NL STARTER 1
Zack Greinke
Greinke was one of only three players to crack the elusive 3,000 point fantasy threshold in 2015 - the other two being Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta and Greinke's former Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw - and he did it by leading the league in ERA (1.66), WHIP (0.844), and winning percentage (19-3, .864). Naturally this bravura performance set him up for an enormous payoff in Free Agency, but few could have predicted a quite literally sport-altering six year, $206.5 million contract from the Diamondbacks. Greinke has been excellent in the recent past, averaging 15 wins per year, a 2.99 ERA, and a 4.01 strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2008, when he became a full-time starter for good. Even if he can keep up that level of production over his age 32-38 seasons, I still don't know if those numbers are worth $30mm per year, or if they'll be enough to catapult a sub-.500 team into contention.
NL STARTER 2
John Lackey
Lost in the shuffle of an excellent rotation without one dominant ace, John Lackey was actually the Cardinals' highest-scoring starter in 2015, quietly putting up a 2,000 point season, the second of his career. He'll now act as the Cubs' number 3 starter for the next two years, behind the aforementioned Arrieta and lefty Jon Lester. Lackey only got two years because of his age (he turned 37 just before the 2015 World Series) and because he overperformed his Fielding Independent Pitching score by 0.80 points (2.77 ERA, 3.57 FIP), but for those two years he'll provide solid rotation production and an inspiring veteran presence for a competitive team.
NL STARTER 3
Johnny Cueto
Speaking of the 2015 World Series, the Royals' path to victory in those proceedings was aided by this next starter on the list. It's been well documented how Cueto struggled following his midseason acquisition from the Reds (2.62 ERA, 0.934 WHIP before vs. 4.76, 1.451 after), but given that his combined 3.44 ERA in 2015 was more in line with his 3.30 career mark (all but 13 starts of which came in the National League), it's clear that the Giants felt they knew what they were getting when they signed him for six years and $130 million. Either way, a Madison Bumgarner/Johnny Cueto duo atop San Francisco's rotation will strike fear in the hearts of NL West teams for many years to come.
NL STARTER 4
Shelby Miller
Speaking of pitchers with inconsistent 2015 seasons, here's Shelby Miller, who went 5-5 with a 2.38 ERA in the first half, followed by a dismal 1-12 mark, but with a still respectable 3.83 ERA. He's still young (he'll start 2016 at 25 years old) and has tremendous promise, which is one of the reasons why the Diamondbacks overpaid to pry him loose from the Braves (they sent fellow All-Acquired teammate Ender Inciarte, top 100 prospect Aaron Blair, and 2015 first round draft pick Dansby Swanson to Atlanta in the swap). But hopefully slotting into the rotation behind the $200 million dollar man Zack Greinke will help keep some of the pressure off Miller as he enters his arbitration years.
NL STARTER 5
Mike Leake
As I was writing a draft of this post, news broke that the Dodgers had signed Scott Kazmir to a bizarrely structured three-year deal, but given that I already put together this infographic featuring Leake, he's going to get the nod. Anyway, Leake is younger by nearly four years, has a significantly better durability record, and even a better career ERA than Kazmir (3.88 to 3.96), although he fields a worse FIP (4.21 to 3.97). Leake also comes with a more stable contract situation (five years at $80 million, plus a mutual option for a sixth season), not that that matters for our purposes. He'll enjoy pitching against the Cubs almost as much as the Cardinals will enjoy having his career .212 batting average in their lineup every fifth day.
NL STARTER HONORABLE MENTIONS
Scott Kazmir
Jeff Samardzija
Jon Niese
NL CLOSER
Jason Motte
As extraordinary as the American League's bullpen additions have been so far this offseason, the NL's have been inversely underwhelming. Motte was a very capable closer for exactly one season (2012), in which he saved 42 games at age 30 for the Cardinals, but he followed that up with missing all of the next season and most of the following one due to injury. He increased his stock significantly with a one year deal with the Cubs in 2015, despite finishing the season on the disabled list, but the Rockies liked what they saw enough to give him a two year deal. Then again, they also gave two years to Chad Qualls, so take that as you will.
NL RELIEVER 2
Shawn Kelley
It might surprise you to learn that Shawn Kelley's strikeout totals have eclipsed his innings pitched totals in every season dating back to 2012. But it wasn't until 2015 with the Padres that he was able to combine the K's with superior run prevention - he fielded a 2.45 ERA (2.57 FIP) after averaging a 4.10 mark (but with a 3.39 FIP) in the three previous years with the Mariners and the Yankees. The Nationals took notice and signed him to a three year deal, where he'll hope not to get into any shoving matches with Jonathan Papelbon in Washington's bullpen.
NL RELIEVER 3
Adam Warren
The presence of Warren on this list clearly shows the difference between the two leagues as far as acquiring bullpen help is concerned. While Warren is a competent swingman, which is an important component of any successful roster, the American League is able to trot out superb closer after superb closer, and that was even before the Yankees' shocking trade for Aroldis Chapman. Let's just say that if I do another All-Acquired World Series simulation project, the NL starters will have to pitch very deep into their games.
NL RELIEVER HONORABLE MENTIONS
Yusmeiro Petit
Drew Pomeranz
Jim Johnson
Chad Qualls
Oliver Perez
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