Baseball Preview 2013: Central Divisions

Today (right now, even) the Oakland Athletics are going for win number 11 in what could turn out to be a historic April winning streak. I just read on the mlb.com game preview that the longest winning streak the A's have ever enjoyed in the month of April was 11 back in 1981. But if the A's want to tie their obscure record, they'll have to go through the Detroit Tigers, behind "best pitcher in the game right now" Justin Verlander. Seeing as the Tigers play in the central division, this seems like a great time to launch into the third and final part of my preview of the 2013 season, this one featuring both Central divisions.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers
The only difference between the respective projected lineups of Sports Illustrated and ESPN.com reflects the team's well-publicized closer controversy. For many months, fans and pundits thought that general manager Dave Dombrowski would employ rookie Bruce Rondon (Baseball America's #95 ranked prospect) to pitch the 9th after the club failed to re-sign veteran Jose Valverde due to playoff struggles. But days before the season, Rondon was optioned to AAA and manager Jim Leyland was forced to make due with some combination of Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel (the latter was not mentioned in either publication).

Kansas City Royals
If you look at the number 2 spot in the AL Central in ESPN's projections, you'll instead see the Cleveland Indians. That's right, they swapped the Tribe and the Royals from fourth to second, while both agreed that the White Sox would finish third. The two also disagreed on who would be Kansas City's utility infielder (will it be Elliot Johnson, acquired in that ridiculous trade with Tampa Bay, or Miguel Tejada, a non-roster invitee who won his roster spot just days before the season opened) and fifth starter (veteran lefty Bruce Chen, who has spent the year so far alongside Luke Hochevar in long relief, or Luis Mendoza (whose 6.17 ERA over two starts shows that his spot is by no means safe).

Chicago White Sox
The nitpickiest of discrepancies here, as only one bench spot is under review. SI lists catcher Hector Gimenez, not a bad bet given that the Sox are currently trusting unproven youngster Tyler Flowers to take A.J. Pierzynski's place behind the plate, while ESPN has infielder Conor Gillaspie, who became the team's #15 prospect (according to MLB.com) when he was acquired from the Giants in the off-season.

Cleveland Indians

Carlos Carrasco, at the moment of his ejection.

These articles follow quite an interesting story that developed out of Cleveland's race to appoint a fifth starter. Before the season, the Indians announced that two-time All-Star Scott Kazmir had won the job out of Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. But no sooner was he called up than a strained ribcage forced him to the DL, forcing the Indians to send Carlos Carrasco to the mound, even though he was only on the roster for the purposes of serving out the last days of a suspension from 2011 (which was incidentally also the last year that Kazmir pitched in the majors). But during Carrasco's first appearance, he was served ANOTHER suspension for intentionally throwing at Kevin Youkilis. Guy just can't catch a break... Oh, they also couldn't decide between newcomer Matt Albers or third-year stalwart and Team USA member Vinnie Pestano for the primary setup role.

Minnesota Twins
Call me biased towards WBC participants, but I don't think that either Scott Diamond or Liam Hendriks (the two choices presented by SI and ESPN, respectively) will be Minnesota's primary fifth starter this year. Sure Diamond was the team's most consistent pitcher last year, but he's languishing on the DL, and I sincerely believe that Sam Deduno's performance for the Dominican Republic will earn him more starts than Liam "can't hold onto a lead" Hendriks. But this is a time-will-tell situation.


NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds
Turmoil at the top and middle of this division, as rampant disagreements on the final projected standings ties the NL Central with the AL East as the most fluid and unpredictable division. SI has the Reds here and the Cardinals in second, whereas ESPN thinks the year will end the other way around. But in an enigmatic turn of events, the Sports Illustrated magazine (which has to finalize its information ahead of time due to print deadlines and whatnot) accurately list Mike Leake as the fifth starter and have Aroldis Chapman reprising his 2012 role as unstoppable closer, while ESPN.com (which, as a website, can update their information as easily as clicking "resubmit") still has Chapman as a starter with Sean Marshall listed as the setup man. There was also a perfunctory disagreement about the bench (SI mistakenly thought Jason Donald would play off the bench, but he was designated for assignment and sent outright to AAA before the season), but the above story is more interesting because it calls into question my whole understanding of the print-vs.-web dynamic...

St. Louis Cardinals
I'll mention the bench story here, though, because there's nothing else up for discussion in Cardinal-land: SI lists Tony Cruz (as if Yadier Molina's going to need frequent backing up behind the plate) and Ty Wigginton (as if the 35-year-old veteran is going to get more playing time at 1B than the team's #8 prospect Matt Adams), while ESPN hands the spot to the versatile Daniel Descalso (who should have no shortage of playing time due to Rafael Furcal's most recent season-ending injury).

Milwaukee Brewers
SI and ESPN have the Brewers and the Pirates flip-flopped for third and fourth place, setting up a difference between who they think will be able to compete for a Wild Card spot. Fifth starter and bullpen are the only differences within the Brewers team, although they both end up being moot. SI thought that the team's #1 prospect (#69 overall, according to Baseball America) Wily Peralta would start every fifth day, while ESPN predicted the job would go to Mike Fiers; but with Chris Narveson's injury, there are now enough starts to go around. And with Jim(my) Henderson supplanting his fellow Team Canada bullpen mate John Axford as the team's closer, there are now plenty of bullpen innings for both him and lefty Tom Gorzelanny.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Lots going on here, as we have issues with the bench, rotation, and bullpen. Jose Tabata (ranked in the ESPN Baseball Tonight Top 500, but who's hitting just .071 with the big club) won the battle to be the Bucs' fourth outfielder over Alex Presley (who is starting his fourth season in AAA Indianapolis with a .381/.409/.571 line). Neither SI nor ESPN got the fifth starter pick right: Kyle McPherson (the team's #7 prospect) is struggling in AAA, and Francisco Liriano started the season on the DL to recover from a broken bone in his non-pitching arm. Jeff Locke is filling in with one start so far and another scheduled for today. And since a major league bullpen has plenty of room for a whopping TWO contributors aside from the closer, it's pointless to even mention the argument between Mark Melancon and Jared Hughes being listed as the top setup man.

Chicago Cubs
Just a fifth (or rather fourth/first) starter battle here, as SI went with former long reliever Carlos Villanueva as the SP4 while ESPN chose to list injured Matt Garza as the team's ace. My guess is that SI justifies this choice not because they don't think Garza will recover from his strained left lat, but because they're convinced they'll trade the $10mm pitcher in his last year before hitting free agency.


So that's officially it for my 2013 Baseball Preview. I know a lot of these conversations were about projected bench players and bullpen guys, but over the course of a 162 game season, a team needs all 25 players on its roster to contribute in order to win. So in a lot of ways, it's more fun to talk about the guys on the bubble than the boring old sure thing superstars. Case in point: it was ESPN's choice, Joaquin Benoit, who just closed the door against the A's on Justin Verlander's victory. Of course, the other thing is that over such a long season most all of the players mentioned here by one publication or the other will get a chance to make some meaningful contributions to their clubs. And I'll be here all season watching to see who/what they are.