NLCS Game 3

I watched this game in the only suitable fashion for a mostly sane but also somewhat upsettable Dodgers fan: delayed by DVR and fast-forwarded as fast as possible until the 6th inning. Don't get me wrong, I would have fast-forwarded longer had I not caught up to the live broadcast: this game was (according to the LA Times and their penchant for puns) Ug-Lee. After the Phillies set the tone with 6 runs off Hiroki Kuroda over 1 1/3 innings, there just wasn't more worth watching in detail.

The Dodgers' offense put up zero after zero the whole game. Whether they were intimidated by the Philly crowd, stymied by change in the weather (93 degrees in game 2 compared to 47 degrees and dropping in game 3), or whether Cliff Lee was just that good, the boys in blue couldn't seem to get anything going. The Phillies' bats predictably exploded upon the return to their bandbox of a home ballpark, blasting doubles, triples, home runs, you name it. Baseball-reference had the Phillies' win probability at 100% with one out in the 6th inning. This game was an open and shut case almost from the moment it began.

But the big question surrounding Game 3 arose even before the first pitch: Why would Joe Torre pick Kuroda to start over Randy Wolf? Wolf pitched much more consistently than Kuroda in 2009, leading the league with 34 starts, as opposed to Kuroda's 20. When Kuroda was healthy, the two pitchers were pretty comparable: Wolf had a better ERA (3.23 to 3.76), but Kuroda had a better strikeout to walk ratio (3.63 to 2.76). The difference, though, is that Kuroda had a tough time staying healthy all year. After his first start (4/6) he was shut down until June with an oblique strain. We all know what happened on August 15, when a line drive that caromed off Kuroda's upper head and ended up in the stands behind home plate on one bounce sent him to the DL with a concussion for another 21 days. He pitched very well after coming back (3-2 record, 2.79 ERA, 24 strikeouts in 29 innings over 5 starts), but missed his final scheduled start of the regular season (and was kept off the Dodgers' roster in the first round of the playoffs) due to neck stiffness.

Last night was Kuroda's first time pitching in a game since allowing 7 runs over 4 innings on September 28. I know hindsight is always 20/20, but watching him pitch so poorly over the first two innings of last night's game, one can't help but wonder if he was really ready to come back. He pitched very well in the 2008 post-season, including a win against the Phillies at Dodger Stadium. But given his recent injuries and the lack of time he had to prepare/regain his timing and composure, it seemed like he wasn't the best choice to plug into a high-pressure, low-temperature situation.

Meanwhile, Randy Wolf has had plenty of rest since his Game 1 start of the Division Series against St. Louis. He didn't pitch very well in that game, but his year-long consistency should inspire enough faith in him for Torre to let him pitch twice in the NLCS. In a four-man rotation, the pitchers who start games 1-3 would also pitch games 5-7 respectively, if necessary. Not that Kuroda wouldn't give his team a good chance to win in games 3 and 7, but as a manager, wouldn't Joe Torre want to reward consistently good performance and limit the unpredictability that comes with a pitcher just returning from an injury?

That's the logical argument for Torre making a different decision than he did. Here's a karmic, gut-reaction defense of his choices:

Let's look at what was facing the Dodgers for this game. Sure, they were coming off a win, but it was a comeback win at the eleventh hour - not a win where they were decidedly in control. It was their first game in Philadelphia, where the crowd and the cold weather (to which the southern California boys had relatively no time to adjust) would come into play most drastically. And furthermore, they were slated to face the Phillies' indisputable staff ace in Cliff Lee. Now, as well as Randy Wolf pitched all season, Cliff Lee pitched better, even split between both leagues. This is more hindsight, but not even a great performance by Wolf would have made any difference against Lee's eight shutout innings. And this is now foresight, but an 11-0 blowout looks the same in the loss column as a 3-0 pitchers' duel.

This is just pure counterfactualism, but if one of your pitchers is going to give up 11 runs, wouldn't you rather have him give up those 11 runs in a game that you were not favored to win anyway? That way you have your best pitcher poised and ready to pitch in a game where the odds aren't as stacked against you: a game when you have Joe Blanton pitching against you instead of Cliff Lee, and when you've already had some time to adjust to the weather. This hypothesis ascribes some pretty risky (and unlikely) game-theoretical reasoning to Joe Torre, but if his strategy happens to work out, you can say you heard it here first.

Now this next part is just blatant wishful thinking, but it's very possible that by scoring 11 runs last night (and a combined 20 runs over the first three games of this series), the Phillies exhausted much of the share of runs set aside for them by the cosmic karmic forces of baseball. I haven't done the research, but we see a similar phenomenon repeat itself in the Home Run Derby: Jason Giambi (for example) hits 14 home runs in the first round, but then runs out of gas in the later rounds. Although he hit more total homers (20) than the eventual winner (Luis Gonzalez, 16), he could have won had he spaced out those first round homers over the course of the entire competition. Maybe this phenomenon holds true for teams in the playoffs as well as for individual players competing in an exhibition. And maybe it will work against the Phillies. Or maybe it's just hooey. Either way, here's looking forward to Game 4!