Saturday, April 14, 2012

Relievers turned Starter

When compiling my 40-man roster project, I used ESPN.com's fantasy baseball positional eligibility as of opening day to sort the players.  I thought this would be a better estimation of the roles people would actually play on their teams during 2012 as opposed to just a summary of where they played in 2011.  But as I checked the eligibility requirements (which I admittedly should have done before embarking on this pursuit) I learned that those two factors will be one and the same until players have spent at least 10 days at their 2012 positions.  As of now, a player is eligible for any position at which he played at least 20 games in 2011.  Thus new position changes - Miguel Cabrera to 3B from 1B, Yonder Alonso to 1B from LF, Marco Scutaro to 2B from SS, etc. - have not yet taken effect.

But perhaps the most telling discrepancies I'm noticing now have to do with which reliever-eligible pitchers will be spending 2012 in the starting rotations.  Most fantasy leagues have several "P" spots, into which owners can slot either type of pitcher, so these changes generally shouldn't have too much impact on how people manage their teams.  But seeing as it will take these starters 10 starts (or roughly 50 days) to be properly recognized, I thought I'd give a shout to a pitching staff made of some of the more notable ones.

Neftali Feliz, TEX - After saving 72 games over the previous two regular seasons (plus 7 more in the playoffs during that span), he's going to have to work on commanding his secondary pitches.  As a closer he was basically fastball/slider, throwing his changeup only 2.6% of the time, but he's already started to reverse that trend: in his one start this year (a 7-inning scoreless gem) he pulled the string on 23% of his pitches.

Daniel Bard, BOS - Bard acted as a setup man for his previous three seasons, but a Boston pitching staff rife with injuries and uncertainty forced him to make the transition to the rotation at age 27.  He can reach 100mph, but to make it as a starter, you have to know how to pitch rather than just throw hard.  Bard was knocked around by Toronto in his first start of the year, but he might just be keeping with the slow starting tradition of his team.

Chris Sale, CHW - I think it was always assumed that Sale would end up in the White Sox rotation, but he was called on to cut his teeth in the bullpen last year.  According to scouting reports, the 6'6" lefty still pitches on adrenaline like a reliever rather than establishing all of his pitches early, but he's got a win in his first start this year and has a commanding presence on the mound.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC - Across the city of Chicago, another setup man who had a dominant season pitching in the 7th and the 8th innings last year will try to pitch into the 7th and 8th innings this year.  The Sports Illustrated scout who covers the Cubs this year thinks Samardzija's better suited for the bullpen, but if he can maintain the performance from his first two starts (both wins) for the rest of the season, he'll enjoy proving that scout wrong.

For the fifth starter spot, we have three guys who relieved primarily in the majors but who haven't had enough time to really establish themselves as relievers.  Felix Doubront will fill in as the Red Sox's fifth starter after starting 3 out of 23 games in his two-year major league career.  Hector Noesi, who came over to Seattle from the Yankees in the trade for Michael Pineda has 2 starts in 30 appearances in his only season last year.  Rookie Joel Carreno cracked the Blue Jays rotation after throwing 15.2 innings in relief last year, but he was primarily a starter in his 6 minor league seasons.

On the other side of the equation, Brett Myers of the Astros will make the transition from the team's number 1 starter to its closer this year, returning to the role he filled with the Phillies in 2007 when he compiled 21 saves, the only ones of his career.  A similar shift occurred in Texas's other team, where Alexi Ogando moves back to the bullpen to join Mike Adams in setting up Joe Nathan, after spending 2011 as a pretty effective starter.

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