Hopes Fade as End of August Looms...

The other day, while sitting in an airport bar, I noticed a TV that was showing the Cubs vs. Padres game. Being a Dodgers fan, I instinctively hollered out "Let's Go Cubbies!"

Why was I drawing strange looks from passers-by? The Padres are ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West. It's totally reasonable to root for their opponents in hopes that the Boys in Blue might gain some ground in the standings.


But when they flashed the standings on the screen, I realized why people might not share my enthusiasm: the Dodgers were in 4th place, 12 games back of the division-leading Padres. At this point it doesn't matter how many games the Padres lose - with three teams and 12 games between them, the Dodgers aren't catching this year's surprise success story.

Then I realized it might have been the level of my voice that was drawing attention. There are acceptable times and places for vocal support of sports teams, and I guess the terminal isn't one of them. The last thing I wanted to do was to draw the attention of the TSA. I piped down and returned to my beer.

-

Come to think of it, my outburst of support for the Cubs was totally unnecessary and I knew it. I can recall exactly the moment when I was sure that the Dodgers' playoff hopes had died.

The date was August 12th. I was in the shower, when my girlfriend shouted in some news. The Dodgers had a 9-2 lead against the Phillies going into the 8th inning... and ended up losing the game 10-9. "That's it," I thought. The difference between 8 games and 9 games out of first place isn't significant in the middle of August. But momentum is. And to have such a complete bullpen melt down, on the day following a shutout, in the rubber match of a series against potential Wild Card rivals spells utter disaster.

Speaking of the Wild Card, the Phillies are currently embroiled in a cutthroat battle for the Wild Card lead - they're ahead of the Giants by one game and the Cardinals by two games. The Rockies and Dodgers bring up the rear at 6 and 7 games out, respectively.

While making up 7 games in a month-and-a-third is highly unlikely, it's not unheard of... the sticking point is all those teams between them and first place. Not only do the Dodgers have to play well, but FOUR other contending teams have to play poorly. While the races are too close and it's still too far out to start talking about "magic numbers" (or "elimination numbers" if you prefer) - all I can tell you is that it will take some combination of 35 Dodgers losses/Padres wins to eliminate LA - I can tell you that it's going to be a grueling uphill climb. Especially with the recent loss of Vicente Padilla immediately offsetting the acquisition of Ted Lilly.

We just can't catch a break!

The Great American Pastime in the Great American Ballpark

Visited another ballpark for the first time last night. And, in keeping with my longstanding tradition, picked up another miniature bat. This one represents the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds.

It was a big series for the Redlegs - at the start of Monday's game, they had a 2-game lead over the very team against which they were about to play: The St. Louis Cardinals. Mike Leake, as fantastic as his rookie season has been, had his work cut out for him facing All-Star Chris Carpenter. Monday also saw the Reds debut of centerfielder Jim Edmonds, putting him in the lineup with his former Cardinals teammate Scott Rolen. Channeling the past success of their rivals much? - Edmonds and Rolen won a World Series together in 2006.

I was late arriving to the city, so by the time I scalped a ticket and made my way inside the gates, it was already the top of the 2nd inning. No score. I was fairly starving, not having eaten anything since 6am, but I stood by the field long enough to watch Edmonds's first Reds at-bat: a hard hit line-out to center field.

Hot dog and beer in hand, I wandered around the upper level trying to find an empty seat. The ticket I bought was for way down the 3rd base line in the second deck, and I thought I could do better. Just as I settled in to a seat in my section (but 20 rows closer to home plate) the gentleman sitting behind me informed me that the people in these seats would surely return soon, they having just got up to get some food. Looking down at the bottles of water in the drink holders I realized he was right. I should have been more observant, but I just wanted a place to sit down and eat.

I moved across the aisle and chowed down during Leake's disastrous 7-run 4th inning. While watching, a kindly older fan sat down next to me and claimed mine and the surrounding seats, but said I could sit there until the rest of his party arrived. He told me all about how back when the Reds played at Riverfront Stadium, he would buy the cheapest seats in the house and gradually migrate down to behind the Reds dugout. "If a seat is open at a baseball game, you can sit in it!" was evidently his philosophy.

When his party did arrive, I moved on and decided to inaugurate a new tradition: drinking a beer at the highest point in the stadium. I trudged all the way to the very last row of the upper deck, just adjacent to first base, and enjoyed the view across the scenic Ohio river into Kentucky. These seats also allowed me a straight-ahead view of Albert Pujols at bat. He has a crazy batting stance, with so much power coming from his legs (his back knee is bent almost like a pitcher pushing off the mound) and his core area (notice how when he takes his practice swings, his whole body pivots; there's almost no wrist or arm action). His swing is truly a thing of beauty.

After picking up my mini-bat, a mini-chili-dog, and another beer, I headed to the field-level seats behind left field to heckle Matt Holliday a little. He made a pretty good running catch, but he couldn't stop the Reds from getting two runs back after the 7th inning stretch. Notice how in middle-America we sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" and only "Take Me Out to the Ballgame"... sometimes we even sing it twice!

For the ninth inning, after most everyone was shuffling out before the sure-Reds loss, I made my way to the field level seats next to first base. There I overheard a couple of older fans recounting a story of how some kid had confronted an usher after getting caught in a seat that wasn't his. Migrating is a fine way to watch a game, but you have to do it respectfully - keep in mind that it's actually not your seat by rights, and when confronted with evidence of the fact, you have to cede to its rightful owner. Or renter?

They shut up when Ramon Hernandez hit a home run and kindled small hope for a last second rally. But Kyle McClellan held on to shut down the home team. They didn't win. And it was a shame.

This mini-bat brings my total stadiums visited up to 14. Actually the criteria should be home games watched, since I've been to both Veteran's Stadium and Citizen's Bank Park but have only one bat to show for it. I'm ever so close to halfway there! I'd better hurry up before talk of contraction starts up again...

Trade Deadline: Recap

Wow, it sure was a whirlwind few days leading up to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadling, eh? Well, not really whirlwind, so much as somewhat lackluster. All the top starting pitchers went piecemeal in the weeks previous and only a couple of impact bats were moved at the deadline. Relief pitchers were easy to come by, but my guess is that very few of these marginal-type role-players will have a significant impact on any pennant races.

To begin, here's a list of all the teams that were involved in any significant player movement, from the beginning of the season up until the deadline. The list is sorted first, by total players acquired, and second, by the number of those players who spent significant time in the majors before their acquisition.

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Diamondbacks	12	5
Rangers	8	5
Royals	6	2
Pirates	6	2
Astros	6	1
Indians	6	0
Braves	5	3
Giants	5	3
Mariners	5	2
Dodgers	4	4
Nationals	4	0
Yankees	3	3
Blue Jays	3	1
Orioles	3	1
Red Sox	3	1
Cubs	3	1
Marlins	3	1
Athletics	3	1
Tigers	2	2
Angels	2	2
Padres	2	2
Cardinals	2	1
White Sox	1	1
Twins	1	1
Phillies	1	1
Rays	1	1

As you can see, the D-Backs, clearly in fire-sale mode, have acquired a ton of players - most of which are non-MLB prospects - with an eye to the future. We've all heard about the Rangers, who made the biggest splash of the bunch, acquiring perhaps the best pitcher in the majors, along with 3 new starters (catcher, corner infield, middle infield). The Rangers made a couple of win-now moves, getting a shortsop (before the deadline), a power reliever, and a backup outfielder (on Saturday). All 4 of the Dodgers' acquisitions are ready to step in and help the cause: Podsednik strengthens the outfield, Lilly projects to fill the 3 or 4 slot in the rotation, Theriot takes over for DeWitt at second base, and Dotel shores up a shaky bullpen.

Now for a conceptual exercise. I'm going to look at all the players moved since the beginning of the season, and make what I consider the best 25-man roster out of them. The swp is from before each player was traded. I'm not going to bog this list down with commentary, except for this one suggestion: Enjoy!

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POS	Name	swp	swp/g	Team 1	Team 2
LF	Scott Podsednik	1,198	12.6	KC	LAD
2B	Ryan Theriot	817	8.5	CHC	LAD
RF	Ryan Ludwick	908	11.8	STL	SD
DH	Lance Berkman	981	11.5	HOU	NYY
1B	Jorge Cantu	957	9.9	FLA	TEX
SS	Alex Gonzalez	1,045	12.3	TOR	ATL
3B	Alberto Callaspo	910	10.3	KC	LAA
C	Bengie Molina	378	6.2	SF	TEX
CF	Rick Ankiel	294	10.9	KC	ATL
C	Chris Snyder	578	8.9	ARI	PIT
IF	Christian Guzman	720	8.1	WAS	TEX
IF	Miguel Tejada	844	8.7	BAL	SD
OF	Austin Kearns	890	10.6	CLE	NYY
SP1	Cliff Lee	1,257	96.7	SEA	TEX
SP2	Roy Oswalt	1,080	54.0	HOU	PHI
SP3	Dan Haren	943	44.9	ARI	LAA
SP4	Ted Lilly	837	46.5	CHC	LAD
SP5	Jake Westbrook	634	30.2	CLE	STL
SP6	Edwin Jackson	557	26.5	ARI	CHW
SP7	Joe Saunders	507	25.4	LAA	ARI
CL	Matt Capps	1,189	25.3	WAS	MIN
RP1	Octavio Dotel	939	22.9	PIT	LAD
RP2	Kyle Farnsworth	468	12.6	KC	ATL
RP3	Kerry Wood	254	11.0	CLE	NYY
RP4	Javier Lopez	261	5.2	PIT	SF