Trades: Best Pitcher on the Market Edition

This surely is the year of the pitcher, eh? Not only are league-wide pitching stats way impressive, pitcher related news is dominating the headlines as the trade deadline approaches. Every time you turn around, another high-profile hurler surrounded by trade rumors has been dealt.

Cliff Lee was the first domino, who triggered the cascade including Dan Haren and now, most recently, Roy Oswalt.

1. Who Is Involved?

Oswalt came from humble beginnings - he wasn't drafted until the 23rd round in 1996 - to become one of the greatest pitchers in Houston Astros history. His final tally over 9+ seasons: 143 wins, 82 losses (.636 record), 3.24 ERA, 19 complete games, and 1,593 strikeouts in 1,932 innings. He's never had a season in which he was worth fewer than 3 wins above replacement (WAR), and he's undefeated (4-0) in 8 post-season starts.

This year, all of his stats are impressive except his won-loss, which is mostly due to an epic fail in his team's run support category - his teammates scored 2 or fewer runs in 12 of Oswalt's 20 starts, and never once scored more than 5 runs for him. That shouldn't be a problem on his new team: even with Chase Utley and Shane Victorino on the DL, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Jimmy Rollins are sure to score plenty of runs.

2. Where Is He Going?

But those runs may also be a function of their home ballpark, one of the most notorious band-boxes in the game of baseball. However, if Oswalt stays true to form, he shouldn't have to worry too much about the long ball - although he's not an extreme ground ball pitcher (.79 ground ball/fly ball ratio in 2010, 0.93 for his career), Oswalt has given up less than a homer per nine innings (0.8 in 2010, 0.9 career).

He joins prize off-season acquisition Roy Halladay and devilishly handsome homegrown lefty Cole Hamels to give the Phillies a devastating 1-2-3 punch. The cupboard is bare after those three; but in the event that the Phil's catch the Braves, they can always try to emulate the Yankees' 2009 playoff success - where they won the World Series with a three-man rotation the whole way.

Oh, the Phillies are also getting $11 million from the Astros to help pay off Oswalt's huge contract. I guess when your star pitcher demands a trade, he DEMANDS a TRADE, no-trade clause be damned....

3. Who They Gave Up For Him:

The main chip in this trade is young lefthander J.A. Happ. He had a sweet season last year, but it was his first full(ish) major league season and he was already 26. He went down with an injury after two April starts this year, made one "audition" start this Sunday, and will now find himself in Houston for the remainder of the season. He still has some upside, but the years are against him on this one.

Prospect #1: 19-year-old, Class A shortstop Jonathan Villar. Not much to say about him except that he's got some speed on the bases (38 SB), he needs to work on controlling the strike zone (26 BBs to 103 Ks), and he didn't make John Sickels's preliminary list of Phillies top 20 prospects to start 2010.

Prospect #2: 19-year-old, Class A+ outfielder Anthony Gose. Similar strengths and weaknesses as Villar, but he was ranked #5 in the Phillies system by Sickels, citing above average speed and athleticism, but giving him just a C+ rating.

NOT THAT IT REALLY MATTERS, because the Astros immediately turned around and flipped Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace, the pear-shaped former third-baseman who was the centerpiece in the A's trade of Matt Holliday... but who was quickly flipped to the Blue Jays for a speedy outfielder as an offshoot of the Roy Halladay deal. Sound familiar...? Maybe his bat will come through for the 'Stros.

4. Predictions

The Phillies are currently 3.5 games behind the surprise first place Atlanta Braves. While they don't have the pitching of their dynastic run of division titles in the 1990s, there's a lot of talent, and the bullpen has been nearly unstoppable. If the Phillies can overcome their injuries, I have to believe that the addition of Oswalt could very well push them over the edge in that division.

TRADES: Dan Haren!

I've been working on (read: putting off working on) a project for a while now: midseason evaluations for each club based on their Sports Illustrated Baseball preview articles. But the middle of the season has come and gone. The All-Star break has come and gone. The good news is that we're heading full-steam toward the next big milestone: the July 31st Trading Deadline!

Before Sunday, there had only been two really big trades this year: Bengie Molina and Cliff Lee. The fact that both trades involved the Texas Rangers says a lot about their hopes of supplanting the Anaheim Angels from their three-year term of AL West champions. Sunday's big trade says a lot about how the Angels feel about the matter.

I developed a pretty decent system of bullet-points for analyzing trades for my brief coverage of the Cliff Lee deal, and I'm going to stick with it until it fails to cover something important or essential about the trade. So without further ado, here we go:

1. Who Is Involved?

Right-handed starting pitcher Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks. A second round draft pick by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2001, Haren fast-tracked it through the minors, starting 14 games for the big club just three years after being drafted out of Pepperdine University. He pitched out of the bullpen for the 2004 World Series-losing Cardinals, then became the prize piece in a trade with the Oakland Athletics for former "Big Three" member Mark Mulder.

People thought Billy Beane was daft to trade a proven veteran for an untested starter who had torn up the lower minor league levels, but shown just pedestrian numbers in Triple-A. But Haren landed in the 2005 rotation right off the bat, and didn't disappoint for the next three years. His strikeout rate climbed steadily each year, he helped the A's win their first postseason series in 16 years (2006), and he was named to his first All-Star team (2007).

When free agency was looming, he helped the A's once again - by netting them a boatload of prospects in a trade with Arizona. Of the six players acquired in the offseason deal, lefty Brett Anderson is excelling with the A's, slugger Chris Carter is looming on the horizon, and outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham are blossoming into real offensive threats... for the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres, respectively. In these tumultuous post-Moneyball days, the Beane receiveth and the Beane tradeth away...

Once with the Diamondbacks, Haren found his groove, reaching 200 strikeout's and an All-Star team in each of the next two seasons. Call it maturity, call it weaker competition in the National League, but Haren was on his way to stardom. 2010, though: different story. The strikeouts are still coming (his rate of 9.0 per nine innings is the highest of his career), but his hits/home runs allowed - while they've always been high - are now bordering on astronomical. His 161 hits allowed led the league at the time of the trade, and he's now sitting pretty on 23 home runs allowed (after allowing 27 all last year).

2. Where Is He Going?

Strictly speaking, he's going to Anaheim, even though the team that plays there is constantly trying to trick the public into believing they play in Los Angeles. (I really wish he was going to the team that actually does play in Los Angeles, but that's another story.) The Angels are hoping that moving from hitter friendly Chase Field in Phoenix to slightly less hitter friendly Angel Stadium in Anaheim will help drop that 4.60 ERA. They're also banking on an improvement in luck-related numbers: Haren's 2010 BAbip (batting average on balls in play*) of .341 is significantly higher than his career average of .296.

* A pitcher generally has very little control over which balls put in play turn into hits and which turn into outs. It has a little bit to do with line drive/fly ball/ground ball rates, but historically, BAbip tends to gravitate towards a mean of .300 all across the majors. That's why sabermetricians generally attribute a major rise or fall in this department to luck.

They're also playing the intangibles, working on the assumption that heading to a contending team will help Haren improve his focus, as it apparently did for Scott Kazmir last year. But Haren's under team control for potentially three (very expensive) years, so they hope the comparison to Kazmir doesn't hold beyond his brilliant down-the-stretch performance.

3. What They Gave Up To Get Him:

Lefty starter Joe Saunders, who has struggled to a similar ERA as Haren, but who doesn't have nearly as impressive a track record. He has one All-Star season, but he's finished with an ERA under 4.40 exactly once, and has struck out fewer than two batters for every walk in his career. (By way of comparison, Haren's career average is nearly 4.) The good news: he's owed less than half Haren's 2010 salary, and that percentage is only going down as Haren reaches the end of his backloaded 4-year contract.

Patrick Corbin is a fairly respectable lefty starter prospect, who's made 20 solid starts (3.87 ERA, 8.0 K/9) in two different levels of Class-A ball. Rafael Rodriguez is a reliever who's had just over twice as many games in the majors (19) as years in the minors (9). He got a fairly early start, so for all that experience, he's only 25 years old.

There's also a player to be named later (PTBNL), who, I have it on good authority, is 18-year-old lefty starter Tyler Skaggs, a first-round pick by the Angels in last year's draft and Corbin's teammate. Looks like interim GM Jerry Dipoto (a former pitcher) is really hell-bent on stocking his minor league system with young arms.

4. Predictions

The D-Backs' season is basically over (22 games out of first in the NL West), so the impact for them will be in the future. The Angels are right on the cusp of contending (7 games behind the first place Rangers). They have three solid starters (famous All-Star snub Jered Weaver, the resurgent Ervin Santana, and the enigmatic Joel Pineiro) and a below-average offense since losing Kendry Morales for the year. We'll see if trading to their strengths rather than complementing their weaknesses will work out for Mike Scioscia's club, which always seems to outperform projections.

Tuesday at the All-Star Game!

As you may or may not know, I was at the All-Star Game last night! What an exciting time! To hear about it, you should visit the other blog I write for, Charge-Shot!!!

Here's the link to the article. So as not to steal traffic, the whole article will appear here later.

http://www.charge-shot.com/2010/07/tuesday-at-all-star-game.html

All-Stars: Managers' Picks

Down to the wire here - the All-Star Game is TONIGHT (8pm EST on FOX)! If you happen to watch the game, look closely if someone hits a long foul ball down the left-field line - I'll be the one dressed all in green with a huge smile on his face!

AL MANAGER'S PICKS (Joe Girardi)

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
2B	Ty Wigginton	815	11.3	BAL	0.5
3B	Alex Rodriguez	992	14.0	NYY	2.2
SP	Fausto Carmona	727	45.4	CLE	1.5
	Trevor Cahill	806	67.2	OAK	1.5
	C.C. Sabathia	1,052	65.8	NYY	2.3
RP	Joakim Soria	893	30.8	KC	1.5
	Matt Thornton	445	13.9	CHW	1.3

NOTES:
Cahill and Sabathia are ineligible to pitch because they started on Sunday (the last game before the All-Star Break). Wigginton, the only Oriole on the team, is in fact the only Oriole that hasn't shown total offensive inability. Matt Thornton is a lefty setup man rather than a closer - notice the low SWP because of the lack of overvalued saves? I fall into the camp that appreciates Girardi selecting players for functionality rather than star power.


NL MANAGER'S PICKS (Charlie Manuel)

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
1B	Ryan Howard	1,088	14.3	PHI	1.2
2B	Brandon Phillips	1,049	13.4	CIN	2.2
OF	Michael Bourn	844	11.1	HOU	1.9
OF	Chris Young	1,049	13.6	ARI	1.9
UT	Omar Infante	405	7.5	ATL	0.8
SP	Chris Carpenter	1,245	73.2	STL	2.2
	Yovani Gallardo	1,200	70.6	MIL	2.9
	Tim Hudson	1,028	64.3	ATL	3.4
RP	Evan Meek	628	17.4	PIT	1.8
	Arthur Rhodes	479	12.6	CIN	1.6

NOTES:
More picks here, ostensibly because two DH spots aren't included on the NL ballots (which doesn't account for the four extra spots, but, whatever...)
The real puzzler here is Ryan Howard instead of Joey Votto, the NL's best offensive player during the first half. When asked about the decision, Manuel reportedly commented "He's my guy," meaning of course that Howard plays for Manuel's team. Blatant favoritism is inevitable when the All-Star teams are managed by the guys who managed last year's World Series contenders.
Two more setup men here: Meed and Rhodes. Now I'm all for functionality, but Omar Infante? I know he's a utility player who can fit into any position at any point in the game. But less than 200 ABs at the halfway point? He's barely a regular contributor to his team, let alone a full blown All-Star.
Gallardo is out of the game... but this time it's due to injury rather than protest.

There you have it: complete rosters for the 2010 All-Star game (minus the last-minute replacements, about which I was too lazy/uninformed to report on here). I hope you enjoyed reading about the game as much as I will enjoy watching it later!

Trades! - Cliff Lee!

I was just on my way to wrap up my series about the All-Star rosters until I caught wind of the very first megadeal of the season: Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee goes to the Rangers for prospects and cash. This trade bolsters Texas's rotation for their hopeful playoff push and restocks the Mariners' farm system with prospects, while also keeping (arguably) the best left-handed starter in the game away from the superpowers (i.e. Yankees or Red Sox) or the lovable hopefulls (i.e. Dodgers or Rays).

There are a number of things to look at when evaluating a big deal like this.

No. 1 - Who Is Involved?

Who exactly is Cliff Lee, and how well is he doing this year. Maybe you'll remember when he won the Cy Young award in 2008 for the Indians. You might recall his name as the key player in a dramatic deadline to deal that sent him to the Phillies last year. Or you might remember him by his stellar performance in the 2009 Post-Season, where he won all four of his starts, including two in the World Series against the Yankees. Or maybe you remember hearing the name in mid-December, when he was sent to the Mariners in the trade that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Or perhaps you've heard of his genuinely stupid 14.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio (89-6: the major league record is 11.00).

So yeah, the Rangers are getting a pretty formidable weapon. Perhaps even the AL's starter for the 2010 All-Star Game. The Rangers are also getting serviceable reliever Mark Lowe, who was good last year, but made just 11 appearances in 2010 before undergoing back surgery. And some cash - but more on that later.

2. Where Is He Going?

The Rangers are currently tops in the AL West with the 3rd best record in the league. He joins a rotation made up of two solid veterans with storied pasts (Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson), a struggling former ace (Scott Feldman), and a hot young prospect (Tommy Hunter) taking over for an injured always-hopeful (Rich Harden). Four solid slots. The fifth starter spot has thus far been filled with ragtags (Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Dustin Nippert, and Omar Beltre).

Lee's arrival makes him the de facto ace. Behind him are C.J. Wilson, who was the team's closer just nine short months ago, and Colby Lewis, fresh off his re-introduction to America from two successful years in Japan. Feldman won 17 games last year, but has struggled to the tune of a 5.51 ERA this year. Rich Harden was even worse when he was healthy (5.68 ERA, 1.677 WHIP), and it was the stellar play of his replacement - 23-year-old Tommy Hunter (2.34 ERA supporting his 5-0 record) - that has kept the Rangers in the hunt.

As you can see, Lee gives the Rangers five solid starting pitchers who can take the mound every five days, four of whom look to have above-average talent. Pretty formidable indeed.

3. What Was the Cost of Acquiring Him?

The Rangers gave up three players to get Lee. They shipped away their erstwhile starting first baseman Justin Smoak, a first-round draft pick from 2008. In this, his first year in the majors, Smoak hasn't been able to get in the groove (.670 OPS, more than 200 points less than his .872 career mark in the minors over 135 games).

21-year-old Blake Beavan, a first-round draft pick from 2007, has racked up a 10-5 record and a 2.78 ERA in 17 AA starts this year. Josh Lueke, a 25-year-old reliever, has torn up A ball, but has come down to earth in AA. Matt Lawson has been taking up space at second base in AA. Basically two players with potential, two less so.

4. What's Up With That Cash?

The Rangers are currently bankrupt, and are in the process of finding a new owner. In the interim, they are owned by the league - a joint committee of representatives from the 13 other teams. The Mariners are sending $2.25 million to help pay for the $4 million owed to Lee. But that extra $1.5 million taken on by the Rangers (while that same amount is nothing more than rounding error for what the Yankees pay Alex Rodriguez alone) might be a snag in the eyes of the bankruptcy court.

If that's the case, we could have a situation similar to what Montreal went through when they traded for Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd in 2002. Those deals - the first of which, oddly enough involved Cliff Lee going from the Expos to the Indians - saw the bankrupt and ownerless Expos take on significant portions of Colon's and Floyd's salaries - $4.9 million and $6.5 million respectively. The league nixed the excessive spending, despite the team's playoff hopes, and all but forced them to spin Floyd off to the significantly more financially secure Red Sox after just 15 games in Montreal.

A similar scenario is unlikely, given the Rangers' solid spot in the standings and the relatively small amount of debt changing hands - even in a recession, $1.5 million is not a lot for baseball team owners.

5. Predictions

This deal definitely bolsters the Rangers rotation against any attacks from the defending champion Angels, who seem to have a near-magical knack for scoring runs against all odds. I hope it does: it's time for some new blood atop the AL West Even if it can't be green and gold, anyone is better than that Anaheim scum...

All-Stars: NL Player Ballot

Without further ado: Here are the players chosen by the players to appear on the National League's All-Star squad:

NL Player Ballot: BATTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
C	Brian McCann	768	11.5	ATL	2.5
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	1,099	14.3	SD	3.6
2B	Martin Prado	1,060	13.6	ATL	2.2
SS	Troy Tulowitzki*	917	14.8	COL	2.5
	Jose Reyes	1,036	14.2	NYM	1.0
3B	Scott Rolen	1,046	14.7	STL	2.5
OF	Corey Hart	1,094	15.6	MIL	2.5
OF	Matt Holliday	1,036	13.6	STL	2.6
OF	Marlon Byrd	940	12.2	CHC	1.7

McCann is a good pick, as he leads NL catchers in both OPS and WAR. Prado will start in place of the injured Chase Utley - which actually works out in terms of the numbers, as Prado's OPS is 25 points higher than Utley's (the two are tied in terms of WAR). The shortstop choice vindicates me once again: Tulowitzki received the most votes at the position (who's incidentally worth half a win more than starter Hanley Ramirez), but he'll be replaced because of injury.

Rolen and Ryan Zimmerman (another FINAL VOTE candidate) are neck and neck in terms of performance, but Rolen gets the edge in voting because he has shown somewhat of a career resurgence (see also the presence of Corey Hart and Marlon Byrd, the latter of which seems to be getting some retroactive credit for his great 2009 in Texas).

If Jason Heyward isn't able to play because of injury, his replacement in the lineup will likely come from this group. Byrd seems the most apt choice, roster-wise, because of his ability to play center field (the other two starters are corner guys Ryan Braun and Andre Ethier). But He's currently being beaten in the balloting by two superior (offensive) players. We'll see what happens.

The most notable snub here is NL OPS leader Joey Votto, but he's all but assured a spot through the FINAL VOTE proceedings. But plenty of experts have already written about snubs, so I'll leave the subject (at least until later).

NL Player Ballot: PITCHERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	1,561	97.6	COL	4.2
	Roy Halladay	1,371	80.6	PHI	4.2
	Josh Johnson	1,396	87.3	FLA	4.5
	Tim Lincecum	1,086	67.9	SF	2.2
	Adam Wainwright	1,427	83.9	STL	3.7
RP	Matt Capps	845	23.5	WAS	0.2
	Brian Wilson	1,015	32.7	SF	1.7
	Jonathan Broxton	962	28.3	LAD	1.5

If the NL has ever had a chance of overcoming its 12-year winless streak, it has to be this year because of the unbelievable selection of pitchers. Even after falling back to earth somewhat, Ubaldo Jimenez is still having an unreal (read: unsustainable?) year. Not only has Halladay thrown a perfect game (like Dallas Braden) but he has also managed to win a game since then (unlike Dallas Braden). Josh Johnson might be the best pitcher in the league (he is according to ERA and WAR). Lincecum is scary, even if he's not performing up to his career standards. And Wainwright is his characteristic awesome self.

The relievers constitute a group of unexpected success stories (Capps) and absolute badasses (MMA enthusiast Brian Wilson & 6'4" 300 lb. Jonathan Broxton). Not bad for one-inning guys in a format where every pitcher is essentially a one-inning guy.

Next post will round out the All-Star teams (Manager's Picks), which will hopefully provide adequate preparation for all you fans seeking a more complete picture of the 2010 Midsummer Classic.

All-Stars: AL Player Ballot

To continue my five-part preview of the 2010 All-Star game, here are the players voted to the AL squad via the player ballot.

Really? The players themselves get to decide which players accompany the fan-voted starters on the All-Star team? I have to plead ignorance regarding how long this has been the case. Judging by Bill Plaschke's whining, it wasn't always this way.

I agree with Bill's problems with the practice: too much of it could be based on reputation rather than talent. I assume that there are restrictions in place preventing players from voting for themselves (to avoid a Pirate King scenario... I can't believe I just linked to that movie, I hated that movie), but there can't be similar restrictions against voting for one's friends/family/or even teammates. But so it goes.

AL Player Ballot: BATTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
C	Victor Martinez*	823	12.5	BOS	1.2
	John Buck	678	10.6	TOR	1.6
1B	Miguel Cabrera	1,385	18.5	DET	3.3
2B	Dustin Pedroia*	1,140	15.6	BOS	3.6
	Ian Kinsler	723	13.4	TEX	1.9
SS	Elvis Andrus	893	12.1	TEX	1.2
3B	Adrian Beltre	1,085	14.3	BOS	3.0
OF	Vernon Wells	1,129	14.5	TOR	1.4
OF	Jose Bautista	1,094	14.0	TOR	1.9
OF	Torii Hunter	1,040	13.9	LAA	2.2
DH	David Ortiz	962	14.8	BOS	1.6

The (*) symbol denotes a player who will not be able to participate due to injury. The player directly below him is his replacement.

(Also, I apologize if the formatting of the charts isn't quite as uniform as I'd like it (weird underlining or different fonts/sizes). If you're a purist, usually opening the individual post on its own will solve the problem.)

The first thing I noticed about the ballot is the absence of Kurt Suzuki, a better/more well-rounded catcher than Buck. But I guess the players love a good lots-of-power-out-of-nowhere story (also see Jose Bautista with his league-leading 20 home runs at the halfway point, already a career high).

Cabrera at first might end up having the highest swp of any All-Star, but it's likely his defense that gives him a lower WAR than starting first baseman Justin Morneau. I can't help but feel vindicated by the presence of Elvis Andrus, my choice for starting shortstop.

It's a shame that both the player ballot and the fan ballot include spaces for dedicated DH's. Not that the Joe Girardi will have any danger of running out of players with a roster of 34, but of those 34, two can't play in the field at all, and two more can't play beyond first base. I guess we can expect lots of pinch hits.

AL Player Ballot: PITCHERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
SP	David Price	1,142	76.1	TB	2.7
	Clay Buchholz	977	65.1	BOS	2.6
	Jon Lester	1,193	74.6	BOS	3.5
	Phil Hughes	958	68.4	NYY	1.1
	Cliff Lee	1,134	94.5	SEA	2.9
RP	Neftali Feliz	996	28.5	TEX	1.1
	Mariano Rivera	952	32.8	NYY	1.7
	Jose Valverde	1,021	30.0	DET	1.7

I'll show you the numbers for the NL pitchers next time, but I'll give you a spoiler: the AL just doesn't have as scary a combo as Halladay, Lincecum, Josh Johnson, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Lee has been awesome, but in roughly 2/3 of the starts as his counterparts. Otherwise, I see four stellar pitchers, but not one lights-out, unreal, season-on-the-line ace type. But maybe I just lack the imagination of the players.

I was surprised at Phil Hughes's low WAR, since the general reaction to his season has been amazement. But I was not so surprised at the low WARs of the relievers. It's like guru-Neyer always says: a pitcher who throws 60-70 innings, however dominant, won't help your team as much as a pitcher who throws 180-200 innings.

You'll notice their inflated swp, but that's because saves are totally and completely overrated (30 swp per save - the same as wins, which are also totally overrated!). But that's where the stars come out: at the end of the game, in close situations.

All-Stars: The FINAL VOTE

As promised, I will now evaluate the All-Stars (and potential All-Stars) who were not voted as starters by the fans. I decided to start with the ten FINAL VOTE candidates (five from each league), even though none of them have officially made the team, because their situations are the most urgent - voting ends on Thursday. And in an effort to make a more informed voting decision myself, I figure I would post my decision-making process for posterity.

AL FINAL VOTE Candidates

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
1B	Paul Konerko	1,122	15.8	CHW	2.6
OF	Nick Swisher	994	13.8	NYY	2.3
OF	Delmon Young	836	11.8	MIN	0.5
3B	Michael Young	1,150	14.9	TEX	2.1
1B	Kevin Youkilis	1,244	16.6	BOS	3.3

By the numbers - both sabermetric and outdated-fantasy style - Youkilis is the obvious choice. The only problem is that the roster already includes two first basemen, and might be better served with a batter with more versatility. But with 34 roster spots and a DH slot available, I'd 100% go with the most productive offensive player.


NL FINAL VOTE Candidates

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team	WAR
RP	Heath Bell	1,039	31.5	SD	1.2
OF	Carlos Gonzalez	1,005	15.0	COL	1.4
1B	Joey Votto	1,242	17.0	CIN	3.2
RP	Billy Wagner	1,052	32.9	ATL	1.4
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	924	13.0	WAS	2.2

Again, the most productive player on the list is Votto, another first baseman. Notable here is the inclusion of two relief pitchers, where the AL list had none. Bell and Wagner have both been having amazing seasons - certainly more impressive statistically than setup men Arthur Rhodes and Evan Meek. But on a roster that already includes five relievers and almost twice as many starters, is another short term arm really necessary?

YOU DECIDE!

ALL-STARS: Fan-Voted Starters

So it's official: the 2010 All-Star Game starters have been announced! Not just the starters, but the reserves as well! Everyone but the FINAL VOTE, on which the fans get to vote until Thursday. I've got some other projects in the fire, so I'll just run down the fan-selected starters, including their first-half swp.

Just to clarify, the first half of the season runs from the beginning of April till the end of June - exactly three months, as the baseball season ends in September (or sometimes the first days of October). This is also, coincidentally, the date All-Star voting ends.

AL STARTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team
C	Joe Mauer	801	12.7	MIN
1B	Justin Morneau	1,246	16.6	MIN
2B	Robinson Cano	1,271	16.5	NYY
SS	Derek Jeter	979	13.1	NYY
3B	Evan Longoria	1,186	15.6	TB
OF	Ichiro Suzuki	951	12.4	SEA
OF	Josh Hamilton	1,327	18.4	TEX
OF	Carl Crawford	1,238	16.7	TB
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	1,280	17.5	TEX

As you can see, six of my nine picks made the team. Re: those who didn't: You know my feeling about Jeter, but at least Elvis Andrus will be on the team via the Player's Ballot. I somehow completely overlooked Josh Hamilton, who leads all All-Stars in swp - he probably would have gotten my vote. Carl Crawford is obviously a deserving candidate.


NL STARTERS

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team
C	Yadier Molina	492	7.1	STL
1B	Albert Pujols	1,288	16.7	STL
2B	Chase Utley	999	13.9	PHI
SS	Hanley Ramirez	1,178	15.5	FLA
3B	David Wright	1,233	16.0	NYM
OF	Ryan Braun	1,155	15.2	MIL
OF	Andre Ethier	939	15.7	LAD
OF	Jason Heyward	912	12.8	ATL

6 for 8 on these, if you count my original votes - 7 for 8 if you count my second round when I substituted Wright for Ryan Zimmerman at third base. (Zimmerman is included as one of the NL's five FINAL VOTE, so he might well get the chance to represent.) Yadier Molina is a mystifying pick - he's known for his prowess in the field (9 runs above average this year), but he's totally anemic with the stick (.616 OPS). A little one-sided for an All-Star, in my opinion. But NL catchers were kind of weak this year, and Molina's a fan favorite from a big market.

Utley, who won't be able to play, as he's recovering from thumb surgery, will be replaced by Martin Prado, the top vote-getter at second base in the fan balloting. Heyward is questionable (also having thumb troubles), but his replacement is yet to be determined.

I'll cover the various levels of reserves in the days to come (player ballots, manager's picks, and FINAL VOTE spots). For now, happy fourth and enjoy the All-Star hype. Oh, yeah, and I'll be there in person to enjoy all the festivities. Just to gush for a quick second.

Trades!

Well, it's July. And with the trading deadline less than a month away, we're about to see a flurry of moves from clubs looking to a) improve their playoff chances, b) shed unnecessary roster pieces, or c) stock up with prospects for the future.

The first of these moves came yesterday, as the SF Giants shipped lumbering catcher Bengie Molina to the TEX Rangers. There have of course been some lower profile moves earlier in the season, but yesterday's trade involved the teams with the best chance of making the playoffs and the player(s) with the most chance of playing a significant role. Here's the story behind the move.

The Rangers were supposed to be set behind the plate, but when backstops Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden were both sent down to Triple-A, the Rangers were forced to name perennial backup Matt Treanor their starting catcher. Aside from fulfilling the American Dream of being married to an Olympic Women's Beach Volleyball Champion, Treanor doesn't have a very impressive resume.

After Bengie Molina's contract with the Giants expired last winter, he spent most of the off-season looking for a job. Some thought he would be a perfect fit on the Mets, until they ended up signing Rod Barajas. Suffice it to say, nobody foresaw him returning to the Giants on a one-year $4.5 million contract; not with top catching prospect Buster Posey on the fast track to the majors.

But return he did, and play poorly he also did: in his 61 games behind the plate for the Giants, he was worth roughly half a win less than an average replacement catcher. Nevertheless, the Rangers must have been attracted to his "veteran presence." Not that they gave up much to get him - Chris Ray has been a decent reliever on a team full of better ones, and Michael Main is an unheralded starting pitching prospect who hasn't pitched above Class-A.

Will Molina's bat heat up in pitcher-friendly Arlington? Or will the switch to the American League negate any potential upturn? Will the slowest baserunner in the game gum up the works behind speedsters Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon? Or will he fall into line with former Angels teammate Vladimir Guerrero and have a similar career resurgence in Texas? Only time will tell!