Sunday, July 29, 2018

If the Season Ended Today 2018 NL Division Series

If the 2018 MLB season ended at the All-Star Break, the participants in the NL Division Series (the one that would not involve a Wild Card team) would be separated by just a half game: the Phillies and the the Dodgers had the same number of wins, but Philadelphia had one fewer game in the loss column. Looking at the standings heading into play this Sunday, that's in fact still the case. The last time these two teams faced each other in the playoffs, the Los Angeles lost two straight NLCS matchups in 2008-09, but needless to say, there have been wholesale changes to each organization in the decade since. Let's check out the Dodgers lineup that will hope to reverse the recent historical trends of the postseason meetings between these two teams.



This Dodgers team hinges on positional versatility, as evidenced by the fact that the above lineup makes no sense if you look only at the Position 1 column. In order to make this particular group of players work, no fewer than three players would have to rely on their secondary position: Cody Bellinger would need to move from first base to center field to make room for breakout Home Run Derby participant Max Muncy. All-Star starting left fielder Matt Kemp would have to shift across the outfield to accommodate Joc Pederson in left - at least that was the case until regular right fielder Yasiel Puig returned from the disabled list this weekend, who has 835 fantasy points on the year, with 11.5 points per game. And utility player Enrique Hernandez is currently the top scoring second base option, relegating Chase Utley and Logan Forsythe (293 / 4.7) to bench/DH roles. Of course this whole calculus changes with the post-All-Star Game acquisition of Manny Machado (1,524 / 15.9), fresh off representing the Orioles as the starting shortstop for the AL All-Star squad, as a replacement for the injured Corey Seager (272 / 10.5).

The order of the starting pitchers presented above is somewhat skewed, given that they're organized by total points. Ross Stripling has had a tremendous season, despite picking up the loss in the All-Star Game, but Clayton Kershaw would clearly start Game 1 of any playoff series, health permitting. If we go by last year's playoff usage, Kenta Maeda would be relegated to the bullpen in favor of Rich Hill (350 / 29.2), but this year, manager Dave Roberts will hopefully also have to factor in rookie Walker Buehler (597 / 54.3) and currently injured Hyun-Jin Ryu (443 / 73.8) into his postseason plans. This team's bullpen has been something of a work in progress, beyond All-Star closer Kenley Jansen - LA has already acquired five different relievers midseason, including the above-pictured Dylan Floro (who was actually recently optioned to the minors). With just four days to go until the trade deadline, I would be surprised if GM Farhan Zaidi was done tinkering.



Of all the offenses we've looked at so far, Philadelphia's might be the least impacted by injury. Former top prospect J.P. Crawford (213 / 6.3) is currently on the 10-day DL, but he had already been leaprogged in the team's infield depth chart by just-graduated prospect Scott Kingery, who signed a multi-year extension with the club this offseason before appearing in a single Major League game. The offseason signing of Carlos Santana pushed Rhys Hoskins into the outfield full time, which hasn't led to a dropoff in power, as evidenced by his Home Run Derby participation this year. Center fielder Odubel Herrera is in the midst of a breakout season, and even the much maligned Maikel Franco is putting up decent numbers. If this team has an obvious weak link, it's in the outfield, where neither Nick Williams nor (especially) Aaron Altherr are living up to expectations... which is why it was surprising to me that GM Matt Klentak's biggest midseason acquisition so far was infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (1,094 / 11.9) from the division rival Mets.

It was also surprising that a first place team would have just one All-Star representative, but Aaron Nola was no token choice: he was in fact the sixth most productive starting pitcher in all of baseball at the break, according to fantasy points. Jake Arrieta hasn't quite lived up to the hype since signing a late free agent deal this spring, but he has served as a solid mid-rotation piece for first year manager Gabe Kapler. But the most surprising story of this pitching staff is the emergence of Zach Eflin (801 / 66.8), who just came off the DL to round out a very impressive starting five. The second-most surprising Phillies pitching story is the DE-mergence of Hector Neris (398 / 12.1) who not only lost his closer role to first year rookie Seranthony Dominguez, but was also optioned to the minor leagues prior to the break. Dominguez (Philly's #30 ranked prospect heading into the season) and fellow rookie reliever Victor Arano (#28) have held their own this year, joining veterans Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, but this strikes me as another team that could stand to pursue some bullpen help at the deadline.


Next time, I'll take a look at the AL Division Series, non-Wild Card edition.

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