Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Curse of Strahd: Wizard of Wines Winery


"If this is what their vineyards look like, it's no wonder this place hasn't made its scheduled delivery." A forlorn look played over Joslyn's face as she looked at the dry, desiccated vines that seemed to spread for miles over the depressing fields. "If this is what my crops looked like at home, my family would be ruined... but... we can't even get home, can we?"

"Not since we got stuck in this accursed land of Barovia," remarked Brother Owen Longmire, his warhammer hanging next to his holy symbol at the belt of his heavy armor. But then he tried his best at a reassuring smile and placed a hand on the young farm girl's shoulder. "But while we're here, we have to make the best of it. And to do that, we have to get into the city of Kresk."

"And they won't let us into Kresk until we pick up the scheduled delivery of wine from the Wizard of Wines Winery," wrapped up Perri Hopter, a wizard himself, of the gnome variety. "Which, according to the posted signs, looks like it's this way..." As he spoke, a large two-story building came into view on the hilltop ahead.

"Wait! What's that?" The keen eyes of Mia the rogue spotted something and signaled the party to halt. "There's a man hiding in the bushes over there."

The rustling of a few leaves revealed an old man dressed in work clothes sneaking around in the underbrush off the road. But instead of running in fear from the group of seasoned adventurers, the man beckoned them over.

"Looks like he wants us to come say hello," smirked Ken the barbarian. "Let's go give him what he wants."

"Zis way, huhrry!" the man beckoned in his thick Barovian accent. "It izn't safe to trhavel to ze vueinery!"

"What do you know about the winery, old man?" barked Ken, placing his hands threateningly on the swords at his side. "Spill it, or we'll beat it out of you!"

"Zere is no need for zat, my fhriend," said the man, throwing up his hands in surrender, but still holding on to a curious air of pride. "My name is Davian Martikov, and my family operates ze Vizard of Vueines Vueinery. Or, vee did until it vas taken over... by evil druids!"

"Oh yeah?" responded the Barbarian cockily, "Well, my name is Ken Barbie -- I actually took my wife's last name when we were married, Barbara Barbie, she was a wonderful woman, Gods rest her soul -- and I ain't afraid of no druids!"

"How many are there?" asked Mia, getting down to business in her usual way.

"Perhaps as many as a dozen," replied Davian.

"A dozen?" An incredulous Ken raised an eyebrow skeptically, his hands moving from his sword hilts to his hips.

Davian looked around nervously. "Vell, at least half a dozen. I couldn't exactly tell."

"Not to worry!" boomed Brother Owen, using his encouraging hand on the shoulder of his new friend. "We can clear out a dozen druids if need be. Nature mages are generally pretty squishy."

"Yes, but zeese druids vere using ze very power of ze land against us!" continued Davian spookily. "They summoned scores of blights and ve vere overrun."

"Blights?" ventured Joslyn, her wide eyes betraying fear and lack of experience.

"Nasty, twiggy, planty monsters," explained Davian. "But zey're power is in zeir numbers only - you can cut zhrough zeese blights like paper."

"But druids and blights aside," interjected Perri, "our business is to fulfill your promised wine delivery to the city of Kresk. If we can return control of your vineyard to you, how long before you can start producing wine again?"

"Oh, ze barrels of vuine for ze delivery are ready to go," explained Davian. "Ve had just finished loading zem on ze cart vhen ve vere attacked."

"Perfect, so all we need to do is grab the cart and we'll be on our way!" suggested Ken, as he started across the fields.

"But what about the druids?" asked an increasingly concerned Joslyn. "They are preventing the supply of wine to this whole valley. We should eradicate them and restore order."

"Joslyn, look around you," offered Ken. "Have you seen this valley? Freezing mist everywhere, haunted houses, creepy dolls... a vampire overlord? This place is beyond saving. Let's just get the wine and move on. Unless..." Ken did his best to turn a charming glance at Davian. "If there's something in it for us, we might consider helping you out."

A look of indignation came over Davian's face. "Zeese foul druids have taken over my family's home and forced us out into the woods! Vhat reward can I be expected to offer you in my condition?" He held out his hands to his sides, revealing his dilapidated clothes. "If you vould vish to rob me as vell, you are velcome to vhat I have."

"Rob you? Now wait just a minute!" fumed Ken as he approached Davian. "If you want us to risk our lives cleaning up your mess, we're just talking about payment for services rendered. I don't know how your wine business survived if this is how you go about negotiation, but you can't expect us to just..."

"What my friend means to say," interrupted Joslyn, "is that we will be happy to deal with your problem, for free, for the good of the valley." She positioned herself between the two arguing parties and led the hotheaded warrior away towards the house on the hill. "Come along now, Ken."

"For the record, that's not what I meant at all!" shouted Ken over his shoulder, as the party disappeared into the mist.

===

"You're sure Iriyena will be safe at this lake you spoke aboout?" asked Khralis the dwarf cleric in a hushed tone.

"Oh yes, quite safe," replied Ricktavio, his half-elf companion. "Us bards have secret hiding places all over the valley."

"Tha's good," replied Khralis, taking a look over his shoulder to make sure his charge was out of earshot. "I didn'a much like that business in Valakee with the dolls that looked like her, y'know? Not a good situation for someone who's trying to remain incognito. I just hope me' partners can get that wine back to Kresk quickly - the sooner we've settled ourselves in the town, the better."

"I'm sure they will prove successful," encouraged Ricktavio. "But you really should have gone with them, master dwarf. I assure you that I am capable of protecting Iriyena on my own."

"Ach, it's no trouble a'tall," waved off Khralis, trying his best not to act nervous. "And, y'know, all that wine... There's no need for me ta be around all that... sweet tempting... " Khralis clasped his holy symbol while taking a deep instinctive draught from his waterskin.

Ricktavio shot Khralis a knowing glance. "Well, now that you mention it, I'm glad to have a cleric with such a measure of devotion at my side in case anything does go awry... Ah! Here we are. We'll be quite safe here, I assure you."

===

"There's the loading dock, to the north," pointed out Mia from the party's hiding place near the well and the outhouse. "The wine is all loaded up, just like Davian said. I can't see any movement inside the house."

"Looks like the coast is clear then," said Ken, bounding out into the field. "Let's grab this cart and get out of here!"

"I really think we should explore the main house before we go after the wine," suggested Joslyn, as the rest of the party followed the headstrong barbarian. "These evildoers have to be stopped for the good of everyone in this valley."

"There you go again with that self-righteous holy warrior talk!" dismissed Ken. "Can we just stick to one mission here without getting sidetracked all the time?"

"I'm with Ken," agreed Mia. "Our responsibility now is not to everyone in the valley, it's to Iriyena, who we've gone great lengths to protect on this journey. If we get ourselves killed by a bunch of random druids before we can deliver her to safety, what good can we do for anyone else?"

"On the other hand, Ken," Brother Owen shot a glance to his longtime traveling companion. "You wouldn't want to spend the rest of your time in Barovia with no wine supply, would you?"

"Listen, if it takes us longer to get out of Barovia than it takes us to consume three barrels of wine, getting drunk will be the least of our problems!" rejoined Ken as he reached the front of the loading dock.

"Okay, we can start with the cart," conceded Joslyn. "But I don't like the looks of this situation. We haven't seen any sign of these druids and we..."

"Uh, fellows," offered Perri. "Care to take a look at the vines?"

The adventurers looked and saw the same dry, desiccated plants as before, but now they were moving across the field! Five clumps of man-high creatures that seemed to be made out of twigs suddenly became animated and were chasing our heroes towards the house.

"Uh, I think we should probably get inside the house!" yelled Joslyn, clutching her newly acquired holy symbol as a shimmering field appeared and surrounded her with protective magic.

"I'm on it," cried Mia, bounding up the front steps. The lock on the door fell easily to her expertise with thieves' tools, but when she tried to push the door open, it wouldn't budge. "Ugh, it's no good! Barred from the inside!"

"The druids must have set a trap for us!" reasoned Ken with grim determination. "We'll have to fight our way out. Cover me!"

"Cover you? What..." But it was too late for Joslyn's protestations: Ken had already grabbed ahold of the wine-laden cart and tried to pull with all his might, just as the first wave of blights crested the low hill in front of the winery. But for all the barbarian's macho straining, he couldn't get the cart to budge.

"Oh man, I must still be kind of groggy from when I ate that dream pastry right before bed the other night and it kept me from sleeping," sighed Ken, as the blights advanced threateningly close. "And from when I got knocked unconscious by the pack of dire wolves that ambushed us on the way to Valakee yesterday. And..."

"Not to worry, comrade," interrupted Brother Owen, jumping down into the loading dock. "We will fight these abominations together!" The cleric's warhammer came crashing down on the nearest twig blight, but despite quite a forceful blow, the plant remained upright and aggressive.

"Paper, huh?" screamed Ken as he flew into a murderous rage. "I don't know what kind of arts and crafts supplies this Davian is familiar with," quipped Ken, as a slash from his dual swords failed to bring down another blight, "but these things are more like steel than paper!"

"We've got to find another way in!" cried Perri as the next wave of blights advanced ever closer.

"This way," pointed Joslyn, who appeared to have found a path. "Around the cart and to the right!"

"Go check it out, we'll cover you!" shouted Mia, as her friends stormed down the hallway. The rogue took cover behind the wine barrels and hurled a magical mote of fire at one of the nearest blights, which also failed to go down.

The first wave of blights continued clashing with Ken and Brother Owen, but the farther group did not advance. Instead, they thrust out their branchy protrusions, out of which a flurry of thorny needles flew through the air, puncturing the three exposed adventurers like so many leaf-fletched arrows.

"Great, now they have ranged attacks?" remarked Brother Owen, finally smashing the nearest blight to smithereens with his warhammer. "Their thorns will blot out the sun!"

"Then we will do yard work in the shade!" rejoined Ken, who sliced up his blight with his swords as more blights appeared on the horizon.

===

Meanwhile, what Joslyn and Perri saw when they opened the double doors leading to the main building was little better than the situation outside. Taking up most of the room were three large vats, presumably designed to hold wine. Above them in the rafters, sat a rather large flock of ravens, regarding the room dispassionately. More concerning was the fact that this room also contained twig blights skittering across the floor, although each individual creature was about half the size of the ones outside.

But the most troubling presence in the room was a wild-haired woman, standing on a catwalk above the vats, pouring a bottle of syrupy liquid into one of the open ones. When our heroes entered the room, she snapped her attention to the door, pulled out a quarterstaff that immediately began to magically transform into a giant thorny cudgel, and charged, the baby blights moving along with her.

Joslyn quickly closed the doors and put her back to them. "No good!" she shouted to the party. "More blights and a druid in there. Why don't we check upstairs?"

"Get to the high ground, good idea!" agreed Perri, as he made his way to the left of the doors towards a large spiral staircase that led both up to the second story and down to the cellar. But as soon as he made it to the top, he spotted another druid, this one with flaming red hair and a scraggly beard, desperately clutching a black wooden staff. "Eep!" piped Perri. "There's another one up here!"

"Perri!" shouted Joslyn, as she charged up the stairs to help her diminutive companion.

===

TEMP IMAGE OF BROTHER OWEN
"So Joslyn found the druids in the house," repeated Mia, as the second wave of blights entered the melee. "Just as we feared, there's nowhere to make a stand."

"Maybe, but I'd rather try my luck with them than with this damned horde!" cried Brother Owen, as the next group of blights lined for another volley.

"Screw it, we stand our ground!" shouted Ken, swinging wildly while getting pierced by more flying thorns. "We have to protect the wine barrels!"

"Ken, our lives are more important than this wine!" counseled Brother Owen. "I'm taking you inside now!"

"Go, I can cover you!" yelled Mia. "Once we're all in the hallway, we can barricade the door leading to the loading dock and... AUGH!" But Mia's strategizing was cut short by another volley of thorns that brought her to her knees.

"No, you'll never make it like that," reassured Brother Owen as he spoke a word of healing to bind Mia's wounds. "You go first. Get inside and stay safe. We'll be right behind you."

"Thank you, Brother Owen," said Mia warmly, as she sprang into the hallway. "Perhaps we can make our stand in the cellar..." And down the spiral stairs went Mia, just as Perri and Joslyn went in the opposite direction.

===

TEMP IMAGE OF KEN BARBIE
"Now it's our turn, comrade," said Brother Owen to Ken Barbie as the two stood back to back, desperately hacking at the ever-increasing group of blights. "Get inside! They are too many!"

"Screw that, we can take 'em!" raged Ken as he downed another blight. "These twigs will never drop me!" But no sooner did he finish his boast then the last two groups of blights unleashed their hail of thorns. A cacophony of sickening thuds as the needles sunk into the cart, the barrels, and back wall mixed with the sound of tearing armor and rending flesh as both adventurers felt the sting.

"Enough of this! It's suicide to stay out here! You have to get inside!" implored Brother Owen. "If not for yourself or me... do it for Barbara's memory."

The look of rage in Ken's eyes subsided and turned to a mix of sadness and pure exhaustion. He solemnly nodded at his companion and the two of them turned into the hallway. But just as Brother Owen turned around to try and close the door to the loading dock against the oncoming horde of blights, the double doors to the room with the vats burst open and the wild-haired druidess leapt into the hallway. Seeing two new enemies approaching to her left, she took a deep breath and opened her mouth as if to let out a wild shriek. But instead of her voice, a thunderous boom emanated from the spellcaster's mouth, accompanied by a wave of force that staggered Brother Owen and pushed Ken ten feet back into the loading dock. Ken's head cracked painfully against the cart, and he slumped to the ground, just as the blights started to overwhelm him.

"Ken!" shrieked Brother Owen, as he charged back into the fray. "I'm here for you..." But just then, another volley of thorns filled the sky and pierced the bold cleric's neck and chest.

Ken glanced over at his bleeding friend, then around at the approaching blights, and then finally out into the mist-shrouded sun. "My beloved Barbara... I'll be with you soon..."

The druidess watched with satisfaction as her blights finished off the two adventurers, then sprang nimbly up the stairs.

===

At the bottom of the spiral staircase, Mia noticed that the temperature dropped significantly when she entered the cellar. But that wasn't the only thing she noticed: in the middle of the cellar, which seemed to stretch the entire length of the room above, partially obscured by a large wine rack, stood a multitude of figures. Most of them looked like the large blights from outside, but one of them was clearly a human, wearing a full set of antlers, and muttering as if beginning to cast a spell. Before he could finish, however, Mia turned on her heel and started back up the stairs.

===

Meanwhile, when Joslyn reached the top of the stairs, she saw the bearded redhead druid crouching next to a large winch and pulley system, still babbling incoherently and clutching at his staff protectively. She noticed curiously that he made no move to attack either adventurer, so she decided to press the attack herself.

"Get behind me, Perri!" urged Joslyn as she interposed herself between the gnome and his enemy. But as she advanced menacingly towards the frantic druid, a disturbing sight caught Joslyn's eye. This room was situated directly above the loading dock, and most of the floor was open to allow the winch to load barrels of wine onto the cart. But at this moment, the architecture gave Joslyn a unique and terrifying vantage point into the last dying moments of Ken Barbie and Brother Owen. She watched in horror as their motionless bodies continued to be scratched and clawed by the blights.

"Ken! Owen!" she yelled, as much from shock as to inform her remaining companions what happened. "They're... they're both dead!"

But she didn't have long to process the moment as new commotion erupted behind her. Preceded by a maniacal cackle, the female druid leapt to the top of the staircase and took a vicious swing at Perri with her magically-enhanced shillelagh. As Joslyn turned and charged to the wizard's aid, Perri launched a magical attack of his own. At a word from the gnome's mouth, the confused druidess halted her attack and threw out her hands to feel around for her surroundings.

"I thought a little magical blindness would do the trick." Perri smiled back at Joslyn and stepped aside with a flourish. "She's all yours."

But Perri was wrong about that part, because just then, Mia bounded up the spiral staircase, slicing through a baby blight with her rapier on the way. Seeing a disoriented woman in front of her, swinging her staff blindly, just ahead of a furiously charging Joslyn, Mia acted fast. After making one last thrust with her rapier, causing the helpless druidess to spin around towards the source of the attack, Mia dropped down on all fours and went completely silent. At that moment, Joslyn appeared behind her enemy and pushed. Tripping over the prostrate form of Mia, the female druid tumbled down the stairs with a shriek, and collapsed to the ground with a broken neck.

===

"Now it's your turn," Joslyn muttered as she turned to glare at the babbling druid on the other side of the room. Confronted with three revenge-crazed adventurers, the redheaded druid did the only thing that made sense: he fled. With Joslyn slashing at his heels, and connecting with a swing, the druid grasped hold of the rope attached to the winch and swung down into the loading bay, the blights stepping aside to let him pass, but then resuming their attacks on the corpses of Ken and Brother Owen.

"What's he holding there?" queried Mia, also noticing the protective manner in which he coddled his curious staff.

"Who knows, but we can't let him get away with it," suggested Perri. "Quick, this way!" The gnome reached up and grabbed the handle of a door, which he was reasonably sure led to the catwalk above the vats in the large room, based on his knowledge of geometry. "We can cut off his escape this way!"

Perri burst through the door, which did in fact lead where he suspected, and saw the druid making his way across the lower floor, the ravens still perched ominously above. Tossing a powdered rhubarb leaf into the air with an arcane gesture, Perri conjured up a a shimmering green arrow that streaked toward his fleeing enemy and burst into a spray of acid. The druid shouted in agony and stumbled through the door on the far side of the room, but when Joslyn and Mia followed, they found pursuit impossible: the swarm of baby blights had climbed the steps leading up to the catwalk, preventing their progress.

"Joslyn, can you hold these things off?" asked Mia. "I'm going to see if I can recover that staff." Leaping off the catwalk, Mia deftly scampered across the vats of wine, just out of reach of the grasping baby blights. As she jumped from the last vat, she heard one final gurgle from the druid, followed by a dull thud.

As Mia rounded the corner, the blights from outside streaming in to protect their master, she came upon the acid-eaten body of the dead druid, still clutching his precious staff. As soon as Mia pried it loose and held it in her hands, she could tell it was a magical item of tremendous power: the dark spongy wood seemed to pulse with foul nature magic and the stench coming off its pale leaves turned Mia's stomach.

"Uh, Mia?" shouted Joslyn above the sound of branches scraping across the floor, "What's going on down there? We've got blights pouring in from outside now!" Mia turned to see the full-grown blights joining their half-size brethren advancing menacingly from behind. Just then, the antlered druid from the cellar burst up an identical spiral staircase on the other side of the room, putting him and his own army of blights directly in front of Mia. Surrounded on all sides and with no other options, Mia took the staff in both hands, raised it up, and brought it down hard over her knee.

When the wood cracked and splintered, it produced a deafening, otherworldly scream. The ravens squawked and flapped madly as the sound filled the room and emanated out through the fields. Time seemed to slow down for a brief second. Then with a cold gust of wind, all the blights in the room stiffened and fell to the ground, each one into a neat pile of twigs.

===

"Mia, you did it!" cried Perri, victoriously. "The blights are gone!"

The antlered druid understandably wasn't as excited. For a moment, he hopelessly sifted through the remains of one of his former allies, then turned with a look of horror at the heroes who had defeated his forces.

"YOU!" shouted Joslyn, pointing forcefully at the lone remaining druid as she and Perri raced down the stairs toward their ally. "Throw down your weapon and give up! We have no wish for any further bloodshed!"

With a panicked look in his eyes, the druid waved his hands, causing magical weeds and vines to sprout from the ground and grasp at our heroes before turning and running down the hall. Joslyn and Mia broke free and pursued, but Perri found himself restrained by the plants -- although that didn't stop him from launching a magic missile around the corner at his enemy. The projectile struck home, slowing the druid down long enough for the two charging women to close the distance and attack.

"It didn't have to be this way," pled Joslyn, hacking at the druid's knees to impede his progress as Mia dashed in front of him, blocking his escape.

"I'm glad he ran," said Mia grimly, as she plunged her rapier into the druid's neck. "This is for Ken and Owen."

Sunday, November 13, 2016

All-Rookie Teams 2016

It's been ten days since the conclusion of the World Series, and it took me that long to finish my aforementioned SWP by Teams project for the 2016 year. This has resulted in a 32-page document (one page per team, one snazzy title page, and one bonus page showing how many fantasy points the various postseason MVPs accrued during their award-worthy series), which will quite likely be seen by no one but me. But throughout the offseason, I will publish various excerpts taken from this document, such as projects like Divisional All-Stars, and this list of rosters made up of the best 2016 rookies from either league. Let's start with the National League, of which the World Series winning Chicago Cubs are a member.

The most impressive hitter among the entire 2016 rookie crop is obviously Silver Slugger Corey Seager, who led his Dodgers to an NLCS berth, while also leading their offense in fantasy points. But what's even more impressive about this league's rookies in particular is that the next two overall scoring rookies wouldn't even show up on this list if I didn't add a DH: Aledmys Diaz beat out Trevor Story for the second string shortstop job by just a single point (1,510 to 1,509, if you don't want to look over at the numbers). The reason I chose the breakout SS of the Cardinals over that of the Rockies is because of the season-ending thumb injury suffered by Story at the end of July. While Trea Turner was just slightly below the above-mentioned pair of shortstops in terms of overall points, no offensive player in all of baseball who exceeded 40 plate appearances could match Turner's 19.4 points per game. Turner's multi-positional eligibility (he also qualified at 2B, but was a SS through most of his minor league career) could also open up some playing time for Padres CF Travis Jankowski (863, 6.6), who finally provides the Gemini Astrology Fantasy team with a starting center field option.

Without Story making the cut for this lineup, the Rockies' lone representative is David Dahl, who could force a trade issue in Colorado's crowded outfield. Speaking of the outfield, Brandon Drury played more games in the corner outfield than at third base, but his 29 games at the hot corner are more than enough to qualify. Cleanup hitter Tommy Joseph put up good enough numbers to unseat face of the franchise Ryan Howard at first base for the Phillies, and that's even without holding the platoon advantage the majority of the time. Meanwhile, the Padres have a team-leading two players in this batting order, both of whom are rather opportunistic starters. Ryan Schimpf took over second base when Cory Spangenberg went down with an injury, while the door for Alex Dickerson to take over left field was forced open with the trade of Melvin Upton Jr. to the Blue Jays. And while Willson Contreras was only one of three qualifying catchers for those world champion Cubs, but he was the best performer of the three and most likely to stick behind the plate long term.

Kenta Maeda's status as an MLB rookie is a bit deceptive, as he had eight strong seasons in Japan's NPB before coming stateside (despite the fact that he's only 28 years old). That's only two years younger than this year's most effective rookie starter in terms of points per game, Junior Guerra, who came out of nowhere to form half of a solid rookie tandem with Zach Davies atop Milwaukee's rotation. Jon Gray is one of a number of young pieces that will hope to end Colorado's long period of pitching futility, along with honorable mention for this list Tyler Anderson (887 points, 47.5 PPG). And of course we've already seen Steven Matz perform on the sport's biggest stage in last year's World Series, but a bone spur in his elbow prevented him from putting up a full season's worth of numbers.

If you're hung up on the whole Japanese league import thing and don't consider Maeda to be a "true rookie," the next starter on the rookie depth chart would be longtime Pirates prospect Jameson "Tie-OWN" Taillon (935, 51.9). If you have the same concerns over new Cardinals closer Seung Hwan Oh, who had 11 seasons as a star closer in the KBO and NPB before coming stateside, you need look no further than Carlos Estevez (607, 9.6), who closed games for the Rockies while Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino dealt with various injuries. Other guys on this list with closer experience in 2016 include Mauricio Cabrera, who earned six saves in Atlanta's unsettled Jim Johnson/Arodys Vizcaino situation, and Jake Barrett, who had the second-most save opportunities for the Diamondbacks after Brad Ziegler was traded, but only picked up four saves in the process. Seth Lugo and Alex Reyes both look like they will develop into effective starters, but they were hit with the ambiguous "P" label because they racked up more relief appearances than starts in 2016.

Sticking with pitchers, Detroit's Michael Fulmer (late of the Mets from the Yoenis Cespedes trade) probably has the best shot at AL Rookie of the Year honors, but as a whole the junior circuit's rookie starters were a lot less effective than their NL counterparts. That's not to say there weren't some heralded names in the bunch: in addition to Fulmer, Sean Manaea and Blake Snell were also on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list heading into the season, compared to only two National League starters, Jon Gray and Stephen Matz... or three if you count Taillon. Meanwhile Joe Musgrove did make an appearance on Houston's list of top 30 prospects prior to 2016, while Ariel Miranda come out of nowhere to put up big numbers following a trade from Baltimore to Seattle.

Speaking of Seattle, Edwin Diaz filled in so admirably for an injured Steve Cishek in early August, that the rookie took over the Mariners' closer role over the final two months of the season. He headlines an AL rookie bullpen that doesn't have a weak link in the bunch. Ryan Dull was so adept at preventing inherited runners from scoring (only 13% of whom scored on him in 2016) that I suggested he use "Enter Strand Man" as his entrance music with runners on base. Mychal Givens blossomed into the top setup man in front of arguably the game's top closer. Michael Feliz didn't have a great ERA, but his ability to pitch multiple innings drove up his fantasy points. And the Rangers' rookie tandem of Matt Bush and Tony Barnette should solidify the back end of their pen for years to come. Speaking of multiple innings, the two "P's" on this list have very different career trajectories. Dylan Bundy will absolutely transition into Baltimore's rotation - he was used in the bullpen this year to limit his innings - while Chris Devenski was used as a spot starter / long reliever and in my opinion has the best shot at turning into the next Andrew Miller. You heard it here first! Maybe!

There are some impressive bats in this AL rookies lineup, but the main force here is obviously catcher Gary Sanchez. It's almost too bad that he squandered his rookie eligibility on a season where he only played 50 games, because if he put up production even approaching his 17.4 PPG over his first full season, he would probably garner consideration for AL MVP in addition to handily winning the RoY award. Nomar Mazara jumped all over the opportunity afforded by Shin-Soo Choo's early season injury in Texas by putting up the most overall offensive points by a 2016 AL rookie. After Mazara and his German corner outfield mate Max Kepler, White Sox leadoff hitter Tim Anderson has the next-most impressive prospect pedigree in this lineup, who joins with Trea Turner to form a very strong young core for the Cancer Crabs Astrology team. Ryon Healy's emergence at 3B for the Athletics was a big reason why Danny Valencia was just shipped to the Mariners yesterday. For the Royals, Whit Merifield had a rather clear path to the team's 2B position (at least until Raul Mondesi finishes his development), but Cheslor Cuthbert was plugged in at 3B as an injury stopgap for Mike Moustakas. Jefry Marte also played some 3B and LF for the Angels. And CF Tyler Naquin is the only rookie on this list to play for the AL champion Indians.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Thoughts about the 2016 World Series

Upon completion of the 2016 World Series, when Joe Maddon's Cubs orchestrated an improbable comeback against World Series legend Terry Francona's Indians, I felt a bit like C-3PO in this scene from The Empire Strikes Back:


The joke here, of course, is that up until this moment, Threepio had done nothing but spew criticism at R2-D2 as he tried to unlock the doors and aid in the Rebels' escape - much like how I reacted to seemingly every one of Joe Maddon's pitching changes from Game 3 onward. G3: Justin Grimm in the 5th with the bases loaded? G4: Pulling John Lackey after just 84 pitches? G6: Bringing in Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning for the second time in two days? (For the record, the G5 decision was defensible, and perhaps the only way the Cubs hold on to a 3-2 lead - but then to use him the next day when up 7-3, and then to leave him in after he sprained his ankle covering first, and then AGAIN after the Cubs tacked on another two runs!?) G7: Bringing in Jon Lester, the guy who will never throw to a base, with a runner on in the 5th? And then trying to use Chapman for multiple innings for the third game in a row!? You have a bullpen full of specialized relievers! Why not use some of them!?

But somehow, the Cubs prevailed, cashing in on a best-in-baseball 103-win season, and finally getting the 108-year-old monkey (or goat?) off their backs. By the way, when I was explaining the legend of the Billy Goat Curse to my wife last night, I immediately thought of Black Phillip from last year's epic frontier horror film The Witch. Goats are capable of some nasty things: it was true in the 17th century, it was true in 1908, and it's true in 2016! The only thing capable of removing their influence was the actions of two of baseball's most famous curse breakers: Theo Epstein, the baseball operations executive responsible for building both the 2004 Red Sox and the 2016 Cubs, and Terry Francona, the manager of the aforementioned Red Sox team back in '04 (and in 2013 when they won again), but also of the opponent of this year's Cubs team. So win or lose, Tito will always be remembered fondly by followers of baseball superstitions.

Bill Murray wouldst like to live deliciously...

One could argue that Francona's pitching choices did as much to help the Cubs as Maddon's choices did to nearly sabotage them. I know his starting rotation has dealt with some devastating injuries towards the end of the season, but asking ace Corey Kluber to pitch on short rest for the third time in the postseason must have been too much for him to handle. Don't get me wrong, I still think Kluber was the best option for Game 7, especially given how dominant he had been throughout the rest of the playoffs. I was among those who thought that Chicago was surely done when I saw that Cleveland's three-man rotation would send Kluber to the hill in the potential deciding game after they fell behind 3-1. But it was the overuse of relief ace Andrew Miller that might have been the final nail in the coffin for Francona's club. The more a batter sees of a pitcher, the more familiar he gets with the hurler's stuff and strategy, while the batter's game plan remains the same all throughout: see the ball, hit the ball. Miller was decidedly brilliant for most of the series, but after his fourth appearance of ~2 innings each, the Cubs were able to get a bead on him, and he gave up a couple of crucial runs in Game 7. I know hindsight is 20/20 and I've heard that Miller's usage could very well revolutionize how relief pitchers are evaluated and used. But over-reliance on one arm is never the answer: just ask how Aroldis Chapman felt after giving up that game-tying home run to Rajai Davis.

I was vocally in favor of the Cubs winning this World Series - not because of the racially insensitive nature of Cleveland's team name (although I do think it was a bit of a dirty trick for Commissioner Rob Manfred to call out the Indians on this point WHILE THEY'RE PLAYING IN THE WORLD SERIES), but rather because I was ready for this Cubs World Series drought narrative to end. A friend of mine took the opposite stance: if the Cubs don't have their "lovable losers" identity, what do they have going for them? But the problem is that ever since Theo Epstein's rebuilding effort started to bear fruit, the Cubs aren't "losers" anymore: they've won 200 games over the past two seasons. And winners aren't lovable unless they win it all. And now that they have won, they can start adopting a new franchise identity, albeit one that casual Cubs fans won't necessarily like that much. To paraphrase Harvey Dent from The Dark Knight: You either die a lovable loser, or you live long enough to see yourself become a hated dynasty.

I have friends who are Indians fans, and I felt bad about actively rooting for their sadness just for the sake of a silly baseball superstition. But think of what kind of narrative we would have had if Cleveland held on to win the championship. Sure, it would have been an inspiring story about overcoming injuries and using relief pitchers creatively and platooning outfielders as though a lefty hitter has never gotten a hit off a lefty pitcher. But at bottom, the Indians would have become just another spoiler in the Cubs' much longer and more storied history of futility. And I wouldn't wish the ire of the north side of Chicago on any baseball fan...

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

SWP by World Series Team 2016

I had resolved not to start earnest work on my SWP by Team project, my longest standing post-baseball-season tradition, until after the World Series. But, like the overeager kid on Christmas Eve, I've decided to open one present, which in this case is completing the entries for the two World Series participants, the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians. I'll present these below, but first a few guidelines. These lists do not represent a given team's most current roster, nor even necessarily its most efficient lineup construction; they represent a team's best fantasy baseball performers over the course of the whole season, as judged by the now-defunct Small World Points (SWP) system. In the case of these two clubs, the lists mostly resemble each team's current World Series roster... MOSTLY. It'll be the differences I'll focus on here, starting with the team that has home field advantage.

I arrange the offensive part of these lists based on where each player spent the most time in his team's batting order. The first 75+% of Cleveland's lineup at left is just about identical to the batting order that manager Terry Francona trots out against left-handed pitching. Against righties, power hitting DH Carlos Santana shifts to the leadoff spot, while Rajai Davis loses his lineup spot to midseason acquisition Coco Crisp, who doesn't show up on this list because he didn't accrue the requisite 200 plate appearances after coming to the Indians. Davis, who led the American League in stolen bases despite being heavily platooned throughout the season, has two positions associated with his line for the following reason: if you look at his personal tally of games played in 2016, he has more games in CF than in LF, but if you look at Cleveland's positional game log, Davis has more starts in LF than any other Indians player. Rookie Tyler Naquin got the majority of Indians starts in CF, but he too has been platooned during the postseason, ceding playing time against lefties to another midseason acquisition, Brandon Guyer. Yan Gomes was one of three Indians catchers to log 50 games at the position, but he's been replaced by Roberto Perez as the playoff starter.

Followers of the playoffs will note that the Indians have been using a three-man rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin throughout the postseason, with one exception: a Ryan Merritt start in Game 5 of the ALCS. The rotation above is organized by innings pitched, which means that Cleveland's three-man rotation is made up of their top three busiest pitchers in 2016, but not necessarily their top fantasy scorers. If you go by points per game, the Indians are using starters ranked one, four, and five. It's even more impressive considering that the Tribe has made it as far as they have with just starters one, four, and five (when going by points per game), since Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar both went down with injuries late in the year and have been deemed unable to start in the playoffs (although Salazar has come out of the bullpen for one inning so far in the World Series). All five relief pitchers listed (minimum 40 innings pitched or 40 appearances) appear on Francona's World Series roster, and curiously enough, all five are slated to go through the arbitration process prior to next season. However, you have to look all the way down at the bottom to see Cleveland's most valuable reliever Andrew Miller, whose line is different than all the others, for reasons I will explain later.

Now onto the Cubs roster, the offensive side of which is very nearly true to Joe Maddon's typical World Series lineup. One thing you'll notice right off the bat is the presence of a DH, despite this being Chicago's National League team. I've given NL teams access to a DH spot since I started doing this project (after the 2000 season) because it made it slightly more fair to compare offensive totals of teams across leagues if each team has nine offensive positions in the lineup. For NL teams, the "DH" is really shorthand for "most-used pinch hitter," or "small half of a platoon," or "someone who lost/gained regular playing time at some point during the year." Javier Baez is listed as Chicago's DH, despite having played all over the infield in 2016, pushing Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant to the outfield when Baez needed playing time. During the playoffs, it's been Baez at 2B and Zobrist in LF, which would normally push Jorge Soler out of his lineup spot, except that he's been taking some starts away from Jason Heyward in RF due to the latter's total offensive futility this year.

They say pitching wins in the playoffs, and this Cubs team has one of the most impressive starting rotations, one through five, in recent memory, so it's not hard to see why pundits predicted this team making a deep run. Going back to the Indians and their injury woes for a bit, imagine how the Cubs would fare if their rotation options were limited to Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel (although all three did outscore CLE's three-man rotation). The bullpen is not nearly as impressive on paper, but remember that Hector Rondon's fantasy point totals were capped when he was replaced as primary save-earner with the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman (again, more on the italicized lines later on). Interestingly enough, Chicago's top middle reliever in terms of points per game (Trevor Cahill) was left off the playoff roster, even given that his past experience as a starter allows him to comfortably pitch multiple innings, which is definitely a trendy attribute for relievers this postseason. Filling the role of Cubs "long man" is another midseason acquisition, lefty Mike Montgomery.

And now a word about the two italicized relief pitchers at the bottom of each team's list. The "^" symbol in front of each one's name denotes that they were acquired during the season, which in these two players' cases kept them from reaching the requisite 40 IP / 40 G relevance-threshold necessary to appear in these lists. However, there are extenuating circumstances that merits the inclusion of each. As I mentioned above, when the Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman, they immediately placed him in the closer role, resulting in him pitching in 18 of his new team's 53 total save opportunities (or 34%). Compare that to Hector Rondon's 23 SvOpps (43%), so this looks like a co-closer situation that needs to be reflected on the list. In Andrew Miller's case, he shows up in Baseball-Reference's list of top 12 Indians players by WAR, earning almost as many Wins Above Replacement in 29 innings pitched (1.6) as Josh Tomlin in 174 IP (1.7), so how could I NOT include a performance of that magnitude? Plus, the fact that both of these pitchers served as closers for the New York Yankees in 2016 links these two World Series participants in an intriguing way.