Monday, March 28, 2011

Fantasy Draft Results - Gotham Batmans

Logo for my team: The Gotham Batmans!
Hey, remember that plan I made regarding writing stories for each of the games I saw two weekends ago at Spring Training? Remember how I wrote one of those stories? Well, it looks like that's all I'm going to get to because FANTASY SEASON IS HERE! OH YEAH! THAT'S RIGHT! Our draft was yesterday, and my 25 players are all set to take the field, score some runs, strike some dudes out, and get on with the general business of WINNING, DUH!

But I'd like to take some time before the season starts to attempt to digest some of the proceedings of the draft. Each year, I start out thinking I'll be so on top of things. I have all my rankings - MLB's rankings cross-checked against the ESPN rankings that show up on the draft screen, all supplemented by my own personal swp system. I have algorithms and charts depicting the best strategies. I have my knowledge of the rumor mill, tracking which players are trending up and down. And yet somehow, on each draft day, the anxiety and pressure and excitement all come to a head, and I find myself flying by the seat of my pants.

The main equation to keep in mind while drafting is to balance the best players available at the time of your pick with the specific needs of your team. For those first few picks, the best strategy is to just grab the best player out there. So when my pick came up (I was #7 this year - didn't get the luck to draft Pujols like I did in '010), I picked another power hitting first baseman who you can build an offense around: Miguel Cabrera. Up through the first 8 picks, we drafted the top 8 ESPN-ranked players, so the fact that I took 7th-ranked Cabrera with the 7th pick was seemingly pre-ordained. The fact that he's ranked 3rd overall by the MLB rankings just makes that pick a little sweeter.



With pick 7 of 10, and the snake draft system in use, I got two picks in relatively short succession, so with pick #2, I got Felix Hernandez. He is the second-highest ranked pitcher in both MLB and ESPN rankings (second to Roy Halladay in both counts), so I figured he'd be a good ace. I won't go pick by pick like I did last year. It just feels like the first couple of picks sometimes set the tone for the entire draft. With stars to bolster my lineup in both sides of the field, I was ready to fill in the rest of the holes.

With my next 3 picks, I concentrated on my infield: ever-consistent A-Rod at 3B, hopeful injury-bounceback Jose Reyes at SS, and #3-ranked Catcher Brian McCann. Those guys are hopefully all set for the season; 2B is a different story. First I picked up Ben Zobrist: he found some power in 2009, then focused on the SB in 2010 - maybe this is the year he puts both all together.

Then, since "Zorilla" also has outfield eligibility, I went breakout-or-bust with Kelly Johnson. Johnson had a great arbitration-eligible year with the Diamondbacks, which led to a one-year contract. He outperformed his history, but he'll still be playing for his stripes, so maybe there's a chance he'll repeat. I had a choice between Johnson and former one-season breakout star Aaron Hill, so I'll definitely be checking back in with both players throughout the year to see if I did good.

Now, the format we're using this year allows for an extra IF spot (as well as a UTIL (read: DH)), so both of these guys could potentially play at the same time. Other IF backups: SS Rafael Furcal in case Reyes has another injury setback, 1B Ike Davis, who could be poised for a monster season, and 3B Scott Rolen who as yet has shown only minimal signs of aging.

Speaking of aging, I nabbed Jorge Posada as my backup catcher, even though he will be primarily DH-ing this year for the Yankees. Hopefully he retains his eligibility, cuz I don't want to have him clogging up the DH spot. Also, seeing as DH-only types (e.g. David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero) weren't searchable in the draft system, who knows if Posada will just disappear into the void if he loses the ability to play as a catcher...

My outfield is a different story. I didn't pick an outfielder until Round 7 (pick 67), which is almost exactly where Jay Bruce falls on my Aggregate Rating Scale (56 MLB-rank + 74 ESPN-rank / 2 = 65). He has tremendous upside, but hasn't been able to put it all together. Another player with unrealized upside is my centerfielder Adam Jones (plus he's a friend of a friend's friend, so I consider him a good karmic pick, even though I was just seconds away from getting Matt Kemp). Then rounding out the OF is proven masher Nick Swisher.

But, wait - since our league format allows for 4 OF spots, that's not the entire lineup. For the last spot and first backup, I picked two more speedsters coming back from injuries: Coco Crisp and Grady Criesmore Sizemore. And, as you'll remember, neither of these two risky picks have to play, provided both Zobrist and Johnson come through.

After King Felix, I actually was able to stumble upon a couple more star starters: 2010 NL ERA champ Josh Johnson and AL strikeout leader Jered Weaver. Weaver's getting a bad fantasy wrap, but according to an article I read on the Angels' fantasy questions, he shouldn't be. The rest of my rotation includes some high-risk, high-upside picks: A's young lefties Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez, and Rockies phenom Jhoulys Chacin.*

*The pick of Chacin was unintentional and a bit embarrassing. Between picks, I had of course followed which players had been picked - the better to cross-reference the best available players according to each ranking system. With my 18th round pick approaching, I was ready to pick up either a fifth starter or a third reliever. I had my sights set on Daniel Hudson (who I'm convinced will break out this year) or Jose Valverde, but both went mere rounds before. Then when my 90 seconds came around, I panicked. I still didn't have a backup catcher. What if my outfielders didn't pan out? I asked myself these questions, and by the time I remembered my original plan and settled on newly-converted closer Matt Thornton, my time had run our and autopick grabbed Chacin for me. Thornton went 8 picks later.

To finish games (and rack up the saves) I have one of the top 5 closers in Joakim Soria. Behind him is former A's Rookie of the Year Huston Street. (He's ranked just slightly higher than the most recent A's Rookie of the Year closer, Andrew Bailey.) Then, because of Thornton-gate, I was stuck with Drew Storen and Leo Nunez to round out my bullpen. Hey, aside from the Phillies, the NL East looks a little weak this year, might as well capitalize...

So that's it, my 2011 Fantasy Draft in a nutshell. Now I have a core of players to keep EXTRA track of over the course of the season...

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