Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Astrology Baseball 2019 Playoff Recap

When I went back through my 2019 Baseball Database to calculate the top-scoring roster of the Taurus Bulls, I also did the same for the other eleven signs, because... we're in quarantine and why not? I then totaled up the fantasy points for each team's lineup for the sake of comparison. (For our purposes, a lineup includes 17 players total: five starting pitchers, three relievers, eight position players, and a designated hitter.) As it happens, Taurus scored the lowest aggregate point total of any sign; although to be fair, 2019 had the smallest range between the top- and bottom-scoring teams in the last two decades. Check out the chart below to see the full fantasy astrology landscape from 2019.


As you can see, along with each sign's 2019 point totals, I've included their polarity, element, and quality, which are different ways to divide the signs up into divisions, depending on your simulation method. For a traditional head-to-head fantasy league, I find it easiest to just make four divisions based on the elements. But when you're running a simulation using a video game, and have to connect each sign to a real-life team, the best option is to use the three qualities, to link up with the East/Central/West divisional alignment. The Positive/Negative polarity divide works with either format, separating all the signs into two six-team "leagues."

As far as what actually happened last year, Virgo ended up winning the fantasy championship over Leo. I also ran a simulation using MLB The Show 19, where Aries ended up victorious over Taurus, so as you can see, overall point totals are not a good predictor of who will eventually come out on top over the course of a season. Winning a league championship requires a great deal of good timing: avoiding injuries, receiving favorable matchups, and having the right players get hot at the right times. Simply adding up all the points scored by all the players on a particular team doesn't tell nearly the whole story. But it is a good starting point for looking back on past fantasy astrology seasons.


In a fantasy league setting, where the top team in each division makes the final tournament, we would be looking at a bracket like the one above. That is, in fact, exactly how things turned out in the actual league, despite the fact that it was set up for weekly head-to-head matchups. Actually, it's not EXACTLY how it turned out: ESPN's fantasy baseball client swapped the matchups, since they generate the bracket based on win-loss record rather than leagues. Speaking of win-loss records, I also included each sign's to show you how things stacked up. So, just like using the point-total-only method, some of the top teams are left out of the final shuffle: Sagittarius and Gemini both also finished 13-8, but SAG finished two games behind LEO, while GEM was awarded a mystery tie-breaker against LIB... and BOTH finished above Cancer, which was just two games ahead of their closest divisional rival Pisces (9-12).


The Leo Lions, the top overall scoring sign of 2019, achieved their greatness because of, who I like to call the Three M's: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, and J.D. Martinez. You could add more, like sturdy veteran starter Madison Bumgarner, graduating rookie Mike Soroka, and barely-missed qualifying middle infielder Adalberto Mondesi. But the latter three lags the top three in both point-scoring potential (6,980 points to 5,180) and star power (3 MVP's, 3 CYA's, 9 Silver Sluggers and 18 All-Star appearances for the top three, versus just 2 Silver Sluggers (both MadBum's) and 5 ASG's).


I know assuming that overall point totals correlates to win-loss record is patently false... but let's do it anyway, for the sake of predicting what a projected playoff bracket would look like in a simulation based on the current MLB postseason structure. With the current one-game Wild Card play-in situation, only one team from each league gets left out of the festivities: sorry Aquarius and Tarurus, maybe next year.


In this configuration, both the Leo Lions (see above) and the Cancer Crabs would get first round byes. Believe it or not, there is a tragic connection between these two teams: one of Mike Trout's best friends was the late Tyler Skaggs, who died unexpectedly last year. (Trout is actually seen wearing Skaggs's jersey #45 in one of his full size feature pics in Lindy's 2020 preview magazine.) The incredible thing is that before his Skaggs passed away, he accrued enough fantasy points to make one final appearance in the CAN rotation. He is a tremendous talent, who will continue to be missed across the game.

Looking at the numbers, Cancer only beat Pisces by a handful of points. Diving deeper, I can tell you that wouldn't have happened if I didn't play fast and loose with positional eligibility rules in the above lineup. As constructed, the Crabs infield from first to third would be DJ LeMahieu, Trea Turner (because he's played there before, even though he didn't qualify - and also any shortstop COULD technically play second base), Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez. If you're a stickler for second base eligibility, Turner and Lemahieu would both shift to their right, Cody Bellinger would come IN from the outfield, and Ramon Laureano would take his place in center field. This would result in a net loss of about 480 points, and rocket Pisces into the points lead of the Negative League.


Obviously the name that jumps out is defending (and two-time) Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, just because of his rare milestone of eclipsing 3,000 fantasy points in a season. The fact that he's followed by three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw makes this an even more devastating rotation. (Also, think back to 2018 when Luis Severino was healthy, and you begin to see the true potential here.) I've talked enough about how I mistakenly classified Brad Hand as an Aries for years... so instead, I'll mention the line of four 2,000-point scoring outfielders in a row in the middle of their lineup. While it doesn't approach the tragedy of Skaggs, it's worth mentioning that Trey Mancini is currently recovering from surgery to remove a malignant growth, so I'd like to extend my best wishes to him and his family.


So that's what the Fantasy Astrology Playoffs in 2019 would have looked like, if they were determined by fantasy point totals alone. I don't have my copy of MLB The Show 19 anymore. (I sadly traded it to GameStop for credit towards the new one... which I couldn't even collect because of the coronavirus...) But if anyone can recommend some good simulation software, I would be interested in plugging these numbers in and seeing what happens!

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