All-Acquired Teams 2015

A writer named Susan Orlean once opined that (and I paraphrase) people care passionately about things because it whittles the world down to a more manageable size. Or at least her character said something like that in the movie Adaptation. Either way, I've always felt that way about my relationship with the sport of baseball. Also the relationships with, you know, my family and loved ones and all that. But baseball in particular as it affects this post. Then a music teacher I recently met suggested you should always make time to do the things you love. Again excluding family, one thing I love to do is construct fantasy MLB lineups/rosters out of players who have changed teams during the offseason.

In order to make the best of all possible versions of these rosters, I maintain a database with information on the stats of a great deal of baseball players. I won't say it includes every player who will make a meaningful contribution in 2015. But I will say that it's anyone who made a statistical contribution in 2014, anyone on a team's current 40-man roster, and anyone on a team's current list of non-roster invitees. Also any players caught in "DFA Limbo" at the time of the last update, which for the numbers I'm using now will be 2/18/15, the first day pitchers and catchers started reporting.

These particular rosters - let's call them the AL and NL All-Acquired 2015 Teams - take the form of 25-man (or Active) rosters, because that's how many players are on a baseball team. I created them by organizing all 550+ players who changed teams so far by league, position, and MLB.com fantasy rank, and picked what I thought would be the most effective lineups. A big part of this database is how it's color-coded, and my favorite color to see on these types of documents at this time of the year is yellow. That's because on my lists, a yellow highlight on a player's name means that player changed teams during the most recent/current offseason. By their natures, these rosters will be comprised only of "yellow" players.

But the first and last name of a player are only two of the 20+ columns on my list (only a sample of which are presented below). Seeing as it was built using the incomparable Microsoft Excel, making an abundance of sortable columns is pretty darn easy. You'll see them spelled out at the top of the screengrab below, and I'll say a little more about some of them after the list itself. Let me just say here, so you don't have to figure it out while reading, that the first chunk of players is a projected lineup, the second is starting rotation, the third is bullpen, and the fourth is bench (or offensive bullpen, as I might start calling it). AL on top, NL on bottom, arbitrarily.

For the first time, I've decided to try and color-code column number 1 - the text of which shows to which team and organizational level the player belongs. What you see is a work in progress, but the idea was to give each position its own color profile. I have starting pitchers (or SP or 1) in red with relief ptichers (RP, 1.2 in my terminology) in orange, keeping pitchers in hot colors and position players in earth tones - blue for catcher, green for infield, brown for outfield. It might need a little tweaking before it can be useful for fantasy evaluation.

There's another color not pictured above: a dark sad gray for DH, but primary DH's without a secondary position are rare. Even Nelson Cruz and Billy Butler qualify for OF and IF, respectively, because they each managed at least 20 games in the field last year. Another thing to keep in mind for these lineups: I'm building them as I would a fantasy lineup, so if I were handed the reins to this AL team, I would tell Evan Gattis to polish up his catching gear and Hanley Ramirez (pictured above) to find some stronger rubber bands to hold his body together, because to maximize fantasy value, you have to take advantage of positional eligibility.

The reason Ramirez and Gattis are ranked so high relative to their actual hard cold hard 2014 statistics - which are represented in the Points column - is because they will have the opportunity to hit like left fielders but occupy the roster spots of SS and C, respectively. The idea being that they are both packed with offensive talent, but their defensive limitations could have been holding them back. Maybe the reason MLB.com is particularly high on Ramirez - he was the highest ranked player to change teams so far, according to column #2 - is because they remember the out-of-this-world success by another famous Boston outfielder named Ramirez...

The next-highest ranked player to change teams was the recipient of one of the most ludicrous contracts given out this winter. I say "one of" the most ludicrous, because even though payment on Max Scherzer's seven year deal will be going on for twice the length of the actual contract, the Marlins might STILL control Giancarlo Stanton after the Nats are done paying Scherzer. Incidentally, that seven year deal is abbreviated 7yr deal in my Contract column, which keeps track of what kind of and how long of a deal to which each player is currently signed. Stanton's contract would say 13*^yr ext, the symbols representing two different wrinkles in an out-of-the-ordinary option structure, and the ext short for extension, signifying that he shouldn't be shaded yellow this year.

The heterochromatic wonder was just one of three top-100 fantasy starters signed by NL teams this winter, joining Jon Lester and James Shields. By contrast, Jeff Samardzija was the only double-digit-ranked starter to change teams in the AL, but the junior circuit did add a top-100 reliever in David Robertson. Interestingly enough, both pitchers landed with the White Sox, who are most certainly making a push for the AL Central crown. Meanwhile, two of the NL All-Acquired starters will pitch for the Cubs (Jason Hammel joins Lester), who are making a similar push across town.

Shields joins a group of new Padres acquisitions that could fill an entire outfield. Matt Kemp's presence in CF is clearly fantasy motivated. Justin Upton will play with a new team, but unlike his brother Melvin (nee B.J.), he won't be playing under a new name. Those two could have been joined by Wil Myers if Jason Heyward wasn't projected to hit more like he was projected to hit last year - yet he didn't hit well last year and my fantasy bench was the thinner for it. However, if Myers ends up spending significant time at first base, he would definitely join the lineup over the current Michael Morse/Adam Lind situation. 2014 All-Star catcher Derek Norris is also in town, proving that Padres GM A.J. "This Is Madness, This Is" Preller is giving new meaning to the word "push" (as in for the NL West title).

Another significant acquisition in San Diego is actually the NL team's top-ranked relief pitcher, even though Brandon Morrow has a good shot at making the starting rotation if healthy. The fact that he's the top RP is a glaring reminder that no NL club signed a player who has an inside track to racking up saves in 2015. This could change, since Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano are still unsigned as of this writing, and in any case, it doesn't really matter except in the fantasy world that's based on categories. But in the fantasy world that's based on POINTS, it's important to remember that that even mediocre starters stand to be more effective than most middle relievers, so it's always good to pay attention to utility pitchers (what I sometimes refer to as P) like Morrow and Anthony DeSclafani and noted Cancerian Marco Estrada. If I ever take a stab at altering the point system that I've used for a decade and a half, I would consider knocking down the value of wins, losses, and saves while also potentially adding holds to celebrate more types of pitchers. I would also try to separate RBI and Runs scored on the offensive side, because it feels like we're counting the same thing twice, but that's another story.

Most of the above analysis will have been done in the Pos(ition) and Points columns on the left hand side, but as we (fashion) move to the right, we get some trivia and more color-coding. The Free Agency column predictably shows when a player is scheduled to hit the open market. Only cases that will be resolved after the current season have a color. Every group in the Sign column has a color, one of 12 distinct astrological possibilities. This and Birthdate exist only to feed my astrology baseball project, whereas the next two went into a Hometown project I attempted at the midseason mark last year. In the document I work from, I usually put the Contract column next to Free Agency - there's also a Salary column that hasn't been updated yet, which will be a mirror image of Cot's Baseball Contracts. The Notes column is a reminder of any roster-altering moves in which the player was involved between the end of the last World Series and the present, with info gathered primarily from official transactions pages and MLB Trade Rumors.

So there you have it: my strategy for getting the most enjoyment/information that I possibly can out of  the sport of baseball. I might try to plug these lineups into MLB 2014: The Show and play a mock World Series between the two leagues, since this is really the last year where the players in that particular game will be relevant. Maybe if I scrimp and save enough cash for an Elgato gaming capture device, I could post a highlight reel on the Internet. Or I could just go back to burying my face in my database until Opening Day.

Baseball Begins: Fantasy Rankings 2015

I have a confession to make: I don't understand MLB prospect rankings. I mean, I get the general principle that the lower the ranking, the better the player. But there's enough ambiguity that I'm not sure whether the top ranked prospects are the ones with the most impressive overall talent levels or the ones who are more likely to have great major league careers. For example, does Mark Appel (30) have worse stuff than Nationals farmhand Lucas Giolito (6), or are there questions about Houston's former #1 pick's ability to maintain his form in the long term? And because of the unique amount of time it takes for an amateur baseball player to make the leap to the majors, there is almost no correlation between a player's prospect ranking and that player's potential impact in the coming season. Another example, Jorge Soler (22) mashed the ball to the tune of a .903 OPS in a cup of coffee last year and is slated to be the Cubs' everyday right fielder, but he's ranked significantly lower than guys like Addison Russell (5) and Cory Seager (7), who have no clear path to the majors in 2015.

Don't get me wrong, I still keep up to date on MLB's prospect watch and dutifully enter the rankings in my 40-Man Roster Excel spreadsheets. But they don't provide nearly as much insight about what might actually happen in 2015 as the fantasy player rankings. I like using MLB.com's rating system not because I've done any extensive research to show that they're the most accurate, but I know they're kept up to date through Opening Day, they're easily sortable, and they come with nice visuals. I spent the last couple of days updating my above-mentioned document with all 830 players ranked by MLB.com, just in time for the first pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training. It's at this point in the baseball season that I like to first take stock of how every team is doing - hence all the document updating. Using this document, I plotted out each team's projected starting lineup and rotation, based on MLB's fantasy rankings, with an eye towards determining both the raw talent level of each team and also the average strength of each position.

Basically, for each team, I took the top five ranked starting pitchers, the top two ranked relief pitchers, and the highest ranked player from each position and added their ranks together. I then divided that total by the number of players on the team to get a per player average. I used this number to sort the table at left, which also mitigates the unfair advantage that NL teams receive due to the lack of the DH spot in their lineups. As you can see, both the total and the average measurements identify the Washington Nationals as the best team in baseball - not surprising given their three aces on the pitching staff and above average position players across the board. St. Louis is the only other team with an average player rank of less than 200, a level of excellence we should be used to from an organization that has won four straight division titles (and five of the last six). With the type of payroll the Dodgers have, it would be sad if they weren't among the top five teams, and Toronto has made enough high profile moves to look super impressive on paper. But I was really surprised by the presence of the Cleveland Indians, a team that finished above .500 last year but missed out on a wild card spot by four games. Maybe it wasn't such a stretch when David Schoenfield ranked the Tribe fourth in his offseason power rankings last week.

In addition to finding out average player rankings by team, the work I did also allows me to arrange the rankings by position. This amounts to a slightly more targeted version of a project I did last year, where I simply took the top 30 players in each position rather than fleshing out actual projected lineups. And because it's more targeted, perhaps the following analysis will say more about the status of each team's regular players. But first, let's take a look at just the average ranking broken down by position, in both list and graph form!

As was the case last year, good outfielders are the top players in the sport in terms of fantasy value. This is likely due to the fact that there are three times as many outfield spots as there are other spots on the diamond, so there's a wider net of players to choose from. Plus the lesser athletic necessity of playing the corner outfield spots compared to other positions, yadda yadda. Which brings up the point that these three outfield spots don't take into account center fielders, but I would chalk that up more to my lack of predictive ability than my willingness to lump the three positions together. Speaking of not lumping positions together, I separated the five starting pitchers in a way that I think makes sense, but we'll see shortly when I go position by position.


Starting Pitcher 1
Average: 105.6 (Alex Wood)
Median: 77 (Tyson Ross)
Range: 5 (Clayton Kershaw) - 429 (Jorge De La Rosa)

I put example players next to each rank for reference purposes. So even though Alex Wood is technically Atlanta's #2 SP, he still exemplifies the skill level of the average staff ace. Julio Teheran, also of the Braves, comes in right below this position's median (65), so the moral of the story is that Atlanta's pitching staff is pretty mediocre overall. Speaking of the median, it's interesting that Tyson Ross ranks above San Diego's highest profile offseason acquisition even though it will likely be James Shields pitching on opening day. One person whose opening day status won't be in doubt for a long time to come is Clayton Kershaw, the only pitcher in the top 10 and deservedly so. On the other side of the range, the fact that Jorge De La Rosa is ranked 150 spots below the next staff ace (Josh Collmenter of the Diamondbacks) is evidence how little the Rockies have prioritized the pitching side of their game.


Starting Pitcher 2
Average: 174.2 (Drew Hutchison)
Median: 164 (Homer Bailey)
Range: 27 (Stephen Strasburg) - 488 (Jhoulys Chacin)

We see the continuation of a trend here as Hutchison is #3 on the Blue Jays rotational depth chart but he has the profile of a typical SP2. Speaking of continuing the trend, Jhoulys Chacin, also a Rockie, clocks in 185 ranks below the next competitor - Jeremy Hellickson, also of the Diamondbacks. As is evident from his super high rank, Stephen Strasburg would be an ace on all but five major league teams. It'll be interesting to see how he fares on the open market in a couple years, because with the presence of Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark, and some top shelf prospects in Washington, he doesn't seem to be part of their long term plans.


Starting Pitcher 3
Average: 254.6 (Justin Verlander / Jose Fernandez)
Median: 242 (Wei-Yin Chen)
Range: 49 (Jordan Zimmermann) - 566 (Jordan Lyles)

Maybe it's because the SP3 spot is the middle of the positional triangle, but the two average SP3's are actually their team's third ranked starters. Although in Fernandez's case, his ranking (and thus his placement) is deceptive because he will likely assume the role of ace for the Marlins whenever he's able to return from last year's Tommy John surgery. Some trends remain in place, however, namely the excellence and terribleness of Washington's and Colorado's rotation, respectively, only this time Lyles finished a full 150 spots behind Ricky Nolasco of the Twins. It's also worth noting that both the previous two Nationals pitchers finished in front of Zack Greinke (48) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (100) of the Dodgers.


Starting Pitcher 4
Average: 320.1 (Kyle Hendricks / Yovani Gallardo)
Median: 301 (J.A. Happ)
Range: 85 (Gio Gonzalez) - 572 (Kyle Kendrick)

Things are starting to even out here as Hendricks is #4 on a deep Cubs staff while Gallardo is slated to be #3 on a Rangers staff that is in a state of flux. This Washington rotation is so unfair that I feel like I need to mention that John Lackey (170) was next in line and more representative of the average team's fourth starter. Likewise, Colorado's pitching staff is so bad that David Buchanan of the Phillies deserves a dishonorable mention here as the next-to-worst SP4 in the league.


Starting Pitcher 5
Average: 434.0 (Travis Wood)
Median: 421 (Tsuyoshi Wada)
Range: 159 (Doug Fister) - 613 (Mike Foltynewicz) or 624 (Eric Stults)

It's interesting that the two pitchers that best exemplify the fifth starter spot are the two pitchers who will be battling it out to be the actual fifth starter for the Cubs. Of course Felix Doubront, Edwin Jackson, and Jacob Turner will be around as well, and it wouldn't be a surprise if one of these arms finds themselves dealt before the start of the season, but Wood and Wada definitely have the inside track. Again with this Washington rotation so let's give a shout out to Jon Niese of the Mets (305). For once, Colorado does not find itself on the low end of the range, and the reason for two potential Braves SP5's is that I'm not sure whether top prospect (and the fruit of the Evan Gattis trade) Mike Foltynewicz will be deployed in the bullpen as he was last year or whether Eric Stults will make the team out of Spring Training.

Relief Pitcher 1
Average: 173.8 (Jonathan Papelbon)
Median: 149 (Joaquin Benoit)
Range: 46 (Aroldis Chapman) - 369 (Jenrry Mejia)

Papelbon's placement on this list ensures that roughly half the general managers in the sport are closely monitoring his situation with a trade in mind. Well, actually slightly less than half, as Benoit's median ranking proves. I don't want to surmise, but I wonder if Aroldis Chapman's comeback from a horrific line drive to the face last spring cemented his spot 10 places above other elite closers Craig Kimbrel (56) and Greg Holland (57).


Relief Pitcher 2
Average: 420.2 (Chad Qualls)
Median: 434 (Kevin Quackenbush)
Range: 204 (Andrew Miller) - 626 (Sam LeCure)

The real reason that RP2 is important in fantasy is for depth reasons - they usually don't come into play unless a closer gets injured and saves are up for grabs. I like keeping track of the top setup men because the deeper bullpen pieces play an important part over the course of a long season, but then again I have been known to be obsessive about certain baseball related facts. It makes sense that an established lefty like Andrew Miller would be at the top of the range here, not necessarily because he'll justify his historic four-year deal, but because he's coming to a storied franchise that's trying to break in a new closer. It also makes sense that the team with the top ranked reliever in baseball would also have the lowest-ranked second stringer.

Catcher
Average: 266.3 (Miguel Montero)
Median: 292 (Wilin Rosario)
Range: 23 (Buster Posey) - 532 (Tuffy Gosewisch)

It appears that league average catchers are hot commodities this year, given the trade rumors swirling around Colorado's Wilin Rosario and the fact that Miguel Montero was already acquired by the Cubs. It's interesting that both these players will contribute to their clubs in virtually opposite ways: Rosario's defensive limitations are well documented but he still swings a big stick, while Montero's above average pitch framing skills make up for his declining bat. Given the defensive necessity of this position, it's rare to find an offensive powerhouse such as Buster Posey who ranks more than 30 spots above his nearest competitor - Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy - although it's all but certain he will finish his career at first base. Arizona's lack of a viable major league catching option to replace Montero is well documented, and if they don't make a trade for someone like Toronto's Dioner Navarro, we could see a lot of replacement level at bats from the likes of Gerald Laird, Jordan Pacheco, and Rule 5 pick Oscar Hernandez.

First Base
Average: 201.2 (Lucas Duda / Eric Hosmer)
Median: 189 (Brandon Belt)
Range: 4 (Paul Goldschmidt) - 646 (Jon Singleton)

First base is a classic power position with the strongest high end except the outfield (three of the top 10 ranked players) and very solid fantasy contributors most of the way through. Looking at the top of the spectrum, I'd say it's about time that someone unseated Miguel Cabrera as the top infielder in the sport. He lost third base eligibility last year, and while he's still in his prime (just 31 years old), he's a full three years older than Arizona's star slugger. True, they both had 2014's marred by injury, but while Goldy's was a fluke hit-by-pitch that broke his hand and ended his season on August 1, Cabrera played through his ankle issues that eventually required offseason surgery. Don't get me wrong, the difference between #4 and #6 is basically nonexistent in the fantasy world and either one would be a blockbuster first pick, but it's a symbolic changing of the guard for sure. Also of note is how dejectedly low MLB is on former Astros 1B prospect Jon Singleton who's a full 200 ranks lower than the next first sacker: Oakland's Ike Davis. He could be an intriguing buy low candidate, especially since Chris Carter no longer has 1B eligibility.


Second Base
Average: 218.9 (Omar Infante)
Median: 203 (Jedd Gyorko)
Range: 9 (Jose Altuve) - 526 (Alberto Callaspo)

Looking at the above graph, you'll see a steady decline from the four infield positions starting at first base, so that means the top ranked infielders are extremely high value picks, but they drop off as you get towards the middle of the pack. We've got a changing of the guard at second base too with MLB banking on Jose Altuve building his breakout season rather than Robinson Cano continuing his quiet consistency. Personally I would go for a player with more than a one-year track record of excellence, but then again I wouldn't draft a second baseman in the first or second round anyway.


Third Base
Average: 242.8 (Brett Lawrie)
Median: 223 (Kris Bryant)
Range: 24 (Anthony Rendon) - 540 (Luis Valbuena)

There are a lot of interesting names in this blurb, whether because of their top prospect status, multi-positional eligibility, or the offseason transactions in which they were involved. Kris Bryant, baseball's consensus #2 prospect behind Byron Buxton, represents by far the highest rank for someone not currently on a 40-man roster. It's super impressive that a first year player is projected to step in and immediately perform at a league average clip. With the presence of Bryant, the Cubs were able to trade Luis Valbuena to the Astros, who now have the lowest ranked projected corner infielders. It's almost certain that Anthony Rendon will man the hot corner for the Nationals, but if he plays second base (where he's also eligible), then Josh Donaldson (31) and Adrian Beltre (32) would battle as the top third baseman in the league. Looking at these numbers only makes it even more depressing that the A's only received a league average talent in return for one of the best.


Shortstop
Average: 246.0 (Danny Santana / Javier Baez)
Median: 236 (Jed Lowrie)
Range: 15 (Troy Tulowitzki) - 599 (Freddy Galvis)

Interestingly enough, neither of the two shortstop-eligible players closest to the average shortstop rank spent significant times at positions other than shortstop last season. Javier Baez will play second base for the Cubs with Starlin Castro firmly entrenched at short and it's unclear whether Danny Santana will remain at center field until Buxton is ready for Minnesota. Troy Tulowitzki once again takes home the top prize, injury history be damned. On the low end of the range, Philadelphia fell into the same trap as Arizona in that they traded away a big league regular with no viable replacement - Freddy Galvis is more than 160 ranks below the next closest competitor (Adeiny Hechavarria at 436).

Outfield 1
Average: 84.3 (J.D. Martinez)
Median: 41 (Billy Hamilton)
Range: 1 (Mike Trout) - 342 (Nick Markakis)

No group of players is so top heavy as first outfielders (five of the top 10 and 20 of the top 100), but that's mostly because we're basically picking from a group three times the size of any other position. The fact that the average is more than twice the median shows that there's quite a drop off in the later teams who don't prioritize having an offensive outfield. Mike Trout is obviously at the top of his game (and at the top of everyone's game), but almost as impressive are the guys right behind him: Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen. I was also happy to see Adam Jones round out the top ten, who also serves as a sobering reminder of the Braves' situation, since his former teammate Nick Markakis was much more attractive as a number two or three outfielder.


Outfield 2
Average: 168.2 (Austin Jackson)
Median: 143 (Mookie Betts)
Range: 26 (Starling Marte) - 426 (B.J. Upton)

This group is similar to what we saw with SP3 where the average lines up almost exactly with the median - Austin Jackson, Seattle's #2 outfielder, since I'm counting Nelson Cruz as an outfielder even though he'll likely DH most of the time, is the next player down from Mookie Betts. Call me crazy, and I mean no disrespect to Pittsburgh since I like the Pirates a lot, but I think 26 is way to high a rank for Starling Marte. He's got a lot of talent, but to put him ahead of such proven superstars as Ryan Braun or even catcher-eligible outfielder Evan Gattis seems totally wrongheaded to me. I will still probably draft him super early because I'm a self-professed slave to the rankings, but I won't be happy about it...


Outfield 3
Average: 294.9 (Rajai Davis)
Median: 293 (Colby Rasmus)
Range: 104 (Charlie Blackmon) - 568 (Eric Young Jr.)

These, on the other hand, are rankings I can totally get behind. The median/mean guys profile basically the same: they're both center field eligible, neither will light up the leaderboards, but neither will they embarrass you in a fantasy setting. Last year I rode Charlie Blackmon to a great fantasy first half but then used him to acquire a more consistent player at the deadline (I used him as part of a package to acquire Sonny Gray), so it's clear that I see him as a regression candidate. We're seeing a definite trend with the sad state of the Braves outfield, and what's really scary is that it could be even worse if Eric Young Jr. doesn't win the third outfield spot out of spring training - Zoilo Almonte or Jonny Gomes would be next on the depth chart at 606 and 639, respectively.


Designated Hitter
Average: 293.6 (Rajai Davis)
Median: 285 (Kendrys Morales)
Range: 91 (David Ortiz) - 448 (Garrett Jones)

Do me a favor and scroll back up to the graph near the top of this post. Do you see how the average DH is almost exactly on par with the average third outfielder? I know there's a smaller sample size for these players, but I still find it fascinating how much the DH spot correlates to just being able to play an extra outfielder (even though most DH's really profile as first basemen).


Wow, that was a lot of information, but that's just how excited I get when it's time for Spring Training!