Sunday, November 13, 2016

All-Rookie Teams 2016

It's been ten days since the conclusion of the World Series, and it took me that long to finish my aforementioned SWP by Teams project for the 2016 year. This has resulted in a 32-page document (one page per team, one snazzy title page, and one bonus page showing how many fantasy points the various postseason MVPs accrued during their award-worthy series), which will quite likely be seen by no one but me. But throughout the offseason, I will publish various excerpts taken from this document, such as projects like Divisional All-Stars, and this list of rosters made up of the best 2016 rookies from either league. Let's start with the National League, of which the World Series winning Chicago Cubs are a member.

The most impressive hitter among the entire 2016 rookie crop is obviously Silver Slugger Corey Seager, who led his Dodgers to an NLCS berth, while also leading their offense in fantasy points. But what's even more impressive about this league's rookies in particular is that the next two overall scoring rookies wouldn't even show up on this list if I didn't add a DH: Aledmys Diaz beat out Trevor Story for the second string shortstop job by just a single point (1,510 to 1,509, if you don't want to look over at the numbers). The reason I chose the breakout SS of the Cardinals over that of the Rockies is because of the season-ending thumb injury suffered by Story at the end of July. While Trea Turner was just slightly below the above-mentioned pair of shortstops in terms of overall points, no offensive player in all of baseball who exceeded 40 plate appearances could match Turner's 19.4 points per game. Turner's multi-positional eligibility (he also qualified at 2B, but was a SS through most of his minor league career) could also open up some playing time for Padres CF Travis Jankowski (863, 6.6), who finally provides the Gemini Astrology Fantasy team with a starting center field option.

Without Story making the cut for this lineup, the Rockies' lone representative is David Dahl, who could force a trade issue in Colorado's crowded outfield. Speaking of the outfield, Brandon Drury played more games in the corner outfield than at third base, but his 29 games at the hot corner are more than enough to qualify. Cleanup hitter Tommy Joseph put up good enough numbers to unseat face of the franchise Ryan Howard at first base for the Phillies, and that's even without holding the platoon advantage the majority of the time. Meanwhile, the Padres have a team-leading two players in this batting order, both of whom are rather opportunistic starters. Ryan Schimpf took over second base when Cory Spangenberg went down with an injury, while the door for Alex Dickerson to take over left field was forced open with the trade of Melvin Upton Jr. to the Blue Jays. And while Willson Contreras was only one of three qualifying catchers for those world champion Cubs, but he was the best performer of the three and most likely to stick behind the plate long term.

Kenta Maeda's status as an MLB rookie is a bit deceptive, as he had eight strong seasons in Japan's NPB before coming stateside (despite the fact that he's only 28 years old). That's only two years younger than this year's most effective rookie starter in terms of points per game, Junior Guerra, who came out of nowhere to form half of a solid rookie tandem with Zach Davies atop Milwaukee's rotation. Jon Gray is one of a number of young pieces that will hope to end Colorado's long period of pitching futility, along with honorable mention for this list Tyler Anderson (887 points, 47.5 PPG). And of course we've already seen Steven Matz perform on the sport's biggest stage in last year's World Series, but a bone spur in his elbow prevented him from putting up a full season's worth of numbers.

If you're hung up on the whole Japanese league import thing and don't consider Maeda to be a "true rookie," the next starter on the rookie depth chart would be longtime Pirates prospect Jameson "Tie-OWN" Taillon (935, 51.9). If you have the same concerns over new Cardinals closer Seung Hwan Oh, who had 11 seasons as a star closer in the KBO and NPB before coming stateside, you need look no further than Carlos Estevez (607, 9.6), who closed games for the Rockies while Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino dealt with various injuries. Other guys on this list with closer experience in 2016 include Mauricio Cabrera, who earned six saves in Atlanta's unsettled Jim Johnson/Arodys Vizcaino situation, and Jake Barrett, who had the second-most save opportunities for the Diamondbacks after Brad Ziegler was traded, but only picked up four saves in the process. Seth Lugo and Alex Reyes both look like they will develop into effective starters, but they were hit with the ambiguous "P" label because they racked up more relief appearances than starts in 2016.

Sticking with pitchers, Detroit's Michael Fulmer (late of the Mets from the Yoenis Cespedes trade) probably has the best shot at AL Rookie of the Year honors, but as a whole the junior circuit's rookie starters were a lot less effective than their NL counterparts. That's not to say there weren't some heralded names in the bunch: in addition to Fulmer, Sean Manaea and Blake Snell were also on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list heading into the season, compared to only two National League starters, Jon Gray and Stephen Matz... or three if you count Taillon. Meanwhile Joe Musgrove did make an appearance on Houston's list of top 30 prospects prior to 2016, while Ariel Miranda come out of nowhere to put up big numbers following a trade from Baltimore to Seattle.

Speaking of Seattle, Edwin Diaz filled in so admirably for an injured Steve Cishek in early August, that the rookie took over the Mariners' closer role over the final two months of the season. He headlines an AL rookie bullpen that doesn't have a weak link in the bunch. Ryan Dull was so adept at preventing inherited runners from scoring (only 13% of whom scored on him in 2016) that I suggested he use "Enter Strand Man" as his entrance music with runners on base. Mychal Givens blossomed into the top setup man in front of arguably the game's top closer. Michael Feliz didn't have a great ERA, but his ability to pitch multiple innings drove up his fantasy points. And the Rangers' rookie tandem of Matt Bush and Tony Barnette should solidify the back end of their pen for years to come. Speaking of multiple innings, the two "P's" on this list have very different career trajectories. Dylan Bundy will absolutely transition into Baltimore's rotation - he was used in the bullpen this year to limit his innings - while Chris Devenski was used as a spot starter / long reliever and in my opinion has the best shot at turning into the next Andrew Miller. You heard it here first! Maybe!

There are some impressive bats in this AL rookies lineup, but the main force here is obviously catcher Gary Sanchez. It's almost too bad that he squandered his rookie eligibility on a season where he only played 50 games, because if he put up production even approaching his 17.4 PPG over his first full season, he would probably garner consideration for AL MVP in addition to handily winning the RoY award. Nomar Mazara jumped all over the opportunity afforded by Shin-Soo Choo's early season injury in Texas by putting up the most overall offensive points by a 2016 AL rookie. After Mazara and his German corner outfield mate Max Kepler, White Sox leadoff hitter Tim Anderson has the next-most impressive prospect pedigree in this lineup, who joins with Trea Turner to form a very strong young core for the Cancer Crabs Astrology team. Ryon Healy's emergence at 3B for the Athletics was a big reason why Danny Valencia was just shipped to the Mariners yesterday. For the Royals, Whit Merifield had a rather clear path to the team's 2B position (at least until Raul Mondesi finishes his development), but Cheslor Cuthbert was plugged in at 3B as an injury stopgap for Mike Moustakas. Jefry Marte also played some 3B and LF for the Angels. And CF Tyler Naquin is the only rookie on this list to play for the AL champion Indians.

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