I'll get back to the Divisional All-Stars soon enough (trust me, I've sunk too much work into the project to abandon it now), but before I do, here's a look back at the four Fantasy Astrology playoff teams from 2017, and how their projected lineups stack up, according to the rankings MLB.com's player preview. Rankings for each team's starters are included in the graphics above the commentary, while rankings for runners-up are referenced in parentheses, where applicable.
Last year, the Aries Rams unseated the four-time champion Libra Scales in the final round, so we'll start with them. The Aries rotation is once again led by Corey Kluber and Chris Sale (who are, incidentally, scheduled to face off against each other in Game 1 of the Divisional All-Stars "ALCS," so stay tuned!), and Carlos Carrasco makes the Rams the only team with three starters in the top 30. Kenta Maeda was relegated to bullpen duty for the Dodgers in the playoffs, but he's pretty well situated to lock down the SP4 spot. For the fifth starter, we have a three-way competition representing three different aspects: Felix Hernandez (track record, and a ranking of 203), Eduardo Rodriguez (upside, 215), and Jake Odorizzi (stability). UPDATE: This may have just become a two-horse race, depending on the severity of King Felix's "upper forearm" injury he sustained when he was hit by a line drive today.) With a full season of save opportunities on the horizon, Brad Hand slots into the top closer's role, pushing Edwin Diaz to number 2. However, even if neither of these two options work out, they've got two more proven closers in the mix: Mark Melancon (191), who's hoping for a bounce back season after injuries ruined his 2017 in San Francisco, and Brad Brach (217), who will once again be filling in for an injured Zach Britton (411) in Baltimore.
On the offensive side, let's start with the known knowns before moving into some notable changes from last year's end-of-season lineup. Aries will bring back Buster Posey behind the plate, Daniel Murphy at the keystone, Nolan Arenado at the hot corner, and its entire starting outfield of Lorenzo Cain, Jay Bruce, and Dexter Fowler. Travis Shaw (200) lost his first base eligibility (a holdover from his 2016 season with the Red Sox), but despite his 30 HR, 100 RBI, 2,000 fantasy point season, MLB.com's rankings strongly prefer a potential return to form by Miguel Cabrera, ranking him exactly 110 spots above (below? in front of?) Shaw. For DH duties, MLB points to 2017 rookie phenom Matt Olson of the A's, who has the edge over such luminaries as Adrian Beltre (142) and Carlos Santana (162). But what makes this team so scary is that Astros third baseman Alex Bregman gained shortstop eligibility, as he spent at least 20 games filling in for the injured Carlos Correa last year, shoring up a position that otherwise would have gone to Adeiny Hechavarria (517).
As I've mentioned before, Libra has won the Fantasy Astrology championship four out of the six times I've run this simulation, and they look to be a powerhouse again this year. Diamondbacks teammates Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray once again sit atop the Scales rotation, with Tampa Bay Ray (at least for now) Chris Archer following closely behind. Lance McCullers Jr. and Alex Cobb (135) are neck and neck in terms of rankings, but until the latter actually signs a contract to play for a team in 2018, I'm more likely to name J.A. Happ or even Tanner Roark (161) as this team's fifth starter. Kenley Jansen and Sean Doolittle figure to reprise their roles as the 1 and 2 bullpen options, but should either of them falter, the next line of defense has some upside: the rankings predict that Jeurys Familia (240) should take back the mantle of Mets closer from last year's trade deadline acquisition AJ Ramos (425), and Brad Ziegler (400) is a good bet to serve as the Marlins' 9th inning specialist, in an effort to keep youngsters Kyle Barraclough (328) and Drew Steckenrider (371) from racking up saves-enhanced arbitration paydays.
Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Zimmerman remain basically the only viable options for catcher and first base, respectively, even though Tyler Flowers (359) is projected to start ahead of Zook, and the ranking system has no love for Zimm's 2,000 point season last year. The rest of the Libra infield represents a changing of the guard of sorts in MLB's young talent landscape: a few years ago, Robinson Cano (83), Evan Longoria (237), and Troy Tulowitzki (373) would be the clear starters, but now that trio has been supplanted by Jonathan Schoop, Jake Lamb, and Xander Bogaerts; although it could be argued that Cano should hold a spot in this lineup as the DH. That role is currently occupied by Andrew McCutchen, the fourth-highest-ranked outfielder on the team, behind top 20 corner outfielders Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper, and projected center fielder Starling Marte. Although, if you consider that Cano and McCutchen's ratings are probably buoyed by their up-the-middle positional eligibility, you could make a case that Yoenis Cespedes (104) deserves some DH consideration as well, but I'm sure a lot of these issues will sort themselves out as spring training camp goes on.
The Virgo starting staff is more reliant on pitchers hoping for bounce back seasons than any other contender. Projected ace Noah Syndergaard had a lost 2017 after tearing his lat muscle (immediately after the Mets told him to take an MRI, which he refused), and David Price battled through his own injuries last year, and was only able to return as a reliever for the Red Sox in the playoffs. Carlos Martinez and Gerrit Cole are good bets to put up strong seasons again, despite the latter moving to the star-studded AL West in the offseason. But if Gio Gonzalez experiences some likely regression, this team could be in for some trouble, as there's not much on hand in the way of pitching depth: after Gio, there's a dropoff of more than 120 points in the rankings, as returning Japanese league standout Miles Mikolas (248) and largely unproven Jakob Junis (252) are next on the depth chart. Although they should get a jolt next year when Cardinals phenom Alex Reyes (450) returns to the starting staff following Tommy John surgery. I'm pretty sure I've made this joke before, but if you put the names of this team's two closers together (Wade Davis and Ken Giles), you get the old timey method of transcribing Mandarin Chinese.
You know your catching situation is in trouble when the best option is the backup to one of the majors' best and most reliable backstops (Aries catcher Buster Posey), but the Maidens roster is so strong everywhere else, they can afford to punt behind the plate. The most notable source of this strength is at first base, where Virgo gets to choose from three of the top 25 players: Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Freddie Freeman (22). What's more, if Freeman's 11 game experiment at third base last year had lasted just nine games longer, Virgo could get all three of them in the lineup (with the DH spot), creating a nigh-unstoppable offensive force. That would allow Jose Ramirez to move to second base (where he might not qualify again next year, provided his Indians teammate Jason Kipnis (250, Aries) can stay healthy in 2018), where he would team with Carlos Correa for an All-World double play combo. As it stands now, Dodgers super utility player Chris Taylor would occupy second base, with Ramirez remaining at third... that is unless Mike Moustakas (188) has a dramatic jump in rankings upon signing with a team. If that happens, Taylor would likely not move back to the outfield, which already features Justin Upton, George Springer, and Billy Hamilton, not to mention Brett Gardner (138) waiting in the wings.
If you look at only active major leaguers when determining the starting rotation for the Cancer Decapods (formerly Crabs, but why have a team named after TWO diseases when you could change one of them to something more scientific?), you would have a very top-heavy unit. Stephen Strasburg is one of the top five pitchers in the game, according to the rankings (number five, in fact), but Aaron Sanchez is coming off a season marred by chronic blister problems, and even so, he just barely ranks within the top 150. Michael Wacha proved that he was healthy (if unspectacular) in 2017, whereas Dinelson Lamet doesn't have much of a track record at all, although the ranking system seems to love his upside. All this would seem to set up a fifth starter battle between Marco Estrada (184) and Patrick Corbin (189)... until you factor in the game's number one prospect (according to MLB.com) Shohei Ohtani. I have no idea how to deal with his status as a two-way player in my database (let alone in terms of fantasy sports software -- does he take up two rosters spots?), but the number two spot in this Cancer rotation is his to lose, even if he doesn't take an at-bat for this team. In the bullpen, Felipe Rivero will return as the team's top reliever after taking over as the Pirates closer last year, while Blake Treinen has emerged as the best option behind him, as he's slated to close for the A's.
It's very important for the Decapods to take advantage of Ohtani's rookie season because of some positional logjams that will likely arise in 2019. First the things that won't change: Yadier Molina remains entrenched at catcher (and incidentally, if and when he chooses to hang up his spikes, his heir apparent in St. Louis, prospect Carson Kelly (630), is also on this team). Cody Bellinger will play first, even though he carries left field eligibility, because the next best option to field throws from the infielders is still-unsigned Adam Lind (461). Ian Kinsler and DJ LeMahieu (113) will be engaged in their usual battle at second base, with Josh Harrison (247) likely lagging behind those two. And two outfield spots will surely be filled by Charlie Blackmon, last year's top offensive scorer, and Andrew Benintendi, both of whom qualify for center field eligibility. Projected Rangers DH Shin-Soo Choo, who's coming off a rather underrated offensive year, has to man the other outfield corner, which is where we get into the complications.
As of now, Cancer's top two infielders are shortstop Trea Turner (who I think is pretty seriously over-hyped at #4 overall, but I'll take it) and third baseman Manny Machado, who has expressed an interest in moving back to his original position of... shortstop. If this comes to pass, it won't be a problem for the coming season, as Machado's 3B eligibility will carry over from next year, and even if he does vacate third, Eugenio Suarez (164) will be around to take over. However, the problem with moving Machado to DH lies in the fact that slugger Nelson Cruz just lost his outfield eligibility from 2017, which means that he and his 39 home runs would have to sit on the bench in order to get both Turner and Machado in the lineup. Now, this is thinking way ahead, and one of three things can happen to avoid this mishap: Machado could continue to take enough reps at 3B to keep his eligibility, or the Mariners could abandon their youth-and-defense movement and run Cruz in the outfield with more regularity, or the Nationals could acquire a top shortstop and shift Turner back to center field, where he played during his sophomore season in 2016. But none of these are locks to occur, which is why 2018 is such an important year for the Decapods to capitalize on the weird eligibility vs. capability disconnect that helps make Fantasy Baseball the amazingly complex pastime it is.
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