I always like having a Cancer birth sign, because I feel like every midsummer I get a special birthday present from MLB in the form of the All-Star Game! Half a season is not a very accurate sample size for judging success, but it's such a darn good MILESTONE for checking in on some of the ever-changing statistics that measure performance. These are the counting stats that - in my estimation - should form the basis for fantasy evaluation. Taking a sounding at the season's traditional halfway point (the All-Star break actually occurs a handful of weeks beyond the season's mathematical halfway point) should give us an idea about which players in the league are excelling or falling below expectations.
The All-Star Game is just one week away, and rosters have been selected by the powers that be, i.e. the fans, the managers of last year's World Series teams, Bud Selig's secret network of spies, etc. I know that contests like the All-Star Game tend to turn into popularity contests, but more often than not, the voters will identify some of the most talented and deserving players in the game. Let's check out a projected depth chart and projected pitching staffs for each league, complete with fantasy stats thru Sunday 7/6, the date the All-Star Rosters were announced.
As you can see, there is a lot of information in these little graphics. Let me point you towards a couple of key areas to make it easier to digest. First of all, looking at pure point totals, the AL comes in first for both categories of player: Mike Trout of the Angels paces all All-Star starting batters pretty comfortably in both PTS and PPG, while Seattle's Felix Hernandez has racked up the most pitching points. The highest points per game honors, however, goes to the NL's likely starter (schedule permitting) Clayton Kershaw, already the author of a no-hitter and the recipient of some pretty high praise from FanGraphs this year. King Felix's ppg average, while impressive, is about on par with both the NL and the AL's second-best pitchers: ERA leader Adam Wainwright and Japanese win-machine Masahiro Tanaka, respectively. Johnny Cueto's new delivery helped him become the NL's highest scoring pitcher, while blast from the past Francisco Rodriguez has the highest point total among relievers.
Comparing the two leagues, we see that the shortstop position has the largest point deficit between position players (at 752, about the value of an All-Star catcher): Troy Tulowitzki might just be the most valuable player in fantasy, given positional scarcity and all, while Derek Jeter was clearly given the nod out of respect for this being his last season rather than any kind of on-field ability. Nothing wrong with that (cf. Cal Ripken Jr. in 2001) as a part of this exhibition game SHOULD be a popularity contest, even if it does count for something. The next biggest deficit comes at 3B (443 between Josh Donaldson and Aramis Ramirez), where both representatives come from the best teams in their respective leagues.
Ramirez will have three teammates joining him in Minnesota from the NL-leading (and neighboring) Milwaukee Brewers: outfielder Carlos Gomez also in the starting lineup, catcher Jonathan Lucroy on the bench (although if we were going by offensive prowess alone, while ignoring defense and notoriety, Lucroy would be the clear starter), and the above-mentioned K-Rod in the bullpen. Donaldson, by contrast, will be playing alongside a whopping FIVE more members of the AL-best Oakland Athletics, which of course, for A's fans, is gonna be a bit cringeworthy, since we'll be watching some of their most important pieces taking the field an extra time. There's plenty that can happen in the next week to change this arrangement, however: 1B/OF Brandon Moss recently injured his ankle and Donaldson was hit by a pitch on the hand last night (although he stayed in the game and drove in a run) and we've already seen two AL players replaced due to injury. But the fact that part-time catcher Derek Norris, reclamation project Scott Kazmir, and first-year closer Sean Doolittle all got honors is a true testament that Boston manager John Farrell really appreciates the team effort that's necessary for the Athletics having such a special season so far. It's a little less surprising that last year's Home Run Derby champion and impressive outfield assist machine Yoenis Cespedes will take part in the festivities, so it also bears less mentioning.
The World Cup will likely still be going on come next Tuesday, July 15th, when these two teams square off at Target Field, the pride of Minneapolis. I will be watching somehow, and I hope that anyone who reads this and also plans to watch will be somewhat enlightened by the information presented herein. And while it might be too much to hope that someone who wasn't planning to watch will change his or her mind based on what I've written here, the dream is always marginally alive. Happy All-Star Week Everyone!
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