Except for a couple of outliers, it kind of follows a nice-looking pattern, doesn't it? Regression to the mean is a powerful force.
Next, here's the legend, in descending order from average swp. Some of the colors are difficult to differentiate; I apologize - my graph-making sensibilities haven't progressed much beyond the third grade.
[1B] - RED = First Basemen (avg. swp = 2,455)
[LF] - BROWN = Left Fielders (2,194)
[2B] - BLUE = Second Basemen (2,168)
[RF] - ORANGE = Right Fielders (2,092)
[3B] - GREEN = Third Basemen (2,040)
[SS] - BLACK = Shortstops (1,998)
[CF] - PURPLE = Center Fielders (1,976)
[DH] - YELLOW = Designated Hitters (1,879)
[C] - GRAY = Catchers (1,577)
As expected, first basemen lead the pack in every rank. Led by such powerhouses as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira, first base proves again that it's the most reliable spot to find offense on the diamond. It's no coincidence that first base is also one of the least demanding defensive positions in the game, so it's easier to find a big bat without much athletic ability, teach him how to dig the occasional low throw out of the dirt, and watch him swing away.
DRAFT VERDICT: whenever in the draft you chance to draft a first baseman, chances are he'll produce for you. Also a good position with which to fill your DH slot.
The next least-demanding fielding position, left field, is next on the list. The far and away leader is Ryan Braun, a guy who converted to left after committing too many errors at his original position (third base) during a campaign in which he nevertheless won Rookie of the Year honors (2007). Two guys who made big free agent splashes this year (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday) flank someone who will likely make a big splash next year (Carl Crawford), then there's a sharp decline.
VERDICT: If you can get a good one fast, jump on it. Otherwise, don't depend on a left fielder to carry your offense.
Second base was anomalous this year, plain and simple. Among the top guys, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia are the only good bets to repeat their top-flite performances. Aaron Hill was a straight-up fluke (there, I said it), Ben Zobrist and Robinson Cano will almost certainly regress toward the mean, and Brian Roberts has been dealing with a balky back. There's still a lot of potential here, just don't expect them to reach the same level as last year.
VERDICT: Considering these guys play in the middle infield, they've been pretty darn consistent, and promise to carry that trend through 2010.
One look at the line of right fielders from 2009 is enough to show us that we're no longer in the mid-to-late-90's, when guys like Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, and Vladimir Guerrero absolutely dominated the sport. Right field has become a picture of consistency, featuring stars like Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, and Bobby Abreu. These guys can still definitely carry your lineup, but they won't knock your socks off like the previous stalwarts of the position.
VERDICT: Right fielders are so consistent that you're bound to get a solid player no matter where you draft one.
The hot corner is not only one of the more dependable positions, it's also one of the more diverse. You have power guys like Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds, but you also have leadoff-type hitters Chone Figgins (although he may move to second base in 2010) and Michael Young (who moved from second base, and then later shortstop). With Alex Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez slated to play full seasons and David Wright hopefully turning back into David Wright, there should be a glut of good third basemen to choose from.
VERDICT: Go big or go home. There's a lot of talent here, but a good one can make your franchise, and a bad one will leave you wondering why you didn't pick up a good one in the early rounds.
A shortstop's main role is to be the captain of the infield, so skills with the glove have always taken the forefront over skills with the bat. That being said, the past couple of decades have always featured an elite group of shorstops: A-Rod and Nomar in the 90's, Rollins and Reyes in the 00's, and Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitski headlining the group heading into the 10's.
VERDICT: Unless you get one of the two or three superstars (Derek Jeter qualified here last year, but his age is bound to catch up to him), you're more likely than not to field an offensive placeholder at this position.
You run into the same problem with center fielders that you do with shortstops: your CF's main role is to take charge of your defense, and everything else is a bonus. Because of the speed necessary to cover a lot of ground in the outfield, you'll usually see center fielders steal a lot of bases (Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino), but occasionally you'll see one with a little pop as well (Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson).
VERDICT: Try to get a fast one, but don't sweat it if he's not a five-tool kind of guy.
If you have an eye for detail, you probably noticed that there's only five DH candidates. That's because less than half the teams in the majors feature the DH spot in their lineup, and of those teams, few employ a full-time DH. Two of the guys on this list (Jason Kubel and Jack Cust) played significant time in the outfield for their clubs, and a third (Adam Lind) could play left field in a pinch. The Angels will supposedly give Hideki Matsui a try in the outfield. David Ortiz, however, is not going anywhere.
VERDICT: Not at all important to focus on one of these guys, as you can plug any player into the DH slot. Only go after a full-time DH if he's a superstar and you have backups at all your other positions.
Last but not least, we have the catchers. Wait a minute - they're last and least. The top couple of guys (Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez) compare with the leaders of other positions, and there are a couple of serviceable guys below them (Brian McCann and Kurt Suzuki). But other than that, it's kind of an embarrassing crop of players.
VERDICT: If you have a choice between an elite catcher and a good infielder or a decent outfielder, definitely go for it. But don't pass up a chance to pick up a player who spends more time practicing the art of hitting than working with pitchers and studying the habits of opposing batters.
So there you have it: a graphical representation of the best position players in 2009. Looking at it closely, I'm not sure how much it really edifies the economics of the fantasy draft. But I had fun doing it, and I hope you had fun reading about it.
Next time (or eventually): A similar Graph, featuring Pitchers rather than Position Players.
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