Friday, August 15, 2014

Hometown Teams 2014 All-Star Break: Round 1 Results

It's taken me a little more time than expected to plug all the rosters into my copy of MLB 14: The Show and simulate the first round of matchups. But I finally found some time between prepping for my fantasy football draft, familiarizing myself with Dungeons & Dragons 5th Edition, tinkering with my Magic: The Gathering EDH decks, and other random stuff like my job and family, to take this project one step further. Here's a new color-coded bracket for the start of the second round, followed by a summary of the results, and finally a breakdown of the final two teams.


As could be expected, neither of the two favored teams in the preliminary round came away with the victory. Game 1 delivered the pitcher's duel that we all expected with both Clayton Kershaw (Texas) and Felix Hernandez (Venezuela) each managing a quality start, but then leaving with the game still tied. Victor Martinez proved the hero with a late home run and Francisco Rodriguez nailed down the save easily. Game 2 also featured a solid pitching matchup where neither Jon Lester (West US) nor Chris Sale (Florida) figured into the decision. It was Wade Davis who faltered, giving up a late home run to Jacoby Ellsbury, whose Western counterparts never looked back.

In Game 3, we get the first example of where I let the video game's rankings take precedence over actual 2014 statistics, which may have proved fatal for one of my favorite teams (more on that later). Health permitting, Masahiro Tanaka would have started for the International team, but in his absence, the raw stats would favor Colombian right hander Julio Teheran to take his place. However, the game put forth Yu Darvish as the team's #1 starter, and I can't say that I disagree, given the Japan native's track record and truly electric stuff. On the other side, the game suggested David Price, but I gave the nod to Adam Wainwright based on his 2014 performance (he averaged 95 points per game through the All-Star break against Price's 77.6 ppg). In any case, it was the offensive prowess of Cuba's own Yasiel Puig - who hit two home runs in the contest - that continued the upset trend.

Based on how things are going, I'll bet you can guess who won the matchup between the intimidating Dominican Republic and the powerful Northeast US. It was pitching that spelled the D.R.'s doom with Johnny Cueto just not able to get going against the likes of Mike Trout and Nick Markakis, who managed a grand slam in the slugfest. Jeff Samardzija pitched the North to victory in another case of the game suggesting a starter without the statistical edge. Although neither of the above cases represents the favorite team I mentioned earlier.

As a native of California, I may have put too much stock in the games played by the Californian team. This bias led to an inordinate amount of last minute tinkering to the lineup before the simulation. Below is how the team arguably should look on paper based on 2014 stats, and in the summary I'll tell you what changes I was compelled to make by the computer players' attributes:


As an Oakland A's fan, I really like Coco Crisp. He plays a good defense, sparks the team with his winning personality, and is the best true leadoff hitter among this group. The game, however, doesn't think too highly of his lack of power, and instead opted for Dustin Pedroia in the leadoff spot - a guy who is big on reputation but small on 2014 production (10.1 ppg thru the ASB) - shifting Utley to DH and Braun to LF. They also preferred power hitting catcher Jason Castro (8.0 ppg) to on base machine John Jaso, which proved problematic when Castro air mailed an attempt to throw out a base stealer, leading to a decisive Venezuela run.

In the pitching rotation, I can't say I blame the game for slotting "Big Game" James Shields and erstwhile phenom Stephen Strasburg above Garrett Richards, because who even knew who Garrett Richards was before this year? (And honestly, who knows who he is even now?) The pitching on both sides was great, but it was Venezuela's creative use of their bench that led them past CA: pinch runner Alexi Amarista came in after a Pablo Sandoval single, then stole second and scored on a Martin Prado hit. Since it's double elimination, we'll see California take on Zack Greinke's Florida in the loser's bracket.

With the Wild West's completely unexpected victory over the much higher ranked Central US, every game in the first round was officially an upset. In this case, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament prevailed behind a strong pitching performance by Tim Lincecum, who outdueled Max Scherzer and quieted a very potent lineup. I don't know what this trend means for the accuracy of The Show's programming, the nature of double elimination tournaments, or both, but take a look at the Central's lineup for what is very likely to be the second-to last time, if the current patterns hold...


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