Top 50 Prospects

One of the most exciting aspects for the more forward-thinking fans of professional sports is analyzing who has the best chance to become the stars of tomorrow. Some of us are content to gape in awe at today's All-Stars and league leaders and admire their amazing talent and the impressive numbers they put on the board in the present. But, as the Roman Emperors knew all too well, glory is fleeting, and today's franchise players are tomorrow's journeymen, and it's always nice to keep an eye on those who will take up their mantle.

With that in mind, I'm going to take a look at MLB's list of Top 50 Prospects heading into the 2011 season. And, since we all have a short attention span, I'm going to focus my look on those players likely to spend significant time in the majors in 2011. To do this, I will look at the 2010 Top 50 list (that's as far back as my research goes) and try to determine some patterns.

21 of the Top 50 prospects in 2010 spent significant time at the Major League level last year. 11 of those 21 spent some time at AAA in 2009, the last year contributing to their ranking. 9 of the remaining 10 peaked at AA. And 1 special pitcher made it to The Show without even one full year in the minors. Bonus points if you can name that pitcher. I'll give you a hint: he's not on the Top 50 list for 2011, as he will likely miss the entire year following right elbow surgery. That's right, not one of the Top 50 2010 jumped directly from any level of class A to the majors.

Moving ahead to the 2011 list, let's start by looking at holdovers from last year. There are 21 members on the '11 list who also made an appearance on the '10 list. Since my research only goes back a year, I can't be certain as to how making an appearance on two lists in a row affects chances of success in the Majors. But thinking it through logically, it shouldn't bode well. Prospects are only valuable insofar as they quickly graduate from prospecthood into Major League playerness. The longer someone remains a prospect, the less chances he has to be part of a Major League team. But on the other hand, if someone is twice recognized as a top prospect, shouldn't that be a clear sign that the talent is there? We'll just have to wait until 2012 to find out.

Looking back at my observation about Class A ballplayers, there are 14 players on the 2011 list who peaked at Class A or lower. I would say that we could rule these guys out immediately, except that 3 of these guys are among the 21 holdovers from last year. We'll have to see how these two interplaying statuses affect their chances of reaching the big leagues.

10 players on the 2011 list spent at least a little time in the Majors in 2010, vs. only 7 players on the 2010 list who reached the bigs in 2009. 6 of the 2010 7 made meaningful contributions to their 2010 clubs. Looking at the 2011 10, I see 8 who were slated to start with their 2011 clubs (according to the all-important Sports Illustrated predictions). Here's the full 10, organized by placement on the 2011 prospect list:

Hellickson and Drabek have settled in as solid starters for their teams. Minor, SI's pick to start the season as the Braves' 5th starter, appeared in just one game before losing the job to Brandon Beachy (who has been absolutely lights out). Chapman and Sale have been languishing in the non-Save-earning depths of their respective bullpens - the former dazzling and the latter struggling.

Domonic Brown would have started the season for the Phillies had he not broke his hand. Desmond Jennings had a more uncertain role - the Rays' acquisitions of Johnny Damon made the baseball world question whether the highly touted outfield prospect was as ready for action as we all thought he was. Freeman is barely holding onto the starting job in Atlanta and Arencibia is slugging pretty well for a Catcher, which plays right into Toronto's game plan. And Alonso is blocked at First Base by a dude better known as the NL MVP last year. He and Brown are the only two members on this list without any time in the Majors in '11.

Of the remaining 40 players on the list - all with no major league experience - only 3 saw playing time in April: Michael Pineda (SP, SEA), Zach Britton (SP, BAL), and Brandon Belt (1B, SF). ALL of those 3 were first timers on the list. To attempt to put that number in perspective: out of those 10 players charted above, 5 were first-timers on the list in '11. Keep in mind, though that we've only just passed the first half of the first third of the season, so a lot of these guys will still make it to The Show before we wrap up the playoffs.

I hope that sufficiently breaks down at least some of the more familiar names on the list. I would expect even casual fans to have heard of the likes of #1 ranked Mike Trout, fierce phenom Bryce Harper, and sure-to-be-fast-tracked-to-the-majorsDustin Ackley, but the rest of those minor league guys likely won't reach prominence until they're called up for the first time. Until then, we can only wait, watch the list, and think about the future...