Cliff Lee was the first domino, who triggered the cascade including Dan Haren and now, most recently, Roy Oswalt.
1. Who Is Involved?Oswalt came from humble beginnings - he wasn't drafted until the 23rd round in 1996 - to become one of the greatest pitchers in Houston Astros history. His final tally over 9+ seasons: 143 wins, 82 losses (.636 record), 3.24 ERA, 19 complete games, and 1,593 strikeouts in 1,932 innings. He's never had a season in which he was worth fewer than 3 wins above replacement (WAR), and he's undefeated (4-0) in 8 post-season starts.
This year, all of his stats are impressive except his won-loss, which is mostly due to an epic fail in his team's run support category - his teammates scored 2 or fewer runs in 12 of Oswalt's 20 starts, and never once scored more than 5 runs for him. That shouldn't be a problem on his new team: even with Chase Utley and Shane Victorino on the DL, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins are sure to score plenty of runs.
2. Where Is He Going?
But those runs may also be a function of their home ballpark, one of the most notorious band-boxes in the game of baseball. However, if Oswalt stays true to form, he shouldn't have to worry too much about the long ball - although he's not an extreme ground ball pitcher (.79 ground ball/fly ball ratio in 2010, 0.93 for his career), Oswalt has given up less than a homer per nine innings (0.8 in 2010, 0.9 career).
He joins prize off-season acquisition Roy Halladay and devilishly handsome homegrown lefty Cole Hamels to give the Phillies a devastating 1-2-3 punch. The cupboard is bare after those three; but in the event that the Phil's catch the Braves, they can always try to emulate the Yankees' 2009 playoff success - where they won the World Series with a three-man rotation the whole way.
Oh, the Phillies are also getting $11 million from the Astros to help pay off Oswalt's huge contract. I guess when your star pitcher demands a trade, he DEMANDS a TRADE, no-trade clause be damned....
3. Who They Gave Up For Him:
The main chip in this trade is young lefthander J.A. Happ. He had a sweet season last year, but it was his first full(ish) major league season and he was already 26. He went down with an injury after two April starts this year, made one "audition" start this Sunday, and will now find himself in Houston for the remainder of the season. He still has some upside, but the years are against him on this one.Prospect #1: 19-year-old, Class A shortstop Jonathan Villar. Not much to say about him except that he's got some speed on the bases (38 SB), he needs to work on controlling the strike zone (26 BBs to 103 Ks), and he didn't make John Sickels's preliminary list of Phillies top 20 prospects to start 2010.
Prospect #2: 19-year-old, Class A+ outfielder Anthony Gose. Similar strengths and weaknesses as Villar, but he was ranked #5 in the Phillies system by Sickels, citing above average speed and athleticism, but giving him just a C+ rating.
NOT THAT IT REALLY MATTERS, because the Astros immediately turned around and flipped Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace, the pear-shaped former third-baseman who was the centerpiece in the A's trade of Matt Holliday... but who was quickly flipped to the Blue Jays for a speedy outfielder as an offshoot of the Roy Halladay deal. Sound familiar...? Maybe his bat will come through for the 'Stros.
4. Predictions
The Phillies are currently 3.5 games behind the surprise first place Atlanta Braves. While they don't have the pitching of their dynastic run of division titles in the 1990s, there's a lot of talent, and the bullpen has been nearly unstoppable. If the Phillies can overcome their injuries, I have to believe that the addition of Oswalt could very well push them over the edge in that division.
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