100th Post Spectacular: 2010-11 Off-Season Review

100 Posts, can you believe it? It seems like only yesterday that I started this blog with nothing but a concept and a positive attitude. And now look at it: pretty much the same as when it started, but with slightly more content in the archives. And now, with Spring Training less than a month away and with the last of the big name free agents having found a home, what better way to celebrate getting into triple digits than by kicking off a three-part series overviewing some of the biggest action that took place over the off-season.

The Baseball Off-Season is all about free agents. The market becomes flooded with them immediately after the World Series, and they generally represent the quickest way to add new talent without giving up any existing talent (not counting sacrificing draft picks for Type A or B free agents). But just as important as giving a new home to a player with wanderlust is holding onto your own free agency-eligible players. And although trades can happen at any time during the season, off-season trades have a somewhat different character - they are made with the idea of preparing for the coming season rather than bolstering an already-existing lineup.

So here is the first list:

TOP 10 NEW FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (+1 Extra Bonus Pick!)

Without using baseball-reference.com, could you guess who played the majority of games in left field for the Boston Red Sox in 2010? Now be honest, who here would have said Daniel Nava, the 27-year-old rookie who hadn't seen any major league action before last year? Doesn't sound like a starting corner outfielder on a championship caliber team, does it? Well it wasn't, but boy do they have one lined up for next year - and for six years thereafter. Crawford is one of the fastest players in the game, he's flashed some decent power, and he doesn't embarrass himself in the field.

But for the grace of God, Beltre could have been flashing his awesome glove at the hot corner for the Oakland A's, representing a massive step toward helping their fans forget the injury woes of Eric Chavez - just as Beltre's phenomenal 2010 in Boston helped his supporters forget his woes in Seattle. But instead he signed with the Rangers, a team who already had a perfectly viable third baseman (in Michael Young) AND who failed to re-sign their best starting pitcher.

Lee is the above-mentioned pitcher that the Rangers failed to sign - he was picked up by the Philadelphia Phillies in a surprising move, since many saw his negotiations as a two-horse race between the Rangers and the Yankees. That race has left both runners up clawing at each others' throats, while the winner came away with four staff ace-caliber pitchers (Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels). If there was any doubt about the National League team to beat in 2011, I'd like to consider that doubt dispelled.

He hits for more raw power than Crawford and draws more walks, but Werth is all but guaranteed to be nowhere near the 2011 playoffs, seeing as he's locked up with the perpetually basement dwelling Washington Nationals. I know Stephen Strasburg is on the way back from surgery and Bryce Harper is s'posed to be one heck of a hitter, but will Werth and his gargantuan contract still be around when those youngsters are ready to participate at the big league level?

You got to hand it to the Tigers, making a couple of moves to try and stay competitive in what could be a weak AL Central. Experts say that V-Mart will likely spend most of his time as Detroit's DH, although he does have the ability to play both catcher and first base. His value goes down a bit considering his production won't be coming from the game's weakest offensive position, but he might perform better without the physical strain that comes from playing behind the plate.

Soriano put up really impressive numbers as the Rays' closer, yet he will spend 2011 setting up for perhaps the greatest living closer ever in Mariano Rivera. Perhaps the Yankees committed too much cash for such a fungible position, and it seems almost wasteful NOT to have one of last year's most effective closers actually closing out games, but, as I've noted before, relief pitchers play a valuable role in their teams' success, and a deep bullpen never hurt anyone.

Dunn is a one-sided talent, but since he was signed by the White Sox, who already have an All-Star first baseman in Paul Konerko, Dunn won't even have to play the field at all. (He used to be an outfielder, but last year his manager finally gave up on sending him out there, opting instead to plant him at first base.) This is one of those picture-perfect scenarios: big hit, no field player signs with an American League team to finish up his career as a DH. They happen so rarely that it's a situation worth keeping an eye on to see if it actually pans out as planned.

This spot was somewhat of a toss-up between Uribe and Miguel Tejada. Both put up very similar numbers playing shortstop for contending NL West teams, but it was Tejada's poor play at third base for the Orioles during the first half of his season that gave me pause. Uribe is slated to play second base for the Dodgers in 2011 while Tejada should move back to short for the Giants, so Tejada has a higher expected value next season, but I think Uribe has the better chance to succeed.

Matsui will represent not only the best, but the ONLY power bat on a pitching-and-defense oriented Oakland A's roster. He hit decently in 2010, and as long as the A's keep him OUT of the outfield, he should be able to contribute more than he did last year with the Angels (he represented a full 0.4 wins BELOW replacement last year in the field). But perhaps more important than how he performs with the bat is whether "Godzilla" will attract more fans of the Japanese persuasion to attend games at the dilapidated Oakland Coliseum.

It seems like no former closers are being signed to actually be closers this year: lefty reliever Brian Fuentes will be setting up for former Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey. He excelled in this role with the Twins last year after spending the previous 5.5 years closing for first the Rockies, then the Angels. The A's bullpen should definitely be able to protect leads... if the offense ends up scoring any runs.

I added an extra spot for the O-Dog, and since he's signed for three years, this should be his last appearance on this list for a while (after two straight one-year deals). We'll see if he, along with new double play partner Jason Bartlett, can reinvigorate a San Diego lineup suffering from the loss of franchise player Adrian Gonzalez.

Next Time: A significantly shorter list, comprised of the best Free Agent Re-Signings... STAY TUNED!

Everything I Know about Salary Arbitration

We've just reached a very important day in the Major League Baseball off-season: That's right, you guessed it, it's time for players and teams to exchange numbers for Salary Arbitration! Yay!

What is Salary Arbitration, you ask? I'm very glad you did! In order to understand it, you have to know a little bit about free agency and how Major League contracts work.

The minimum salary for a year of service in Major League Baseball is around $400,000. (It was exactly $400,000 last year, but I think it got a little bump going into the 2011 season.) A player is not eligible for Free Agency until after six (6) years of service in the majors. But that doesn't mean players are stuck making a measly $400k per annum (plus nominal raises) for six full years - because after three (3) years, a player becomes eligible for Salary Arbitration.*

* There is an exception: If a player plays for two FULL years, he can become a "Super Two" player and become arbitration eligible immediately after his second season in the Majors. In 2010, only 20 players qualified for Super Two status. After 2011, barring injury, you'll likely see Jason Heyward (among others) achieve this milestone.

When a player becomes arbitration eligible, that player's team has two options: it (they?) can offer arbitration, or they can decline to tender a contract to that player. If the player is thus non-tendered, the player becomes a Free Agent (see Russell Martin or John Maine). A player can also elect free agency (see Casey Kotchman or Gabe Gross). I don't know all the details about/loopholes involved in this process.

If a player is offered arbitration and declines, he becomes a Free Agent, and the player's former team might receive some compensation in the form of draft picks (if the player in question has a high enough profile). If a player is offered arbitration and accepts, then the real negotiations begin. But before we hit the tables with the players, agents, GMs, and team execs, let's outline the actual process of an arbitration hearing.

In such a hearing, the player submits his ideal salary for next season: what he thinks he's worth (or what he'd like to get paid). Then the team makes a counter offer of a lower salary: what they think he's worth (or what they are willing to pay him). These two figures then go before a third party - an arbitrator - who picks one number or the other; in an arbitration hearing there is no middle ground. Thus there are clear winners and losers in the process and it fits in very nicely with the American concept of sport.

Let me make one thing clear: arbitration cases very rarely go to the hearing stage. The Cleveland Indians, for example, have not had an arbitration case go to a hearing in 20 years. They're generally pretty unpleasant and leave bad tastes in the mouth of both the players and the teams involved. For the most part, arbitration hearings hang in the distance like threatening storm clouds, lending an air of urgency to the negotiation period.

Because for the whole period of time between when a player is offered arbitration and when he files (i.e. formally submits his salary figures), he can negotiate with his former team. Actually, negotiations can continue even during the period between when he files and the hearing actually occurs. So more often than not, teams and players come to some kind of compromise before the law gets involved.

119 players filed for arbitration this year. Significantly fewer got to the stage where each side submitted numbers. It's hard to find a unified list of which players/teams are where in the arbitration process, but as always some interesting cases stand out as far as teams and players not being able to come to an agreement:

* AL MVP Josh Hamilton was not satisfied with the $8.7 million offered by the AL Champion Texas Rangers, asking for a whopping $12 million. Considering the Rangers avoided arbitration with outfielders Nelson Cruz and David Murphy, and pitcher C.J. Wilson, it's a shame they couldn't wrap something up with their franchise player. Either figure would be a significant raise over Hamilton's 2010 salary of $3.25 million.

* The Angels couldn't agree to a contact with their ace Jered Weaver, who led the league in strikeouts and games started. The difference between their respective salaries is less than $1.5 million ($8.8 proposed by Weaver, $7.37 countered by the team), but I suspect this is more of a grand gesture by a pitcher just entering his prime who wants to reap the most benefits out of his most productive years as possible. In a weak AL West, I'd say Weaver's worth at least what he's asking for.

* Similarly, Twins ace Francisco Liriano filed for arbitration, but the scale is a little smaller - he wants $5 mil, the Twins want to pay him $3.6. He's just about the same age as Weaver, and he had a solid season in '010, but it was his first time being adequate in almost four years. I'm sure both parties want to tread lightly and pray for no more injuries.

* Cubs closer Carlos Marmol, one of only 5 relief pitchers to top 3 WAR, also filed. I don't think the numbers have been published, but experts are predicting somewhere in the $4 - $5 million range.

Other key players whose arbitration numbers haven't been officially published: 2010's home run leader Jose Bautista, Milwaukee second baseman Rickie Weeks who had a breakout season last year, Baltimore's politically inflammatory DH Luke Scott, and rookie phenom starter Jaime Garcia.

I honestly probably won't update when new information comes out. At this point, we know all these players will be with the same team next year, now it's just a matter of deciding what they'll be paid. Don't get me wrong, it's helpful and interesting to have a handle on a team's payroll, especially in the middle of January when there's absolutely no other baseball news going on. But now at least maybe you won't immediately tune out when a sportscaster mentions "arbitration."

Relief Pitchers

Most Baseball games these days last 9 innings. Starting Pitchers during the 2010 MLB season averaged exactly 6.0 innings pitched per start. Closers usually only pitch one inning, and then only in close games where their team has the lead.

So who makes up for the rest of those innings?

You guessed it: Relief Pitchers.

Relief Pitchers inhabit that transitional space between when the starter can simply go no further and either a) the end of the game or b) the Closer is called in to protect a lead. They have no set schedule when they'll pitch. They have no set roles (save for LOOGYs and loosely-categorized "setup men"). As a group, they probably receive the least attention of any "position" in the game. And yet - since Starting Pitchers are showing no indication of becoming more like starting Quarterbacks - they play a necessary part for any team that hopes to be successful.

In 2010, the Year of the Pitcher, three dedicated relievers (Hong-Chih Kuo, Evan Meek, and Matt Thornton) were selected as All-Star reserves by the managers, which to me indicates some interesting recognition for Relief Pitchers qua position rather than just failed starters, or potential Closers who aren't quite good enough to close. Just as the position itself has an element of transience, many relief pitchers find themselves in that role as they're transitioning to or from a more defined role in their careers, which is reflected in the extremely high turnover rate among relievers from year to year. But that doesn't mean that particular pitchers can't excel in that role while they're in it.

Below is a chart of the Relief Pitchers who most excelled (according to swp) in 2010:

Only two dedicated Relievers scored over 20 points per game: Hong-Chih Kuo and Koji Uehara. Both of these guys spent some time as closers in 2010, each recording at least 10 saves, but neither pitched in enough save opportunities to get a CL next to their name. By the numbers: Kuo appeared in 13 of his team's 59 SVOpps (22%) - Uehara appeared in 15/62 (24.2%). As you may recall, my cutoff to qualify someone as a Closer is 25%, so both of these are extremely marginal cases.

As for the other two 1,000 point-scorers who didn't have saves to pad their stats (Tyler Clippard and Matt Belisle each had just one save), you can isolate three similar factors in their performances: innings pitched, earned runs, and strikeouts.

When you jump down to the next three, taking us through the 980s (Rookie Evan Meek, lefty specialist and future closer Matt Thornton, and Clay Hensley, bouncing back after a year off) we see some different trends. There's a wider range in innings and strikeouts, earned runs are still similar, but certain rate stats (namely H/9, HR/9, and BB/9) are almost identical.

But SWP are so variable, since there are many different ways to achieve the same "score" - even among players of the same position - that it's futile to try to find any kind of true correlation. Or rather at least MY efforts have proved futile. Perhaps more astute minds than mine will/would have more success.

So to avoid this pitfall, let's use a more reliable (or at least a more trendy) one-number statistic: Wins Above Replacement. Here's the top Relieves according to WAR:

A lot of the top guys in SWP are still ranked toward the top. But what, for instance, makes Daniel Bard so special that he's worth more "wins" than any of his compatriots while scoring so many fewer "points?" Thornton is within 0.001 points in WHIP. Clippard and Belisle have him way beat in strikeouts and innings. Kuo and Joaquin Benoit have lower ERA.

And what is it about Darren O'Day and Sean Burnett that make them more "valuable" than our 1,000 point powerhouses? What's the secret?

Do they factor in salary to the WAR equation? Seems like that's not totally intuitive or productive.

I suppose there's just too many variables. So many things go into evaluating a player's performance, and it only gets harder with such a nebulous position as Relievers, who basically only have one stat (holds, MAYBE inherited runner scored percentage) to separate them from their other more durable, effective, or specialized pitching colleagues.

But as long as starters continue the trend of not completing every game and closers don't all morph into multiple inning monsters a la Bruce Sutter, we're going to see plenty of action from Relief Pitchers. And until they go away, I will continue to show my appreciation by learning everything I possibly can about them.

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

With this eight-part series drawing to a close, I find myself ready and yet reluctant to let it fade. It's been great to give myself an overview of the best performers of 2010, but on the other hand, my left brain is so swamped with stats and numbers and rankings that it's hard to keep everything straight. I'll attempt to provide a little perspective along with the numbers when I present this "Best of the Rest" Wild Card lineup:

Wow, look at Juan Pierre's swp/WAR ratio: unsightly much? This is probably a perfect storm of one metric drastically overvaluing (probably due to steals being worth 30 swp each) and one metric drastically undervaluing (probably because of the lack of extra base hits, which we all know produce lots of runs). He was the AL's fourth highest scoring left fielder to Delmon Young by just 1 swp, which is funny because the best and second best (by far) left fielders came from the East and West respectively: Carl Crawford of the New Big Contract and Josh Hamilton of the MVP honors.

Like Pierre, John Buck was another "True Wild Card" candidate: fourth place in the league in terms of stats. The Twins' Joe Mauer was obviously the best, the Red Sox's Victor Martinez was next (although he will be playing next season with the Tigers), and then the Angels' Mike Napoli (who actually spent the majority of his time at first base... no one has to know...). Billy Butler was likewise the fourth best first baseman, but his case is slightly different because the four teams actually feature five first basemen: Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is #1, his runner-up, Paul Konerko, serves as the AL Central's DH, the Yankees' Mark Teixeira led his division, and Butler is sandwiched between him and the A's' Daric Barton.

Despite his Wild Card berth, Nick Swisher amassed the third best swp as a right fielder, behind Jose Bautista and Shin-Soo Choo, but just edging out Bobby Abreu in the West. Same circumstances for B.J. Upton, who again fell behind his Central and Eastern center field counterparts (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells respectively), but finished ahead of Torii Hunter (again from the West and again playing for the Angels).

It's deja vu all over again for Alex Gonzalez despite the fact that he split his time between leagues: behind Derek Jeter (Yankees, East) and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox, Central), but ahead of Cliff Pennington (A's, West). Aaron Hill somehow finished ahead of Orlando Hudson in swp (but behind Robinson Cano and Howard Kendrick), despite failing to crack even a single WAR. Much better choices would be Chone Figgins (1,364 swp / 2.0 WAR) or even the injury-shortened season of Ian Kinsler (1,351 swp / 2.7 WAR).

Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees was the third best third baseman, but like first base, he is out of five players of his position represented. Strange piece of trivia: all three of the AL's top third basemen came from the East: Evan Longoria from the Rays, Adrian Beltre from the Red Sox (East's DH), then A-Rod. Michael Young (who may be moving to DH to make room for aforementioned Beltre when the Rangers sign him), and Jhonny Peralta fell far short.

David Ortiz was one of two full-time DH's represented - the other being Vladimir Guerrero, an erstwhile right fielder. What's the difference between these two? The Red Sox picked up Ortiz's option whereas the Rangers declined Guerrero's. He remains unsigned at the date of this writing.

Starting pitchers are a little easier to rank because there aren't any positions to deal with; it's just straight stats right down the line. The top three Wild Card starters come from the West: Gio Gonzalez (A's), Colby Lewis (Rangers, late of Japan), and Ervin Santana (Angels). Gio would be the #2 starter for the Central and the #5 starter in the East - the only Wild Card starter to crack a spot in the Eastern rotation. Any of the next three (starter #4 is Toronto's Ricky Romero, representing the East) could pitch #5 for the Central team. The Wild Card's #5 starter, Matt Garza, is the lowest scoring pitcher to make it into one of these Divisional rotations.

Mariano Rivera's age seems to have finally caught up to him, as he only pitched well enough to be a True Wild Card candidate. Rafael Soriano (Rays), Joakim Soria (Royals), and Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz (Rangers) surpassed the great Mo. He narrowly surpassed Jonathan Papelbon, who had a rotten year by his standards. We'll have to wait and see if he can regain extra-human status next season.

Oh boy relief pitchers. I wanted to do a study on them specifically, but that's going to have to wait until after the imminent announcement of who gets into the class of 2011 of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Is it wrong that I'm more excited about these ultimately meaningless announcements than I am about the entire Football/Basketball seasons combined?