The Royals earned the first wild card spot by a margin of one game, so they will host tomorrow's contest. It should also be noted that Kansas City would have home field advantage had the two teams tied, since KC won the season series against OAK 5 games to 2. Let's take a look at their projected lineup for tomorrow's game along with the rotation with which they ended the year.
Royals manager Ned Yost has been running out a different batting order for the last two weeks than the one he used for most of the season. You can see the new lineup in the above graphic, which also includes cool info such as each player's preseason ranking from MLB.com, how they bat and throw, their 2014 fantasy point totals and salaries, when they're set to become free agents, and astrology/hometown information. Let's just say you don't win your fantasy baseball league (as I did this year!) by not paying attention to every minuscule detail of every MLB roster. Basically what changed was that two bottom of the order hitters got big batting order promotions: new leadoff hitter Alcides Escobar had been holding down the 8th or 9th slot, while Lorenzo Cain, who spent most of the season batting in the 6-7-8 range, jumped up to #3. Then the middle of the order - Hosmer, Butler, Gordon, Perez - all shifted down one slot to accommodate the moves. The new lineup seems to have been paying dividends, since it kept Kansas City in the hunt for first place in their division until the last day of the season.
Tomorrow's game marks Kansas City's first time in the playoffs since 1985 when they won the World Series, and they've got a pretty good starter on the hill for them in James Shields. "Big Game James" earned his nickname pitching in the postseason (including the World Series) for the 2008 Rays - despite the fact that he's lost his last two postseason starts in 2010 and 2011, both to Texas. But if his team has any kind of lead heading into the late innings, they can turn it over to one of the sharpest bullpens in the game, anchored by All-Star closer Greg Holland and Shields's former Ray teammate Wade Davis. The silver lining is that all of KC's top pitchers are righties, which means that the A's can trot out their actual, big boy lineup tomorrow.
Speaking of the A's lineup, Bob Melvin also tried something new for the final series of the year against Texas - namely moving last minute acquisition and Yoenis Cespedes replacement Adam Dunn from his usual cleanup spot and batting him second between Coco Crisp and Josh Donaldson. I'm not necessarily NOT a fan of this move since, for all my obsession about batting orders, studies have shown that they don't impact the outcome of games all that much. But that being said, studies have also shown that it's smart to put your most powerful bat in the #2 hole (cf. Mike Trout) and it's not as if Donaldson is going to be catching anyone on the base paths given the way he's been limping for the past few months.
I would almost rather see Sam Fuld hitting second, but his presence in the lineup is predicated on Brandon Moss moving back to first base and "I Believe in" Stephen Vogt warming the bench. This move I WOULD be a fan of for a couple of reasons: 1) it gets Oakland's best defensive alignment on the field, since a run prevented is just as good as a run scored, and 2) it allows Moss to go back to first base, where he spent the part of this season when he was actually hitting well. (Remember when Brandon Moss was an All-Star, you guys?) But Melvin is such a mixer and a matcher that I wouldn't be surprised to see any batter in pretty much any spot in the batting order (except for Crisp and Donaldson), or to see him pull his best middle of the order bats for right handed pinch hitters at the mere sight of a lefty warming up in the KC bullpen.
James Shields may have the reputation for pitching in pressure situations, but Jon Lester has the results. In his 13 postseason appearances (all starts except for two relief appearances in 2007) lester has a 2.11 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, and 3.24 K/BB ratio (compared to 4.98, 1.398, 3.13 for Shields in 6 starts). And if my hometown team project from earlier this year is any indication, Lester knows how to pitch in a one-game, as he led the bottom-ranked Western US team to the gold, while Shields couldn't even get a win pitching behind the top-ranked Californians. But far be it from me to use a video game as a predictor of what might happen in real life.
The back end of the A's bullpen has been a strange mix of dominant and shaky. The only reasons that Sean Doolittle's stats aren't approaching Holland-esque numbers (he's got a 11.13 K/BB rate, compared to 4.50 from KC's stopper) is that a) he languished as a setup man during Jim Johnson-gate and b) he missed time with a lower back issue. Luke Gregerson looks top notch on paper, but for some reason all I can remember are his 8 (eight) blown saves. Fernando Abad and Eric O'Flaherty are quite solid lefty options (unlike Francisley Bueno and Tim Collins of the Royals). But it's been Dan Otero who has quietly become the most consistent member of this relief corps, averaging about 1.3 innings per appearance and vulturing 8 wins on the year.
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow evening, but I'll definitely be sending all the good vibes I can muster in the direction of Kansas City. Oh, and apologies to all friends and co-workers who might be in close proximity to me for the next month, because I'm definitely wearing my good luck A's shirt for the entire duration of their stay in the postseason.
The American League Wild Card Game is on Tuesday September 30 at 5:00 pm PT on TBS. Get excited!
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