Saturday, March 1, 2014

Thoughts About NL East Lineups

Alright, past the halfway point! Let's go ahead and jump right into the lineups:


The utter lack of yellow in this lineup highlights Braves GM Frank Wren's "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy. The only major league acquisition liable to get significant playing time is Ryan Doumit, the third catcher on the roster (or second, if you count Evan Gattis as primarily an outfielder) with Wren instead opting to dole out long term extensions to no fewer than four of his key organizational building blocks - Freddie Freeman (right) got eight years, Andrelton Simmons seven, Julio Teheran six, and Craig Kimbrel four. And why should he tinker too much with a roster that won 96 games last year and could possibly improve on that number with full seasons from Jason Heyward and Brandon Beachy, and with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla embodying the lyric from the Damn Yankees song Heart: "We gotta get better, cuz we can't get woise." Sometimes regression towards the mean can be a good thing.

The team's most glaring lack (although it might not be a statistically significant lack) is a prototypical leadoff hitter. B.J. Upton has led off in the past, but he's not going to bat anywhere but 8th until he can improve on that .557 OPS from last year. Andrelton Simmons has flashed 20-steal speed in the minors, but an OBP under .300 (.296) is not gonna cut it at the top of the order. You'd like to have Jason Heyward's left-handed bat in a more traditional power position, but I don't see many other options for manager Fredi Gonzalez in this spot. Even at age 23, Alex Wood has shown that he has little left to prove in the minors and should have every opportunity to lock down the fifth starter spot. But if he struggles come mid-May, the Braves should have Gavin Floyd back from Tommy John surgery and ready to contribute, plus there's non-roster invitee Freddy Garcia to provide additional depth.


Unlike the Braves, the Nationals disappointed in the season after they decided to shut down their best pitcher for their first postseason appearance in more than 30 years. But like Atlanta, Washington didn't make any significant changes to their lineup. Their biggest offensive acquisition was bringing in Nate McLouth from across the beltway to ride the bench and provide insurance in case Bryce Harper can't keep his face away from those pesky outfield walls. The pitching staff was another story, as a pair of trades brought in big time SP4 upgrade Doug Fister and former Oakland fan favorite Jerry Blevins, who will get most of the bullpen work against lefties, joining former closers Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in setting up current closer Rafael Soriano. I think Tanner Roark's strong end to 2013 will make him the front runner for the ever elusive fifth starter spot, but don't count out left-hander Ross Detwiler who has more experience in the position.


I went back and forth for a while about New York's first base situation: the alternative to what's presented above is to have Ike Davis - the poster child for "struggled mightily" in 2013 - at first, with Lucas Duda shifting to left field, and one of the Youngs (Chris or Eric) returning to a the fourth outfielder role they experienced before coming to the Mets (with Oakland and Colorado, respectively). My gut tells me though that if Davis has any kind of a strong spring - he's off to a good start with this sweet shot in his spring debut - the Mets will trade him (maybe to the Pirates?) rather than risk another demotion-worthy slow start. But I have been wrong before. Again, the fifth starter spot is a bit of a mess - I gave the nod to Jenrry Mejia because of his strong showing in five starts last year, but it could just as easily go to swingman Carlos Torres or minor league invitees Jeremy Hefner, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or John Lannan. Likewise for spots in the bullpen, with such established veterans as Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth signed to minor league deals with invites to big league camp. Let the spring competition begin!


It's always a bit of a letdown for me when a free agent signs with a team he's played for in the past, but the Phillies needed a right-handed bat to break up all those lefties, so GM Ruben Amaro Jr. (left) brought back Marlon Byrd after the breakout year that never came when he was with Philadelphia. He also signed a right-handed starter to supplement their two lefty aces, although A.J. Burnett will likely slot in after both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation, at least as soon as the latter recovers from his biceps issue. Unlike most teams, it appears that Philly's rotation is pretty much set, barring a surge from Cuban star Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. The same cannot be said for the bullpen - remember when Mike Adams was their second-highest paid reliever? Cuz it's happening now. It could be a longer bridge than the Ben Franklin to get from this team's starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon.


If it looks like the 2013 statistics from some of the key Marlins players are missing, that's because converting second baseman Rafael Furcal missed the entire year due to injury and world traveller Casey McGehee spent last season in Japan, where he parlayed his 28 home runs and 891 OPS into a major league contract. (Fun fact: his replacement at 3B for the Rakuten Golden Eagles will be former Yankees 3B Kevin Youkilis, who will hope to make a similar stateside comeback in 2015.) Miami certainly has some youthful promise in the lineup, with 2013 top-100 prospects Christian Yelich (age 22) and Marcell Ozuna (23) lined up for regular spots. The rotation is just as young with the average age clocking in just above or just below 24, depending on whether the fifth starter spot goes to 27-year-old Tom Koehler or 29-year-old Kevin Slowey. My advice to Marlins fans: get used to the divisional basement for the foreseeable future.

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