Trades! - Cliff Lee!

I was just on my way to wrap up my series about the All-Star rosters until I caught wind of the very first megadeal of the season: Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee goes to the Rangers for prospects and cash. This trade bolsters Texas's rotation for their hopeful playoff push and restocks the Mariners' farm system with prospects, while also keeping (arguably) the best left-handed starter in the game away from the superpowers (i.e. Yankees or Red Sox) or the lovable hopefulls (i.e. Dodgers or Rays).

There are a number of things to look at when evaluating a big deal like this.

No. 1 - Who Is Involved?

Who exactly is Cliff Lee, and how well is he doing this year. Maybe you'll remember when he won the Cy Young award in 2008 for the Indians. You might recall his name as the key player in a dramatic deadline to deal that sent him to the Phillies last year. Or you might remember him by his stellar performance in the 2009 Post-Season, where he won all four of his starts, including two in the World Series against the Yankees. Or maybe you remember hearing the name in mid-December, when he was sent to the Mariners in the trade that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Or perhaps you've heard of his genuinely stupid 14.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio (89-6: the major league record is 11.00).

So yeah, the Rangers are getting a pretty formidable weapon. Perhaps even the AL's starter for the 2010 All-Star Game. The Rangers are also getting serviceable reliever Mark Lowe, who was good last year, but made just 11 appearances in 2010 before undergoing back surgery. And some cash - but more on that later.

2. Where Is He Going?

The Rangers are currently tops in the AL West with the 3rd best record in the league. He joins a rotation made up of two solid veterans with storied pasts (Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson), a struggling former ace (Scott Feldman), and a hot young prospect (Tommy Hunter) taking over for an injured always-hopeful (Rich Harden). Four solid slots. The fifth starter spot has thus far been filled with ragtags (Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Dustin Nippert, and Omar Beltre).

Lee's arrival makes him the de facto ace. Behind him are C.J. Wilson, who was the team's closer just nine short months ago, and Colby Lewis, fresh off his re-introduction to America from two successful years in Japan. Feldman won 17 games last year, but has struggled to the tune of a 5.51 ERA this year. Rich Harden was even worse when he was healthy (5.68 ERA, 1.677 WHIP), and it was the stellar play of his replacement - 23-year-old Tommy Hunter (2.34 ERA supporting his 5-0 record) - that has kept the Rangers in the hunt.

As you can see, Lee gives the Rangers five solid starting pitchers who can take the mound every five days, four of whom look to have above-average talent. Pretty formidable indeed.

3. What Was the Cost of Acquiring Him?

The Rangers gave up three players to get Lee. They shipped away their erstwhile starting first baseman Justin Smoak, a first-round draft pick from 2008. In this, his first year in the majors, Smoak hasn't been able to get in the groove (.670 OPS, more than 200 points less than his .872 career mark in the minors over 135 games).

21-year-old Blake Beavan, a first-round draft pick from 2007, has racked up a 10-5 record and a 2.78 ERA in 17 AA starts this year. Josh Lueke, a 25-year-old reliever, has torn up A ball, but has come down to earth in AA. Matt Lawson has been taking up space at second base in AA. Basically two players with potential, two less so.

4. What's Up With That Cash?

The Rangers are currently bankrupt, and are in the process of finding a new owner. In the interim, they are owned by the league - a joint committee of representatives from the 13 other teams. The Mariners are sending $2.25 million to help pay for the $4 million owed to Lee. But that extra $1.5 million taken on by the Rangers (while that same amount is nothing more than rounding error for what the Yankees pay Alex Rodriguez alone) might be a snag in the eyes of the bankruptcy court.

If that's the case, we could have a situation similar to what Montreal went through when they traded for Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd in 2002. Those deals - the first of which, oddly enough involved Cliff Lee going from the Expos to the Indians - saw the bankrupt and ownerless Expos take on significant portions of Colon's and Floyd's salaries - $4.9 million and $6.5 million respectively. The league nixed the excessive spending, despite the team's playoff hopes, and all but forced them to spin Floyd off to the significantly more financially secure Red Sox after just 15 games in Montreal.

A similar scenario is unlikely, given the Rangers' solid spot in the standings and the relatively small amount of debt changing hands - even in a recession, $1.5 million is not a lot for baseball team owners.

5. Predictions

This deal definitely bolsters the Rangers rotation against any attacks from the defending champion Angels, who seem to have a near-magical knack for scoring runs against all odds. I hope it does: it's time for some new blood atop the AL West Even if it can't be green and gold, anyone is better than that Anaheim scum...

All-Stars: NL Player Ballot

Without further ado: Here are the players chosen by the players to appear on the National League's All-Star squad:

NL Player Ballot: BATTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
C	Brian McCann	768	11.5	ATL	2.5
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	1,099	14.3	SD	3.6
2B	Martin Prado	1,060	13.6	ATL	2.2
SS	Troy Tulowitzki*	917	14.8	COL	2.5
	Jose Reyes	1,036	14.2	NYM	1.0
3B	Scott Rolen	1,046	14.7	STL	2.5
OF	Corey Hart	1,094	15.6	MIL	2.5
OF	Matt Holliday	1,036	13.6	STL	2.6
OF	Marlon Byrd	940	12.2	CHC	1.7

McCann is a good pick, as he leads NL catchers in both OPS and WAR. Prado will start in place of the injured Chase Utley - which actually works out in terms of the numbers, as Prado's OPS is 25 points higher than Utley's (the two are tied in terms of WAR). The shortstop choice vindicates me once again: Tulowitzki received the most votes at the position (who's incidentally worth half a win more than starter Hanley Ramirez), but he'll be replaced because of injury.

Rolen and Ryan Zimmerman (another FINAL VOTE candidate) are neck and neck in terms of performance, but Rolen gets the edge in voting because he has shown somewhat of a career resurgence (see also the presence of Corey Hart and Marlon Byrd, the latter of which seems to be getting some retroactive credit for his great 2009 in Texas).

If Jason Heyward isn't able to play because of injury, his replacement in the lineup will likely come from this group. Byrd seems the most apt choice, roster-wise, because of his ability to play center field (the other two starters are corner guys Ryan Braun and Andre Ethier). But He's currently being beaten in the balloting by two superior (offensive) players. We'll see what happens.

The most notable snub here is NL OPS leader Joey Votto, but he's all but assured a spot through the FINAL VOTE proceedings. But plenty of experts have already written about snubs, so I'll leave the subject (at least until later).

NL Player Ballot: PITCHERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	1,561	97.6	COL	4.2
	Roy Halladay	1,371	80.6	PHI	4.2
	Josh Johnson	1,396	87.3	FLA	4.5
	Tim Lincecum	1,086	67.9	SF	2.2
	Adam Wainwright	1,427	83.9	STL	3.7
RP	Matt Capps	845	23.5	WAS	0.2
	Brian Wilson	1,015	32.7	SF	1.7
	Jonathan Broxton	962	28.3	LAD	1.5

If the NL has ever had a chance of overcoming its 12-year winless streak, it has to be this year because of the unbelievable selection of pitchers. Even after falling back to earth somewhat, Ubaldo Jimenez is still having an unreal (read: unsustainable?) year. Not only has Halladay thrown a perfect game (like Dallas Braden) but he has also managed to win a game since then (unlike Dallas Braden). Josh Johnson might be the best pitcher in the league (he is according to ERA and WAR). Lincecum is scary, even if he's not performing up to his career standards. And Wainwright is his characteristic awesome self.

The relievers constitute a group of unexpected success stories (Capps) and absolute badasses (MMA enthusiast Brian Wilson & 6'4" 300 lb. Jonathan Broxton). Not bad for one-inning guys in a format where every pitcher is essentially a one-inning guy.

Next post will round out the All-Star teams (Manager's Picks), which will hopefully provide adequate preparation for all you fans seeking a more complete picture of the 2010 Midsummer Classic.

All-Stars: AL Player Ballot

To continue my five-part preview of the 2010 All-Star game, here are the players voted to the AL squad via the player ballot.

Really? The players themselves get to decide which players accompany the fan-voted starters on the All-Star team? I have to plead ignorance regarding how long this has been the case. Judging by Bill Plaschke's whining, it wasn't always this way.

I agree with Bill's problems with the practice: too much of it could be based on reputation rather than talent. I assume that there are restrictions in place preventing players from voting for themselves (to avoid a Pirate King scenario... I can't believe I just linked to that movie, I hated that movie), but there can't be similar restrictions against voting for one's friends/family/or even teammates. But so it goes.

AL Player Ballot: BATTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
C	Victor Martinez*	823	12.5	BOS	1.2
	John Buck	678	10.6	TOR	1.6
1B	Miguel Cabrera	1,385	18.5	DET	3.3
2B	Dustin Pedroia*	1,140	15.6	BOS	3.6
	Ian Kinsler	723	13.4	TEX	1.9
SS	Elvis Andrus	893	12.1	TEX	1.2
3B	Adrian Beltre	1,085	14.3	BOS	3.0
OF	Vernon Wells	1,129	14.5	TOR	1.4
OF	Jose Bautista	1,094	14.0	TOR	1.9
OF	Torii Hunter	1,040	13.9	LAA	2.2
DH	David Ortiz	962	14.8	BOS	1.6

The (*) symbol denotes a player who will not be able to participate due to injury. The player directly below him is his replacement.

(Also, I apologize if the formatting of the charts isn't quite as uniform as I'd like it (weird underlining or different fonts/sizes). If you're a purist, usually opening the individual post on its own will solve the problem.)

The first thing I noticed about the ballot is the absence of Kurt Suzuki, a better/more well-rounded catcher than Buck. But I guess the players love a good lots-of-power-out-of-nowhere story (also see Jose Bautista with his league-leading 20 home runs at the halfway point, already a career high).

Cabrera at first might end up having the highest swp of any All-Star, but it's likely his defense that gives him a lower WAR than starting first baseman Justin Morneau. I can't help but feel vindicated by the presence of Elvis Andrus, my choice for starting shortstop.

It's a shame that both the player ballot and the fan ballot include spaces for dedicated DH's. Not that the Joe Girardi will have any danger of running out of players with a roster of 34, but of those 34, two can't play in the field at all, and two more can't play beyond first base. I guess we can expect lots of pinch hits.

AL Player Ballot: PITCHERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
SP	David Price	1,142	76.1	TB	2.7
	Clay Buchholz	977	65.1	BOS	2.6
	Jon Lester	1,193	74.6	BOS	3.5
	Phil Hughes	958	68.4	NYY	1.1
	Cliff Lee	1,134	94.5	SEA	2.9
RP	Neftali Feliz	996	28.5	TEX	1.1
	Mariano Rivera	952	32.8	NYY	1.7
	Jose Valverde	1,021	30.0	DET	1.7

I'll show you the numbers for the NL pitchers next time, but I'll give you a spoiler: the AL just doesn't have as scary a combo as Halladay, Lincecum, Josh Johnson, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Lee has been awesome, but in roughly 2/3 of the starts as his counterparts. Otherwise, I see four stellar pitchers, but not one lights-out, unreal, season-on-the-line ace type. But maybe I just lack the imagination of the players.

I was surprised at Phil Hughes's low WAR, since the general reaction to his season has been amazement. But I was not so surprised at the low WARs of the relievers. It's like guru-Neyer always says: a pitcher who throws 60-70 innings, however dominant, won't help your team as much as a pitcher who throws 180-200 innings.

You'll notice their inflated swp, but that's because saves are totally and completely overrated (30 swp per save - the same as wins, which are also totally overrated!). But that's where the stars come out: at the end of the game, in close situations.

All-Stars: The FINAL VOTE

As promised, I will now evaluate the All-Stars (and potential All-Stars) who were not voted as starters by the fans. I decided to start with the ten FINAL VOTE candidates (five from each league), even though none of them have officially made the team, because their situations are the most urgent - voting ends on Thursday. And in an effort to make a more informed voting decision myself, I figure I would post my decision-making process for posterity.

AL FINAL VOTE Candidates

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
1B	Paul Konerko	1,122	15.8	CHW	2.6
OF	Nick Swisher	994	13.8	NYY	2.3
OF	Delmon Young	836	11.8	MIN	0.5
3B	Michael Young	1,150	14.9	TEX	2.1
1B	Kevin Youkilis	1,244	16.6	BOS	3.3

By the numbers - both sabermetric and outdated-fantasy style - Youkilis is the obvious choice. The only problem is that the roster already includes two first basemen, and might be better served with a batter with more versatility. But with 34 roster spots and a DH slot available, I'd 100% go with the most productive offensive player.


NL FINAL VOTE Candidates

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
RP	Heath Bell	1,039	31.5	SD	1.2
OF	Carlos Gonzalez	1,005	15.0	COL	1.4
1B	Joey Votto	1,242	17.0	CIN	3.2
RP	Billy Wagner	1,052	32.9	ATL	1.4
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	924	13.0	WAS	2.2

Again, the most productive player on the list is Votto, another first baseman. Notable here is the inclusion of two relief pitchers, where the AL list had none. Bell and Wagner have both been having amazing seasons - certainly more impressive statistically than setup men Arthur Rhodes and Evan Meek. But on a roster that already includes five relievers and almost twice as many starters, is another short term arm really necessary?

YOU DECIDE!

ALL-STARS: Fan-Voted Starters

So it's official: the 2010 All-Star Game starters have been announced! Not just the starters, but the reserves as well! Everyone but the FINAL VOTE, on which the fans get to vote until Thursday. I've got some other projects in the fire, so I'll just run down the fan-selected starters, including their first-half swp.

Just to clarify, the first half of the season runs from the beginning of April till the end of June - exactly three months, as the baseball season ends in September (or sometimes the first days of October). This is also, coincidentally, the date All-Star voting ends.

AL STARTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team
C	Joe Mauer	801	12.7	MIN
1B	Justin Morneau	1,246	16.6	MIN
2B	Robinson Cano	1,271	16.5	NYY
SS	Derek Jeter	979	13.1	NYY
3B	Evan Longoria	1,186	15.6	TB
OF	Ichiro Suzuki	951	12.4	SEA
OF	Josh Hamilton	1,327	18.4	TEX
OF	Carl Crawford	1,238	16.7	TB
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	1,280	17.5	TEX

As you can see, six of my nine picks made the team. Re: those who didn't: You know my feeling about Jeter, but at least Elvis Andrus will be on the team via the Player's Ballot. I somehow completely overlooked Josh Hamilton, who leads all All-Stars in swp - he probably would have gotten my vote. Carl Crawford is obviously a deserving candidate.


NL STARTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team
C	Yadier Molina	492	7.1	STL
1B	Albert Pujols	1,288	16.7	STL
2B	Chase Utley	999	13.9	PHI
SS	Hanley Ramirez	1,178	15.5	FLA
3B	David Wright	1,233	16.0	NYM
OF	Ryan Braun	1,155	15.2	MIL
OF	Andre Ethier	939	15.7	LAD
OF	Jason Heyward	912	12.8	ATL

6 for 8 on these, if you count my original votes - 7 for 8 if you count my second round when I substituted Wright for Ryan Zimmerman at third base. (Zimmerman is included as one of the NL's five FINAL VOTE, so he might well get the chance to represent.) Yadier Molina is a mystifying pick - he's known for his prowess in the field (9 runs above average this year), but he's totally anemic with the stick (.616 OPS). A little one-sided for an All-Star, in my opinion. But NL catchers were kind of weak this year, and Molina's a fan favorite from a big market.

Utley, who won't be able to play, as he's recovering from thumb surgery, will be replaced by Martin Prado, the top vote-getter at second base in the fan balloting. Heyward is questionable (also having thumb troubles), but his replacement is yet to be determined.

I'll cover the various levels of reserves in the days to come (player ballots, manager's picks, and FINAL VOTE spots). For now, happy fourth and enjoy the All-Star hype. Oh, yeah, and I'll be there in person to enjoy all the festivities. Just to gush for a quick second.

Trades!

Well, it's July. And with the trading deadline less than a month away, we're about to see a flurry of moves from clubs looking to a) improve their playoff chances, b) shed unnecessary roster pieces, or c) stock up with prospects for the future.

The first of these moves came yesterday, as the SF Giants shipped lumbering catcher Bengie Molina to the TEX Rangers. There have of course been some lower profile moves earlier in the season, but yesterday's trade involved the teams with the best chance of making the playoffs and the player(s) with the most chance of playing a significant role. Here's the story behind the move.

The Rangers were supposed to be set behind the plate, but when backstops Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden were both sent down to Triple-A, the Rangers were forced to name perennial backup Matt Treanor their starting catcher. Aside from fulfilling the American Dream of being married to an Olympic Women's Beach Volleyball Champion, Treanor doesn't have a very impressive resume.

After Bengie Molina's contract with the Giants expired last winter, he spent most of the off-season looking for a job. Some thought he would be a perfect fit on the Mets, until they ended up signing Rod Barajas. Suffice it to say, nobody foresaw him returning to the Giants on a one-year $4.5 million contract; not with top catching prospect Buster Posey on the fast track to the majors.

But return he did, and play poorly he also did: in his 61 games behind the plate for the Giants, he was worth roughly half a win less than an average replacement catcher. Nevertheless, the Rangers must have been attracted to his "veteran presence." Not that they gave up much to get him - Chris Ray has been a decent reliever on a team full of better ones, and Michael Main is an unheralded starting pitching prospect who hasn't pitched above Class-A.

Will Molina's bat heat up in pitcher-friendly Arlington? Or will the switch to the American League negate any potential upturn? Will the slowest baserunner in the game gum up the works behind speedsters Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon? Or will he fall into line with former Angels teammate Vladimir Guerrero and have a similar career resurgence in Texas? Only time will tell!

NL All-Stars: this one's worth at least a nickel

I did some more work on the analysis of these votes. Unfortunately, I didn't do said work until after I cast my first 25 votes. Even though I gave some dudes some undeserved recognition, it was a learning experience for me - I learned a lot more about traditional vs. meaningful statistics by evaluating these players two different ways than I could have by taking an online course.

For the first round, I used the MLB.com All-Star voting helper, which lists all the players from each position in a sortable chart. You can sort by At-Bats, AVG, HR, RBI, and SB. Keep that in mind when I say who I voted for.

For the next round of analysis, I delved a little deeper: all 3 "slash stats" (AVG/OBP/SLG), OPS, HR/RBI, BB/K, SB-CS, WAR (wins above replacement), and fielding runs above average. This is a good mix of mainstream and newfangled stats that covers pretty much all bases (offensive production, basepath prowess, and defensive skills).

Here's what I found:

NL 1B: Albert Pujols
Is there really any other alternative? Well, yes, actually. Adrian Gonzalez, while none of his at-the-plate (.978 to .908 OPS) or on-the-bases (6 to 0 SB) stats measure up, the Padres slugger plays good enough defense to outfield Phat Albert by 7 runs above average (+6 to -1). What does defense really matter? you might ask. Well, according to WAR, it makes a great deal of difference: Gonzalez currently has a 2.8 WAR with Pujols at 2.3 WAR. Pujols is a beast though; I stand by my choice.

NL 2B: Chase Utley
He's been caught stealing this year, for the first time since 2008. He doesn't blow his competition away in terms of power (.478 SLG to Dan Uggla's .505 and Kelly Johnson's absurd .550), or walks (they're all three hovering in the low 30s) - but in the middle of June, he's already got at least 20 fewer strikeouts than those other two. He's also 8 runs better in the field (+5 to -3 for both other guys). Total package: he's a good pick.

NL SS: Hanley Ramirez
If I had this vote to do over again, I would have absolutely picked Troy Tulowitzki. Even looking at the traditional stats, it was pretty much a toss-up. But when you factor in SLG (.493 to .473) and defense (+5 to -5; both stats in favor of Tulo), it's no contest. Oh, if I could turn back time...

NL 3B: Ryan Zimmerman
He's head and shoulders ahead of everyone else as far as I'm concerned. OPS over 1, just about as many walks as strikeouts (which makes for a .416 OBP, .45 points higher than his best competitor Scott Rolen). Rolen does beat the Z-Man in terms of SLG (.613 to .594), but Zimmerman gets bonus points for playing on the same team with Stephen Strasburg. So there.

NL C: Rod Barajas
Of all the choices I made in the first round of voting, this is the one I regret the most. Looking back, I can pinpoint two reasons for making this choice: home runs (there was just something so tantalizing about a catcher with double digit home runs (11) before the break) and Rob Neyer. The catcher for whom I should have voted - Miguel Olivo - plays for the Rockies. He had started the season barely ahead of Chris Iannetta on the depth chart, but with the general understanding Iannetta's a better player and that he would surely take over when he got his sea-legs back. This caused the sabermetric community to frame Olivo's situation as somewhat of a pretender to the throne.
I didn't want to honor someone like that with an All-Star spot. But look at the numbers, offensive and defensive: an OPS .140 points higher than Barajas (.944 to .803), and a difference of 9 fielding runs (+7 to -2). WAR backs up this new analysis: 2.1 to 0.8 in favor of Olivo. Never again...

NL OF: Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun
Even though the ballot lets you select three general outfielders, I usually like to try to pick one from each position. This year I didn't do that, plain and simple. Ethier was an easy pick, as he leads all outfielders in HR, even after missing significant time with a broken finger. His defense is a little suspect (-6), but his league-leading OPS (1.088) more than makes up for it.
I voted for Jason Heyward because I was enamored of his .400 OBP - .20 points higher than any other outfielder except Ethier (.422) - and his .510 SLG - surpassed only by Alfonso Soriano (.550), Jayson Werth (.552) and Ethier (.667!).
After Barajas and Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun's my pick that mystifies the most. I was looking too much at his AVG (.306) and his steals (11-0!) and not enough at his OPS (.859) or his defense (-9!). What can I say? I like players who hit for power and steal bases with high regularity (see my vote for Alex Rios).

Here's who else I considered:
Jayson Werth (mentioned above) has knocked the cover off the ball (10 HR, .552 SLG) and played an average right field (0 runs above average... but also 0 below). Matt Kemp has a lot of home runs (most of which he got early, so they're considerably less impressive now), but he's on-base less than 34% of the time (.338), he fields below average in center field (-4), and he's caught stealing as much as he's successful (9-9). Andrew McCutchen doesn't have high production stats (7 HR, 17 RBI), but that's mostly due to batting leadoff and playing for the Pirates. But look at the other facets of his game: 14-4 stolen base record and an astounding 13 fielding runs above average! Michael Bourn was in contention solely because of his speed and defense: 20-6 SB-CS and 11 fielding runs above average. He's what they call a "two-tool player."

If you've been paying attention to the patterns, you might notice that Wins Above Replacement (WAR) favors a good defender more than a fast guy (high SB) or a guy who has a talent for getting his bat on the ball (high AVG). With that in mind, here's how my contenders ranked in terms of WAR (an * represents those players for whom I cast my votes):

2.3 - Andrew McCutchen
1.9 - *Andre Ethier
1.9 - *Jayson Werth
1.9 - Michael Bourn
1.7 - Jason Heyward
0.9 - Matt Kemp
0.8 - *Ryan Braun

I'm really sad that I may have slighted a great all-around player like McCutchen, just as he was slighted last year in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I promise to make it up to him next time around.

AL All-Stars: My Two Cents

This week was all about the young kids: two high-profile prospects had their major league debuts, one decidedly more impressive than the other. Meanwhile the amateur draft is ongoing, with third round action taking place today. (There's a cool reminder on MLB.com urging people to keep watching by listing all the functional major leaguers who were drafted after the 30th round. Spoiler alert: there aren't many.)

But before I talk about the future stars, I want to take a moment to focus on the current stars.

A few weeks ago I started evaluating All-Star candidates from all the divisions. After getting one-third of the way through, I abandoned the project, due mainly to boredom and an increasingly busy work schedule. But luckily I've decided to revisit the 2010 All-Star game on a slightly more manageable scale: by voting!

Last week I did my part and voted 25 times for the players I deemed most worthy to represent their clubs in the midsummer classic. Once some of the statistics solidify, I plan on voting 25 more times from a second personal email, then 25 additional times from my work email, and 25 times apiece for whatever other email addresses I can scrounge up. It's not that I have particularly strong opinions about All-Star hitters (cuz fans don't vote on pitchers, they're selected by the managers) - I just like to know that I'm getting my voice heard.

So without further ado, here's my best guess at who should start for the 2010 AL All-Star Team:

AL 1B: Justin Morneau
I picked Morneau above Miguel Cabrera because of his rate stats: not only does he lead all AL first basemen in AVG, he leads the entire AL in OPS (and it's two component stats, OBP and SLG). Cabrera also has an impressive OPS and he's driven in a bunch of runs, but Morneau's got the edge in walks and defense - that's right, we can now measure this kind of stuff midseason! This year Morneau is 8 runs above average, Cabrera is 2 runs below average.

AL 2B: Robinson Cano
This one is pretty much a no-brainer. Leads all second basemen in traditional stats (.370 AVG, 12 HR, 45 RBI), has an OPS above 1, and is playing a pretty good second sack to boot. Not a hard decision to justify.

AL SS: Elvis Andrus
I couldn't vote for Derek Jeter. I just couldn't. The sole reason for that: I don't think he's having a better season than Andrus. Elvis gets on base more (.397 to .349), steals more (18 to 6), hits better (.311 to .299), and fields better (although neither fields particularly well: -1 to -6). Jeter hits more home runs (6 to 0) and has played for longer (15 full seasons to 1). In terms of WAR (wins above replacement - a complicated formula that figures how much better a particular player is than an average Triple-A hitter), they're basically equal: 1.2 for EA, 1.3 for DJ. I stand by my choice, if for no other reason than web gems.

AL 3B: Evan Longoria
Of all hot-cornerers, only Adrian Beltre has a better .AVG, but Longo beats the pants off everyone in terms of OPS. He's out-produced his closest competitor (10 HR, 46 RBI to A-Rod's 8 and 43), and he's out-ran the field by half (10 SB, Nick Punto has 5 and doesn't bring much of anything else to the table). He's got the total package, and he's got my vote.

AL C: Joe Mauer
I voted for Mauer mainly on the strength of his batting average and his MVP season last year. Not a strong foundation, I know. I thought Jorge Posada might have deserved a spot due to his power bat, but his availability is questionable due to injury (which has also limited his playing time), so I was torn. I also like Kurt Suzuki (despite his on-base inefficiencies) and Victor Martinez (despite his defensive inefficiencies). But despite all this deliberation, Mauer still has the highest WAR of the group (1.8). So sabermetrics backs me up.

AL DH: Vladimir Guerrero
Since the game's in an AL stadium, we get to vote on a starting DH! (But only for the AL team; this might change in future years, as the DH-in-the-All-Star-Game is expanding to all stadiums.) This is another no-contest: David Ortiz and Jose Guillen and Andruw Jones all brought their home run sticks this season, but their peripherals don't compare: he's the only full time DH candidate with a WAR over 1.0.

AL OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios
I like Ichiro's AVG/OBP/SB combo. Even though he's fielding below average, his presence on the basepaths makes him a force to be reckoned with.
Nelson Cruz also as questionable availability due to injury, but I just couldn't resist voting for that monstrous OPS (1.134!). He's also a perfectly average defender, so you don't lose anything there.
Alex Rios won't win a starting spot. He's not a big enough name. But look at that power/speed combo: 12 HR, 18 SB, while playing a perfectly average centerfield, which is a new position for him. Despite his lack or recognition, Rios actually has the highest WAR of all the outfielders I considered in WAR (2.2).

The only outfielder with a higher WAR is Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez (2.6), which is mostly because his defense (9 runs above average) is good enough to offset his anemic bat (.794 OPS)... and because he hasn't yet been caught on the basepaths (7-0 in steals).
Here are the others I considered: Jose Bautista, who somehow leads the majors with 18 HR. He doesn't get his bat on the ball nearly enough (.246 AVG), but he walks a ton (39), and his raw power has earned him a WAR of 2.0.
Vernon Wells, who has found some long-missed power (15 HR, 40 RBI). His defense is still a pretty sorry sight (-8), and his OBP is subpar.
On the other end of the spectrum, Carl Crawford is as good in the field as Wells is bad (8 runs above average). He's got very little power, but he makes up for a lot of that deficit with real good speed.

It's a weird crop of outfielders this year. But I suppose I stand by my choices. If Cruz's return doesn't look promising by the time I get around to voting again, I'll probably replace him with Bautista or Wells.

My picks for NL All-Stars later in the week.

New Manager Watch: Baltimore Orioles

Woo, it's draft day! I'm gonna wait until some of the dust settles for commentary, since I'm not liveblogging. Instead, I'll pick up on a piece of news from a few days ago.

In the midst of an abysmal season, the Baltimore Orioles fired their manager (Dave Trembley) and replaced him with a rookie (Juan Samuel). The problems with the Orioles this year don't have much to do with the way they're managed: new ace Kevin Millwood hasn't won a game (0-6), their first basemen and shortstops have hit a combined zero (0) home runs, and Ty Wigginton is the club's lone offensive producer.

But when a team struggles, one of the classic strategies is to oust the guy in charge rather than enter into a full-on roster overhaul. Which got me thinking about how well the practice has worked out in the past. I did some digging and here's what I came up with.

Since the start of the Wild Card Era (1994), 51 teams have replaced their managers mid-season. The obvious first question is: How well did these teams fare? Of the 49 teams that have played complete seasons (we're not counting the '010 Orioles or Royals, both of whom underwent managerial changes this year), only 12 finished with overall winning records (24.4%). Of those 12, six made it to the playoffs. Of those six, only two have won playoff serieses: the '04 Astros beat the Braves before falling to the Cardinals in the NLCS, and the '03 Marlins took the World Series against the Yankees.

How did the new managers compare to the guys they replaced? 37 out of 49 replacements led their teams to better records than their predecessors, for a pretty impressive 75.5% success rate. Beware of sample size alert here, because I didn't do as dutiful due diligence as I might have. I didn't count the replacements who managed just one or two games before being replaced themselves - six teams of the 49 (12.2%) used three managers in a single season. The Royals have done it twice and counting - 2010 is still relatively young after all.

Who have changed their managers in this way? Four teams have changed managers four times in this span: the Reds, the Royals (and counting), the Astros, and the Blue Jays. Three teams have changed three times: the Brewers, the Mariners, and the Orioles (and counting). The pattern does not continue, with eight teams changing two times - I'm counting the Expos/Nationals as one team for the purposes of this exercise. Nine teams have had one change. I haven't listed them all to avoid just rattling off all the teams.

If you've been doing the math, you'll see that not every team has undergone a mid-season managerial change. The following six teams have been well-managed enough to avoid replacing their skippers on the fly: the Yankees, the Twins, the A's, the Braves, the Padres, and the Giants.

When did these mid-season managerial changes occur? Well, they mostly occurred in 2002, when seven teams changed the man in charge. That's 1/7th of the total changes over the 16 year span I'm measuring. The next most changes-per-year is five (2001). Then six years had four managerial changes ('09, '08, '07, '05, '04, and '96). Two years had three changes, four years had two changes, and one year had one change. Only in 2006 did no teams find it necessary to fire their manager in the middle of the year.*

*When counting the number of managerial changes per year, I'm counting the number of teams that changed their managers rather than the number of actual managerial changes.

Who has been replaced the most? That honor goes to Phil Garner who was unseated three times ('07 Astros, '02 Tigers, and '99 Brewers). Three managers have been replaced twice: Jimy Williams , Buddy Bell, and Bob Boone. Five managers have done double replacement duty: Pete Mackanin, Joe Maddon (both for the Angels), Jim Riggleman, Jerry Narron, and Jack McKeon.

I'm not going to list everyone here, but this is an interesting statistic: there are an astounding 21 managers who have both replaced someone and have been replaced. Some of that is because a guy replaces someone, fills the position for several years, and then is replaced himself (e.g. Clint Hurdle, Dave Trembley). Some of it might be because some people just have a knack for being in the right place at the right time.

What can we learn from all this? Questionable. It's more trivia than evidence for anything. The factors that go into making a team perform well or poorly are so expansive and encompass so much more than just the manager that you can't really pin a dramatic turnaround or collapse on just the man in charge. But it was at least fun for me to sift through the stats to mine some percentage sound-bytes.

Back to Baseball

Wow, it's been a while.

In the days and weeks and month since I've last posted, a lot has happened in the great sport of baseball. Another perfect game (after this one). An absolute gem that would have been the season's third perfect game, were it not for a blown call (the key players have since kissed and made up). A baseball legend has left the show (and not a moment too soon). A future star is on the verge of making it to the show. And a top prospect is just days away from making his first splash.

I've also attended two games (this one here and that one there) that I haven't had a chance to write about. But I've been so frazzled and busy with other things that I haven't even had time to vote on the All-Star game. I couldn't even tell you who's in first place across the divisions.

I don't have much to say here now. I just want to acknowledge the news, put some words up here and hope that posts will beget posts.

So in conclusion, loyal readers, keep watching for my contributions to the blogosphere, but don't hold your collective breaths.