WBC17 Rosters: Finalists

Brandon Crawford steps to bat in the WBC finals!

I am pro-WBC, as evidenced by my previous posts on (mostly) the 2013 tournament, and I was lucky enough to be able to attend the final game of the 2017 classic with some friends at Dodger Stadium, and let me tell you, I found it to be a tremendous baseball experience all around. We had positive interactions with fans of both teams, the atmosphere was overwhelming, and the actual game, while not exactly of the nail-biting variety, was still exciting and interesting and well-played. The only negative vibe I witnessed was an aggressive Dodger fan who illogically took vocal issue at a fellow Team USA supporter's Giants hat. I had been following the lineups and rosters of each team in the WBC leading up to the finals, and so before we get into whatever might have happened after the game, let's do some analysis of who played in this game.

Alex Bregman is the only player on Team USA spent the majority of his time in the minor leagues in 2016.

As can be seen by comparing this lineup to the last tournament's Team USA, there are actually only four holdover players. Adam Jones was of course at the center of both highlight reel plays and highlight reel controversies. Giancarlo Stanton played last year before signing his mega-extension with the Marlins, and also before the StatCast revolution named him tops in the exit velocity department. Jonathan Lucroy has played second fiddle behind the plate twice now, first to Joe Mauer and then to Buster Posey. Eric Hosmer only made that 2013 team as a replacement for Mark Teixeira and ended up replacing USA starting first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in the field after one game. I was somewhat confused by the prolonged use of a player with a less impressive track record - maybe it's that he's left handed, maybe it's his prior WBC experience - but it seemed to work out in the end.

Both Eddie Rosario and T.J. Rivera raked at the highest level of the minors while putting up average numbers in MLB.

On the other side, Puerto Rico had one more holdover from last time around. Angel Pagan and Carlos Beltran reprised their roles as leadoff man and cleanup hitter, respectively. 2013 bench bat Eddie Rosario was promoted to everyday left fielder, but Mike Aviles remained on the bench, garnering only two starts throughout pool play. Meanwhile, PR team captain Yadier Molina reprised his roles behind the plate and in front of the microphones, when he fired back at Jones's comments. Apparently Team USA didn't appreciate that their opponents prearranged a celebratory parade prior to the final game, while Molina takes issue with how the Americans celebrate victory. My sense is that this public spat is just a residue of the competitive juices that were flowing all throughout this tournament, and hopefully it won't bleed into the regular season.

Pretty impressive rotation, even without Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, etc.

Team USA totally overhauled their pitching staff following the last go round of this tournament, with late-inning-high-leverage reliever Luke Gregerson being the only returning pitcher. His inclusion points to a pitching strategy that prioritizes top flight relief talent, including 2016 post-season hero Andrew Miller and the recipient of the richest free agent contract ever bestowed on a US-born player, Mark Melancon. Even though Max Scherzer had to bow out of the WBC due to injury and while Marcus Stroman pitched a gem in the finals, a lot has been made of the lack of the United States sending their top starting pitchers to the tournament. However, I'd say that the 2017 victory proves that USA doesn't necessarily need their best performing talent to field a winning team in these proceedings, although now that this team has transitioned from the hunting to the hunted (to borrow a phrase), I'm sure the pressure to repeat will be ever-mounting heading into 2021.

Jose De Leon checks in as MLB's #33 prospect pre-2017, while Jose Berrios was ranked #19 last year.

To evaluate Puerto Rico's pitching staff, we have to go over an additional level of color coding for my charts. On my database, I use the Bats/Throws column to denote roster status - while the majority of these players are on MLB rosters (no fill, and expanded to 40 players during the time of the tournament), light blue represents a non-roster invitee to big league camp (i.e. minor league starter Hiram Burgos, one of five holdovers from PR's 2013 team), while magenta denotes a current free agent (e.g. the aforementioned Angel Pagan, who is still looking for work at the time of this writing). The new color, gray, shows a player who wasn't on my database to begin with, due to inexperience or inactivity. This just goes to show that some teams in this tournament have to be more creative than others in finding players to fill their rosters.

The team's finals starter Seth Lugo is clearly the staff ace, even though he might start the 2017 season in the Mets bullpen, while superprospects Jose Berrios (another holdover, which means he pitched in the 2013 tournament at the tender age of 19) and Jose De Leon hold down the other two full-time starter spots. Manager Edwin Rodriguez used Hector Santiago, the Puerto Rican pitcher with the most accomplished MLB record, in an interesting and unique manner: as the designated long reliever for both Milwaukee Brewers youngster Jorge Lopez and seasoned veteran of both the Mets' farm system and the Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball league Orlando Roman. Edwin Diaz has the chops to be a top closer next year, Joe Jimenez has a bright future as a potential closer himself, and lefty specialist J.C. Romero will apparently never stop pitching.

CONFETTI MACHINE!

At left is a photo taken either before or after the victory comments that fueled a news cycle's worth of items - it's hard to tell since they were continuously spouting that confetti all during the festivities, much, I'm sure, to the chagrin of the Dodger Stadium grounds crew. As I've said, I like the WBC, regardless of what I feel about the 11th inning rule, which I do firmly believe led to a significant interruption to team Puerto Rico's karmic flow, when they had to use Rob Manfred's twisted brainchild of a rule to remain unbeaten in the semifinals against the Netherlands. And I sincerely hope that the words that were exchanged after the tournament don't lead to any bad blood. I'm nowhere near the level of the professional athletes who took the field for the WBC in the past weeks, but even I've had some heated interactions on a competitive sports field, then went on to have a perfectly healthy relationship with the other participants after the game was over, and felt stronger for the experience. Let's hope that each side of this argument learns something from the other and that each can benefit as a result of everything that's happened. I'm looking forward to 2021, and I know many baseball fans in all parts of the world are too.

Astrology Camp Battles: Leo

Leo is best known for boasting the number one overall ranked player in baseball this year in Mike Trout. But when you look at their top-three starting pitchers, you'll see the aggregate ranks of Max Scherzer (11), Madison Bumgarner (14), and Yu Darvish (41) are better than all teams save Pisces (followed closely by yesterday's profiled team Aries. Of course LEO will always be darkened by the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez from their ranks, but I say the best way to honor his memory is to focus on the game he enjoyed so much!

C
Evan Gattis (164) will likely spend the bulk of his 2017 season as the DH, which will not only allow him to focus on his offense more than the usual backstop, but also keep him healthier than if he had to squat in a crouch for nine innings every night. Speaking of staying healthy, Wilson Ramos (413) could replace Gattis if/when he returns from his torn ACL last year. But even before that happens, Austin Hedges (361) could make a serious impact in San Diego.

RP1 and RP2
The closing situation for Leo is completely up in the air and dependent on many factors other than the talents of those involved. The top ranked reliever on this roster, Carter Capps (326) didn't pitch at all in 2016, and the legality of his pitching motion has recently been called into question, leaving both Padres brass and MLB The Show 2017 programmers scrambling. The most effective closer in 2016 (Santiago Casilla, 462) will likely be setting up in Oakland next year. Brandon Kintzler (386) emerged as the Twins closer last year, but his opportunity to reprise that role will depend on the health of Glen Perkins (PIC, 449). Huston Street (438) could potentially reclaim his spot at the back of the Angels bullpen, even though Cam Bedrosian (LIB, 232) has the inside track. And Drew Storen (448) or Jake McGee (578) could pick up some saves in uncertain bullpen pictures in Cincinnati and Colorado, respectively. Pick any two of those and you should be good.

Astrology Camp Battles: Aries

I always thought there would be a certain poetic justice for baseball players born under the sign which includes the birth dates that usually encompass Opening Day to be especially talented. That has mostly been the case with the Aries fantasy astrology team, which boasts four players in the top 20, and 12 of the top 100, including the top ranked catcher in the MLB, Buster Posey (34), two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera (18), recent Cy Young recipient Corey Kluber (20), and the member of the offseason's most high profile trade Chris Sale (16). Let's see how the middle-back of the Rams roster shapes up this year.

DH (2B or 3B)
This is a straight toss up between Jason Kipnis (68, and 37 spots behind Daniel Murphy on the 2B depth chart) and Adrian Beltre (whose 75 ranking can't compete with Nolan Arenado's 5). Positional scarcity might come into play here: 3B is extremely strong this year, with four of the top ten ranked players at the hot corner. But these two were extremely close in stats last year, with Beltre having the edge by less than 140 total points. Another name to look out for is Carlos Santana, whose 138 ranking can't compete with the above mentioned players, but he could be a factor considering all the skill positions are already filled.

OF2
On paper, two center fielders - Lorenzo Cain (105) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (133) - and Rockies 2016 rookie sensation David Dahl (113) would make up a solid starting outfield for ARE (notice I changed the abbreviation to avoid confusion with ARI, which stands for the Diamondbacks in the real world). But with the latter of those three suffering through some injury troubles, the last corner outfield spot could be a toss-up (or platoon situation?) between lefty Jay Bruce (166) and righty Hunter Pence (176). Also, don't count out Dexter Fowler (192) if you'd rather have an all-CF alignment.

SS
There's not much of a competition here, but it is a good opportunity to discuss fantasy vs. real life. Adeiny Hechavarria is the lowest ranked starting shortstop in the league at 491. Alex Bregman (92) is more than capable of playing shortstop, with 128 minor league games there, against 53 at his 2017 projected position of 3B. But he likely won't gain fantasy eligibility at the position any time soon, due to the presence of Carlos Correa (VIR, 23) also on the Astros roster. I'm just saying, this team would surely benefit if this experiment were a video game simulation, rather than a traditional fantasy league.

SP4 and SP5
On paper, this rotation looks set, with five starting pitchers ranked within the top 130, including the #3 ranked top-three starter combination in the league, with Carlos Carrasco (67) joining Sale and Kluber. But the bottom 40% has some question marks. Kenta Maeda and Matt Harvey are within two ranking spots of each other (125 and 127, respectively), and while each has a tremendous amount of talent and competitiveness, 2017 will be just Maeda's second full season in the majors since coming over from Japan, and of course Harvey just had his second major surgery in the span of three years. If either of them falters, waiting in the wings are formerly elite Felix Hernandez (203 and a Cy Young of his own), potential ace of the Reds Anthony DeSclafani (199), and the solid but unspectacular pair of Jake Odorizzi (154) and Jeremy Hellickson (216).

RP2
This battle isn't even close if you go by the rankings: presumptive Mariners closer Edwin Diaz's rank is more than twice as good as White Sox trade bait David Robertson (72 to 147). But when you consider that Robertson more than doubled Diaz's career saves total in 2016 alone, you have to give the veteran some consideration in a format where traditional roles are concerned. Speaking of traditional roles, Dellin Betances (161), the poster boy for how said roles create a regrettable financial loophole for the establishment, is also in this bullpen, but will likely be sitting on the bench for the majority of the fantasy season.

Astrology Camp Battles: Pisces

An old baseball adage states that pitching wins championships, so it makes sense that Pisces is the only team other than Libra to come away with a fantasy astrology title, given that their top three starters are Clayton Kershaw (7), Justin Verlander (22), and Jake Arrieta (36), making them the only team to have three starters ranked within the top 40 players. However, it's also difficult to win a championship without any offense to speak of (and no, Chris Davis (59) and Jean Segura (58) alone aren't enough to carry a team), which is why the Fish have only won once in the last five years. Let's check out how they shape up for 2017.

DH (C or OF)
It's unusual to see a catcher competing for the DH spot, because a) backstops are usually more prized for their gloves than their bats, and b) the defensive necessities of the position make it rare for even a fantasy team to have two playable ones on the roster. J.T. Realmuto (151) has cemented himself as the starter in Miami, which leaves Brian McCann (218) as the highest ranked player to place second on a positional depth chart, and thus best suited for DH duties on paper. However, given how much positional scarcity might contribute to McCann's relatively high ranking, the Fish might be better off with power threat Jorge Soler (277), former speedster Denard Span (274), or even potential platooner Josh Reddick (311) in this slot.

2B or SS
The above-mentioned Jean Segura's positional versatility basically ensures him one of the middle infield spots, but which one and who takes the other are still somewhat up for debate. The rankings dictate that Segura should man short (where he will line up with the Mariners next year) with Devon Travis (231) at the keystone. But given the young Blue Jays second baseman's propensity for injuries, it could end up being just as effective to put Segura back where he spent most of 2016 with the Diamondbacks and have Didi Gregorius (289) serve as his double play partner. Only time will tell which alignment will prove the most effective.

RP_
RP2

The only relief pitcher who can compete with Aroldis Chapman (51) leaguewide is Kenley Jansen (38), and since he's a Libra, the Cuban Missile has a lock on the top spot here. But since the RP slot in fantasy baseball mirrors the arbitration process in that it's all about saves, for the next spot, we have we have to look at projected role rather than ranking or even talent level. Andrew Triggs (263) is the next highest ranked qualifying "reliever," but since he's ticketed for the A's starting rotation next year, I'm leaving him out of the running here. As far as actual relievers go, Hector Rondon outranks Fernando Rodney by 66 spots (332 to 398), but Rodney is almost assured the D-Backs' closer's role, albeit on a worse team than Rondon's Cubs, but at least he's not stuck behind newly acquired Wade Davis (89, VIR) in the saves pecking order.

Astrology Camp Battles: Virgo

When I first looked at these rankings in the beginning of February, I thought this might be the year that the Virgo Maidens could put it all together and make a run at the title. Circumstances have conspired to make this journey more difficult, so the players who emerge victorious from these camp battles could have a serious impact on the astrology playoff picture in 2017.

SP4 and SP5
I'm starting with pitchers because this rotation looked like a powerhouse around the time of the Super Bowl. Noah Syndergaard (21) is establishing himself firmly atop the pitching pantheon (as well as the Norse pantheon). David Price (44) will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder after a disappointing 2016. Carlos Martinez (82) was deemed valuable enough to recently get an extension from the Cardinals. Gerrit Cole (115) is an ace in the making who hasn't yet lived up to his full potential. And Alex Reyes (226) was just ranked as the number three prospect in all of baseball.

Flash forward one month later and Reyes is on the shelf due to Tommy John surgery and Price had an elbow scare of his own. While the Red Sox's second lefty ace looks to have avoided any major problems, his uncertain status could create an opportunity for some other pitchers lower down on the VIR depth chart. One of Gio Gonzalez (215) or Adam Wainwright (229) is assured Reyes's old spot in the rotation, with the other one able to step in if Price has to miss any time. Price's real life teammate Steven Wright (259) and 2016 postseason non-contributor Jason Hammel (260) are also waiting in the wings as depth options. It's still an impressive group, but the questionable status of some top flight talent could really hurt this team going forward.

1B
I mentioned how a hypothetical two-DH lineup would benefit the Capricorn team in my write up from last week, but Virgo would even more poised to take advantage of this particular fantasy format. Paul Goldschmidt (6) has a stranglehold on the starting 1B gig, but Joey Votto (26) and Freddie Freeman (27) are LITERALLY neck and neck to see who will back him up / play DH. Unless someone really steps up or gets injured in Spring Training, this veritable offensive love triangle will likely continue all season long.

OF2
Ian Desmond is slated as this team's opening day center fielder and George Springer (25) will likely gain CF eligibility pretty soon into the season. Gregory Polanco (61) is the best bet to occupy the third slot, but he was only two ranking spots away from Virgo having three center fielders patrol the outfield grass (Billy Hamilton, 63). If you're more into power hitters than speedy slap hitting types, there's also Justin Upton (79) and Adam Duvall (174) waiting in the wings.

C
One position where Virgo lacks a clear starter is behind the plate, where Nick Hundley (559) lost out on the potential for regular at bats when the Giants signed him to back up Buster Posey (34, ARE), and Christian Bethancourt (496) is firmly behind Austin Hedges (361, LEO) on the San Diego depth chart as he tries to make it as a two-way player. Catcher isn't typically that important in fantasy, so I don't see this as a major drawback for this team's chances.

Astrology Camp Battles: Cancer

I'm always optimistic about my "home sign" team the Cancer Crabs - which shares its names with two human afflictions that range from downright undesirable to potentially fatal. Maybe it would be more positive to call them the Cancer Decapods - look it up! Either way, I think this year CAN might just have the firepower to pull off a deep playoff run. See for yourself:

SS_
SS
Cancer has one of the most interesting shortstop situations in the league, given that top 10 talent Manny Machado qualifies for both SS and 3B. Right now I have Machado at the hot corner so that White Sox prospect Tim Anderson (242) can head up the middle infield, but if we put Machado up the middle, either Yangervis Solarte (248) and Eugenio Suarez (249) are ready to take over at third. However, throwing Trea Turner (12) into that mix, who played CF and 2B last year, but should take over at short for the Nationals in 2017, will quickly put this debate to rest, while also opening up a corner outfield spot for superprospect Andrew Benintendi (116).

2B

This is a pretty cut and dry case as whoever loses the battle between fiery Tigers keystone Ian Kinsler (71) and NL Batting Champ DJ LeMahieu (78) will unquestionably serve as the DH. But I'm mentioning it here because it's rare to see two such talented players at skill positions, which highlights the versatility and flexibility that gives this team the edge. And also it's just fun that these two are so close in rank, 

SP_

SP5
Wei-Yin Chen (249) currently leads the battle for the fifth starter spot between three lefties by 15 and 17 spots in the MLB.com rankings, respectively, and he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder, following some harsh self-criticism of his 2016 performance. Speaking not of shoulders, but of elbows, Tyler Skaggs (266) will be back for his first full year since a Tommy John surgery, and could make an impact on the Angels. But Jaime Garcia (264) and I share the same birth day and date, so I will always be biased towards including him in my lineups. Add to this group Robert Gsellman (315), a potential SP6 for the expanded Mets rotation, and Michael Wacha (325), who is almost assured a spot in the Cardinals starting five after the unfortunate injury to prospect Alex Reyes (822, VIR), and you have some decent depth indeed.

RP2

As of last month, Jim Johnson (269) and Brandon Maurer (337) would have been locked in a battle to see who would join Seung Hwan Oh (62) in the Decapods bullpen this year. However, since then, the erstwhile Padres closer has dropped nearly 50 spots in the rankings from 291 due to the excitement surrounding the new and even more unorthodox delivery of Carter Capps (326, LEO). His rank hasn't yet been affected by the fact that his "double drag-hop" strategy has just been ruled illegal by MLB, in an effort to prevent people from pitching like Smee from the movie Hook (shout out to FanGraphs commenter whiptydojoe in the above-linked article for the comparison). Who knows whether this rule change will also cause the talented reliever's  effectiveness to drop as well, but if it does, Maurer (no relation to the twins of the same estate) will be there to pick up the pieces.

Astrology Camp Battles: Capricorn

2016's runner up Capricorn Goats is the latest in a series of five separate signs who went up against the four-time League Champion Libra Scales in the finals. With both a Cy Young Award winner and league MVP on their roster, they have the top end to do it again. But will poor versatility be an issue when trying to maximize a one-sided offense? Find out below!

DH2
DH2
Have you ever played in a 2 DH fantasy baseball league? It can be fun to just load up on firepower at the top end, but I never really enjoyed it, because it's never something you'd see on the field in a real baseball game. But if there was a 2 DH Astrology league, it would be pretty sweet to see home run threats Edwin Encarnacion (43), Hanley Ramirez (83), and Albert Pujols (114) hit back to back to back... And especially considering all those Dominican born mashers would hit behind last year's NL MVP Kris Bryant (4). Unfortunately EE and HanRam occupy the only 1B and DH slots, but were there another available, Phat Albert would have some competition from Victor Martinez (184)

SP4 and SP5

With a top three in the rotation in the top 100 players in the game, you're starting from strength. When you consider that number jumps to seven starters in the top 120, and you realize there's bound to be some competition in the back end. I'm almost compelled to go by the numbers here, as former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel ranks 101 and recently extended Danny Duffy ranks 102. Consider also that these two aforementioned hurlers are lefties. The two RIGHTIES who stand next in line - Kevin Gausman (117) and Danny Salazar (120) - could both be poised for breakout years in 2017. 

I'm going Duffy and Gausman, on the strength that overall fantasy points total in a given season is the best predictor of future opint totals in future seasons.

Astrology Camp Battles: Libra

I'm modeling this new feature after one in MLB Trade Rumors about competitions for roster spots in spring training. Even though Astrology teams do not have spring training camps, because they are not in fact real teams, the same principle applies with regard to roster construction. And because it's a fantasy league format (12 teams instead of 30), the competitors should be of better quality than a typical major league team. However, because they are uniquely determined, sometimes you get competitors you wouldn't expect.

In any event, these battles could make for some interesting reading, when combined with full disclosure of each team's projected roster, mostly according to MLB.com's rankings, as of Not-My-President's Day. For the scoring, I'm using my archaic yet preferred small world fantasy points. I'm starting with Libra, winners of four out of the five fantasy astrology seasons to date.

Libra doesn't have a single camp battle for a position player. They're just that darn good. They've got two of the top 10 ranked players. Then it jumps to eight of the top 50, and 10 of the top 100. The only thing to say about this lineup is that if we were going by projected 2017 position rather than fantasy eligibility, the team would suffer greatly if Brad Miller (181) ends up ceding the Rays first base job to Logan Morrison (457, VIR), because next on the LIB 1B depth chart is Ryan Zimmerman (545 and trending down).

SP5
Is it just me, or does everyone seem to sleep on Tanner Roark (187)? Back in 2015 when the Nationals signed Max Scherzer (11, LEO), it was Roark who got bumped to the bullpen, despite a season of nearly 200 innings, 15 wins, and a 2.85 ERA? And now, even after an arguably superior 2016 season, he's getting ranked behind Lance McCullers Jr. (173), who only managed 81 innings over 14 starts last year due to injury. I'd pick Roark, who has a track record of solid performance, whereas McCullers has yet to perform over a full season.

RP2
Jeurys Familia (88) is far and away the best candidate to join Kenley Jansen (38) in the LIB bullpen over the course of a full season, but his uncertain status stemming from a domestic violence charge puts the beginning of his season in doubt. Until he comes back, Cam Bedrosian (232) likely has the best track to saves, as I have to imagine that Huston Street (438, LEO) will be on a short leash in Anaheim, whereas Tyler Thornburg (366) and Brad Ziegler (437) are now well down on the reliever pecking order in their new homes.