One of the distinct joys of Baseball's off-season is the release of the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue. Even though it comes out just days before the new season starts - in order to feature the most accurate and up-to-date rosters and predictions - nothing compares to the excitement and anticipation that comes from poring over the lineups and rotations that are likely to grace the field this season.
For the rest of the season, this issue becomes a great reference resource for checking back on the experts' expectations of how the season will go down. In terms of predictions, they usually just reproduce the standings from last year, with one or two notable exceptions (this year it was that the Rockies would beat the Dodgers in the NL West).
The real gold from the issue comes in the form of projected lineups and pitching rotations. For the whole first month or so of the season, I rarely watch games without referring back to the issue to see how well the projections hold up, before real life sets in and the status quo changes. I particularly like the magazine format because it displays such a crystallized view of the future. Everything's put down in ink, which forces the writers to be accountable for their work. It's also nice to have something to hold in your hands, in this increasingly electronic age.
In my effort to "widen my gaze" and pay attention to the broad scope of things, I am especially interested in predicted pitching rotations. Seeing how the on-paper versions stack up to reality definitely takes patience, because it takes five starts to get one time through the rotation. Also, so much can change between starts that a five-starter rotation rarely stays the same for a long time.
Pitching Rotations are also interesting to cover because there seems to be a dearth in starting pitcher depth lately. Coming into the season, nearly every team in the majors was struggling to find a proven "fifth starter." This was such an epidemic that my favorite (or, second-favorite, after myself) Baseball blogger, Rob Neyer, devoted a whole series to "Fifth Starter Watch." Most of the spots throughout the season will turn out to be more or less revolving doors, with three or four different pitchers combining for the 30 or so starts that usually come out of one spot in the rotation. But Sports Illustrated only gives you five spots, and the Good Predictors have to come up with a five-man rotation for each team.
Off the top of my head, here are some predictions that were immediately cancelled:
Oakland A's: Trevor Cahill would have been the A's fifth starter but for injury. He was replaced with Gio Gonzalez. But with Brett Anderson recently headed to the DL and Cahill slated to come back to the majors soon, we might see a further shakeup.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Eric Stults lost the competition to knuckleballer Charlie Haeger prior to the season... and immediately took off for Japan. Hiroki Kuroda and his translator (Kenji Nimura) brokered a deal for Stults to pitch for Kuroda's former team, where experts predict he might turn into a star... or at least garner a big payday, as did Colby Lewis after returning from the Land of the Rising Sun.
Cincinnati Reds: This one was a battle right down to the end between Mike Leake and Travis Wood; Sports Illustrated just put their money behind the wrong horse. It might not matter much in the long run, seeing as both appear to be close to Major League ready, and they could both make decent contributions.
Baltimore Orioles: Chris Tillman would have had the job... if he didn't completely drop the ball in Spring Training. He was replaced by David Hernandez.
BIG NEWS HERE, I know. But it's always fun to test our collective predictive powers against what actually comes to pass.
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