Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Lists: An Introduction

Today is the one week anniversary of the end of the 2009 baseball season. Now that the hubbub has died down a bit and we've finally got some much needed distance between us and the New York Yankees' 27th World Championship, we can start looking back at the 2009 season in a more objective light.

The first thing I always do after any baseball season - as soon as the regular-season statistics are officially in the books - is to buckle down and start making lists. I start with one list per team. Each list acts as a summary of who played where, when, and how well for any given team over the course of the season in question.

Most of the raw data for these lists comes from the baseball-reference.com, but for my versions, I make some alterations to the style and the content. I change some of the criteria for inclusion in the lists, I use a different method of skill evaluation, and I make the presentation more informative.

The lists include one player per position per team. I include a DH spot for National League teams purely for the purpose of comparison: if AL teams have nine batters per lineup, it only seems fair to give NL teams nine as well. For the NL, I usually use the DH to represent someone who has played a lot of games but not at one specific position - an important team player who's not quite at the level of a starter.

The position players are arranged according to the spots they occupied in the batting order, as accurately as possible.

The list also includes pitchers, separated into two groups: starters and relievers. In order to qualify as a list-worthy starting pitcher, over half the pitcher's appearances that season must have been starts. There's also a minimum requirement of games started/innings pitched, but these cutoffs are specific to each team.

To be eligible for list inclusion, closers must meet two criteria: at least 30% of their total appearances must have been in save situations, and they must have appeared in at least 30% of their team's save situations. Relief pitchers must have started in no more than 10% of their appearances.

Each team is also allowed a third category of pitcher, sometimes referred to as swingman, spot starter, or utility pitcher. This category encompasses pitchers who have started somewhere between 10% and 50% of their games: not quite durable/reliable enough to hold down a spot in the rotation, but not so specialized that they've pitched all of their games out of the bullpen. Each team is allotted six slots for non-starters: closers, middle relievers, and swingmen.

The method of evaluation I use is the admittedly outdated SWP fantasy baseball point system. Yes, that means wading through all the players and converting their raw stats into swp. But nowadays with computer programs it's really not as time-consuming as all that. And in my case, it truly is a labor of love.

If a player was traded/released during the course of the season, his name is marked with a *. If a player was acquired/signed, his name is marked with a ^. In these cases, only the numbers put up while a player was with the team in question count toward his team's total swp.

I'm not going to reproduce every list here, because I don't want to spend the time, and frankly, I'll bet you all don't have the attention span. I will, however, produce a few lists of teams with which I/some loyal readers of this blog would appreciate.

First, the World Series winning New York Yankees:

-->
POS NAME swp swp/g
SS Derek Jeter 2,306 15.1
LF Johnny Damon 2,124 14.9
1B Mark Teixeira 2,581 16.5
3B Alex Rodriguez 2,032 16.4
DH Hideki Matsui 1,706 12.0
C Jorge Posada 1,447 13.0
2B Robinson Cano 2,180 13.5
RF Nick Swisher 1,848 12.3
CF Melky Cabrera 1,475 9.6




SP C.C. Sabathia 2,266 66.6

A.J. Burnett 1,515 45.9

Andy Pettitte 1,399 42.7

Joba Chamberlain 834 26.1




CL Mariano Rivera 2,141 32.4
P Phil Hughes 1,068 20.9
RP Alfredo Aceves 1,002 23.3

Phil Coke 557 7.7

David Robertson 459 10.2

Brian Bruney 373 8.5

As you can see, not a lot of player movement this season: they had enough money to buy the solutions to any holes in their lineup before the season, rather than having to make midseason trades. Also, note that the Yanks had only four reliable starting pitchers for most of the season, as opposed to the usual five.

Now the World Series losing Philadelphia Phillies:

-->
POS NAME swp swp/g
SS Jimmy Rollins 2,117 13.7
CF Shane Victorino 2,077 13.3
2B Chase Utley 2,512 16.1
1B Ryan Howard 2,660 16.6
RF Jayson Werth 2,318 14.6
LF Raul Ibanez 2,026 15.1
3B Pedro Feliz 1,435 9.1
C Carlos Ruiz 938 8.8
DH Greg Dobbs 366 3.8 3B/LF





SP Joe Blanton 1,454 46.9

Cole Hamels 1,344 42.0

J.A. Happ 1,557 44.5

Jamie Moyer 882 29.4

^Cliff Lee 807 67.3





CL Brad Lidge 848 12.7
P Chan Ho Park 494 11.0
RP Ryan Madson 999 12.6

Chad Durbin 431 7.3

Clay Condrey 485 10.8

Scott Eyre 316 7.5

Greg Dobbs is a good example of the utilization of the DH spot on an NL team to represent a bit player rather than a ninth starter. Crunching the numbers shows us how key was Cliff Lee's acquisition: he was the best pitcher on the team after his arrival, according to his points per game (ppg). Also, compare the numbers of a great closer (Mo Rivera's 32.4 ppg) to the numbers of a rotten closer (Lidge's 12.7).

Well, that's it for now - I don't want to saturate you all with too many lists all at once. But now that there aren't any actual games to report, I'll have all the time in the world to hone my lists and keep them coming to all you baseball-maniacs out there.

No comments:

Post a Comment