Aries - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

A few days ago, the Karmic Wheel began a new rotation as the sun entered Aries. This is of course the sign under which are born the members of the Aries Rams Fantasy Astrology team. I previewed  the last two signs with projected rosters of my upcoming Fantasy Astrology League (courtesy of ESPN), which are now all done; but two major things happened since then. First, the delay of the 2020 MLB season due to COVID-19, rendering said fantasy league irrelevant in the near future. Second, the release of the newest entrant in the MLB The Show franchise, allowing me to create fantasy astrology simulations with in-game lineups. What follows is an Aries-centered comparison of the player RANKING system developed by MLB.com (i.e. 1st is best, etc), and the player RATING system used by the video game's algorithm (on a 1 to 100 scale).

Aries is represented by the Phillies, mostly because of the uniforms' red color scheme.

First, the unquestioned top end. There are only four players who receive a 99 overall rating in MLB The Show 2020: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Nolan Arenado, the latter of which is the Aries third baseman. (Two of those are Leos, but that's a post for August, when we'll HOPEFULLy have some actual baseball going on.) Arenado is ranked in MLB's top 10, along with the player who is #2 on the Rams depth chart, Alex Bregman. Thankfully, Bregman and his 95 rating are also eligible at shortstop, due to Carlos Correa's frequent injuries. Matt Olson has proved himself a powerhouse on both sides of the ball, and the fact that he plays a great first base makes it even more palatable for switch-hitting Carlos Santana to occupy the DH slot. David Dahl is developing into a very solid player anywhere in the outfield, but Lorenzo Cain is the best choice to roam center field. He may even be more valuable in the game setting, where his fabulous defense counts for something.

Now to the discrepancies between the game and the fantasy rankings. Jeff McNeil carries an 89 rating into the game, making him the top option to handle second base. His ranking of 77 also affords him that honor, but given his ability to play all over the diamond, McNeil's better suited shoring up an outfield that is weak beyond the Dahl/Cain duo. This is especially true when you consider former top prospect Cavan Biggio is ranked 94 by MLB.com, so you would want that configuration to maximize a lineup with the best-ranked players (actually HIGHEST-ranked in terms of quality, but lowest sum of of ranked players). But either MLB.com is overrating young former prospects, or the game is underrating them, because Biggio has to settle for a 75 overall rating. We see a similar situation behind the plate: Buster Posey was undoubtedly one of the best catchers of the last decade, which is reflected in his 83 overall game rating. Such high marks certainly aren't reflected by Posely's 2019 production (a meager average of 7.7 points per game), which helped him fall all the way to 303 in the rankings. Much higher (at 102) is Dodgers catcher Will Smith (not to be confused with the Braves (Cancer) reliever of the same name), and he's not that far behind Posey, with a 79 rating... but he technically wouldn't win the backup catcher's job due to Tom Murphy's 82 and Mike Zunino's 81. (To be fair, if this were a real-life situation where a manager REALLY trusts Posey, you'd want Smith to get regular reps in Triple-A.

I actually did some in-depth calculations to link astrology signs to real life teams. You can read about it here:
https://thoughtsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/11/astrology-signs-to-mlb-teams.html

One thing that makes a simulation simpler than a real-world-reflecting fantasy league is the lack of injuries... at least to start the season. Red Sox ace lefty Chris Sale is rated 93 in the game, even though his ranking had been plummeting: down to 144 when play was suspended on March 10 (Pisces season). This was due due to an arm problem that led to Tommy John surgery, wiping out any of Sale's potential 2020 campaign. Another former top Aries pitcher had a lost 2019 season, as two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber - whose 87 ranking almost exactly mirrors his 88 rating - is newly recovered from a broken pitching arm. Even though that was injury was the result of a comebacker hit to the mound, that reminds me of the injury notification from All-Star Baseball 2001 for the Nintendo 64: "Corey Kluber is injured with a br. arm." Talk about ominous...

I give each simulated team the option of carrying up to seven (7) starting pitchers, including two in long relief roles. One of these might be an especially good option for Kenta Maeda - even though he out-rates (however slightly) the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Odorizzi - since the Dodgers have utilized Maeda that way in the later parts of recent seasons. Another big discrepancy in rankings vs. ratings happens in the person of Frankie Montas: the suspension returnee is ranked a strong 130, but enjoys just a 76 rating in the game.

If you've looked at analysis of Aries in past fantasy astrology seasons, you may recognize the lack of an important bullpen piece: a study I did after the close of last season suggests that Indians closer Brad Hand may actually be a Pisces. However even a Hand-less Rams bullpen is still an unmistakable strength, with arguably the best reliever in the game, Josh Hader, joining with breakout closer Kirby Yates to create a lefty-righty one-two punch. And it doesn't stop there, with top setup reliever Dellin Betances, potential Pirates closer Keone Kela, the upside of Edwin Diaz, and the injured David Robertson waiting in the wings.

* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.

As with Pisces, we have one of the Major Arcana as the first card - and we finally get a reading that doesn't include the Three of Bases. The Aries "Pitch" is XII The Slump, although it is notable that this card came out inverted. Aries won the Fantasy Astrology championship back in 2017, and no team except Libra has multiple victories (since I started this project in 2012), so a two-year drought would not exactly qualify as a slump, at least not relative to the rest of the league. That might be where the inverted factor comes into play: this card corresponds to The Hanged Man in a traditional Tarot deck, and THAT card has a very different connotation when inverted (since the man is hanged upside down).

The book that comes with the Baseball Tarot deck explains that when the Slump card appears in a reading, "You are probably in a rut, experiencing self-doubts or a wave of depression, confronting difficulties that just won't go away." I wouldn't say that this outlook applies specifically to the Aries roster, excepting of course ace pitcher Chris Sale's season-ending injury. But it's an understatement to say that the sport of baseball (and the world in general) is experiencing "difficulties that just won't go away" due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Seen from this wider perspective, the Aries "Swing" card, The MVP of Mitts (Cups in traditional Tarot), can be viewed as a guide to action for everyone in this global crisis. The "Accomplishments of the Heart and Spirit" subtitle references internal awareness, trusting your emotions, and compassion, something that we could all stand to focus on during these times of quarantines and social distancing. The book describes the upside of this card's meaning as "Success in an endeavor requiring love, giving, sensitivity, or intuition," which I think is a good way to describe how we should be approaching life right now.

As I mentioned above, Aries represents the start of a new rotation of the Karmic Wheel, thus the Tarot reading associated with this sign can be expected to have wider-reaching implications than some other signs. I've given up trying to assess what this reading might say about the particular outlook of the Aries Rams team in the potential upcoming season, choosing instead to focus on the bigger picture. With that in mind, I'd like to close with one more quote from the Baseball Tarot book by Mark Lerner and Laura Phillips: "The outcome will be influenced most by your ability to recognize and experience your feelings, tap into your intuition, and act with compassion toward everyone in the situation, including yourself." Easier said than done, obviously, but good advice to keep in mind. Stay safe and stay at home, everyone!

Players Missing from MLB The Show 20

Ever since MLB 20: The Show came out on Tuesday, I've been poring over the default rosters, compiling a database of where all the players are located in terms of batting orders and pitching rotations. Or rather, I've been adding that information to my existing database, built on 40-player rosters, non-roster invitees, and players with MLB experience in 2019. And I came across some rather disturbing discrepancies: 20 players among MLB.com's top 800 fantasy players (including three members or MLB.com's top 100 prospects) were omitted from the game's player pool. Here's the full list, starting with offensive players, followed by pitchers.

Gavin Lux, MLB's #2 prospect, is projected to start at second base for the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers (whenever the season ends up starting). Since he's absent from the game's code, utility player Enrique Hernandez gets the virtual nod at LA's keystone. Going by fantasy ranking, next up is Nationals infield prospect Carter Kieboom (#21 on MLB's top 100 prospects list), who has a good chance to take one of Washington's non-Trea Turner infield spots - either second or third base, depending on where new acquisition Starlin Castro ends up. Without Kieboom in the game, fellow newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera is in the starting lineup at the hot corner for the defending World Series champions. The next two players on the list are both imports from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball: Shogo Akiyama was brought in to join a crowded Reds outfield mix, while Yoshitomo Tsutsugo was brought in to join a crowded Rays DH mix. Since neither player has any MLB experience, I guess it's sensible that the game's developers wanted to wait on creating player models for them until they got a chance to see them play in the states. I don't know, is that how programming for sports video games works?

None of the other missing offensive players ranked below 600 on MLB's top 800, so they're unlikely to make a major impact in 2020, but there are some notable names. Jake Fraley is looking like the favorite to grab one of the starting corner outfield jobs in Seattle until Mitch Haniger is ready to return. Abraham Toro could have some added utility to an Astros club mired in turmoil, since he made his MLB debut long after the time period covered in the sign-stealing scandal. Willi Castro could see some time in the unsettled infield mix for the rebuilding Tigers. The Rangers acquired outfielder Adolis Garcia in a minor trade, after he was designated for assignment by the Cardinals. And the lone non-rookie player on this list, Luis Rengifo, was ALMOST included in a trade from the Angels to the Dodgers (centering on LAD outfielder Joc Pederson), but those talks were scuttled after Boston bowed out of the original configuration of the Mookie Betts blockbuster.

Moving to the pitchers - and, quite honestly, the whole reason I first realized something was amiss - burgeoning Athletics left-hander A.J. Puk (#60 on MLB's top 100 prospects list) is nowhere to be found in the game's player pool. While it's true the Puk managed little more than a cup of coffee in his major league debut last season, after spending most of the year recovering from an injury, the same is true of Jesus Luzardo, ANOTHER A's prized lefty (#12 on the prospects list), and he's firmly entrenched as Oakland's number two starter. Six spots behind Puk on MLB's fantasy rankings, we have Josh Lindblom, a former fringe major leaguer who became a star pitching in the Korea Baseball Organization, and is now attempting a stateside return. Much like famed KBO slugger Eric Thames on the offensive side, Lindblom is attempting said comeback with the Milwaukee Brewers, yet he doesn't appear anywhere on their virtual rotation. The Dodgers were hit particularly hard by these omissions, as they lost not only their top infield prospect, but also one of their best pitching prospects in Tony Gonsolin, although their rotation still looks stacked, even without the cat-shirt enthusiast. Going out of order here, the only dedicated reliever on this list is James Karinchak, who spent some time as a closer in Cleveland's minor league ranks in 2019.

I skipped to Karinchak above because I want to group the next two pitchers together. Kwang Hyun Kim and Shun Yamaguchi both spent their careers to date pitching in overseas leagues - the former in the KBO and the latter in the NPB - but are scheduled to make their major league debuts whenever the season gets underway. Both pitchers are also looking at rather unsettled roles: had the season opened as planned, Kim was all but assured a spot in the Cardinals' rotation, due to an injury to Miles Mikolas. But with the delayed start to the season giving the returning expat additional time to recover, Kim could be ticketed for starting his MLB career with a bullpen role. Yamaguchi has actually had success as both a starter and a reliever in Japan, and given the lengths to which Toronto went to improve their pitching staff in the offseason, it was always rather unlikely that Yamaguchi would start the year in the rotation. In the lone Fantasy Astrology reference I'll make in this post, both of these pitchers represent the Cancer Crabs, a sign that has historically lacked depth in the starting pitching department.

Of the final five pitchers on this list, three are veterans (i.e. non-rookies) who didn't see any time in the majors last year due to injury. Kendall Graveman and Chad Kuhl are both recovering from Tommy John surgery (the former was given a make-good deal by the Mariners, while the latter remains with the Pirates), while Cardinals lefty Austin Gomber was pitching in the minors when he went down with biceps and shoulder issues in May. The other two are lower level prospects who could see extended opportunities due to health issues elsewhere on their respective clubs. The Indians acquired Logan Allen (alongside Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig) in a trade with the Padres (and the Reds) at last year's July 31st deadline, and he could help Cleveland fill in for injured hurlers Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Patrick Sandoval struggled in both the majors and the minors last year, but the Angels will likely need him to step up early in the year due to uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani (as a pitcher, anyway) and Griffin Canning.

Fantasy Astrology 2020 Team Ranks - Super Tuesday

If you follow my Twitter, you'll know that I tried just about everything to distract myself from politics following Super Tuesday, to no avail. One of my activities was to determine aggregate team ranks for my Fantasy Astrology Baseball League. To do this, I re-updated my baseball database with up-to-date rankings for all of MLB.com's top 800 players, then I determined projected lineups for all 12 signs based on those rankings, and finally I added up the rankings of all the players in those projected lineups to create one all-encompassing number representing the fantasy talent level of each sign. The results may shock and surprise you...

First of all, it's curious that stars from both the top and bottom ranked signs inked extensions with their real-life clubs just days ago. Sagittarius outfielder Christian Yelich, the #1 ranked player according to MLB this year, will continue with the Brewers for the next nine years. Meanwhile Yoan Moncada will handle third base for the White Sox for the foreseeable future, although he's pushed to DH on Gemini by the presence of Anthony Rendon. Also remember that we're dealing with rankings and not fantasy point totals, so the lower numbers are better. Which is why SAG having the top two-ranked players (Ronald Acuna Jr. is #2) puts them handily at the top of the list.

Possibly not coincidentally, the next-ranked team, Leo, has the #3 overall player Mike Trout (a consensus #1 player for many years before this). And the trend continues with Cancer finishing behind them with the help of #4 player Cody Bellinger (last year's NL MVP). The fourth team, Aries, has not only the #5 player, but also the #8 player... but you can check out more detailed analysis of the top-ranked fantasy players in MLB here.

Moving towards the bottom, of both this list of signs and of MLB.com's fantasy rankings, last year's champion Virgo falls to the bottom four largely because of a single position. The only ranked catcher in the VIR talent pool is John Hicks, who was a frequently-used backup for the Tigers in 2019, but finds himself third (at best) on Arizona's depth chart, and on a minor league invitation to spring training. This uncertain status leaves him with a ranking of 798 out of 800, dragging down an otherwise respectable lineup at basically every position.

While individual player rankings will change (some of them drastically) in the (roughly) next three weeks before the start of the season, but I doubt if the general hierarchy of fantasy signs will shift that much. But only time (and the injury bug) will tell if the stars will show stability or upheaval.

Thoughts About Super Tuesday 2020

In early 2016, Donald Trump was gaining momentum in the Republican presidential primary. Trump presented himself as an outsider who could shake things up: with no political experience whatsoever, he was known as a charismatic yet mostly failed business tycoon and a moderately successful reality TV star. By all appearances, the Republican establishment was not happy with Trump’s presence in the presidential race: for example, take Lindsey Graham’s oft-retweeted warning:

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 3, 2016

However, Trump’s message apparently appealed to voters, he got the nomination, and the Republicans were not destroyed (except in the sense of being morally compromised, but that’s nothing new for politicians).

I am not a practiced political thinker, but I have developed two primary theories for how this happened. The first theory is that the GOP machine truly attempted to block Trump, but was too inept to stop his rise. Maybe everyone in the party who criticized and opposed Trump did so genuinely, but whether because of excessive pride or inadequate dealmaking efforts, nobody was able to do anything about him. The second theory is more sinister: Republicans secretly supported Trump all along, and they deliberately railed against him publicly to bolster his "renegade" image. Proponents of this theory would likely refer to the above-quoted tweet as an instance of Lindsey Graham playing "4D chess," but I prefer to call it good old-fashioned deception. Again, nothing new where politicians are concerned.

Fast forward to late February 2020. Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum in the Democratic presidential primary. Like Trump, Bernie was seen as an outsider in his party, but unlike Trump - whose message was based on hate, fear, and mockery - Bernie espoused progressive policies like universal healthcare, fair taxation of the super wealthy, and combating the climate crisis. Also, in an across-the-aisle mirror of the 2016 Republican primary, the Democratic establishment was nervous of Bernie's rise, as his socialist leanings threatened to upend how the political machine traditionally operated. But unlike the GOP in 2016, moderate Democrats were able to successfully consolidate against Bernie and hand him a defeat on Super Tuesday.

I've heard a lot of talk about how support for Joe Biden comes from the belief that he's the only candidate who can win the general election against Trump in November. But to me (and according to the polls that I've read), that rings patently false. We've been sold the "vote for you HAVE TO vote for in November" idea back in 2016, and yet Hillary Clinton lost the election to Trump. It's not that voters are just petulantly deciding to stay home because their favorite candidate isn't on the ballot; it's that many voters simply have no faith that the political party establishment - the one that determines which candidate you HAVE TO vote for - knows what it takes to win.

The fact is that Bernie has the very same "outsider" status and outspoken persona that helped Trump achieve power in his own party. And yet the Democratic party brass are not embracing this strategy that proved successful for their opponents, choosing to rally behind the established party figurehead. To me, this strategy has less to do with "electability" and more to do with a fear of progressive ideas that I've seen best expressed in this tweet by Nando Vila:

The Democratic Party is more committed to stopping mild social democracy than to stopping fascism. They would rather lose to Trump than give the citizens of this dying, decrepit empire the same basic rights the average European citizen takes for granted.

— Nando (@nandorvila) March 3, 2020

Do I think Joe Biden would make a better president than Donald Trump? Absolutely. Do I think a Biden presidency would usher in the types of changes that our country needs to adequately support the middle class and reverse the seemingly inevitable climate disaster our world is facing? Not as presently presented. And certainly not more than the presidency of a progressive like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who was consistently the most capable and prepared candidate in the Democratic field, but institutional sexism and misogyny is a subject for another post).

That said, I would happily* vote for Biden in November, IF I thought he had the best chance to beat Trump. The thing is, I haven't seen any evidence that Biden is the more "electable" candidate, which makes the actions of the Democrats that much more confusing. I will for sure vote for any candidate running against Trump, and a lot can change between now and November. But as of now, these are some reasons why Super Tuesday 2020 has left me feeling depressed.

Pisces - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

As the calendar turns to the month of March, we also march into the biggest month of Pisces season. Thus, Pisces will be the next sign I'll profile in my preview of the 2020 Fantasy Astrology Baseball season. For details on this particular preview series, please check out the previous post about Aquarius. Although unlike the Water Carriers, the Fish have had some Fantasy Astrology success, winning the championship back in 2015, unseating threepeat champions Libra team, thanks to the performances of Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Davis. I'll bet you'll be able to guess which two of those three players will start the 2020 season on the Pisces projected 40-player roster:

Remember that the fantasy rankings displayed here are current as of Valentine's Day, which is why Luis Severino is listed here, despite the fact that he will miss the entire 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. While it surely hurts to lose a pitcher of Sevy's caliber, the Fish still have a high quality rotation, with a top end of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and German Marquez. The depth falls off somewhat after that, at least considering established starters, despite the fact that Anibal Sanchez was an integral part of the World Champion Nationals last season. But in terms of replacing Severino's production, the best shots might be pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore, depending on when the Padres see fit to bring him up to the Show.

But while the Fish have lost a starter (due to injury), they actually gain a reliever (due to some bookkeeping corrections). Players aren't supposed to change teams in the Fantasy Astrology landscape, but some research I did this offseason shows that I had misclassified Brad Hand as an Aries in previous versions of this project. Hand joins the Pisces player pool prior to 2020, joining flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman to form arguably the best lefty-lefty bullpen duo in the league. The bullpen is deep too, with former/potential closers Scott Oberg, Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, and Emmanuel Clase.

The same bookkeeping corrections that delivered Brad Hand also took away longtime shortstop Didi Gregorius, who is in fact an Aquarius. The incumbent shortstop, Jean Segura, will maintain his eligibility, even though he is moving over to second base in Philadelphia to make room for... you guessed it, Didi Gregorius. But as soon as Segura does qualify at the keystone, he'll move to make room for Blue Jays recent prospect graduate Bo Bichette. Speaking of infielders north of the border, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't break out last year like we all hoped, but everyone believes the potential is there. Still, he might need to look over his shoulder at Miguel Andujar, depending on his role/production with the Yankees.

As far as locks for the roster, J.T. Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in the game. Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, and Tommy Pham should fill up the corner OF/DH slots, leaving center field for Michael Conforto, and creating a camp battle at first base between Trey Mancini and Rhys Hoskins. That leaves Kyle Schwarber to fight for a bench spot against two of baseball's most versatile utility players: Marwin Gonzalez and Niko Goodrum.


* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.

Divination really sucks sometimes. All the excitement after pulling one of the Major Arcana for the "Pitch" (XVI: Whole New Ballgame), only to be totally crestfallen when the "Swing" turned out to be the same card I pulled for Aquarius (Three of Bases: Shake-Off). However, this time it was inverted? That's gotta count for something? But back to that momentous first card: in the traditional Tarot deck, Whole New Ball Game corresponds to The Tower, a card that represents a period of great upheaval. While lightning striking a scoreboard depicting a dramatic comeback by the home team doesn't evoke the same catastrophe as the traditional art (where the eponymous tower is literally crumbling and its denizens are falling to their dooms), it's clear that a shocking change is in store.

The biggest change that comes to mind between when I made the above charts and now is Luis Severino's elbow injury. The book that comes with the deck features the bullet point "The Deeper Truth Comes Out" in its entry for this card, and in this case, the deeper truth could refer to the rotation depth that will be necessary to get through the season. Another change in the Pisces roster involves the departing/arriving players (i.e. Didi Gregorius and Brad Hand, respectively), which could correspond to the "Chaos Leading to New Knowledge" bullet point in the book. In either case, the important thing Pisces should focus on is staying grounded so as best to cope with surprises: either the ones that already happened, or the ones that are in store.

As for the inverted Three of Balls, I wrote about that one last time, saying that it represents "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Obviously this dovetails nicely with the catastrophic change that's depicted in the first card, but the fact that the Shake-Off is inverted could represent an unwillingness to accept this change (kind of like the GM who says the team will "rely on internal options" in the wake of a significant injury). Or it could mean that an unorthodox, out-of-the-box solution is necessary in this case (e.g. the opener strategy). Either way, big things are clearly on the horizon for Pisces in 2020.