Monday, May 30, 2011

Happy Memorial Day!

Happy Memorial Day to all you out in the blag-o-blag! I hope you're all enjoying your well-earned holiday and the nonstop baseball action on the Tube! For me, it's Tim Hudson leading the Atlanta Braves against Aaron Harang and the San Diego Padres. It's funny to think that in my Developed Universe, Huddy would still be leading the A's... but such is the ever-changing flux of life.

It's also funny to think that TV used to be known colloquially as "the tube" (presumably because it was made of some kind of tube). I guess that's still a slang term, but generally - at least among the ever-expanding higher-tech crowd - the term "tube" (or "tubes") has now come to refer to the Internet... which is gradually replacing television as the way most Americans get most of their entertainment. Coincidence? Or is our culture somehow inextricably linked with the concept of tubes?

I've taken the holiday weekend off from my Developed Teams project (also cuz I'm spending most of my time trying to solve virtual 1940s crimes in L.A. Noire), but seeing these two teams play has given me an idea of who to write about next. Once I'm done with my slate of currently-planned programming. Long Story Short: Expect to see the Braves' and the Padres' developed teams up here sometime in the next week. You might be surprised about which current stars land on the list...

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Developed Teams 2011: Oakland Athletics

Oh Boy! The A's are in town! I noticed when I saw them on my local Fox Sports affiliate, playing against the (not quite) hometown (but wish they were) Angels. In honor of this series - and because the A's are unabashedly my favorite baseball team - I'll move straight on in my Developed Teams project, to the Oakland Athletics.




First of all, to start with what I always start with: developed players still with the team = Eight (8). Not as much as the Cubs or the Red Sox, two teams with significantly higher payrolls in significantly better baseball markets. It makes sense that a team with a historically great farm system but historically poor finances has historically been forced to part with some of their best talent. But you must do the what you can with what you have where you are.

What might have been...
Rather than focus on those eight, let's marvel at the sheer outfield power the A's have traded away, most without even playing a single game for Oakland's big club. Of the 463 HR and 1,580 RBI that came out of the outfielders on this roster (Andre Ethier, Cruz, Swisher, and Ludwick [as DH here]), only 80 HR and 255 RBI benefitted the A's (all from Swisher from 2004-07). And who did the A's get via trade for these outfield talents? Milton Bradley, Keith Ginter, Gio Gonzalez / Ryan Sweeney, and Carlos Pena, respectively. ONE player who's made a significant difference in the majors. Sad showing from Mr. Moneyball indeed.

Of course it took a little juggling and creativity to get all those outfielders into my lineup, as Swisher has only played CF close to regularly in 2007-08, when he played to the tune of 30 total zone fielding runs BELOW average with the A's and White Sox. Also, while we're on the topic, Mark Teahen has played exactly 3 games at 2B in his whole career. But the only other infield options - Bobby Crosby and Esteban German - haven't played at all yet in 2011, so I would feel bad about giving them a spot.

Look at that defensive whiz...
Some of those guys to whom I did give spots are there for purely sentimental reasons. I'm looking at early 2000's throwbacks Eric "Chokey" Chavez, Jason "Yankee-steroid-apologist" Jerk-ambi, and to some extent Miguel "MVT" Tejada. But Chavez won a bench job with the Yankees out of Spring Training, Giambi's got an OPS over 1.000 to go with 6 HR in part-time duty with the Rockies, and Tejada's starting at SS for the defending World Series Champions. So as far as nostalgia goes, you could do much worse.

The three A's batters currently with the team are still struggling to find themselves and develop into their full potential. Barton, Suzuki, and Pennington are all entering the prime of their careers, all performing under their potential, and all lacking in the one aspect the A's currently need most: power at the plate. Two of the four A's pitchers currently with the team are out with injuries: Andrew Bailey since the beginning of the year and Dallas Braden for the rest of the year. Trevor Cahill (despite losing his second game last night) and Brad Ziegler have been absolutely solid in their roles.

Teammates called his 2-seam fastball "supersink"
Cahill and Braden are joined by three veterans, two of which are former members of the Big 3, and the third is a current non-member of baseball's most famous Big 4. Tim Hudson's ERA is approaching his FIP; Joe Blanton has been dubbed the "mere mortal" on a Philadelphia staff filled with greats; and Barry Zito - just when you think he's about to turn things around (the Hardball Times even published a study confirming as much), he drops off a cliff again.

I picked my two long relievers - Vin Mazzaro and Tyson Ross - because they're young and hip and likely to make contributions to their big league clubs this year. If I were going for established major leaguers (albeit ones whose 2011 future is uncertain), I could have just as easily gone with Rich Harden (signed by the A's, but injured) and Jeremy Bonderman (unsigned).

Check out the three closers in this bullpen! Three projected closers, anyway. Bailey's been hurt (see above) and Kevin Gregg's been ineffective enough that he probably wouldn't be closing if a better pitcher were available. Strategically, it would probably be better to replace him with a lefty - him or Santiago Casilla, who's  been awful so far this year. But for the bullpen, I wanted to get all the high profile, established guys in there.

There's a lineup made up of only players developed by the A's, each one with their own story to tell. Next time, I'll feature their opponents in this four-game series - AL West rivals, the Orange County Angels of Anaheim.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Developed Teams 2011: Chicago Cubs

Because my post about the Red Sox's developed lineup was such a success (judged only by my own standards), I'll continue right away with their opponents in last weekend's interleague series: The Chicago Cubs.




To continue the tradition, let's look at the players developed by the Cubs who are still currently with the Cubs: for the record there are 11. Four of those 11 are starting pitchers - Zambrano, Wells, and Cashner were projected to start in the rotation, but the latter two have managed only one game apiece so far in 2011; the fourth, Coleman (listed as LR), has been making (rather poor) starts in their stead. Three more are relievers - current star closer (Marmol), returning former starter (Wood), and returning ever-solid setup man (Marshall).

For batters, they have former All-Star catcher Geovany Soto and future All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro. Outfielder Tyler Colvin is trying to bounce back from a puncture wound from a broken bat that ended his 2010 season. He hasn't done a good job of it so far, but I think he shows a lot of promise. The 11th player on this list, Kosuke Fukudome, brings up an issue that I could have addressed with Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima: players "developed" by a foreign country's baseball league. While it's not really proper to lump these foreign stars in with legitimate homegrown talent, I find it better than the alternative, which is to just leave them out of the project altogether.

As far as stars that Chicago let get away, the list is pretty thin. Casey McGehee has shown some offensive firepower, but he's got some world class lineup protection with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Who knows if he has what it takes to anchor an offense all by himself. Corey Patterson and Ryan Theriot both have had careers alternating between acceptable and awful. And Eric Hinske isn't even a starter for his current team (Braves). The bench is a mish-mash of also-rans and defensive replacements.

Ricky Nolasco has blossomed into a pretty great starter, but their rotation could still be in trouble considering Sergio Mitre has moved exclusively to the bullpen following his trade to the Brewers. The rest of the relievers have been very effective, some of them very surprisingly (I'm looking at you Kyle Farnsworth, in his first season closing full-time, at age 35). Downs and Wuertz: for pitchers who can only manage 1 IP per game and don't rack up a lot of saves, I suppose they're about as good as you can get.

Honorable Mentions: Darwin Barney won the starting 2B job out of Spring Training, and his .315 avg would totally earn him a spot if we were going by 2011 stats alone. Sam Fuld wowed some peeps in the early days of the season with some timely hitting and a couple of great defensive plays, but he's slowed down a bit (all except for his 12 SB). Jeff Samardzija and Juan Cruz are threatening to put together very solid seasons in middle relief. And if Jamie Moyer comes out of retirement, I'm gonna have to find a spot for him on this roster somewhere...

Monday, May 23, 2011

Developed Teams 2011: Boston Red Sox

Inspired by the historic series on ESPN and Fox, I've decided to start my developed teams project with the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs (separately, of course). Seems like as good a place to start as any. So without further ado, here's how the Boston Red Sox would look today if they were allowed to keep all the greats and near-greats that they developed through their minor league system:



10 players from this team are currently on Boston's real-life active roster (6 of whom are legitimate stars), which seems to be pretty good in terms of player retention. I don't really know how it will stack up against later teams, as I've just started this project and patterns haven't really started to emerge yet. It will generally be the case that teams use a glut of homegrown players on their roster, as they're usually both young and cheap. 2 more players (both from the bench) are still in Boston's system, but have yet to log any playing time in 2011. The fact that players of this sort are on the team at all bespeaks a relative lack of serviceable major league position players developed by Boston.

In fact, their roster is so weak that they couldn't even fill a whole 9 spots with current major leaguers - as you'll notice, flameout prospect Brandon Moss (you might remember him from the Manny Ramirez deal?) is currently languishing in the Phillies' AAA affiliate. And David Eckstein on the bench is still an unsigned free agent. But the rest of the lineup should make up for the weak links. Jacoby Ellsbury has bounced back from an injury-wasted year, and Dustin Pedroia should follow suit soon. Kevin Youkilis plays third base in real life (IRL), but I had to shift him to first due to a surplus of infielders (Freddy Sanchez won a batting title in '06 while playing third base... let's just ignore that he hasn't played there since).

The hottest player who Boston let get away is clearly Hanley Ramirez, who played exactly 2 games for the Sox before starting off an All-Star career following a trade to Florida. He's currently off to a slow start, but like Pedroia we should count on him to improve. Also headed to Florida in that same trade is Developed Boston's 5th starter Anibal Sanchez. This brings up an interesting quality of these teams: players who were developed by a certain team, but who never played any games with that team. The bottom three starters in Boston's rotation share this quality.

Carl Pavano was drafted by the Red Sox and made it all the way to AAA in their system before being traded to Montreal for Pedro Martinez the year before his debut. Jorge de la Rosa was signed by Arizona, but only pitched for them for one year before jumping ship for the Mexican Leagues for a year. The Red Sox then picked him up, developed him all the way through AAA, then sent him to Milwaukee (by way of Arizona) again a year before his debut. The same situation happened with their nos. 2 and 3 setup men, Francisco and Betancourt respectively.

You'll notice two starting pitchers in relief pitcher slots. I felt no need to punish teams that have developed an excess of starters by relegating their nos. 6 through 8 or 9 to fantastical Developed AAA teams. So on teams that deserve it, I've given them a little extra flexibility. If we were going on 2011 stats alone, Justin Masterson (5-2, 2.52 ERA) would clearly replace Pavano (2-4, 5.30), but as I said before I'm going more on pre-season predictions, which are more permanent and requires less keeping track.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Developed Teams 2011, an intro.

On the Rockies vs. Phillies game on ESPN, the commentators made a point about how Todd Helton has one of the longest active careers having played with only one team. It's been more than 14 years since Helton first picked up a bat and strapped on his first baseman's mit for the Colorado Rockies, and he hasn't put on a different uniform since.

I don't remember who the other players on that list were, but Helton's very impressive career got me thinking about team loyalty. When an organization signs an amateur player and shepherds him to the major leagues, there is a natural bond that forms between the player and the team. Whatever might happen to that player after his debut, there's never any doubt as to which team found that player (whether through the draft or a free agent signing) and made him major league ready - for what team he is a "homegrown" player.

Similarly, if a prospect spends significant time getting "developed" in one team's system and then is traded to another team just prior to his debut, I'd say the bond falls with the "developing" team, rather than the debuting team. Furthermore, the developing team doesn't necessarily have to be the drafting team, if a young player happens to be traded soon after being picked up. There's no set science and a lot of it has to do with feel and instinct.

Now, with that concept of developed teams in mind, imagine a world in which all active players still played with the teams that developed them. No trades, no contracts - just all rosters set up this way for a single season - let's call it this season. What might that look like? Who would have the best teams? Where would the best players be? And which teams have been the best not only at developing the best players, but holding on to them as well?

I have to make a confession: I'd been thinking about this issue even before I heard the ESPN blurb about Todd Helton. Long before, in fact. This idea of homegrown teams goes all the way back to an old baseball periodical I used to read back in the early 2000s. Then they made another appearance in Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups, which I read thoroughly. I've even recreated these "developed teams" in several different points in history using video games as a simulator. (In the past, I've done this experiment with All-Star Baseball 2001 for the N64 and MVP Baseball 2005 for the PS2. You may think I have too much time on my hands? Not so: I just complete the project really really fast.)

I am currently in the process of completing this experiment with current rosters, with the hope of using MLB 11 The Show this time around. As you can imagine, I'm using the default rosters - no reason to get myself HACKZD by downloading roster updates on a compromised network. Concurrently, I will be putting an inordinate amount of weight on preseason rankings rather than tracking each player's progress through the 2011 season.

I'll be posting these developed lineups as I complete them and deem them worthy for publishing. They will be done quickly and in no particular order. I will address and attempt to explain certain ambiguous decisions where the developing team isn't crystal clear. Hopefully, as I hope for every project I do for this blog, it will be fun for me and interesting to read about. Only you, the readers, can be the judges.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Top 50 Prospects

One of the most exciting aspects for the more forward-thinking fans of professional sports is analyzing who has the best chance to become the stars of tomorrow. Some of us are content to gape in awe at today's All-Stars and league leaders and admire their amazing talent and the impressive numbers they put on the board in the present. But, as the Roman Emperors knew all too well, glory is fleeting, and today's franchise players are tomorrow's journeymen, and it's always nice to keep an eye on those who will take up their mantle.

With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at MLB's list of Top 50 Prospects heading into the 2011 season. And, since we all have a short attention span, I'm going to focus my look on those players likely to spend significant time in the majors in 2011. To do this, I will look at the 2010 Top 50 list (that's as far back as my research goes) and try to determine some patterns.

21 of the Top 50 prospects in 2010 spent significant time at the Major League level last year. 11 of those 21 spent some time at AAA in 2009, the last year contributing to their ranking. 9 of the remaining 10 peaked at AA. And 1 special pitcher made it to The Show without even one full year in the minors. Bonus points if you can name that pitcher. I'll give you a hint: he's not on the Top 50 list for 2011, as he will likely miss the entire year following right elbow surgery. That's right, not one of the Top 50 2010 jumped directly from any level of class A to the majors.

Moving ahead to the 2011 list, let's start by looking at holdovers from last year. There are 21 members on the '11 list who also made an appearance on the '10 list. Since my research only goes back a year, I can't be certain as to how making an appearance on two lists in a row affects chances of success in the Majors. But thinking it through logically, it shouldn't bode well. Prospects are only valuable insofar as they quickly graduate from prospecthood into Major League playerness. The longer someone remains a prospect, the less chances he has to be part of a Major League team. But on the other hand, if someone is twice recognized as a top prospect, shouldn't that be a clear sign that the talent is there? We'll just have to wait until 2012 to find out.

Looking back at my observation about Class A ballplayers, there are 14 players on the 2011 list who peaked at Class A or lower. I would say that we could rule these guys out immediately, except that 3 of these guys are among the 21 holdovers from last year. We'll have to see how these two interplaying statuses affect their chances of reaching the big leagues.

10 players on the 2011 list spent at least a little time in the Majors in 2010, vs. only 7 players on the 2010 list who reached the bigs in 2009. 6 of the 2010 7 made meaningful contributions to their 2010 clubs. Looking at the 2011 10, I see 8 who were slated to start with their 2011 clubs (according to the all-important Sports Illustrated predictions). Here's the full 10, organized by placement on the 2011 prospect list:


Hellickson and Drabek have settled in as solid starters for their teams. Minor, SI's pick to start the season as the Braves' 5th starter, appeared in just one game before losing the job to Brandon Beachy (who has been absolutely lights out). Chapman and Sale have been languishing in the non-Save-earning depths of their respective bullpens - the former dazzling and the latter struggling.

Domonic Brown would have started the season for the Phillies had he not broke his hand. Desmond Jennings had a more uncertain role - the Rays' acquisitions of Johnny Damon made the baseball world question whether the highly touted outfield prospect was as ready for action as we all thought he was. Freeman is barely holding onto the starting job in Atlanta and Arencibia is slugging pretty well for a Catcher, which plays right into Toronto's game plan. And Alonso is blocked at First Base by a dude better known as the NL MVP last year. He and Brown are the only two members on this list without any time in the Majors in '11.

Of the remaining 40 players on the list - all with no major league experience - only 3 saw playing time in April: Michael Pineda (SP, SEA), Zach Britton (SP, BAL), and Brandon Belt (1B, SF). ALL of those 3 were first timers on the list. To attempt to put that number in perspective: out of those 10 players charted above, 5 were first-timers on the list in '11. Keep in mind, though that we've only just passed the first half of the first third of the season, so a lot of these guys will still make it to The Show before we wrap up the playoffs.

I hope that sufficiently breaks down at least some of the more familiar names on the list. I would expect even casual fans to have heard of the likes of #1 ranked Mike Trout, fierce phenom Bryce Harper, and sure-to-be-fast-tracked-to-the-majorsDustin Ackley, but the rest of those minor league guys likely won't reach prominence until they're called up for the first time. Until then, we can only wait, watch the list, and think about the future...

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

National League All-Acquired Team 2011

It's been a while since Part 1 of my All-Acquired Team project hit the tubes a couple weeks ago - it turns out that real actual-factual baseball (plus the emergence of my fantasy team as an early powerhouse!) has had more interest for me than my lists. But I'm of the mind that completing a project is nearly as important as starting it, so I'd like to bring this little experiment to a close, with the...


2011 NATIONAL LEAGUE
ALL-ACQUIRED TEAM



At first glance, the lack of offense is the most immediately apparent feature of this roster. You can only see two significant threats: Jayson Werth (signed a huge Free Agent deal with the Nationals) and Dan Uggla (acquired via trade by the Braves). Of Werth's three full big league seasons, they've all been good (for an average of 4.2 WAR), but they've all come in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park with an All-Star offense surrounding him. Uggla has never had an OPS below .800 in his 5 seasons in the bigs - all with the Marlins after being acquired as a Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks. After those two, the lineup consists mostly of question-marks and also-rans.

Carlos Pena gets pretty high marks in MLB's pre-season rankings; I guess they're banking on a change of scenery from the miserable dome in St. Petersburg FL to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field in Chicago will account for his batting average rising above the mendoza line. (It hasn't yet in his 20 games with the Cubs, as he's currently sitting at .169.) His backup is high-strikeout slugger Adam LaRoche, who joins Werth on the Nationals. Interestingly enough, when I plugged this lineup into MLB 11: The Show, the CPU picked LaRoche to start over Pena. The swp from 2011 backs up this decision.

The rest of the starting infield features an aging shortstop who experts say can't really play the position anymore (Miguel Tejada, signed by the World Champion Giants) and a utility infielder who is projected to spend most of his actual 2011 time vying for playing time (Ty Wigginton, signed with the Rockies). The bench actually looks pretty strong with an established middle infielder in Ryan Theriot (who will start at SS for the Cardinals) and a lot of versatility in All-Star Omar Infante (traded for Dan Uggla) and Bill Hall (Astros) - both super-utility types turned regular second basemen. They would look really strong if they had a decent team to back up.

Rounding out the outfield is Cameron Maybin, whose defensive talents should really shine through for the Padres in spacious Petco Park, and Lance Berkman, who will attempt to play in the outfield regularly for the first time in six years. The move seemed to rejuvenate him; he's hitting .378 with 6 HR for the Cardinals. Nyjer Morgan, who rather recently became eligible for this list, can back up any of the outfield spots.

The real strength of this team is the starting pitching. We've all heard about Cliff Lee and his signing by the Mystery Team *cough* Phillies *cough*, and he's continued his lights-out K/BB brilliance into 2011. But the real depth to this imaginary staff comes with two acquisitions by the Brewers. Yes I know that Zack Greinke is still injured and hasn't made his '11 debut yet, but MLB 11: The Show picked him as the #1 starter over Lee. Shaun Marcum has pitched to a very nice 2.73 ERA, 1.146 WHIP in his 5 starts. Matt Garza has been striking out everyone for the Cubs, despite being unlucky in the win department. And Javier Vazquez hasn't been anywhere close to regaining his 2009 form with the braves (6.52 ERA, 2.017 WHIP).

But the talent doesn't stop with five pitchers, and this is reflected in the Long Relief (LR) position. Kevin Correia has already thrown a complete game and came out of the bullpen for the Pirates and Aaron Harang leads the league in wins pitching for the Padres. Other notable starters who were left off the roster: Jon Garland (also a complete game after a late start for the Dodgers), Tom Gorzelanny (struggling a bit for the Nationals), Armando Galarraga (trying to give the Diamondbacks a taste of his near-perect glory), and Chris Young (trying to re-jump-start his injury-plagued career with the Mets).

Quite a wealth of arms; I would have included more on the roster, but I felt it was necessary to represent with a complement of full-time relievers. Which would be worth it if there were more than two useful relievers acquired by NL teams over the 2010-11 off-season. We've got J.J. Putz, re-entering the closer market with the Diamondbacks, and doing a darn good job of it. We've got Takashi Saito, a former closer in Japan, who was brought in to set up and mentor the Brewers' young Canadian closer John Axford before going on the DL with a hamstring strain. And then we've got the rest.

My next project (really it's more of an idea) has to do with the hottest prospects in the game, and which of them we have a chance to see reach the majors any time soon. But before I get around to analyzing MLB's Top 50 list, we'll hit the one-month mark of the 2011 season, which I feel requires some sort of recognition and recap of the top performers so far.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Liveblogging Jackie Robinson Day (Already)

Turned on the MLB Network to see the Yankees hosting the Rangers. And I see that every player has 42 on his jersey. That can only mean one of two things: my TV is broken or it's Jackie Robinson Day!

Jackie Robinson Day is a fun tradition. And I think it's better that they went all-out and put 42 on everyone's jerseys instead of leaving it as a by-request-only thing. That sets up an "I'm more commemorable of history than thou" kind of dynamic. And while it may seem a bit over-the-top to have #42 on everyone's jerseys for a day, it's just as over the top as retiring #42 on every major league team for the rest of the time.

And it's nice that Baseball's greats are still active and involved enough in the current tradition to be commemorated in a sport-wide ceremony. And to appear on popular branded celebrity-themed reality shows. And also to potentially go to jail for obstruction of justice. Well, it's give and take...

Seeing as how my Goal for this blog this season is to limit my coverage to games (or parts of games) that I happen to see, here are my thoughts on this rematch of last year's ALCS. First on Ivan Nova, the Yankees' rookie starting pitcher. It looks like he has some good movement to that fastball, really cuts back in on right-handed hitters. Looks like he complements that with a decently-biting slider. I don't know if he'll be able to make his living in the AL East with those two pitches, but at the moment, he's all the Yankees got.

He certainly didn't last long against the Rangers: 4.1 innings, 5 runs (reliever David Robertson allowed 1 of his 2 inherited runners to score). I don't know if it's too soon to write off the Yankees, but there would be some poetic justice in seeing a free-agent-gobbling powerhouse with unlimited funds fade into mediocrity for a few seasons, regardless of what it would do to TV ratings.

Meanwhile, in a battle of #4 starters, the Rangers' young lefty Matt Harrison seems to be throwing the ball pretty well. Harrison came over from the Braves (with Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz) in the deal for Mark Teixeira, so it's fun to see these two face each other tonight. (Tex was 0-3 with a K and a GDP against him tonight.) He had failed half-season stints as a starter in 08 and 09, was used primarily out of the bullpen last year, and was left off the Rangers' postseason roster.

Harrison wasn't in the Rangers' projected starting rotation until rather late in the pre-season. But a good spring training line - coupled with injuries to Tommy Hunter and off-season gamble Brandon Webb - put him front and center. And he's performing pretty well, what with his perfect W-L record and WHIP under 1.000 on the season. Also stuffwise: he's changing speeds well, and according to fangraphs, his fastball speed has increased each  year he's been in the majors.

Harrison is one of those young pitchers that are helping to redefine this Rangers organization as one focused as much on good pitching as stacking the lineup with mashers. And his performance tonight solidifies that: 8 innings, 2 runs (one on a Granderson homer), just a 3/3 K/BB ratio, but he induced a franchise record 6 double plays. That's good for 99 swp, for those who care about such things.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the mound, we're seeing the major league debut from 27-year-old rookie Lance Pendleton. After 6 seasons in the minor leagues as a mostly-effective starter, he's finally getting his first tosses in The Show, and he has not disappointed: 3 perfect innings in relief, including 3 strikeouts. I wonder if we'll see him as a rotation filler later in the year if Freddy Garcia continues to struggle or if Phil Hughes spends significant time on the DL with his "dead arm." (Maybe the Yanks should have made the Hughes Rules a little more strict than the Joba Rules...)

So now it's Neftali Feliz to try to close it out, facing... you guessed it: Mark Teixeira, the very man for which he was traded. It's interesting that the entire complement of pitchers used by the Rangers tonight was acquired for this guy, who's now off to an uncharacteristic fast start this year. But a groundout completes the ofer for Texeira.

An A-Rod double gives the Yankees some life (that's at least good for my fantasy team), but Joe Girardi is putting that life in the hands of Eric "Chokey" Chavez, who surprisingly comes through in the clutch with a pinch-hit RBI single! I know a lot has been made of Miguel Tejada's decreased defensive range and inability to play shortstop regularly, but I will always rue the day when Billy Beane let Miggy walk in favor of signing Chokey to a long term deal. I mean, the A's missed out on some pretty impressive numbers that Tejada put up for Baltimore (150 RBI anyone?) before he suffered his power outage.

Now I'm just trying to find something to write about before the game ends, as Posada gets on base with a walk. But Russel J. Martin flies out to end it, finishing out a rather adventurous save (and the first run allowed of the season) for reigning AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz. Good performances from guys like Harrison and Alexi Ogando kept Feliz in the bullpen this year, but I feel like it's just a matter of time until he cracks the starting rotation. Like I always say (because I've heard so many smarter people say it) a pitcher can give his team six times more value if he pitches six times the innings.

That's it from Jackie Robinson Day. See you next time with the NL All-Acquired roster!

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

American League All-Acquired Team 2011

Most of the fun of the baseball off-season is wrapped up in players changing teams for the next season. I did a three-part post chronicling player movement over the off-season, but now that I have my hotly-anticipated Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview in hand - which notes which players on each lineup are newly-acquired - I can see which roles those players will play on their new teams. And using that information, I can compile the best of those players into a fantasy lineup. Here is one such lineup representing the best players newly acquired by American League teams over the '10-11 off-season.




OK, so I got a little carried away and a lineup turned into a full 25-man roster. But this way you get a sense of how this team might play over the course of a full season. Nota Bene: the player rankings are from MLB.com's system and are  current to before the start of the season. Moving from top to bottom and using the cliche'd "compliment sandwich" to evaluate this team seems in order, as their very strong offense and bullpen flank a downright pathetic starting pitching staff.

Boston's big acquisitions lead the way on offense with Baltimore and Texas also looking to field some key players. I've talked a little about picking more versatile players to stock a bench rather than just the most talented hitters - hence the presence of David DeJesus, who can play all three outfield spots well, over a guy like Johnny Damon (ranked 299) who will likely be limited to DH/LF duties for the Rays (especially now that Manny has essentially been dishonorably discharged). However, in the case of Guerrero and Reynolds, I was mesmerized by their home run totals and couldn't help but include them in the roster.

I had to revamp the pitching staff due to injuries and ineffectiveness. We would have had higher-ranked pitchers such as Brandon Webb (419), Vin Mazzaro (447) or Rich Harden (507), except those three are either starting the season on the DL or in the minors. I think I'm putting too much stock in those MLB pre-season rankings, but I just like the way their website is designed so much....

Yes I realize that both members of my middle infield are injured. I didn't remove them because a) I think they'll both be back in their respective lineups eventually while it's unclear what role the injured/demoted pitchers will play this year and b) I didn't want to go through the trouble. So there.


I have Soriano as the closer because he has the best closer-quality stuff. Gregg is ranked significantly higher because he projects to actually record some Saves this year for the Orioles while Soriano will be stuck behind Mo Rivera for the Yankees. It's encouraging that Fuentes has such a relatively high ranking for a setup man... but that's probably because the folks at MLB could see that Andrew Bailey has become a true injury risk.

As followers of my alter-blogging-ego might know, I recently picked up a copy of MLB 11 The Show. Using the game's superior game simulation/roster manipulation skills, I recreated this project, but with a twist: I simply put ALL the acquired players on a single team and let the CPU sort out what would make the best lineup. The results were a bit strange if also a bit predictable.

The starting outfield included Carl Crawford in LF, Vladimir Guerrero in RF, and ... Hideki Matsui in CF! Those of you who didn't see Guerrero try to play in the outfield last World Series should probably avoid the footage, because it was painful. And Matsui can barely man LEFT field, let alone center. I understand the game values hitting over defense (as video games are wont to do), but then why leave Adam Dunn on the bench in favor of ... MANNY RAMIREZ!!?! Granted this was before his retirement, but MLB ranks him 268, a full 234 places below Dunn. Someone somewhere got their signals crossed.

Other than those changes, though, the lineup and rotation (minus the injured pitchers) were pretty similar. I think they had Frank Francisco in there, but, again, minus the injured pitchers. The cool part about using the game, is that I could actually see a cartoony representation of how this team might look and how they might play. Incidentally, in the one simulated game I had the patience to (mostly) sit through (while doing other things), the AL team beat its NL All-Acquired counterpart in a thrilling come-from-behind victory. Next time, I'll go over the National League's squad.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Arrested Development: Stuck in Spring Training

I had a great time at Spring Training in Phoenix. It was great to see some preseason action and to be right next to the players and to be immersed in baseball action for a whole weekend. Then the following week, in Phoenix again, I enjoyed the exhibition game that took me into a new Major League ballpark. But as fun as it was watching the D-Backs beat up on a team from the Mexican League, it's now the first week of April, and I'm ready for some regular season action. The Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview is finally out, and I'm ready for the games to count.

So when my latest travels took me to south Florida and the cab driver said we were close to where the Marlins played, I got extra excited. Could this be two new stadiums for me in as many weeks? We were on a tight schedule, so I had the cabbie swing by the stadium, just to pay my respects. As it turns out, it was where the Marlins play... but only during the Spring. That's right, we were actually close to Roger Dean Stadium, the facility shared by the Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals. Still cool to see the outside of the facility, but again it's not exactly Major League grade. No matter where I turn, it's back to Spring Training!

Other occurrences might signal that I'm not quite ready - emotionally and spiritually - for the season to start. Remember that big "30 Projected Lineups in 30 Days" project that was due to start as soon as the SI baseball preview came out? Well, I picked up the preview issue this Monday, and I have some not insignificant issues with it. First of all, there's that cover story about the Phillies' rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'm totally enamored of the Phillies' rotation, and I think it's cool that Roy Halladay is on the cover two years in a row. But who's idea was it to give them all dumb superhero names and contrived origin stories? I've read Gary Smith's work before, and enjoyed it very much, but Tunnelman? Loose Laser? I couldn't get through all six densely packed pages of it....

Then there's the projected lineups, of which SI is the gold standard, in my opinion. Looking forward to these 30 lists is basically what gets me through the off-season. (Well, that and friends, family, loved ones, and Arkham Asylum.) This year's lineups are well-organized (although they've replaced the one-page story on each team with a broad, sweeping article about each division) and accurate (that's what happens when the issue is released a few days after the start of the season), but I'm a little confused with some of the personnel decisions on who to include.

Many teams are slated to begin the year with one or several key starters on the disabled list for one reason or another. Whether it's Chase Utley's tendinitis or Matt Holliday's appendectomy, some players don't enter the year 100%. I'm confused, though, how SI decides whether to leave the injured player in the projected lineups or remove them in favor of a replacement. In the Sporting News' preview issue, players expected to start the season on the DL were marked with an asterisk. No such luck for SI. Here are some of the contradictions I've found:


INJURED, BUT IN LINEUP

Aforementioned Phillies 2B Chase Utley (knee tendinitis) and RF Domonic Howard (broken hand) still show up in the issue.

Brewers SP Zack Greinke injured his ribs playing basketball.

Athletics CL Andrew Bailey strained his forearm during Spring Training.

Indians CF Grady Sizemore is having knee surgery and is always a question mark to stay healthy.

Dodgers 3B Casey Blake started the season on the DL for a back strain, but he was just activated today.

As stated above, Matt Holliday is having his appendix removed.

Mets LF Jason Bay is out with a muscle strain, Astros SS Clint Barmes broke his left hand, and White Sox DH Adam Dunn is also having his appendix out, but those injuries/procedures occurred after press time.


INJURED, NOT IN LINEUP

Cardinals ace SP Adam Wainwright underwent Tommy John surgery and isn't in the magazine, although he doesn't project to play at all in 2011.

Mets ace SP Johan Santana doesn't show up either although he's only on the 15 day DL. (UPDATE: Looks like he's actually having another left shoulder surgery and is out indefinitely. Yikes...)

Blue Jays SP Brandon Morrow is replaced in the mag's rotation by Jo-Jo Reyes, although the projected starter is only out with a forearm strain (see Andrew Bailey).

Tigers veteran 2B Carlos Guillen is out  and replaced in the lineup by Will Rhymes. To name another washed up veteran, Royals C Jason Kendall won't start the season, and is replaced by new acquisition Matt Treanor.

Rangers playoff-worth SP Tommy Hunter has a strained groin and should pitch for most of the season, and yet erstwhile RP Alexi Ogando has his spot in the rotation.

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Due to the inconsistencies in this year's issue, it might be a while before I can start my project, if I don't abandon it altogether in favor of more flexible, far-reaching, and altogether shorter endeavors. One will definitely be an All-Acquired team for each league (followed by a piece about how that team plays on MLB 11: The Show, which I've been itching to buy ever since I learned it came out almost a month ago...) and something chronicling the game's top 50 prospects.

Until then, the silver lining is that my flight back to LA has seat-back TVs, so I'll be able to catch most of the Twins/Yankees game on ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball. Maybe that will be enough to launch me into the throes of regular season awesomeness.