think the Yankees are the team to beat this October. At least in the American League. Look for Girardi’s Yankees to go far this year.

PREDICTION: World Series contenders. Only the collective will of every Red Sox fan in the Nation will keep them from winning it all.

Anaheim (and nowhere but Anaheim) Angels

It is with great bitterness and personal anguish that I begin to write about the ANAHEIM Angels (who play in Anaheim and not Los Angeles, and whose name, in my mind, should reflect that fact, instead of sticking out like a sore thumb as a blatant attempt to encroach on another team's territory in order to expand their fan base). Maybe it's just that I long for the days when the A's were good enough to rival the Angels, or maybe it's because I think their manager Mike Scioscia is kind of a goof, or maybe it's because I'm sick of their dumb broadcasters, or maybe it's because I ABSOLUTELY HATE THAT DARN RALLY MONKEY MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS, but something about the Angels really gets me worked up. So that's my bias, in the interest of full disclosure. That said, I give you the...

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

68-45

AL WEST (1st place out of 4)

LINEUP

3B Chone Figgins
SS Erick Aybar

RF Bobby Abreu
DH Vladimir Guerrero

LF Juan Rivera

1B Kendry Morales

C Mike Napoli

2B Howie Kendrick

CF Gary Matthews, Jr.

BENCH

C Jeff Mathis

IF Maicer Izturis

ROTATION

John Lackey

Ervin Santana

Jered Weaver

Sean O'Sullivan

Matt Palmer / Shane Loux / ???

BULLPEN

Brian Fuentes (CL)

Jason Bulger

Darren Oliver

Kevin Jepsen

Jose Arredondo

Manager: Mike Scioscia

General Manager: Tony Reagins

Owner: Arte Moreno

Payroll: $118,964,000 (6th out of 30)

The story of the 2009 Angels is the story of a perennial contender, purportedly on the decline, who are somehow managing to keep pace with the best teams in the league despite stiff (predicted) competition and many (unpredicted) setbacks.

Let's look at some of the woes their rotation has suffered. Jered Weaver (younger brother of the Dodgers' Jeff Weaver) has been the only consistent starter all year. John Lackey is pitching very well now, but his season didn't start until May 16. Ervin Santana has struggled due to injuries; he missed the first month and a half of the season, spent an additional 20 days on the DL in June, and how sports a whopping 6.38 ERA. Joe Saunders had struggled a little after surprising everyone last year, and is now on the DL to rest his sore shoulder.

Saunders's injury requires Scioscia to juggle the rest of his staff to fill two holes instead of just one. Rookie Sean O'Sullivan has made seven starts, while swingmen Matt Palmer and Shane Loux make occasional starts coming out of the bullpen. Young starter Dustin Moseley was injured after three starts. Kelvim Escobar was slated to recover from his shoulder problems that cost him the entire '08 season, but found himself finished for '09 as well after only one outing. And then of course there was the tragic death of Nick Adenhart in a car crash.

The bullpen hasn't fared much better. After losing Francisco Rodriguez to free agency the year after he broke the single season save record, the Angels signed lefty Brian Fuentes, who has been consistent but not eye-popping (4.23 ERA, 32 Saves, 2.71 Strikeouts per Walk). The two guys who were supposed to be lights out in front of him - arguably the league's best setup man Scot Shields and last year's rookie phenom Jose Arredondo - have succumbed to injuries (Shields underwent knee surgery) and an acute sophomore slump (Arredondo spent some time in the minors before being called back to the big club recently). The current bullpen consists of veteran lefty Darren Oliver, the pleasantly surprising Jason Bulger, and Olympian Kevin Jepsen.

Despite these pitching woes placing the Angels towards the bottom of the league in ERA, they trail only the Yankees and Dodgers in the win column. The predictable reason for this is the Angels' stellar offense: they are first in the league in hits and batting average, second in runs, stolen bases and on base percentage, and third in slugging percentage. This should come as no big surprise - the Angels usually finish in the top half of the league in important offensive categories. What's amazing is that they could put up such numbers this year even with key players Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Howie Kendrick missing significant time with injuries.

The Rangers are (relatively) hot on the Angel's tail - they're 4.5 games back but are right in the thick of the Wild Card race - but I think a playoff spot is pretty well secured for the Halos. If Saunders gets enough "rest" on the DL to come back and pitch effectively, they would have four "proven" starters for the playoffs, performance struggles notwithstanding. If Torii Hunter returns healthy and replaces Gary Matthews* in the lineup - and as long as Mike Scioscia stops giving so much playing time to "Mighty" Maicer Izturis - the Angels will have no problem maintaining their top flight offense.

* A word about Gary Matthews, Jr.: in 2006, Matthews signed a five-year, $50 million deal with the Angels after a career year with Texas. This deal came under a lot of criticism, as there was very little indication that Matthews could repeat those numbers. He hasn't, and is currently the Angels' third highest-paid player while hitting .248 in part time duty since signing the contract. The deal came under some more retroatctive criticism when the Angels signed Torii Hunter to a much more lucrative five-year deal the next year, making him the Angels' number one highest paid player. I guess now that Hunter's down with an injury, it's nice to have Matthews there to back him up, but it would have been a lot nicer if he weren't getting paid $10 million a year.

PREDICTION: If the season ended today, the Angels would be in for a tough playoffs, as they'd have to face Boston as the Wild Card winner, followed by (most likely) the Yankees over the Tigers in the other Division Series. I say with either of those two AL East teams, it'll come down to grit and spunk and who wants it more.

Vigilante Justice in Baseball

So the Tigers and the Red Sox got into a little scuffle last night due to some hit batters. They went back and forth throwing at each other over the course of two games, but apparently Rick Porcello crossed the line when he hit Kevin Youkilis.

Take a second to watch the video. Then consider this:

This is Porcello’s first year in the majors, and he’s enjoying a fine season, after being ranked as the Tigers' number one prospect. I know he probably has some thick skin – you have to to make it this far in his line of work – and I’m sure he has a great makeup. But Porcello is 20 years old and a rookie, while Youkilis is 30 years old and a former MVP candidate. Call it a hunch, but I have to imagine that after last night’s harrowing experience – seeing the bald, bearded, barrel-chested, mountain man-esque Kevin Youkilis charging at him like a bull – Rick Porcello will never be the same again. If he’s on your fantasy team, drop him. If you had any hopes in the Tigers, abandon them. I know I’m overreacting for dramatic effect, but I can’t imagine he’ll be totally focused on the game after spending the night before his start having nightmares about seeing Kevin Youkilis’s pine tar-stained batting helmet hurtling through the air toward his face.

This fracas occurred just two days after White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen went on record saying that he has no qualms about having his pitchers throw at opposing batters in retaliation for one of his players getting plunked, regardless of the consequences.

Now I’ve never played for a major league team, but everything I’ve seen and heard about the subject of bean ball revenge has led me to believe that there is a pretty comprehensive and well-understood system of unwritten rules in place there. And when players “break” the “rules” – as Kevin Youkilis clearly thought Rick Porcello had done – things can get out of hand, the benches can clear, and punitive action can be taken (Youk and Porc each received suspensions for their parts in the brawl). But if you have people like Guillen running their mouths about the unwritten rules, you get more people talking about it, it becomes more and more of an issue, and it gets brought to the attention of the people who make the actual written rules.

I just don’t want the institution of vigilante justice in baseball to go the way of the spitball or sign stealing or other strategies that are technically allowed by the rules and essentially policed by the players and managers themselves. There have been similar attempts to eliminate the intentional walk in the same way, and more recent baseball writers have argued for and against the tactic. I don’t like the intentional walk, personally, but I’d defend to the death (or at least to humiliation) your right to walk me on four straight pitches.

Brawls are a part of the game of baseball. You have 50 athletes all told, between the two teams in a game, and anywhere from 10 to 13 players on the field at a time. One of these players is engaged in throwing a fist-sized ball, as hard as he possibly can, towards another player, who in turn is in possession of a large wooden club, attempting to hit the tar out of this fist-sized ball. The whole enterprise is aggression-charged to say the least. The stakes are incredibly high at every moment, everyone’s giving 100% of their physical and mental ability, and tempers tend to flare in certain situations. If you try to regulate the events that lead to the brawls, you are essentially attempting to regulate the passion with which the players play their game. Not to pontificate, but that’s not the direction in which I’d like to see the game move.

Philadelphia Phillies

I talked a lot last post about a possible Dodgers-Phillies matchup in the NLCS, so I think it’s only fair to overview the Phillies next. Now these predictions aren’t meant to take anything away from the Cubs or Cardinals (or even the Giants or Padres); they all have tremendous talent, and less qualified teams have gotten farther in the playoffs than at least two of those teams will. Usually when that happens, though, it’s the result of a really close race with another team, and the momentum/adrenaline carrying the weaker team farther than normal. It’s just that if the season ended TODAY, with no exciting and dramatic playoff races, I have to believe that the teams with the most talent would face off against each other. Or maybe it’s just that last year’s NLCS is still fresh in my mind and I’m eager for a rematch.

Philadelphia Phillies
61-41
NL EAST (1st place out of 5)

LINEUP
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Raul Ibanez
RF Jayson Werth
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

BENCH
3B Greg Dobbs
C Chris Coste
OF Ben Francisco

ROTATION
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Joe Blanton
Jamie Moyer
J.A. Happ

BULLPEN
Brad Lidge (CL)
Ryan Madson
Chan Ho Park
Scott Eyre
Tyler Walker

Rodrigo Lopez

Manager: Charlie Manuel
General Manager: Ruben Amaro, Jr.
Owners: David Montgomery, Giles Limited Partnership, etc.
Payroll: $111,209,046 (8 out of 30)


So far the Phillies have had a really tough second half schedule: of the 23 games since the midsummer classic, all but four (including a single make up game against the Padres) have been against contending teams. During that span, the Phillies posted a respectable 13-10 record, despite finishing their short homestand on the wrong end of a sweep by the Marlins.

Incidentally, in the final game of that series, Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino found himself ejected from the game for showing his displeasure with a pitch that home plate umpire Ed Rapuano failed to call a strike. At 28, Victorino is the youngest player in the Phillies’ starting lineup, was named to his first All Star game this year, and played for Team USA in March’s World Baseball Classic. He’s got a fiery personality and looks to have a fine future ahead of him.

Victorino and his fellows at the top of the order represent a very similar core of players to that of the Dodgers, albeit several years later in their development than their west coast counterparts. For the Dodgers, Ethier is the oldest of the foursome at 27. The Phillies have Victorino at 28, first baseman Ryan Howard at 29, and middle infielders Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley both at age 30. Not to say that they haven’t been impressive: Rollins and Howard each have an MVP award and Utley has been a Silver Slugger at second base three years running. And Rollins has been impressive in the field as well, with two Gloves to boot (or not to boot! Get it? Like to boot the ball is to screw up in the field…? I know, I know, kind of forced).

Now, if I may, I’d like to use my dumb pun to segue into a talk about defense in general, and the Phillies’ big new offseason acquisition in particular. I’m talking, of course, about Raul Ibanez, the left-handed hitting outfielder signed as a free agent. The baseball world was abuzz with criticism of Ibanez’s 3 year, $30 million contract, especially in a recession year where teams were paying less and less for big hit, no field sluggers (cf. Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn). Furthermore, the Phillies already had two lefty sluggers (Utley and Howard), and what they really needed was a right-handed bat to replace departing free agent Pat Burrell. Or so the experts thought.

Okay, here’s another brief aside into some basic baseball strategy: the platoon split. The general principle behind this split is that left-handed batters perform worse against left-handed pitchers, and vice versa for righties. Hence the strategy of bringing in a lefty reliever to pitch to a team’s tough lefty hitter and then yanking him after only one batter. This is the origin of the acronym LOOGY: Lefty-only One Out GuY. To make this strategy of frequent pitching changes the least effective to the opposing team, the manager wants to fill out a lineup card with alternating lefty and righty hitters whenever possible. The danger of having a lineup with three lefties in a row – for example, Utley, Howard, Ibanez – is that the opposing manager can effectively kill three birds with one LOOGY in late game situations.

Not to claim foresight, or anything, but I never foresaw the platoon thing being a big issue for the Phillies. To me, it just seemed like good business sense; they found the best hitter on the market and they signed him. What concerned me was what everyone was saying about Ibanez’s defense.

The frustrating thing about defense is that you always have to rely on what everyone is saying. When you talk about a player’s offensive ability, it’s relatively easy to quantify (and thus qualify): we have statistics like batting average and OPS, home runs and RBI, etc. Likewise with pitching stats: ERA, strikeouts, wins and losses, and now even mathematical stuff like FIP. But with defense, you simply have to be there. Even something as straightforward as fielding percentage – basically, every play you made (a putout or assist without making an error) divided by the total chances to make a play – requires an eyewitness to determine whether or not a particular play should have been made (i.e. whether the batter reached base via a base hit or an error).

For a long while, fielding percentage used to rule the day in terms of evaluating a player’s defensive ability. But when experts began to give the issue some thought, they realized that it doesn’t really tell you that much about a particular player’s ability. Because there’s really no frame of reference – fielding percentage only judges the number of plays a fielder makes against the ones he doesn’t. And there’s only the subjective analysis of the official scorer to rule on whether a player should or shouldn’t have made a play.*

* And this practice can sometimes get confused when certain players make easy plays look difficult because of lack of range or poor defensive instincts. For example, when Derek Jeter makes a backhanded lunge followed by his signature jump-pivot-throw in midair, when a league average shortstop would have been able to react quicker and position himself behind the ball. Or when Torii Hunter makes a dramatic full-extension dive for a ball that a better, faster outfielder would have been able to reach on the run. Sometimes the less flashy player is actually the better fielder.

To offset this confusion, newfangled baseball thinkers/statisticians (such as John Dewan in his revolutionary Fielding Bible) got to work developing new metrics to evaluate fielding. For example, why not compare the number of times a player makes a play to the number of times the other players in the league make the same or similar plays? That way you can evaluate a player based on the league average of plays made, and not just based on how often that particular player makes an error.

Compiling all this data can be a time consuming and arduous task. There are many different methods and I don’t know how to calculate any of them. (For the braver readers among you, here and here is the logic behind one such system, ultimate zone rating (UZR). If the page looks superlong, don’t be intimidated; a lot of the length is comprised of comments.) Suffice it to say, some really smart people are doing some very insightful things regarding evaluating defensive ability, but it’s all incomplete and largely inaccessible to the lay public.

So where does all this leave us with regard to the Phillies? Prior to the season, all the fielding authorities waved their red flags around due to Raul Ibanez’s suspect Range Factor, Ultimate Zone Rating, and +/- system rankings, but his purportedly lousy defense hasn’t seemed to hurt his team much, as they currently stand atop the NL East.

If the Phillies’ lead is shrinking since they peaked in mid July, I don’t think it’s due to Ibanez taking the occasional bad route to a fly ball in left field. The recent slide may be due to the recently surging Marlins, below-average performances from some key starters, injuries running rampant through their bullpen, or just normal statistical fluctuation. With the addition of Cliff Lee shores up their starting rotation and gives them arguably unparalleled depth in that area. Closer Brad Lidge, who did not blow a save all of last season if you’ll remember, has had an awful time of it this year, currently sporting a 7.24 ERA and 6 blown saves (for only a 78% save rate). But if the back end of their bullpen and subpar defense in left field are this club’s biggest problems, I’d say they’ve put themselves in a pretty good position to make a run at repeating in October.

PREDICTION: Will be strong contenders for NL pennant. Have the possibility of getting overmatched by AL competition in the World Series.

Los Angeles Dodgers

So now officially begins my overviews of teams in the running, starting with YOUR…

Los Angeles Dodgers
67-43
NL WEST (1st place out of 5)

LINEUP
SS Rafael Furcal
RF Andre Ethier
LF Manny Ramirez
3B Casey Blake
1B James Loney
CF Matt Kemp
C Russell Martin
2B Orlando Hudson

BENCH
LF Juan Pierre
IF Mark Loretta
IF Juan Castro

ROTATION
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Randy Wolf
Clayton Kershaw
Jason Schmidt

BULLPEN
Jonathan Broxton (CL)
George Sherrill
Ramon Troncoso
Guillermo Mota
Hong-Chih Kuo
James McDonald
Brent Leach

Jeff Weaver

Manager: Joe Torre
General Manager: Ned Colletti
Owner: Frank McCourt
Payroll: $100,008,592 (11 out of 30)


Because the Dodgers are actually a postseason-caliber team, it will be a little easier to evaluate them position by position, rather than focusing on recent history and trying to explain why their season did not go according to Plan. But, because I’m a sucker for historical context, here’s a little of what the Dodgers were up to before this season:

The Dodgers had somewhat of a storybook season last year. Led by new manager Joe Torre – fresh off a tenure with the Yankees in which he led his team to the playoffs 12 times in as many years (including four World Series titles and two AL pennants) – their core of seven or eight young, talented, homegrown players was just starting to blossom. Add into the mix a midseason acquisition of Manny Ramirez, one of the game’s best pure hitters, and you’ve got a recipe for success. They sailed past the Diamondbacks into the playoffs, and swept the heavily favored Cubs in the first round, before falling to the eventual World Series champion Phillies in the NL Championship Series.

After the season, all eyes were on Manny. His amazing performance all but propelled the Dodgers into October, but he would become a free agent during the off-season, and everyone from baseball execs to economists to Joe the Fan was speculating about his value. Sure he’s one of the most talented hitters perhaps ever, but he would turn 37 in May of 2009, he can’t field, he can’t run, he doesn’t hustle, and his clubhouse antics are so legendary that fans of his former team, the Red Sox, coined a phrase to describe them: “Manny Being Manny.” (The straw that broke the camel’s back for the Sox was when Ramirez shoved the team’s traveling secretary to the ground after an argument over ticket requests.) So everyone involved knew that as far as Man Ram is concerned, you have to take the good with the bad. But despite the potential drawbacks, the Dodgers offered Ramirez a pretty generous two-year, $45 million deal…which was ignored by Ramirez’s powerhouse agent Scott Boras.

This mess continued for several months. I’ll spare you the gory details (mostly so I can spare myself the task of reliving the horrible drama). Basically it went back and forth between the team and the player: Manny wanted more years and more dollars, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt wanted to make a reasonable investment, and Boras tried to drive the price up by convincing everyone that there were more teams involved in the Manny sweepstakes. But anyone willing to do the research could see that there were really no other such teams: the Yankees had the money, but Manny doesn’t fit their image (plus if anything happened to him on or off the field, they would never hear the end of it from Red Sox Nation), the Giants quickly dispelled all rumors floating around their organization, and the Angels weren’t about to shell out the cash. So as the winter progressed and eventually turned into spring, it became clear that this was really a one horse race, and yet Manny and Boras still continued to hold out.

Then finally, on March 5, Manny signed a contract that was virtually identical to the one originally offered in November, with one small tweak: the new contract was for one year with a player option for a second, meaning that Manny and only Manny (and Boras) could decide if he wanted to stick around for 2010. And based on the cold reception Ramirez faced in his age-37 free agency, there is very little evidence that many teams would be interested in Manny during his age-38 free agency.

So Manny was cemented in the lineup and the team got off to a very nice start (despite Manny having the nerve to complain about not getting enough spring training at bats to get into his groove. Never mind the fact that it was his childish holdout that caused him to miss 14 exhibition games this spring). Then the other shoe dropped. In early May, the story broke that Ramirez tested positive for a substance banned by MLB’s drug policy, and would have to serve the 50 game suspension for a first offense. The drug was not a steroid, but HCG, or human chorionic gonadotropin, a female fertility drug that players allegedly take to ease them off a steroid cycle. The funny thing about this case is that the drug is actually allowed by MLB given special consent, a request for which Manny, of course, neglected to file.

At this point, many experts pronounced the Dodgers’ season dead and their organizational integrity in ruins (as I simultaneously made the same diagnosis about my fantasy team, Manny being the cornerstone of my lineup). However, with Juan Pierre putting up great numbers as the replacement left fielder, the Dodgers posted a respectable 29-21 record in Manny’s absence, and stayed firmly atop the NL West. And there they remain, unshaken by the recent revelation that Ramirez tested positive for steroids in 2003 (along with then-teammate David Ortiz and about 100 other unpublished names).

So with all the Manny drama now behind us, here’s some thoughts about the current Dodgers team, which is remarkably similar to the team they fielded on opening day:

The aforementioned “core of young, talented, homegrown players” consists of catcher Russell Martin, first baseman James Loney, right fielder Andre Ethier, and center fielder Matt Kemp. Martin is struggling mightily at the plate (a result of playing in the World Baseball Classic for Team Canada, perhaps?), and Loney hasn’t developed the power swing everyone expected of him, but Ethier’s out-slugging everyone on the team save Manny (and is as clutch as clutch can be, if you believe in such things), and Matt Kemp’s the total package, a complete “Five Tool Player” (the five tools being, for those of you unaccustomed to the scouting tradition, hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, defense, and arm strength/accuracy). It’s a combination of great luck and smart organizational management that so many players 27 or under (not even yet counting the pitchers) peaked at exactly the same time and will get to play together for years to come.

To fill the hole at second base left by the retiring Jeff Kent, the Dodgers signed free agent Orlando Hudson for one year and just over $3 million – a steal considering his stellar defense, solid bat, and exemplary clubhouse reputation. (If you’ve ever seen him give an interview, there’s no denying his absolutely compelling personality.) He started the year like gangbusters and more than picked up the slack batting third when Ramirez was out of the lineup, but he has cooled off a bit and has been dropped in recent batting orders.

They resigned free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal after he entertained offers from both the A’s and the Giants. He played extremely well in an injury-shortened ’08 season (1.012 OPS in 36 games), but has struggled so far this year (.705 OPS, 54 points down from his career average). Last year’s deadline acquisition Casey Blake is a nice holdover at third base, hitting for very respectable power at age 35. Juan Pierre and Mark Loretta are solid veteran spot starters off the bench.

Chad Billingsley – another member of “the core” – took over as staff ace from departing free agent Derek Lowe. Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda is starting to settle down after having spent 55 days on the DL in April and May. Veteran free agent signee Randy Wolf is back for his second tour of duty with LA in three years; he pitched 18 games for the Dodgers in 2007. Despite last year being his first full season since 2003, Wolf has been the model of consistency this year, leading the league in games started (an honor shared, incidentally, with Derek Lowe, who signed with the Braves). Young lefty phenom Clayton Kershaw had his first taste of the show last year, and is now being asked to shoulder quite a load considering his tender age of 21. And despite walking too many batters, I’d say his 2.89 ERA speaks for itself.

The fifth starter spot has been kind of a revolving door the whole season. They’ve tried youngsters Eric Stults and James McDonald, with unimpressive results. Veteran Eric Milton made a five start comeback, before going down for back surgery. Jeff Weaver has four starts, but has spent most of his time pitching out of the bullpen. The spot now belongs to Jason Schmidt, who just recently made his first major league start in 764 days due to injury. There are still some questions, but luckily no team really needs five solid starters for the playoffs.

The bullpen, anchored by Jonathan Broxton and former Orioles closer George Sherrill (the Dodgers’ only major midseason trade this year), has very few weak points. Those that come to mind: LOOGY Brent Leach’s balloon-like ERA (and who says you even need a lefty in the bullpen?) and Guillermo Mota’s tendency to put runners on base, despite fine overall numbers. Torre’s favorite reliever for the start of the season, rookie Ronald Belisario, has been on the 15-day DL for almost a month now (elbow soreness from being overused?), but hopes to return soon. I don’t see the Dodgers blowing many late game leads down the stretch.

Looking ahead to the playoffs, the only concern looks to be the starting pitching. If the season ended today, the Phillies would be the Dodgers’ only really competition in the NL – they are the only team with a comparable lineup, and the acquisition of Cliff Lee puts them in an enviable position regarding rotation depth. But this is a much stronger Dodger team than the one that lost to the Phillies in the NLCS last year. I’d say the Dodgers have the talent and the spunk to represent their league in the Fall Classic. As far as matching up against juggernauts such as the Yankees or Red Sox, only time will tell.

PREDICTION: Favored NLCS Winners. Farther than that, I cannot say.

BREAKING NEWS!!!

*RED SCARE!
In this clip, the Royals mascot grabs a tray of cotton candy from a vendor, and starts throwing them out to people in the crowd. I guess that's one way to redistribute the wealth. Imagine if they had been playing the Cincinnati REDS, eh? Get it? Reds, communists? Did you know that for a short period during the actual Red Scare (1954-59), the Reds actually changed their name to the Cincinnati Redlegs? And people talk about fear-mongering nowadays....

*GIAMBYE-BYE!
So Jason Giambi's farewell tour back in Oakland has come to an end, as the A's have released their injured and ailing first baseman. Giambi played a central part in the steroid era drama, as one of the first active players to have admitted to taking steroids. But he presumably cleaned himself up and put up some fine power numbers since then. Plus, he has always had a great eye and showed a knack for taking walks, a natural skill that not even steroids can improve. I think his decline this year was due mostly to age (he's 38 with bad knees), moving from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park, and having to spend more time in the field than he probably should have. He was never a good defensive first baseman, but at this point in his career, he should probably have been a dedicated DH. But of course he doesn't hasn't been hitting like a DH recently, what with that aforementioned .193 average. And with the list of players who tested positive for steroids in 2003 becoming public, and seeing as Giambi's already been on the DL for over two weeks, now seems like as good a time as any to release the Giambino. I still love that sweet swing of his, though...

Oakland Athletics

Okay, I know I said I would do an overview of the teams in the running, and at 18 games back on August 6, the A’s do not appear to be in that category. In fact, of all the things the A’s are “in” – the midst an insurmountable deficit, organizational turmoil, deep trouble come to mind – “the running” is probably last on the list. But those of you who know me also know that this blog would not adequately express my passion for baseball without showing at least some preferential treatment to the Oakland Athletics. I promise the blog as a whole will not be totally biased or one-sided; it’s not A’s Nation (although I strongly suggest checking it out if you want great in-depth analysis of the team).

So without further ado, here’s Thoughts About Baseball’s first team overview:

Oakland Athletics
47-61
AL WEST (4th place out of 4)

LINEUP
3B Adam Kennedy
CF Rajai Davis
LF Scott Hairston
DH Jack Cust
C Kurt Suzuki
1B Tommy Everidge
RF Ryan Sweeney
2B Mark Ellis
SS Cliff Pennington

BENCH
1B/3B Nomar Garciaparra
IF Bobby Crosby

ROTATION
Dallas Braden
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Vin Mazzaro
Gio Gonzalez

BULLPEN
Andrew Bailey (CL)
Brad Ziegler
Michael Wuertz
Russ Springer
Santiago Casilla
Craig Breslow

Edgar Gonzalez

Manager: Bob Geren
General Manager: Billy Beane
Owner: Lew Wolff
Payroll: $56,089,250 (27 out of 30)

Prior to the 2009 season, many experts picked this team to pose a legitimate threat to the Angels for first place in the AL West. But, as you may have guessed based on the current standings, things didn’t go according to The Plan.

To fully understand The Plan, we have to talk a little bit about the plan-maker, GM Billy Beane. Relatively unsuccessful in his 6 major league seasons as a player (1984-89), Beane became the General Manager of the A’s in 1998. He proved to be an extremely capable front office man, putting together squads that would make the playoffs five years out of an eight year span (2000-03, 06). He made some really interesting decisions, and – as chronicled in Michael Lewis’s 2003 novel Moneyball – helped revolutionize MLB’s system of player evaluation.*

* This revolution consisted of a shift from classic “scouting” methods (basically judging a player based on how he looks, or his athletic ability (or “tools”)) to more advanced statistical analysis. If you’re at all interested in this revolution and its consequences, I encourage you to check out Stephen Soderbergh’s film adaptation of Moneyball, if it ever hits theaters.

Now the A’s find themselves perennially strapped for cash – their payroll this year is 27th out of the 30 major league teams; they are dead last in the AL – so over the years, Beane found himself having to either let his best, highest profile players sign with other teams as free agents, or trade them away for lower cost alternatives. And with the departure of these players, the A’s gradually fell out of contention. But Beane continued to work behind the scenes, stocking the A’s minor league system with very promising pitching prospects.

Before the 2009 season, someone apparently convinced Beane that all his young pitchers would simultaneously reach their potential this year, so he made a characteristically flashy trade and some uncharacteristic free agent signings to upgrade the A’s offense. In the trade, Beane sent former star closer Huston Street, serviceable young starting pitcher Greg Smith, and future star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies for slugging left fielder Matt Holliday. He also signed former A’s MVP first basemen Jason Giambi, aging shortstop Orlando Cabrera, a couple of seasoned relievers (Russ Springer and Michael Wuertz), and veteran corner infielder Nomar Garciaparra. (Nomar apparently gave the A’s an ultimatum before this season: sign me to a contract or I retire. For some reason, he really wanted to wear the green and gold this year…)

The A’s young pitchers stacked up like so: the projected staff ace was Justin Duchscherer, a converted reliever who made the All Star team last year before missing significant time due to injury. Number two was Dallas Braden, a soft-tossing lefty with good mound presence and a fierce competitive attitude. (That, by the way, is a good example of “scout speak.”)

The remaining three spots in the rotation were to be filled by a large pool comprised of pitchers acquired via trade (Dana Eveland from the Diamondbacks, Josh Outman from the Phillies, Gio Gonzalez from the White Sox, and Sean Gallagher from the Cubs) and recent draft picks (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro). Aside from their names and Beane’s insistence that they were all major league ready, nobody, not even Billy himself, had any real idea who would pitch where, when, or how.

Presumably, Beane’s strategy would have worked, if everything went according to Plan. But then came the injuries.

During spring training, the A’s found out that Duchscherer would have to start the season on the DL to have surgery on his pitching elbow. He hasn’t played yet this season. Their projected closer, Joey Devine, also had elbow surgery, and was pronounced out for the season before the end of April. Josh Outman, arguably their most effective starting pitcher, went down for the season in late June. Hard throwing reliever Santiago Casilla was on the DL for half of May, but is now back, albeit with a rather ugly ERA of 5.58.

As far as hitters go, starting third basemen Eric Chavez played only 8 games before succumbing to his chronic back problems (his most recent relapse resulted from simply rising from a chair). Second baseman Mark Ellis missed 55 games due to injury. Nomar Garciaparra has been gimpy all season and still needs plenty of rest between appearances.

Just as devastating as injuries was ineffectiveness. Dana Eveland and Sean Gallagher had to be sent down to the minors (Gallagher was later traded). Gio Gonzalez, while just now starting to find a groove, didn’t start to miss bats until late July. And the “new big three” of Anderson, Cahill, and Mazzaro (referring of course to the old Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito) have been wildly inconsistent (as you would reasonably expect from a trio of pitchers barely old enough to drink).

On the hitting side, Matt Holliday apparently suffered from the move to a ballpark closer to sea level than the one he was used to. (If you haven’t heard the stories about the ball flying farther in Coors Field because of the altitude, you should have.) Jason Giambi, despite hitting 32 home runs last year, finally began to feel his age – he sported a league low batting average of .193 (minimum however many At-Bats) at the time of his placement on the DL. He will not be missed much. The only bright spots on the roster were rookie closer Andrew Bailey, hot hitting new acquisition Adam Kennedy, and the fact that Jack Cust is no longer on pace to strike out 900 times this season.

So come deadline time, Beane began unloading. After first, curiously enough, acquiring streaky outfielder Scott Hairston from the Padres, Beane shipped Holliday off to the Cardinals for prospects, and sent Cabrera to the Twins for a box of rocks. The pitching staff remained relatively untouched, and if you can believe the hype about these kids, it will be the same rotation we’ll see on this team for many years.

Thoughts about the current lineup: Suzuki and Ellis are still solid; Rajai Davis is a nice speedy surprise in center; Jack Cust continues to hit home runs, walk, and strike out with great frequency; first base is a bit of a mess, with Giambi and last year’s starter Daric Barton both on the DL; outfield prospects Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, and Aaron Cunningham will hit soon, I promise; and Cliff Pennington is the shortstop of the future, as it appears that Beane is finally ready to give up on the Bobby Crosby experiment. (NEWSFLASH: A Rookie of the Year award five years ago is not reason enough to reward subpar performance at every level, except maybe defense.)

PROJECTED FINISH: Way too far out of it to even mention.

So that’s how the Athletics’ season is going. Check back later for more teams.