Friday, April 1, 2011

Projected Lineups in Action

The other day, while traveling, I got my first taste of projected lineups for the 2011 season. With the Sports Illustrated baseball preview not yet on the shelves and the ESPN Magazine preview issue waiting for me at home, I decided to take a new, unexplored route: The Sporting News.

There were two baseball-related issues on the shelves, so I got them both: one was the weekly issue, including a two-page spread for each division, and the other was a fantasy baseball yearbook. The former is up to date, the latter was published before the new year, thus before many of the lineup-shaping trades occurred. It's interesting to see the two different takes and how things have changed, but it's obvious which one is more informative.

With the Phillies/Astros game on TV right now, I have the chance to see how the projections measure up against reality. Cuz in baseball, the lineup is a team's lifeblood, and it's important to see how good the pundits are at predicting reality.

For the Astros, only one notable change, and that's due to injury. Former Rockies prospect Clint Barmes was replaced in the field at SS and at the 2-hole in the lineup by Angel Sanchez, who was acquired last year and actually played the lion's share of time at shortstop for the 'Stros. Only one other change in the batting order: veteran 2B/super utility Bill Hall hits 5th, in front of young 3B Chris Johnson, but otherwise it was a pretty good job by the folks at TSN.

The big change for the Phillies was actually predicted by TSN, but not reflected on the page. They list 2B Chase Utley as the 3rd place hitter, but they amend that choice with an asterisk, denoting that he was expected to start the season on the DL, this time with knee troubles. This move bumps Shane Victorino to leadoff and Jimmy Rollins to 3rd place. Wilson Valdez fills in at 2B and bats 8th.

I don't know why TSN assumed Ben Francisco (filling in for injured prospect Domonic Howard in RF) would hit 5th behind Ryan Howard instead of the actual choice of LF Raul Ibanez. Probably because they thought splitting up the LH batters was important enough to put the weaker foot forward. In any case, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel decided to go with the more traditional choice.


ALSO, this just in from the crawl at the bottom of ESPN: Mike Napoli will start at 1B for the Rangers. A fantasy darling, what with the ability to post power numbers at catcher, but also with first base eligibility, Napoli was acquired over the off-season from the Angels, by way of the Blue Jays. I always thought he would be a better choice than Mitch Moreland, and now I've been somewhat vindicated. We'll see how he hits against Jon Lester and the Red Sox.

Wow, you guys, aren't lineups fun!?

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