WBC Finals: Puerto Rico vs. Dominican Republic

So it's come to this: an All-Caribbean WBC final game against two teams that have already played each other twice in this tournament. Things didn't work out too well for Puerto Rico the last two times - as they didn't work out too well for any team that has squared off against the Dominicans in this tournament - but they've been famously resilient against highly favored teams in elimination situations. So what will happen? Will the Dominicans continue their dominance and complete an undefeated tournament? Or will the Puerto Rican giant-killers strike again and hand the Dominican Republic their first loss in the game that counts most? The best way to determine the results is with a little side-by-side lineup comparison.

Catcher: Yadier Molina vs. Carlos Santana
Quite a lot of talent here as MLB.com has these two catchers ranked second and third in the position, behind only NL MVP Buster Posey. While Santana has had an impressive couple of years, what the youngest of the three famous Molina Brothers brings to the table in terms of defense, leadership, and (as of fairly recently) with his bat is unparalleled.
ADVANTAGE:

First Base: Carlos Rivera/Martin Maldonado vs. Edwin Encarnacion
On the Dominican side, you have a proven cleanup hitter who outscored Dominican great Albert Pujols last year. The Puerto Ricans, on the other hand, have a platoon between someone who, granted, did very well in the Mexican League last year and a major league backup catcher. The choice here is clear. On a side note, though, I wonder if this tournament will get the Brewers thinking about using Maldonado at first base at least to start the season, since with both Corey Hart and Mat Gamel out, Milwaukee's first base options look rather slim.
ADVANTAGE:

Second Base: Irving Falu vs. Robinson Cano
Again, the Dominicans are fielding the consensus best second baseman in the game right now, whereas Puerto Rico has a guy who can't even win a starting spot on the constantly-rebuilding Royals. Come on. Just... come on.
ADVANTAGE:

Third Base: Andy Gonzalez vs. Hanley Ramirez
A career minor leaguer with just over 250 big league at-bats to his credit? Or a former Rookie of the Year, three-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger (at shortstop, no less)? You decide...
ADVANTAGE:

Shortstop: Mike Aviles vs. Jose Reyes
Aviles has been one of Puerto Rico's most consistent producers and is making a case that he deserves to be more than just a utility player for his new team, the Cleveland Indians. But Jose Reyes is not just an elite shortstop, he's the spiritual force behind this Dominican Republic team.
ADVANTAGE:

Left Field: Eddie Rosario/Jesus Feliciano vs. Ricardo Nanita/Moises Sierra
This is by far the least consistent position for either team. Rosario is a top 10 prospect in the Twins organization, but he hasn't played above class A ball, while Feliciano has just 54 games of major league service time (all in 2010 for the Mets) and is currently a free agent. Nanita and Sierra were teammates on Toronto's AAA affiliate last year. Nanita has started the majority of the games in left, but only Sierra has any major league experience: 49 games in 2012. This one is close, but I'm giving it to the Dominicans based on Sierra's trendworthy performance last night.
ADVANTAGE:

Center Field: Angel Pagan vs. Alejandro De Aza
De Aza established himself as a serviceable center fielder last year with the White Sox. But with only one season under his belt as a starter, I have to go with the guy who not only has a longer track record and more complete skill set, but who just made bank on a new free agent contract.
ADVANTAGE:

Right Field: Alex Rios vs. Nelson Cruz
Rios (De Aza's teammate in Chicago) had a better 2012 than Cruz, but he struggled so badly early on in the WBC that the Puerto Rican manager dropped him from third to sixth in the order. But the sweet swing he put on an Atsushi Nohmi pitch for a two-run home run in Sunday's semifinal game against Japan is all the evidence I need to prove that he's out of his slump.
ADVANTAGE:

Designated Hitter: Carlos Beltran vs. Erick Aybar/Miguel Tejada
Whether Aybar is subbing in for Jose Reyes at short or Tejada is subbing for Hanley Ramirez at third, these are the two players that alternate for D.R., so I'm counting them as a DH platoon. But however you slice it, Beltran is a much more complete hitter than either of his opponents, and since defense doesn't come into consideration for this position, that just makes the choice easier.
ADVANTAGE:

Starting Pitcher: Giancarlo Alvarado vs. Samuel Deduno
Giancarlo (aka Carlos) Alvarado has never made it to the major leagues at age 34, but he's come rather close: in the years sandwiching the 2009 WBC (in which he also pitched for Puerto Rico) he started a total of 48 games for the Dodgers AAA affiliate. But in the three years since then, he's made his home in Japan where he has compiled a 3.53 ERA for the Hiroshima Carp and Yokohama BayStars. Samuel (aka Sam) Deduno got his first big chance with Minnesota last year, starting 15 games at the big league level and causing Twins fans no shortage of discomfort. I have a bet going that his masterful WBC performance thus far will lead to an increased workload this year, despite the fact that he's only in Twins camp as a non-roster invitee at this point.
ADVANTAGE:

Closer: Fernando Cabrera vs. Fernando Rodney
Pop quiz, stats nerds: who had a lower ERA (by almost 90 points), a lower WHIP, and 10 more saves than bullpen gold-standard Aroldis Chapman? 36-year-old (as of yesterday) Fernando Rodney, that's who. Cabrera has racked up 89 saves in his career... in the minor leagues. Tab over to his major league stats, and you'll see that total reduced by 88 - the 6'4" right-hander has saved only one major league game, and that was in 2007. There's no chance Rodney repeats his 2012 brilliance, but he's definitely got momentum on his side.
ADVANTAGE:

Bullpen:
Xavier Cedeno/J.C. Romero/Jose De La Torre
vs.
Santiago Casilla/Pedro Strop/Octavio Dotel
(based on number of appearances)
Even without Rodney, this Dominican team has an intimidating relief corps. Before Sergio Romo took over as San Francisco's closer (a spot that got him on the cover of a very special issue of Sports Illustrated in October), Casilla showed that he too has the stuff to finish out ballgames. Strop can hit 96 on the gun and Dotel has proven his staying power by pitching for a record number of teams over his career. On the flip side, P.R.'s middle relievers are as mediocre as D.R.'s are intimidating. The only one to score positive points in the majors is Xavier Cedeno, and those were with the Astros. J.C. Romero is the elder statesman on this staff, having gotten his start the same year as Dotel, but the lefty currently isn't employed by a major league team. There are some promising pitchers - Jose Berrios is another Twins top 10 prospect and Hiram Burgos ranked 13th in the Brewers system - but the overall talent just isn't there.
ADVANTAGE:

So there you have it: the final tally is Dominican Republic - 8, Puerto Rico - 4. I've done similar roster analyses in the past for big matchups, and the winners don't always end up victorious by any means. But if I were a betting man and had the opportunity to put some money down, I would definitely go for the Dominicans tonight.