Thursday, October 3, 2013

2013 AL and NL Wild Card Teams

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In Christopher Nolan's legendary blockbuster hit The Dark Knight, the Joker said, "If you're good at something, never do it for free." I've been aggregating statistical data about major league baseball players as a hobby for more than ten years now, and in that time I'd say I've gotten pretty good at it. I've developed more efficient workflows and the technology has improved with the result that I can generate more detailed and comprehensive documents than ever before... and yet I still haven't been able to monetize this practice in any way. I continue to create these documents and distribute samples of them freely over this blog because it's a passion of mine, but if any of you loyal readers would like, or knows someone who would like, a more complete, searchable, sortable version of what  you see here, let me know and we can talk price...

The two samples coming at you today are the teams who were the latest to arrive at the postseason party. I can't in all conscience count the Wild Card "play-in" game as the postseason proper because it's the same format as what would happen if the two Wild Card teams in each league finished the season with identical records and had to play a one game regular season tiebreaker. The fact that the Rays and Rangers had to play an extra play-in game to get to the play-in game is just ridiculous, and in light of that ridiculousness, I will start with the official NL Wild Card entry, the Pittsburgh Pirates.


Keep in mind that these bloated rosters are as of the last day of the regular season when September call-ups were still in effect. I figured I did all this work, why limit myself to the 25-man playoff rosters? A little refresher on the color coding: Green in the Pos 1 column means the player is in his rookie season. Notable examples include Baseball America's #7 ranked prospect prior to the season Gerrit Cole, who took the league by storm, accounting for the second-highest points per game total on the team. Yellow in the name columns denotes an off-season acquisition, such as staff ace Francisco Liriano, who was an absolute steal at a cool $1 million bucks, or less than 1/16th of opening day starter A.J. Burnett's salary, and C Russell Martin, whose two HR in the Wild Card game off Johnny "CUETO! CUETO! CUETO!" Cueto led the charge into Buctober. A Cyan highlight means the player was acquired midseason, such as Martin's WBC 2009 teammate on Team Canada Justin Morneau. A Yellow/Cyan split in the First Name/Last Name columns is exactly what it looks like: the player was acquired during the off-season and then was flipped by his new team. Both players on this roster to whom this happened came to the Pirates from the Mets in the same deal.

I know playoffs causes all of us to live in the moment, but for those who like to look ahead to the future, there's the Free Agency column. Impending free agents are highlighted in Red, such as tonight's starter A.J. Burnett, finally reaching the last year of a lucrative 5-year deal he signed with the Yankees in 2009. So this start, his 8th career in the postseason, could end up being an audition of sorts for the 36-year old. The green highlight means that the player has an option on his contract - I haven't differentiated whether the option is held by the player, the team, requires a mutual cooperation between the two, or is guaranteed to vest with certain achievements. Hey, I'm getting better but the system is not perfect. A little research shows that Liriano's option vested based on the amount of days he spent NOT on the DL, while Pedro Alvarez's paltry $700k option is sure to be picked up by the team, if an extension is not reached first. The different shades of Blue denote the three years during which a player is eligible for arbitration, starting with the darkest (fill-in closer Mark Melancon) going to the lightest (1B/RF Garrett Jones, although due to his Super 2 status, he will receive a fourth year of arb eligibility).

As you can see by the Points column, sometimes the most important players to a team are the ones with no highlights at all: Andrew McCutchen, a deserving NL MVP candidate, led the team in points by a huge margin and newly-minted closer Jason Grilli, who would have competed for the unheralded Rolaids Reliever of the year award had he not missed all of August with a forearm injury, doesn't become a free agent for another year. Now let's check out a much more stable - and thus less interesting - team in the AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays.


Even though injuries kept their top pitchers from racking up the monster seasons that they deserved, this is still a formidable staff. Staff ace and Sports Illustrated cover honoree David Price shut down Texas in play-in #1, team PPG leader Alex Cobb (concussion notwithstanding) held the Indians scoreless in play-in #2, and they still have 17 game winner Matt Moore ready to start the ALDS against Boston. The additions of swingman Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona, the first non-homegrown pitcher to start a game for the Rays in a number of years) and veteran reliever Jamey Wright to add to the setup combo of Joel Peralta and Jake McGee, plus surprising rookie lefty Alex Torres, create a very impressive bridge to WBC-winning closer Fernando Rodney. Even without workhorse James Shields, these hurlers can go toe-to-toe with any club in the majors.

Speaking of Shields, the player they got in return for him could very well go on to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, living up to his #4 prospect ranking by Baseball America. RF Wil Myers hasn't made the splash of Mike Trout or Bryce Harper or even Yasiel Puig, but his boyish good looks and easygoing demeanor are fitting in perfectly with a loose Tampa clubhouse. Speaking of the clubhouse, it seems to have done wonders for perennial problem child Yunel Escobar when he finally found a home after being shipped from the Blue Jays to the Marlins to the Rays in a matter of weeks. Sure he almost collided with David DeJesus last night after he "didn't hear him" calling for a pop fly, but his slick defense has gotten the Rays out of any number of tight spots. James Loney revitalized his career as a starter in west Florida, but despite all the fanfare, he hasn't really put up much better numbers than in his disappointing years with the Dodgers. It's unclear whether Tampa will ask him to return after playing out his one-year deal.

The same is true for last night's hero, Delmon Young, who provided all the offense the Rays would need with a big HR in the 4th inning, was an incredibly smart pick-up by GM Andrew Friedman: a power hitter with a proven post-season track record who was simply cut loose by the phloundering Phillies. His left-handed hitting DH partner Luke Scott is also on the last year of his contract, along with LF/2B Kelly Johnson (why do those positions always seem to go together? Just ask Alfonso Soriano and Chuck Knoblauch). For this team more than any other I can think of, we'll just have to wait and see how the playoffs progress before we can evaluate what they might do in the long winter months ahead.


Enjoy the NLDS games starting tonight on TBS!!!

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