1. NL West: 40,350
2. NL Central: 39,796
3. NL East: 38,769
4. NL Wild Card: 32,682
But despite the point totals, let's start thing off with the division that produced this year's World Series champion Chicago Cubs, the National League Central:
It's not difficult to see that those World Series champs were the dominant force in this division: 9 of the 25 players, or 36% of the roster, played for the Cubs. That includes 4 out of 5 members of the starting rotation, which is the same amount of TOTAL players contributed by each of the Pirates and Brewers. (The Reds came in second with 5 and the Cardinals brought up the rear with 3.) NL MVP Kris Bryant is the team's overall fantasy point leader, and I left him batting second because that's where he started the majority of his games in 2016 (83 to 62 batting third). However, I separated Bryant from his usual lineup protector, Anthony Rizzo, because in these compilation-type lineups, it's fun to switch things up from how they would normally look in real life - also because Joey Votto had the superior offensive season, both in terms of fantasy points and in offensive rWAR (5.4 to 4.6). The reason why Votto has to languish in the DH spot (yes, I'm using a DH spot for both leagues, don't make me explain why again) is because he was worth a career-worst 2.4 defensive wins BELOW replacement in the field, while Rizzo just about broke even with the glove (0.2 defensive rWAR).
I did put a fair amount of thought into these batting orders, and I understand the implications of placing two left-handed hitters back-to-back, but considering that both Votto and Rizzo put up OPS's above .830 when facing same-handed pitching, I don't think it would prove much of an issue. Some of this thought process included going against fantasy points with Andrew McCutchen's spot in the batting order for mostly sentimental reasons: the Cubs and Reds already had representatives in this lineup, and McCutchen has been the face of his franchise for so long that he deserves a shot at redemption. Since any bench that includes super utility type Sean Rodriguez is automatically a plus, the one weakness of this team has to be the bullpen after closer Mark Melancon, who is eligible for the NL Central because he spent the majority of his season there before being traded to the Nationals in the NL East. Kevin Siegrist has been a solid lefty option for three out of his four years in the bigs and Raisel Iglesias pitched well as a swingman with closer potential in 2016. But the rest of the relief corps is filled with regression candidates and significant question marks. But then again with a starting rotation this stacked (which is basically World Series winning rotation plus Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals), the bullpen likely has some significant breathing room.
A big factor in why the NL West earns the top spot in the rankings is a whopping five position players who topped the National League as a whole in production at their respective positions. The complete list is: Nolan Arenado (3B), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Charlie Blackmon (CF), Jean Segura (2B), and Buster Posey (C), although Segura probably deserves an asterisk, since he also spent a significant amount of 2016 at shortstop (where he will presumably play next year in Seattle). Even with that caveat, the West is still the clear leader: the NL Central owns Jonathan Villar at SS and Ryan Braun in RF, while the NL East has just Christian Yelich in LF (with Daniel Murphy filling in at 2B in the unlikely event that Segura is disqualified). Even though the top of this lineup is heavily skewed to Arizona and Colorado, all five teams in the division are represented, thanks to Rookie of the Year Corey Seager of the Dodgers at SS and Wil Myers from San Diego as the DH. And even if you're so backward-thinking as to leave out the DH, Matt Kemp qualified for the West because he spent the majority of his resurgent 2016 season in San Diego before being shipped to Atlanta at the trade deadline.
Even though the West doesn't have the top-scoring NL pitcher (read on to find out who that is), they do have numbers two, three, and six. These are, respectively, Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto of the Giants, and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who earns the top spot in this team's starting five due to his astronomical points-per-game average, even though he missed the most significant time of his career due to injury in 2016. The last two pitchers in the rotation, Kenta Maeda and Jeff Samardzija, just reinforce how much starting pitching in the NL West was a two-horse race last year. The same can be said about relief pitching in the West, but with the Padres replacing the Giants as the other horse joining Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers, thanks to two breakout lefties from San Diego. I know that it's cheating slightly to put Jon Jay in a bench role, since he started for the Padres until his season ended due to a broken forearm, but with iron gloved Matt Kemp and Carlos Gonzalez in the outfield corners, this team needs all the defensive help it can get.
Despite MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, near-batting-champion Daniel Murphy, and once-and-future superstars Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes, the NL East has the weakest offense of the three National League divisions. I mean, Christian Yelich has a lot of potential, and his possible eventual move to center field is a big plus, since I'm not that high on Odubel Herrera (despite the awesome name - and what are the odds that he's on the same Divisional All-Star team as someone named Asdrubal?). And not that this will impact any proposed simulation involving these rosters, but Wilson Ramos is due to miss some time next year after undergoing knee surgery, and his best backup option, current free agent A.J. Pierzynski, is not only uninspiring offensively, but a polarizing clubhouse figure to boot.
Speaking of players that won't make an impact in any potential simulations, a word has to be said about the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, who would have been this team's number two starter behind overall 2016 fantasy points leader Max Scherzer. I left his name in the document as a monument to his greatness, but I also provided another starter to take over for the Cuban phenom. Fernandez was a rising star who will be missed not only by his family, friends, and Marlins teammates, but by the baseball community as a whole.
On a more positive note, this pitching staff makes up for the lackluster offense with a surplus of aces to go with Scherzer. Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the clear leader of the Mets starting staff after Matt Harvey's injury troubles and Jacob deGrom's regression. Stephen Strasburg pitches behind Scherzer in real life, but he could serve as the ace for most MLB clubs. And their Nationals teammate Tanner Roark could move to the bullpen in a four-man playoff rotation scenario in favor of Julio Teheran who has started for his entire career. Like Wilson Ramos, closer Jeurys Familia will also miss the beginning of the 2017 season, albeit for more sinister reasons. But this team has his real life Mets backup, Addison Reed, ready to fill in. Also ready in the wings is the pitcher who might end up closing games for the real life Nationals if they don't get active on the free agent or trade market, Shawn Kelley.
I haven't run the numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure it's mathematically impossible for the Wild Card Divisional Roster team to finish anything but fourth place out of four in overall fantasy points. Because by design, every player on this team has at least one player at his position who outscored him (possibly more for position players because of the DH spot, many more in the case of pitchers). But despite that, this lineup looks pretty solid overall, including a batting champion (DJ LeMahieu), a home run leader (Chris Carter), and recipients of two of the winter's largest free agent contracts (Dexter Fowler and Justin Turner). Plus, when you look at the contributions on both offense and defense from cornerstones of their respective franchises Starling Marte, Yadier Molina, and Brandon Crawford, you have the makings of a scrappily underrated club. Of course, Carter still hasn't found a home and the Mets can't seem to give Jay Bruce away, but that's mostly due to quirks in the market than any deficiencies in the players themselves (excepting, of course, Bruce's struggles down the stretch last year).
This team clearly would have looked stronger with Julio Teheran atop the starting rotation instead of Dan Straily (a recent addition to the NL's All-Acquired roster), but that's obviously the least significant effect of the Jose Fernandez situation. As it stands, Straily will join fellow All-Acquired rotation mate Bartolo Colon, qualifying offer recipient Jeremy Hellickson, and Drew Pomeranz (who qualifies for the NL due to spending more time (and pitching better) with the Padres than the Red Sox last year) as the top options in a playoff rotation. Interestingly enough, lefty Travis Wood, who rounds out this team's bullpen, could potentially return to starting next year, but he would be unlikely to unseat any of the regular starters. OH also, looking at this team's bench, the presence of David Ross is obviously a historical anachronism, since the beloved backstop retired after helping his Cubs win the World Series last year, but I've already taken the screenshot (which shows that Google Docs does not recognize the abbreviations for Relief Pitcher or the Cincinnati Reds), so I'm not going to go back and fix it. He should have been replaced by Diamondbacks backup Chris Herrmann, who actually outscored Ross in terms of fantasy points (548 to 533), but who lacked the requisite 200 AB to merit official consideration on these lists.
Stay tuned for the Divisional All-Stars for the American League!
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